TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Boromir88]

Werebear rule #214: Do not declare war with the wolves on Day 1.

[Lariren Shadow]

Song parodies for the win!

[Inziladun]

With both seer and hunter gone by Day 2, I thought we'd have it tough. I'd hoped the bear would be around long enough to bag a wolf for us, though.
The trouble I had the whole game was not finding someone who looked suspicious, but working out who looked the least suspicious. I could generally find points for and against everyone at any given time, until Sally practically stuck in her head in the noose. To Nog's credit, I found myself consistently thinking him one of the less likely wolves. To the point that I protected him twice!
As good as our lupine crew was, the not-so-innocent lovers made things much easier on them, to be sure. I like to think that in an extremity of savage hunger, the wolves devoured them in the end.

[Roa_Aoife]

I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that until the last Night, we never discussed working with the lovers. We did go back and forth over killing them, though.

On the very last Night, it wasn't so much discussed as the plan was drawn up for me to make the offer and the others to stay hidden till the end, and everyone else agreeing with it. There was never a "Should we or shouldn't we?" moment. Which made Fea's posts about our conversations very funny.

[Morsul the Dark]

Try not to get confused by the rules as someone else reads them. Also apparently looking at what other people say is suspicious...

Also to Fea you're right my math was wrond it wasn't a 1/272 chance of rewolfing in reality the Correct math is 3/68 less than 4% and apparently the probability was right though had he not acted suspicious in my opinion. so I got Two votes automatically....

[The Saucepan Man]

I'm planning a coup with you
That’s all we ever do
That’s all we ever dream
We’ll gamble everything

Meet me at the werewolf thread
See there o’er Night who’s dead
PMs typed by scheming hands
See the Lovers make their plans

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
All through the Day

I’m sending my thoughts to you
About yesterDay's clues
Let’s play the game our way
See if we can seize the Day

I could have hidden from view
See the lynch mob come for you
But we knew that it was time
Time to put it all on the line

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
All through the Day

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
To seize the Day

This is for Lovers
Scheming a way
This is for Lovers
Scheming their way
To end of play

For any who may not be familiar with the song that this is based on, it's For Lovers by Wolfman Pete (I kid you not ) featuring Pete Docherty, and its a lovely song.

[The Saucepan Man]

Wow! What a game! Very stressful, but very enjoyable. So thanks to everyone, especially the Moddesses and most especially my wonderful partner in crime, Fea.

Originally Posted by Nog

We have actually anticipated this moment to be wolves together for years - Roa and me - and were ready to stage a real show as the probability of the seer dreaming at least one of us early on was quite big. But then we got lucky and there was no need for it...

I think that you were helped here to an extent by Hakon's meta-reasoning. It looks like he was looking for those who Mira and Nienna might make Wolves and you two didn't figure on his list.

Funny how meta-reasoning works. Despite being fully aware that the roles were assigned randomly, my mind refused to accept the notion that Roa and Nog could be Wolves together.

Originally Posted by Boro

Werebear rule #214: Do not declare war with the wolves on Day 1.

Well, I agreed with your reasoning (although it was, of course, in our interests for Wolves and Bear to be at each others' throats from the outset). But, to be fair, you were not helped by Hakon here. I would be interested to hear from him whether he did dream of you. But, even if not, I presume that the Wolves thought that he did. Is that right Wolves?

Originally Posted by Roa

I'd like to take this opportunity to point out that until the last Night, we never discussed working with the lovers. We did go back and forth over killing them, though.

I'd be interested to hear why you didn't kill us, then. Was it purely the threat of our revenge kill, or did you want to preserve the option of teaming up with us? I did wonder when I saw that sally was not a Wolf whether you might decide to kill one of us that Night and take your chances. I also thought that, if Nog was a Wolf, he might be reluctant to do a deal, thinking it unsporting.

The origin of our strategy is fairly simple. We had a revenge kill, but there was no value to us in using it since, by that stage, we would have lost. It's value to us, therefore, was in its deterrent effect. But the only way to bring that to bear was to reveal. Of course, we could not do so while the Bear was around (since we might both be killed at Night and we could not win with the Bear anyway) and nor were we well advised to do so while the Village might consider lynching one of us. In any event, by the time that this option became open to us, we had little choice but to take it, since Fea would most probably otherwise have been lynched.

And Wolves, my assertion that we were confident in hitting a Wolf with our revenge kill was largely bluff (as you may have suspected):

Roa - You fooled me with what looked like genuine reactions twice - first when you backed off after suspecting me so strongly on Day 1 and then again with your reaction to our reveal, which I thought totally genuine. Was that all acting, or was there an element of frustration there? Later, I became increasingly convinced of your Wolfishness, particularly when Fea pointed out to me that the Wolves had a great opportunity to get you lynched on Day 3 and failed to take it.

Nog - I did suspect you in the first Day or so, because I thought you unusually aggressive. I didn't go against you, because we were actually looking to get innocents lynched in the first few Days. After our reveal, though, I started to become increasingly convinced of your innocence. Your reactions looked genuine to me and your (stated) analyses were along the lines that I was thinking (but keeping to myself). There was also an element of meta-reasoning here, as mentioned above.

Brinniel - You played a classic Wolf game perfectly. Relatively quiet, but vocal enough and with sufficient analysis to avoid too much suspicion. You were always in my thougts as a possible Wolf, but there were always others more prominent in my suspicions. Also, you and Nog played the Wolf-on-Wolf votes on McCaber perfectly, and that threw me off your trail a bit.

McCaber - I actually thought that you were one of those innocents that inevitably attract suspicion early in the game for acting inadvertently suspiciously. For that reason, I was quite happy to see you lynched, as we would then have got to the end game much quicker. On reflection, though, it was perhaps in our interests that the Wolves were at least one down by the time it came to conducting the negotiations.

Originally Posted by Fea

Also, Mira at least expressed interest in reading the Lover PMs. Sauce has them on file. I'm sure he'll oblige once he's awake and around.

I do, but they are at home, so that will have to wait. There are about 20 pages worth of PMs, but I can edit them down if anyone is interested.

Originally Posted by Inzil

As good as our lupine crew was, the not-so-innocent lovers made things much easier on them, to be sure. I like to think that in an extremity of savage hunger, the wolves devoured them in the end.

Well, we will have to wait for the narrative. But I always imagined that they would. As I said before, I saw the Lovers as not caring whether they lived or died as long as they were together.