WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Thinlómien]

I think the way Nogrod and Roa attack each other seems rather fabricated, so I'm assuming one or rather more probably both are wolves. Brinn, I knew they were in cahoots (I couldn't escape Nogrod's celebrations of that in RL), but I don't think that makes it improbable they could be fellows again (especially as Legate didn't play last time, but that goes already slightly meta). But really, if they were both innocent, why would they do this, with absolutely no evidence against each other and without recognising the baselessness of their accusations?

As for other stuff, I feel I can't quite get a grasp on the game. I suspect Nogrod and Roa, and Nienna and Mnemo a bit.

[Mnemosyne]

Okay, I think we all need to calm down and take some deep, cleansing breaths...

(Seriously, I can practically smell the testosterone.)

Am I the only one who's convinced that the current tiffs are just opinionated ordos going insane, and the real wolves are sitting back and practically rubbing their hands with glee?

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...

I am glad, however, that we no longer have the problem we had thirteen hours ago or so! At the very least Boro and Roa should be commended for their apt bit of pot-stirring.

Since we've been discussing wolf strategies so much (reasonability etc.), could we please try to look at things from other angles? What I'm thinking of is more of along the lines of IC versus OOC. With a good deal of us (that's where the strategy falls short--our beloved n00bs!) there's a huge paper trail for how they normally play as innocent villagers. I think that that's a much better indicator of wolf-hood than whether a person sounds reasonable or not.

Finally...

One simple request... could we try to get as many of our votes in as possible not in the last five minutes? Reason is our ally in Werewolf, and last-minute voting often precludes the possibility of its just exercise.

[Boromir88]

Speak of the scientist...looks like I jumped the gun prematurely on Mnemo.

[Inziladun]

Once again, to address this:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This means that the actually interesting thing to talk about are the reactions to him. I see three possible wolfish responses. 1. Agreement, in an effort to lead the village astray side by side with an innocent Boro, 2. Plain disagreement, putting oneself on the majority's side anticipating the general disagreement or going along with it now that it's there, 3. Maintaining the discussion, so that the village wastes time talking about things that don't matter.

1: none
2: Nogrod, disagrees without a fuss, which actually doesn't look very suspicious; Pitch's comment might be suspicious.
3: Inziladun, starting with "Huh?" and continuing; Nerwen, first merely picking up what Roa and Inzil said, then going into attack now (which would look innocent if her tone wasn't so darn sinister); Morsul made himself comfortable on the fence.

When I said this:

Originally Posted by me

Huh?

It was bedtime, and I really didn't get where Boro was going with that line of thought. But then, to say I was 'maintaining the discussion', when all I'd said was this:

Originally Posted by me

I see [Boro's] point now regarding Gifted survival strategy, and yes, that sort of thing has led to their being lynched. But I don't see any certain way of divining which we're looking at: a nervous Gifted, or a brash wolf. Do you have any ideas?

That's a reach, Mac.
And it really does look to me as if you were leaving the door open to raise suspicion on anyone who responded to Boro's comments.

I don't read much into Roa's misnumbering the wolves. It wouldn't get her very far as a wolf, in my opinion, and I think she's quite savvy enough to know that.

x/d with Roa and Pitch

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't read much into Roa's misnumbering the wolves. It wouldn't get her very far as a wolf, in my opinion, and I think she's quite savvy enough to know that.

As a matter of full disclosure, I did "mess up the numbers" last game when I was wolf. However, I wouldn't, as a wolf, employ the same strategy twice in a row. That would be obvious. And as a matter of fact, in that game, when I saw three other names on the wolf list, I had to double check the rules to make sure that I hadn't received a pm by mistake, because I was certain there were three wolves in the game. I was very surprised to find out there were four.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Roa and Nogrod could easily both be innocents. If so, they could be stoking the flames in order to gauge our reactions to the fight, or they could just as well be too stubborn for their own good.

Roa, Nogrod is not going after you solely because of that 3 wolf/4 wolf thing. He didn't like your reaction to Boromir's posts and he also is taking what you said personally (you called him unreasonable). He's got the idea in his head, and you're not exactly trying to appease him with gentle words.

Nogrod, if Roa is innocent then she is rightly baffled by your conviction of her guilt - as, I should think, most of us are. It was a very bold thing to say and now the village has to make a decision on it; if you had not mentioned conviction, we could easily have left this to simmer for a few days.

And now, I don't want to concentrate on these two any longer. There could be a villain or two among them but I don't want to make a rash decision in killing off one of the two most vocal players.

[Brinniel]

I almost forgot to vote! I'm a bit rushed since I have to run to class, but here we go..

The two people who stuck in my mind as suspicious are Nogrod and Nerwen. Nogrod's certainty over Roa's guilt seems a bit odd; why so confident on Day One? Whoever mentioned that his behaviour seems cobblerish, I agree. The problem is we don't even know whether we have a cobbler or not. As for Nerwen, she was very quick to jump on Roa's attack on Boro earlier; a very bandwaggonish move, which I find suspicious. So...

++Nerwen

Originally Posted by Lommy

Brinn, I knew they were in cahoots (I couldn't escape Nogrod's celebrations of that in RL), but I don't think that makes it improbable they could be fellows again (especially as Legate didn't play last time, but that goes already slightly meta).

Of course it's always possible...and it'd be almost funny if it did happen again. Anyway it seems quite typical for Nogrod and Roa to butt heads; though that does not necessarily point toward innocence or guilt.

[Pitchwife]

Talking about double standards, I also stumbled across this from Mac's first list:

Originally Posted by Mac in #27

Inzil says nothing that tries to look like something. Suspicious. Unfortunately, empirical knowledge tells me that I'm always led to believe he's guilty and then he's not.

The first sentence actually describes Mac's own behaviour in his two our three posts up to this point exactly. He's been more forthcoming in the meantime, but I'll have to look more closely at what he's actually saying.

[Pitchwife]

Looking at some of our quieter ones.
I'll give credit to Nienna (and to a lesser degree Lottie , as she mostly agreed with Ni)for their early effort to get the game started in earnest. It's not proof of innocence, of course; I could imagine a wolf wanting to appear eager and helpful so as to look like s/he cares about our best interests. On the other hand, it's no proof against them.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

He didn't like your reaction to Boromir's posts

Nope, by his own words:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Btw. I'm not too interested in you suspecting or just disagreeing with Boro. That's quite off the mark.

[Macalaure]

Inzil - defense convincing; off hook for now; needs to say more
Nogrod - very strange; cobbler theory possible; Greenie's point valid, though
Nerwen - maybe not sinister, but certainly forceful; all taken into consideration, not very suspicious now
Morsul - seemed strange at first; vote post, while accompanied with disapproved vote, looks good
Pitch - too quick with declaration of innocence; not sure anymore

Seem innocent:
Boro, Roa, Mnemo

No reason to suspect, but under radar:
Lommy, Brinn, Nienna, Greenie
(must investigate more)

Reasonable in limited posts:
Eomer, Shasta

???:
Sally, Lottie, Bes, trom
(haven't played with them (except Sally), so I wouldn't want to vote them right away)

Not here (or did I overlook her?):
Wilwa

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Fair enough, Roa, but my reading of Nogrod's posts #80 and #86 clearly concludes that he did not think much of your argument against Boro. He might deny this in #91 but it all adds up to why he's so strongly against you.

[Mnemosyne]

All right, I've got an hour before I have to vote.

I am not voting for Nog, Roa, or Boro.

Okay, that narrows it down to... 16...

I'd rather vote for people who have made short, choppy posts than longer, more analytical ones. Unfortunately there wasn't so much to analyze earlier in the day. Still, the simple restatement of rules that happened with Loslote and Nienna kind of rankled. At least banterers aren't pretending to be helpful. Enough to vote on, though? Eehhhhhhh...

On the other hand, Morsul is irritatingly confusing and often confused. Which he is (for me, at least) elsewhere on the thread. Voting him would be easy, especially considering his vote for Mac.

Mac himself I can't place, but he's been making points which is better analysis fodder for later in the game.

Eomer hasn't been saying much, but what he's been saying has been valuable.

I'd like to hear more from Pitchwife and Inziladun to get a better feel for both of them. May vote for them... maybe... Both of them just feel a little off at the moment.

I'd also like to hear more from Brinn, but she's been acting normal as far as I can tell.

Our newer players I'll let slide for toDay out of courtesy, but if trom doesn't post something about the actual game itself before dl I'm going to be ticked.

Nerwen has been feeling solidly Nerwenish.

Need to hear more from Lommy... I think she's valid in pointing out that Nog and Roa might be in cahoots, but I don't think that that alone is justification for lynching one or both of them.

Greenie feels innocent; for some reason I think that if she were a wolf she would be posting a lot more than she has been.

Shasta... I need more from you, please.

wilwa hasn't posted so I can't say anything about her.

And I think that's it for now.

[A Little Green]

Huh. Well, at least we have had plenty of discussion! (Though I have to agree with Mnemo that deep, calming breaths might be in order..) I intended to write comments on posts written in my absence, but it seems to have become a post almost entirely on the Nog-Roa-issue. I apologise.

Originally Posted by Nog

That was an intentional "mistake". It just has to be.

Originally Posted by Nog, underlining mine

As an ordo I know it. 'nuff said - meaning we're coming to the "uncomfortable zone" here and I'm not willing to argue anything as it's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for (which is actually just fair). Everyone can use their little grey cells though... and I suggest you all ordos do it and see it yourselves.

I don't get this. At all. It's possible that Roa's slip was intentional. I can't see why it's certain. As for the underlined part - he's basically saying "everyone who doesn't agree with me is a baddie". I don't like that.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But really, if they were both innocent, why would they do this, with absolutely no evidence against each other and without recognising the baselessness of their accusations?

My thoughts exactly.

Originally Posted by Boro, underlining mine

But I don't see anything wrong with Nog wondering that an honest mistake is less likely considering it wasn't something that I found terribly unclear nor uncommunicated by Legate.

I don't count saying "That was an intentional mistake" as wondering that a honest mistake is less likely, do you? Because I don't see anything wrong in wondering that a honest mistake is less likely, either. But that wasn't what Nog did.

Originally Posted by Boro

That being said, Nog do you really think wolf-Roa would purposefully state the wrong number of wolves? What does she gain from acquiring what will surely be lots of uneeded attention?

I thought the same - where's the point? She'll gain a very small confusion that is bound to be cleared almost immediately. She might have gained a status as confused ergo not wolf (faulty logic, by the way), but somehow that doesn't sound like Roa to me. At all.

Originally Posted by Roa

You may think that a cobbler Nogrod wouldn't go so far so fast, but I think he would- getting rid of one strong player, and forcing the village to lynch him on Day 2, means two days go by with out a dead wolf, and the village becomes significantly quieter.

The problem about the cobbler-Nogrod theory is that while I believe a cobbler-Nogrod would go far and fast if need be, it doesn't suit him at all to intentionally rid the village of a loud and active player on Day 1, probably resulting in his own death on Day 2. He'd love having a bit more fun with his cobbler role, and also calculatingly targeting vocal players for gain doesn't sit right with his strong opinions on sportive ww-playing.

Argh. Roa and Nogrod, you can congratulate yourselves on giving me a headache. Earlier toDay I congratulated myself on not suspecting Nogrod for a change. And what does he do? Start writing some completely insane stuff, and I can't see why he would say such things as a wolf or a cobbler or an innocent. And I don't understand Roa, either.

I'll write a list soon in order not to concentrate too much on Nogrod's crazy behaviour.


EDIT: x-ed with Roa, Eomer, Brinn, Pitch, another Roa and Mnemo. I like seeing people around. It's nice.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The problem about the cobbler-Nogrod theory is that while I believe a cobbler-Nogrod would go far and fast if need be, it doesn't suit him at all to intentionally rid the village of a loud and active player on Day 1, probably resulting in his own death on Day 2. He'd love having a bit more fun with his cobbler role, and also calculatingly targeting vocal players for gain doesn't sit right with his strong opinions on sportive ww-playing.

For one, Nogrod doesn't kill loud players when he's a wolf because he sportingly likes to get them lynched. And if he can lynch them early, well, he's done quite a feat. For two, he would totally use such a thing as an excuse to get revenge on me for that first game he referenced earlier. And it looks like he's having fun to me. I mean, I'd be laughing my butt off right now if I were in his position.

[Nogrod]

Well then, going through in order of appearance.

Originally Posted by Roa

My problem is that this is the ONLY point he has against me, and yet he claims that he is absolutely convinced I'm a wolf. The fact that he has to look for reasons to lynch me is evidence of the fact that HE HASN'T GOT ANY.

No. It's "evidence" of the fact that I will not use such reasons - but can't put them aside either as a decent villager.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't read much into Roa's misnumbering the wolves. It wouldn't get her very far as a wolf, in my opinion, and I think she's quite savvy enough to know that.

"Get her very far"? What do you mean? It would be handy for a wolf against D1 randomness, twisting the scales just that little to her favour if people were not sure (and she would be suspected). I think she's savvy enough to know that.

Originally Posted by Pitchie

Roa's number slip seems odd, but I think if she were a wolf trying to mislead us she would have chosen something which couldn't have been proved false that easily.

You're missing the point Pitch and honestly I don't get what you mean... It's not whether she's "proven wrong" with the numbers, but the image she's trying to convey of her not knowing the number of wolves around eg. meaning she has not been discussing the others last Night & not knowing exactly who the other wolves are.

Originally Posted by Greenie on me saying people could use their little grey cells

he's basically saying "everyone who doesn't agree with me is a baddie". I don't like that.

No. I'm saying nothing like that. I'm saying an ordo can use her/his grey cells and see. Being blind is not the same thing as being a baddie...

Originally Posted by Roa

I mean, I'd be laughing my butt off right now if I were in his position.

Which position might you be hinting at? So have you realised why I'm after you and speak the truth here?

If you mean the cobbler, sorry, you got it wrong. The cobbler is needed later in the game so suicidality is not their trademark early on. Heh Roa, no "seer-revealment" coming forwards. An innocent doesn't do that unless there is a real seer in danger from that innocent's POV.

Originally Posted by Mac

reading Nog's #80 and #91 right after each other, Nog is either confused, or twisting his own points.

I think a few of you have read my posts in an interesting way. What I said was that I didn't like the two (Roa and Nerwen) jumping on Boro's perfectly reasonable thoughts - like they were trying to make him look suspicious for that. And then I said:

Originally Posted by me

Btw. I'm not too interested in you suspecting or just disagreeing with Boro.

Meaning that it was the same to me whether they (well Roa at that point, so it's singular) say they just disagreed or suspected him as there clearly was an attempt to make him look bad (so whichever she claimed she was meaning bore no consequence to one's judgement on her - like anyone saying "I'm innocent" means nothing).


Blahh... I'm clearly lagging too far behind to ever catch you...

A short pause, then reading the rest that has come in and hopefully some actual discussion.

[A Little Green]

LEANING INNOCENT:

Boromir88 - Seems innocentish to me.

Eomer - Makes very good points. I felt like applauding on reading his post about Nog and Roa. As has been said, making sense should not automatically point to innocence, but this far I have nothing at all that would point the other way.

Brinn - I like what I've seen this far.

Pitchwife - Likewise.

Macalaure - Not suspicious.

Lommy - Seems genuine and makes sense.

NEITHER OR BOTH:

Inziladun - No idea.

Loslote - No idea.

Nienna - No idea.

sally - Too little data to judge her by.

Nerwen - I'm very unconvinced either way.

Roa - Aaargh. Her points on Nogrod seem a bit flawed, then again Nog really is acting oddly and I can't really blame Roa for getting suspicious of him if she is innocent. Lommy's idea of the two of them being wolves together is interesting but I'm not sure if it isn't too easy - actually, a wolf-Lommy would love to create an idea like that - and then again, Lommy gives me very innocent vibes - (WW-headache, here I come.)

Bes - Too little data.

Shasta - Deep under my radar.

wilwa - Hasn't posted.

tromkehra - Too little data.

WARY OF:

Mnemosyne - A slight beep on my radar. I'll check her if I have time. There's something in her tone and her way of popping in and being kind of active but not rubbing anyone the wrong way that I don't like.

Morsul - His vote was very ill-reasoned in my opinion. Of course it is Day 1 and he had to vote early, but I didn't like it.

Nogrod - Enough said, I think.


EDIT: x-ed since my last