WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[A Little Green]

Huh. Well, at least we have had plenty of discussion! (Though I have to agree with Mnemo that deep, calming breaths might be in order..) I intended to write comments on posts written in my absence, but it seems to have become a post almost entirely on the Nog-Roa-issue. I apologise.

Originally Posted by Nog

That was an intentional "mistake". It just has to be.

Originally Posted by Nog, underlining mine

As an ordo I know it. 'nuff said - meaning we're coming to the "uncomfortable zone" here and I'm not willing to argue anything as it's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for (which is actually just fair). Everyone can use their little grey cells though... and I suggest you all ordos do it and see it yourselves.

I don't get this. At all. It's possible that Roa's slip was intentional. I can't see why it's certain. As for the underlined part - he's basically saying "everyone who doesn't agree with me is a baddie". I don't like that.

Originally Posted by Lommy

But really, if they were both innocent, why would they do this, with absolutely no evidence against each other and without recognising the baselessness of their accusations?

My thoughts exactly.

Originally Posted by Boro, underlining mine

But I don't see anything wrong with Nog wondering that an honest mistake is less likely considering it wasn't something that I found terribly unclear nor uncommunicated by Legate.

I don't count saying "That was an intentional mistake" as wondering that a honest mistake is less likely, do you? Because I don't see anything wrong in wondering that a honest mistake is less likely, either. But that wasn't what Nog did.

Originally Posted by Boro

That being said, Nog do you really think wolf-Roa would purposefully state the wrong number of wolves? What does she gain from acquiring what will surely be lots of uneeded attention?

I thought the same - where's the point? She'll gain a very small confusion that is bound to be cleared almost immediately. She might have gained a status as confused ergo not wolf (faulty logic, by the way), but somehow that doesn't sound like Roa to me. At all.

Originally Posted by Roa

You may think that a cobbler Nogrod wouldn't go so far so fast, but I think he would- getting rid of one strong player, and forcing the village to lynch him on Day 2, means two days go by with out a dead wolf, and the village becomes significantly quieter.

The problem about the cobbler-Nogrod theory is that while I believe a cobbler-Nogrod would go far and fast if need be, it doesn't suit him at all to intentionally rid the village of a loud and active player on Day 1, probably resulting in his own death on Day 2. He'd love having a bit more fun with his cobbler role, and also calculatingly targeting vocal players for gain doesn't sit right with his strong opinions on sportive ww-playing.

Argh. Roa and Nogrod, you can congratulate yourselves on giving me a headache. Earlier toDay I congratulated myself on not suspecting Nogrod for a change. And what does he do? Start writing some completely insane stuff, and I can't see why he would say such things as a wolf or a cobbler or an innocent. And I don't understand Roa, either.

I'll write a list soon in order not to concentrate too much on Nogrod's crazy behaviour.


EDIT: x-ed with Roa, Eomer, Brinn, Pitch, another Roa and Mnemo. I like seeing people around. It's nice.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

The problem about the cobbler-Nogrod theory is that while I believe a cobbler-Nogrod would go far and fast if need be, it doesn't suit him at all to intentionally rid the village of a loud and active player on Day 1, probably resulting in his own death on Day 2. He'd love having a bit more fun with his cobbler role, and also calculatingly targeting vocal players for gain doesn't sit right with his strong opinions on sportive ww-playing.

For one, Nogrod doesn't kill loud players when he's a wolf because he sportingly likes to get them lynched. And if he can lynch them early, well, he's done quite a feat. For two, he would totally use such a thing as an excuse to get revenge on me for that first game he referenced earlier. And it looks like he's having fun to me. I mean, I'd be laughing my butt off right now if I were in his position.

[Nogrod]

Well then, going through in order of appearance.

Originally Posted by Roa

My problem is that this is the ONLY point he has against me, and yet he claims that he is absolutely convinced I'm a wolf. The fact that he has to look for reasons to lynch me is evidence of the fact that HE HASN'T GOT ANY.

No. It's "evidence" of the fact that I will not use such reasons - but can't put them aside either as a decent villager.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't read much into Roa's misnumbering the wolves. It wouldn't get her very far as a wolf, in my opinion, and I think she's quite savvy enough to know that.

"Get her very far"? What do you mean? It would be handy for a wolf against D1 randomness, twisting the scales just that little to her favour if people were not sure (and she would be suspected). I think she's savvy enough to know that.

Originally Posted by Pitchie

Roa's number slip seems odd, but I think if she were a wolf trying to mislead us she would have chosen something which couldn't have been proved false that easily.

You're missing the point Pitch and honestly I don't get what you mean... It's not whether she's "proven wrong" with the numbers, but the image she's trying to convey of her not knowing the number of wolves around eg. meaning she has not been discussing the others last Night & not knowing exactly who the other wolves are.

Originally Posted by Greenie on me saying people could use their little grey cells

he's basically saying "everyone who doesn't agree with me is a baddie". I don't like that.

No. I'm saying nothing like that. I'm saying an ordo can use her/his grey cells and see. Being blind is not the same thing as being a baddie...

Originally Posted by Roa

I mean, I'd be laughing my butt off right now if I were in his position.

Which position might you be hinting at? So have you realised why I'm after you and speak the truth here?

If you mean the cobbler, sorry, you got it wrong. The cobbler is needed later in the game so suicidality is not their trademark early on. Heh Roa, no "seer-revealment" coming forwards. An innocent doesn't do that unless there is a real seer in danger from that innocent's POV.

Originally Posted by Mac

reading Nog's #80 and #91 right after each other, Nog is either confused, or twisting his own points.

I think a few of you have read my posts in an interesting way. What I said was that I didn't like the two (Roa and Nerwen) jumping on Boro's perfectly reasonable thoughts - like they were trying to make him look suspicious for that. And then I said:

Originally Posted by me

Btw. I'm not too interested in you suspecting or just disagreeing with Boro.

Meaning that it was the same to me whether they (well Roa at that point, so it's singular) say they just disagreed or suspected him as there clearly was an attempt to make him look bad (so whichever she claimed she was meaning bore no consequence to one's judgement on her - like anyone saying "I'm innocent" means nothing).


Blahh... I'm clearly lagging too far behind to ever catch you...

A short pause, then reading the rest that has come in and hopefully some actual discussion.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

"Get her very far"? What do you mean? It would be handy for a wolf against D1 randomness, twisting the scales just that little to her favour if people were not sure (and she would be suspected). I think she's savvy enough to know that.

Would Roa really expect her innocence would appear more likely to us just because she seemed ignorant of the wolves' numbers? As she herself noted, that was done by her recently, and would be that much less believable in this case for that reason. I'm not saying she's innocent, mind, but that 'slip' alone is not very noteworthy to me.

x/d with Greenie and Eomer

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

That was an intentional "mistake". It just has to be.

So Roa tried to mislead us about her knowledge of the situation - and I can't see a reason what a gifted Roa would gain from that against the wolves at Nights as they would not start thinking she's someone they can afford to ignore from that. But a wolf-Roa might gain the edge in a possible tight voting if people thought she was not up to the situation...

Point against Nogrod. I don't see why something that could have just as easily been an honest mistake (and probably was - did anyone besides me see the very-last minute dropping and adding of people? First there were three wolves, then four, then three again, then four again, etc. ad.) has to be the be-all and end-all, Roa's guilty, case closed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

As an ordo I know it. 'nuff said - meaning we're coming to the "uncomfortable zone" here and I'm not willing to argue anything as it's one of those things a player is not allowed to produce evidence for (which is actually just fair). Everyone can use their little grey cells though... and I suggest you all ordos do it and see it yourselves.

Point against Nogrod. You can't know anything definitively as an ordo, anyway, and if you're (as I suspect you are) referring to the actual text of the ordo role PM, that's A) metagaming and rather unsavory in and of itself and B) highly inconclusive in any case.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Aye, Nogrod, soon as I saw Roa's counting-mistake I remarked: "intentional". Not sure what it means, though. I wouldn't be quick to lynch Roa because she brings a lot to the table in terms of discussion.

I wouldn't go so far as to say this is a point against Eomer, but the way he subtly backs up Nogrod by agreeing with him and not really contributing to the conversation other than that strikes me as mildly strange.

Originally Posted by Roa

What? Huh? Really? First, you spend your posts using in character banter, and now you decide I'm guilty on a number slip? With all do respect, are you on something? This is the most ridiculous thing I've seen yet.

Point for Roa. This reaction seems innocent to me (in fact, it's probably how I'd react in the same situation. )

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I must agree that questioning after Boro's "gifted talk" was a bit odd - as Boro talked sense. And it was first Roa and Nerwen who made the questions - and they are two players who should really understand what Boro was saying! As a rule of thumb (which can be broken of course in individual cases) gifted needs to look a bit suspicious so that the wolves think they can get her/him lynched and don't "waste" their Nightkill on that person.

Accidentally (?) it was also Nerwen who popped up to suggest defences for Roa after I voiced my trouble wth her. So a piece of bold team-work?

Point against Nogrod. What makes "sense" to you may not necessarily make "sense" to someone else. Also, an immediate declaration of Nerwen being Roa's teammate, as her first defender. Wild accusations on flimsy evidence? Not what I'm used to seeing from Nogrod...

Originally Posted by Roa

What Boro said didn't make sense- he said that wolves are reasonable that gifteds aren't, implying that we ought to be lynching the reasonable ones. (By the way, you most certainly do NOT fall into that category.) Reasonableness is a terrible reason to lynch someone. Yes, the gifted need to be somewhat suspected to live, but it's not our job to worry about them.

Now who's trying to continue the debate? Oh, that would be you. By carrying on about the gifted an what they're doing, you are giving pointers to the wolves about how to spot gifted, and you're distracting the village from doing actual wolf-hunting. Not to mention the whole idea of what Boromir says discourages us from voting for people that we find suspicious for fear that they may be gifted, something that you seem keen to press on everyone while at the same time coming up with ludicrous suspicions that have no merit, further distracting the village.

Mmm... point for Roa. However, firstly, I don't recall Boro ever saying "wolves are reasonable, gifteds aren't" - I believe the point was that we shouldn't dismiss someone from suspicion just because they're reasonable. The second part of the above quote seems to me like "Me? Oh yeah, well you..." This reaction, while not the best and seeming odd (I see a bit of "Nogrod suspects Roa, so Roa suspects him right back" thing going on) has the same tone as her previous post, that of indignant ordo.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Am I on something? Well I am actually on bagging us a wolf. And am pretty serious about it.

...

I see there a reasonable remainder that we easily lynch gifteds as they need to look a bit suspicious in general (an especialy more inexperienced players may actually be a little nervous overreacting to things and thus look guilty, that can happen to a veteran as well) - and that wolves playing reasonable are easily slipping under our radars early on. To me that doesn't imply we should lynch the reasonable ones but to be careful / to remember there is this side as well.

Point for Nogrod. I believe this to be a more accurate representation of what Boro actually said/meant... that said, I still don't think a different point of view to be a sign of wolvery.

Originally Posted by Roa

The only one doing that is you. I never suspected Boromir, I only disagreed with him. You're the one turning this into a huge deal and carrying on with it. Not to mention the whole number slip thing. That's not making a mountain out of a molehill?

A reasonable reminder of what, exactly, Nogrod? That we don't want to lynch gifteds? Well, duh, we all know that. What do you make of the second part of his statement? That wolves slip by on reasonableness? How do you take that?

I'm unsure what to think here. On the one hand, it's the same indignant Roa whom I feel to be innocent based on her reaction. On the other, it seems as if she disagrees with Boro about wolves being able to slip by on being reasonable (if I'm wrong, please correct me) and I can't figure out why.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Btw. I'm not too interested in you suspecting or just disagreeing with Boro. That's quite off the mark.

...

But to be honest. It actually is, at least in part, meta-reasoning and I said so earlier talking about an "uncomfortable zone". I'm convinced of her guilt and can't / shouldn't act otherwise. But I'm not going to state anything more on that side of the issue but will continue trying to find any other things there could be (in a few hours as I now have to get off for a while).

Point, point, point against Nogrod. Are you saying all that you have to convince you of Roa's guilt is the fact that she said "three" instead of "four"? Also, saying that you won't state anything more on the metagaming side of the issue is like saying "Roa is evil, but the rules prevent me from telling you why." If you legally can't say anything, you never should have brought it up - all it's been is a big distraction.

Originally Posted by Roa

I am now convinced that the secret role is the cobbler, and Nogrod is it. He's clearly hinting at being the seer, which the seer Nogrod wouldn't do, because he knows better than to do something so risky. Further more, he can't be the seer, because he most certainly wouldn't attack me like this if he was. Make no mistake, this is a cobbler planning a false reveal.

Point against Roa. Much as I think she's innocent, this theory is quite a stretch. Firstly, there is no Seer, so telling us what the seer-Nogrod would or wouldn't do is pointless. Secondly, saying that he can't be the Seer because he wouldn't attack you if he was, while probably true from your point of view, is unprovable/has no meaning for the rest of us. Unless you're trying to say that the secret role is in fact a cobbler, Nogrod received it, and is planning to reveal himself as the secret role-Seer (which makes no sense because as soon as you died we'd go after him, thus rather a waste of a secret role), I don't see where you're coming from.

Originally Posted by Eomer

Roa and Nogrod could easily both be innocents. If so, they could be stoking the flames in order to gauge our reactions to the fight, or they could just as well be too stubborn for their own good.

Roa, Nogrod is not going after you solely because of that 3 wolf/4 wolf thing. He didn't like your reaction to Boromir's posts and he also is taking what you said personally (you called him unreasonable). He's got the idea in his head, and you're not exactly trying to appease him with gentle words.

Nogrod, if Roa is innocent then she is rightly baffled by your conviction of her guilt - as, I should think, most of us are. It was a very bold thing to say and now the village has to make a decision on it; if you had not mentioned conviction, we could easily have left this to simmer for a few days.

And now, I don't want to concentrate on these two any longer. There could be a villain or two among them but I don't want to make a rash decision in killing off one of the two most vocal players.

There are one or two things I find strange about this post, but I'm finding it very hard to articulate them... for now, calling it a "general area of bad feeling".



So right now, having typed this beast up before Nogrod's latest post (in which he clears up some ambiguities), I would: rather not vote for Nogrod, but will if I see no other option/someone I think to be "more innocent" (that's not the correct term but it's slipped my mind at the moment) is up for execution; not vote for Roa at this time, and; would be willing to vote for Eomer.

X'd with Bes.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Greenie

by implying an ordo should see what you see is basically the same as implying that a person who doesn't see what you see is not an ordo. Get the point?

No I do not get it.

Basic logic: from "if A then B"... you can't deduce "if notB then notA".

Well, it seems Shasta has come back with dedication... *goes to read*

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No I do not get it.

Basic logic: from "if A then B"... you can't deduce "if notB then notA".

Well, it seems Shasta has come back with dedication... *goes to read*

Let me help.

"Any ordo would be able to see what I see. You don't see what I see? Hmm... that must make you... not an ordo."

How about now?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Clarification - it wasn't the deduction, it was the inference.

Hope that helps. I did some translation work a while back - Nerwen can vouch.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

"Any ordo would be able to see what I see. You don't see what I see? Hmm... that must make you... not an ordo."

How about now?

Nope... Sorry. Even if you call it just an inference.

I never said that any ordo automatically sees it, but anyone could.

'nuff said.

[A Little Green]

LEANING INNOCENT:

Boromir88 - Seems innocentish to me.

Eomer - Makes very good points. I felt like applauding on reading his post about Nog and Roa. As has been said, making sense should not automatically point to innocence, but this far I have nothing at all that would point the other way.

Brinn - I like what I've seen this far.

Pitchwife - Likewise.

Macalaure - Not suspicious.

Lommy - Seems genuine and makes sense.

NEITHER OR BOTH:

Inziladun - No idea.

Loslote - No idea.

Nienna - No idea.

sally - Too little data to judge her by.

Nerwen - I'm very unconvinced either way.

Roa - Aaargh. Her points on Nogrod seem a bit flawed, then again Nog really is acting oddly and I can't really blame Roa for getting suspicious of him if she is innocent. Lommy's idea of the two of them being wolves together is interesting but I'm not sure if it isn't too easy - actually, a wolf-Lommy would love to create an idea like that - and then again, Lommy gives me very innocent vibes - (WW-headache, here I come.)

Bes - Too little data.

Shasta - Deep under my radar.

wilwa - Hasn't posted.

tromkehra - Too little data.

WARY OF:

Mnemosyne - A slight beep on my radar. I'll check her if I have time. There's something in her tone and her way of popping in and being kind of active but not rubbing anyone the wrong way that I don't like.

Morsul - His vote was very ill-reasoned in my opinion. Of course it is Day 1 and he had to vote early, but I didn't like it.

Nogrod - Enough said, I think.


EDIT: x-ed since my last