WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Pitchwife]

Wow, a gifted reveal again. These Days, hardly a game would be complete without one or two, it seems. I must say I expected some more glamorous secret role, but that's a matter of taste, not an argument.
I think I can understand Lottie's reveal. YesterDay's bandwagon came rather late in the Day, she couldn't be sure it wouldn't happen again, and not knowing for sure whether she would be able to come back later toDay, she didn't want to take the risk of losing her chance to dream. Especially as it's her first time as a Gifted, she'd be anxious to do it right.
Anyway, I also think we can rule out the possibility that she's wolvish. Supposing yesterDay's Lottie-wagon was fueled by one or more wolves trying to save Mnemo, as seems likely, does anybody really think they would have put up another packmate as the alternative candidate?
So, let's give Lottie her chance, I think it'll do us good.
(I guess I'm hardly the first to say any of this, but nevermind. And for once, I'm letting it stand without any qualifiers and on-the-other-hands; it'll take some practice, but maybe I can make that a habit.)

[Pitchwife]

Following what I've just said, Bes's vote right now looks more than suspicious. I mean, even if you doubt her reveal was well-reasoned, there's that other argument against her being a wolf. And who would want to get a potential Seer out of the way before they can have a dream?
I also don't get this:

Originally Posted by Bes

If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

OK, the Ranger could, so to speak, 'waste' a protection on her toNight while the wolves kill somebody else, but why would that prevent the Ranger from protecting a hypothetical 'real seer' if such comes out later? Not mentioning that Ranger can't defend anybody against a lynch, only Night-kills.
Or do you mean her reveal could be an attempt to make the Ranger reveal as well, so the wolves can kill them? I don't see how - if the Ranger has any sense, they'll know to stay hidden. This looks totally fabricated.

[satansaloser2005]

I'll agree with Pitch. There's no reason the ranger would reveal right now (unless of course they were waggoned on) because there's no false ranger reveal. So there's no reasoning as such behind Lottie revealing in order to catch the ranger. A potential seer, yes, but not the ranger. The question is, is Bes making this argument because he's evil (in which case I think Lottie would be innocent) or because he's just the new kid on the block? I've no idea, but the entire affair smells to me, no matter which party/parties may be evil.

[satansaloser2005]

We could lynch Nog. It'd certainly make his special day all that more memorable.


Yes, I'm kidding.

*goes off to re-read the thread*


EDIT: x'd with Boro

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

I'm starting to distrust his "Mr. Agreeable" manner (sorry Pitch, it's just such a funny name! )

You know what, I'll consider this as a potential personal title if I become eligible some day.
(And I realize I sort of asked for this on Day 1. The bed that you make, etc.)

[satansaloser2005]

Really, I think the whole Lottie reveal situation is snowballing.

EDIT: x'd with Lommie. Is there a particular reason you keep saying "cathegory"?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

EDIT: x'd with Lommie. Is there a particular reason you keep saying "cathegory"?

Am I over-using the word or misspelling it or misusing it?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Am I over-using the word or misspelling it or misusing it?

Well it may be a language thing; here it's spelled 'category'. I didn't know if it was random or it you were somehow trying to be extra-clever.

*pets you*

And Nog, darling, yes I know the direction. Away from me.


Now then, time to catch up again. My boss has shown up so I'll have to be short and sweet (as usual) but I'll be here.


EDIT: x'd with Nienna

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Well it may be a language thing; here it's spelled 'category'. I didn't know if it was random or it you were somehow trying to be extra-clever.

*pets you*

Next time I'll spell it KaTheGory...

Originally Posted by Boro

Well, if you were in sally's position right now, would you want to be lynched?

No, not really. But I wouldn't probably start being enthusiastic about any possible lynch candidate; only about the ones that would seem reasonable to me. On the other hand, now that I think of it, I don't have anything against the current trend os suspicion... But I still think Sally's trying a bit too hard to be nice and be spared.


edit: xed with Mac and Nienna

[Nienna]

I'm here. Wilwa's vote for me looks opportunistic and worries me. I'm still wary of Lommy. I'm starting to get wary of Eomer. So a list:

Definitely Not a Wolf:
Nienna

Probably Not a Wolf:
Greenie
Lottie
Nerwen
Bes
Morsul
Sally
Brinn

Could Go Either Way:
Boro
Pitch
Mac
Shasta
Nogrod

Probably a Wolf:
Lommy
Eomer
Wilwa

Edit: Crossed.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Nog

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

Yeah... about that... I think that at the time I thought there were more people who voted for Lottie than there really were and when I went back over the list I realized that. I was being hasty. I apologize.

[Pitchwife]

Nienna:
- dislike her vote on Day 1
- felt better about her during Day 2 (no further incriminating evidence until voting)
- doubtful again toDay. Don't quite see where her suspicion of Lommy comes from, but I still think Lottie would have been a better choice for a wolf wanting to save Mnemo.

So if we leave Bes for toMorrow, it's rather one of the Lottie-voters. Since what I said in my last about Brinn depends on whether Nienna's a wolf or not, and I'm uncertain about Morsul, that leaves
++sally

EDIT: x-ed with Boro and Mac

[Macalaure]

I have no reason to doubt Lottie's reveal. If she was a wolf, then the fact that she revealed right away points toward it being a planned night plot, and not born out of sincere fear of being lynched. (Although she did have to vote early, so a certain fear is understandable.) She was second in line yesterday, but it is not uncommon at all that when a wolf is lynched, the second in line is let off the hook, at least for a day or two. To the wolves, there would have been every reason to be optimistic about Lottie's survival today, at the very least enough to wait and see how the day goes, so this plot is highly improbable.

Apart from that, her tone just doesn't sound like it's a false reveal. It's pretty much embedded in between several posts of analysis, and without the bolding part, you might even easily overlook the post. A wolf would have made more noise.

There are possible scenarios under which a Lottie-wolf would be plausible, but we will get there soon enough. Let her have her dream and then we'll see. It's not like there aren't enough wolves left.

Don't confuse the ranger now, folks. If Lottie is a wolf, the wolves have one night in which they needn't worry about him, if she is the seer, he will enable her to her dream. If that's not worth the risk, then I don't know.


A lot of comments and ideas I wrote down while reading:

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'd bet that there are at least 2 wolves in her wagon.

Since Inzil is dead, two out of Brinn, Morsul, and Sally are wolves. Possible, but quite a bold statement.

The one thing that makes me shy away from suspecting Nienna and Shasta too much, is that a) her votes yesterDay are sketchy, but not conclusively evil, and b) if they wanted to save Mnemo, why did they go for Inzil and not me? Both only really makes evil sense if Lottie and I are wolves, too, the latter of which I know is not the case and the former of which I highly doubt.

I had forgotten about Mnemo's "Roa and Nog are both innocent". Makes Nog look a bit worse.

Brinn's posts toDay make sense. I'm less suspicious of her now.

Boro makes so much sense, it's gotta hurt. I like his case against Wilwa.

Originally Posted by Sally

Your opinion's got a pretty wide range there doesn't it, Mac?

Umm, yes? That's what I stated. That's what's been confusing me.

Sally's analysis of Lottie has me baffled. She suspects her very strongly, but then wants to save her til tomorrow. The conclusion could be lip service, and wolf-Sally is just fishing for support while trying to avoid scorn, or she's trying to discredit Lottie's dream in advance. In any case, why would an innocent make such a huge post about someone who's lynching is not urgent? Why not just state your distrust briefly with a few points and move on?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mac, do you see a pattern: almost anyone who votes you or suspects you is suspicious to you? You should know better...

Haven't paid attention to that. I believe I'm usually quite objective about people who disagree with me. It's the people who agree with me that I fall for. Anyway, hasn't anything to do with that. My thoughts are already muddled enough right now.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And the Ranger thing isn't guaranteed, what if the Ranger protected Lottie last Night, or we lynch the Ranger today by accident?

I'd say it's very unlikely the ranger protected Lottie last night. We can't lynch the ranger by accident unless we lynch someone who isn't available at the deadline. The ranger will reveal and the wolves have no choice but to kill him, since he will still protect Lottie.

Wilwa and Sally are sounding all the alarms at the moment. Problem: if I throw in Nogrod, my next best suspect, this is the list of people who have been doubting Lottie most, and there is no way all three wolves would go that way. One single dream just isn't that dangerous.

Originally Posted by Brinn

The wolves don't need to create this whole bandwagon to get her lynched; sometimes all they need to do is give a gentle nudge and the village will take the bait.

Sometimes they don't even need to do that.

Secret role = modified wolf? Five wolves in a village of 20 with 2 innocent dropouts? Nonsense. *shakes head*

One tip for Lottie. It's not always the best idea to pick your best suspect to dream of, especially since Bes didn't have a whole lot of interaction with other villagers. A villager that's involved in the discussion is more valuable, since his/her role will shine a light on other people's roles, too - and in both cases, guilt and innocence. A guilty Bes (just keeping him as an example) is a wolf down, which is good, but an innocent Bes doesn't give us that much, since we can't deduce much from it.
(Oh noes! He's trying to dissuade her from Bes. Bes and he must be wolves! )

A lot of early votes toDay. Few of them to my liking.

edit: crossed with a few, and I have to correct myself: Boro does not make that much sense. He suspects me! Bad Boro!

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Sally's analysis of Lottie has me baffled. She suspects her very strongly, but then wants to save her til tomorrow. The conclusion could be lip service, and wolf-Sally is just fishing for support while trying to avoid scorn, or she's trying to discredit Lottie's dream in advance. In any case, why would an innocent make such a huge post about someone who's lynching is not urgent? Why not just state your distrust briefly with a few points and move on?

Because I started my analysis before I saw her reveal post, so I just included her reveal post in my analysis. And the only reason I'm content to save her until toMorrow is because if she is telling the truth it'd be mighty foolish to lynch her.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm agreeing with about 3/4 of this. Surprisingly, while I think Lottie looks guiltier than sin, Boro looks far too eager to lynch the innocent me and Eomer is more than happy to help him. I'd bet my lunch (a tasty sandwich) that one of them is a wolf. And if nothing else I know we would learn something from Shasta's death, as so much of him concerns me and I'd like to see the rest of the method behind his madness.

I'll grant you that, because I imagined this entirely fantasy scenario that was not real at all. Ok, ok, I jumped the gun...a bit. However, you should not put words in my mouth, like me being eager to lynch you. I gave you a fair and balanced re-evaluation.

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today. Not only for her bad vote, but completely shaky reasons on it ("Boro makes me uneasy...so for that I'm going to tie him with Mnemo who I grant is really really strange but isn't that suspicious" ), and shaky suspicions on today too.

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me, or you...I'm not going to be your knight in shining armor.

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Because I started my analysis before I saw her reveal post, so I just included her reveal post in my analysis. And the only reason I'm content to save her until toMorrow is because if she is telling the truth it'd be mighty foolish to lynch her.

Ahh now that makes sense, because I thought wow you did all that effort to try and discredit just to reach the conclusion of "crap she revealed...well doubt it, but gotta let her have a dream." It looked way over the top darling, I did not see the time-stamps though and now that I've checked, that massive post came 2-minutes after a prior one...ya I don't think you're that fast of a typer.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'll grant you that, because I imagined this entirely fantasy scenario that was not real at all. Ok, ok, I jumped the gun...a bit. However, you should not put words in my mouth, like me being eager to lynch you. I gave you a fair and balanced re-evaluation.

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today. Not only for her bad vote, but completely shaky reasons on it ("Boro makes me uneasy...so for that I'm going to tie him with Mnemo who I grant is really really strange but isn't that suspicious" ), and shaky suspicions on today too.

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me, or you...I'm not going to be your knight in shining armor.



Ahh now that makes sense, because I thought wow you did all that effort to try and discredit just to reach the conclusion of "crap she revealed...well doubt it, but gotta let her have a dream." It looked way over the top darling, I did not see the time-stamps though and now that I've checked, that massive post came 2-minutes after a prior one...ya I don't think you're that fast of a typer.

Not quite, no. And all is forgiven, precious. However, I still need to analyze you just to be on the safe side.

Here's my problem. I simply don't have time to write up an analysis post toDay but I need to analyze a bunch of people. So here in a bit I'm going to put up a list of how I feel on everyone, and if you have a specific question I'll try to answer it, but unfortunately I don't have enough time to shoot through everyone I want to.

*dashes off*

Back hopefully soon and with a good post.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

And just for the record, I would really want to see wilwa lynched today.

You have my sword.

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You have my sword.

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

Thanks. It's my own fault, really, as I fell asleep and didn't say anything so it looked like I'd done it all post-reveal, but I wanted to make sure you guys knew what had really gone on. We can't really afford to lynch an innocent or a gifted toDay so I thought I'd steer you away from the wrong direction.

Now, to analysis. Well, sparknotes, but still.

[Boromir88]

Back and should be here til DL, or at least the normal DL. So, til 4, don't know if Legate's going to extend it or not...?

And I have to say I have no idea what I'm seeing, because I could have sworn I saw Nerwen vote for herself, which is why I acted so shocked by it. Wow...so let me just change this:

and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nerwen, Lottie are before me,

to..

However, to make this clear, if wilwa isn't possible and these terrible choices of Morsul, Nienna, Lottie are before me

And let your own imagination wonder why I'm seeing stuff that doesn't exist

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You have my sword.

Sally, your explanation makes sense. I should have thought of that, actually. You're still up there suspicion-wise now, but not nearly as badly anymore.

I would prefer an axe or a stick of dynamite, so I can take a sample of ice and study how much glacial melt has been going on. But, a sword will do. Who says we can't multi-task on this expedicetion

[Pitchwife]

Reasons for Zil being killed? Well, it's somewhat puzzling. For some reasons, he always seems to attract at least some suspicion, whatever his role, so you might suppose he'd be exactly the type of person the wolves would want to keep around for a while. Unless they hoped he might be Gifted under his supposed suspiciousness?
He was part of yesterDay's Lottie-wagon, but since he was Mnemo's prime 'suspect' after myself, it would have seemed unlikely he voted to save Mnemo (if he'd survived, I mean), so it wouldn't have been that easy for the wolves to get him lynched, if they'd wanted to.
There's also the possibility of a set-up, as you (Boro) mentioned.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, and will be back with a better post, but for now, two things.

1. Re - Mac: Clarification - it seemed like you said I voted specifically to save Mnemo Day 1 and not you, which is incorrect - I didn't want to see either of you executed.

2. Re - everyone who thinks my Day 2 vote was suspicious: Query - since when is it suspicious to vote someone you're suspicious of? I feel a bit better about Nerwen after her vote for Nienna, but it could very well be a wolf-on-wolf vote. I won't be comfortable about either one of them until a role is known.

[Macalaure]

Deadline is getting closer and the thread is getting quieter. I guess considering that a lot of the votes are already in, that's not so surprising. It's a bit dissatisfying anyway...

So let's just have a look at them.

Morsul -> Morsul (wonderful...)
Lottie -> Bes (that one came out of nowhere)
(is it going to be standard in this game that the first two votes every day are forgettable? )
Nerwen -> Nienna (sure, with little time to make up your mind, you go for the most obvious suspect)
Wilwa -> Nienna(2) (sensible vote for a wolf under pressure. Then again, if we find Nienna innocent tomorrow, she'll be in a very tough spot)
Eomer -> Sally (I can understand it, but if the sensible votes are split between Sally and Wilwa, it will end up being Nienna. Of course, Eomer suspected Nienna, too, so he won't mind much)
Bes -> Lottie (aww, come on... )

[Boromir88]

Mac

Day 1-
#27 Mnemo does a wonderful job at a Form impression and hating Day 1s
#57 Mnemo ignored the reasonable debate of uselessness
#112 Mnemo seems innocent
#139 wants to avoid voting Mnemo
#161 prefers Inzil over Mnemo, and does vote Inzil.
Day 2-
#190 Mnemo has vague reasons for voting Inzil
#217 several good points have been made against Mnemo
#248 suspects Mnemo and asks Nog if his # of suspects is enough for him
#257 Mac's analysis on Mnemo, if Nog's guilty Mnemo would look suspicious.
#260 lists Mnemo is suspicious
#313 Mnemo's defending of Nog is suspicious
#386 Mnemo sounds like an ok choice
#390 votes Mnemo (4/7) and puts her in the lead by 2
#411 Mnemo's role would reveal more than Lottie's

Of Mnemo voters, Mac looks more like wolf-on-wolf than the others. The placement of his vote would be brilliant too. With Mnemo being under suspicion from Day 1, I think a wolf pointing suspicion towards her on Day 2 is a likely scenario, that's not just some cracked conspiracy theory. Also, notice that while he does consistently point towards Mnemo being suspicious he tries to nudge the suspicion more towards Nogrod. It's not "If Mnemo is guilty than there's a chance Nog is," it's "If Nog is guilty, this looks bad for Mnemo." That could just be because Nog honestly was his primary suspect, which I could understand seeing how Nog's case about the number of people Mac was suspecting was faulty.

I'm considerably less confident about Mac today, but not going to vote on him for that type of weak speculation. And if he is a wolf, it is pristine and stunning wolf-play, which Mac is fully capable of doing, but can he go the distance?

Nog
Day 1-
#158 doesn't find Mnemo suspicious, but he has been unclear about her since the latter part of the day.
Day 2-
#207 doesn't like Mnemo's vote and the whole coin-flip
#233 repeats reasons from #207
#356 Mnemo has made 2 odd votes now
#372 repeats reasons from #356
#405 agrees with Mac that Mnemo's wierdness looks more evil than Lotties
#413 votes Mnemo (6/7)
-Then in another post, agrees with Mac that Mnemo's death would reveal more

It's good to see Nog repeating himself..., but in a seriousness the vote the vote placement could be another wolf-on-wolf, but on my own feelings Nog looks better than Mac now. Yes he repeats his reasons against Mnemo a few times (is that a good sign? Not sure) but I like the details he uses plus bringing some new stuff to the table on Mnemo like in posts 207 and 356.

We've clearly disagreed about Lottie, but Nog tends to be more of the conspiracy theorist, and I detect nothing sinister in his doubts on Lottie's reveal.

By th way, I realized I had more of these to go than I thought...forgot about Morsul, Brinn, and Pitch. I feel like I would just be repeating myself, on feeling generally good about them. I've got to go grab some food, I'll be back to read all that's taken place and then vote.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Wow, a gifted reveal again. These Days, hardly a game would be complete without one or two, it seems. I must say I expected some more glamorous secret role, but that's a matter of taste, not an argument.
I think I can understand Lottie's reveal. YesterDay's bandwagon came rather late in the Day, she couldn't be sure it wouldn't happen again, and not knowing for sure whether she would be able to come back later toDay, she didn't want to take the risk of losing her chance to dream. Especially as it's her first time as a Gifted, she'd be anxious to do it right.
Anyway, I also think we can rule out the possibility that she's wolvish. Supposing yesterDay's Lottie-wagon was fueled by one or more wolves trying to save Mnemo, as seems likely, does anybody really think they would have put up another packmate as the alternative candidate?
So, let's give Lottie her chance, I think it'll do us good.
(I guess I'm hardly the first to say any of this, but nevermind. And for once, I'm letting it stand without any qualifiers and on-the-other-hands; it'll take some practice, but maybe I can make that a habit.)

Yes, you've said some things others have, but I'm going to tell you, that you're actually not being agreeable in this post. You might have some reservations about the reveal, and are repeating a few things, but you've added a new perspective that hasn't been mentioned. That is, supposedly Lottie was an attempt to save Mnemo.

Perhaps someone will speculate that it's possible Lottie's a wolf too, who got into trouble, therefor this is her attempt to get out of a lynch. But you can imagine all the assumptions one has to make to dream this scenario, while ignoring all the other facts about what makes sense in Lottie's reveal. Plus, if anyone tries to say they were saving Mnemo because she was making more sense than Lottie, than I will definitely beg to differ on that point!

Edit: crossed with whoever posted since Pitch's post I respond too

[Boromir88]

I forgot too that I got Nienna-Mnemo done, but I don't think anything's changed since my earlier response to Nienna.

To make it quick, I'll just say if Nienna seriously wanted to save Mnemo she could have tied the vote with Lottie, instead of throwing away a vote on Lommy. Maybe, she realized she painted herself into a corner, by declaring she's most suspicious of Lommy, therefor a vote on Lottie would look like a clear attempt to save Mnemo. That is indeed suspicious.

But there are other factors that need consideration I think before Nienna is lynched.

On Day 1 she repeats defenses against Mnemo, and even states she prefers Zil of Mnemo. To my knowledge Mac did this too, would Nienna wolf take that risk? I honestly can't say. However, has anyone looked into reasons Inzil was killed? I don't think it has, and I honestly can't do it, so hopefully someone else can...Greenie? Pitch?

It could be a set up to point suspicion towards Mac or Nienna, most notably Nienna who also defended Mnemo. That's just a quick last minute thought, and I think there are still too many questions surrounding Nienna's possible wolvery to vote for her today.