WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Nogrod]

Okay, I have never tried this kind of analysis before... let's see if it helps anyone but me.

So a + means the one thinks Pitchie more good than evil, a 0 means something like neutrality, and a - means the one thinks him more suspisious than not.

I have not taken known innocents abroad but Greenie seemed to suspect Pitchie quite (to the end) a lot and Inzil was more or less wavering. I have included Mnemo though just to show the perspective.

And the mentionings are in the order they appeared on that Day...

Day1

Mac: + (gives an innocent feel)
Mac: - (might be suspicious)
Lommy: 0 (inclined to like him but is he too agreeable?)
Morsul: + (feels innocent)
Nog: - (three people: considerate and reasonable, thus dangerous)
Boro: - (four people: expecting more from but far from seeing it)
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; feel a bit off, maybe a vote, wants to hear more)
Mac: - (too quick with declaration of innocence; not sure anymore) sure?
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; giving her the closest thing to a wolvish vibe)
Eomer: - (will probably vote for someone out of seven candidates; no reason given for Pitch being there)
Mac: + (would like to avoid voting him alongside five others - while not voting eight others)
Mac: + (he looked first innocent, then less and yet more innocent again)
Nog: - (Pitch & Inzil; looks helpful rather than is, careful indeed)

Day2

Mac: - (bandwagoning on him on D1, throws stuff but claims it a vibe-thing)
Mnemo: 0 (Pitch & Inzil: wants to make a deeper look at them)
Nog: - (agree with Mac it looks bandwagonish… seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts)
Lottie: - (looks suspicious, but doesn't have anything solid yet)
Nog: -(puts a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone, restating earlier points - as it is a list post)
Mac: (says earlier two times and here as well that he will look at Pitch closer...)
Bes: - (after Macanalysis ending up willing to vote him he says he might have considered me or Pitchie as well)
Mnemo: - (makes a damning analysis: silly jumpiness & posting in chunks)
Lommy: - (leaning guilty list: he's one of the five, no explanation given)
Mac: 0 (needs to "verify his own suspicion" but doesn't like the way people suspect him)
Lommy: - (comments on votes given; wouldn't be so sorry if Pitch died, because there's something fishy in his posts)
Nog: - (some of his posting looks odd and over-careful, giving two examples #110 & #127 of wishing especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way)
Sally: - (lists him along the "possible wolves", not wolves though or those she doesn't have anything)
wilwa: - (could vote him among others; makes her feel uneasy and is iffy)
Nog: - (speculating on voting possibilities and restating things already said)
Wilwa: 0 (thought she might go with Pitch but decides to stick with Boro)
Sally: - ("another bad vibe, to be honest; I had evidence but can't remember what it was right now, so basically he's just acting strange and I don't like it")
Bes: - (will not vote but stays with the same three suspect; Mac, Nog & Pitch)

Day3

Eomer: + (because of the Mnemo voting him)
Nog: + (because of the Mnemo voting him and him voting Mnemo)
Mac: + (the voting + the wolves picking Inzil: "Safe to say, I think, that the wolves would not have chosen him if Pitch was one of them")
Wilwa: + (Mnemo voted him at a time that he very well could have been lynched)
Lottie: 0 (seems innocent, maybe too much so?) [later put him into slightly suspected category in a list]
Nerwen: + (Mnemo's vote was unlikely a wolf-on-wolf)
Mac: + (with evidence and feeling Pitch is "quite good")
Wilwa: - (reconsiders: his vote on D1 tied Mac with Mnemo and on D2 it might have been a give-up)
Lommy: + (quite convinced he's an ordo: no bad vibes + Mnemo-stuff)
Shasta: - (agrees with Wilwa, could vote for him with three others)


A few thoughts to follow...

[Nogrod]

Everyone can see what people thought of Pitch, but the more interesting thing to me is who didn't say things about him or when they did if they did. I've been a wolf quite many times and claim to know how it "usually" goes. Some stick to the front and interact with each other - even voting each other - while others are ignored... and it's the last issue I'm now interested about.


Interestingly Brinn has not said a word about Pitch in the whole game! And her happiness in claiming the moral highground toDay hasn't made me feel better of her.

Nerwen was quiet about Pitchie D1 and 2 and only commented yesterDay that Mnemo's vote probably was not a wolf-on-wolf.

Boro and Eomer belong to the similar kind of a club: Boro makes a slight point of waiting more from four posters (Pitch included) but never returns to Pitch after that; Eomer says later on D1 that he could vote one of seven in his list (Pitch included) and then the next time he mentions him it's his beginning post where he says that because of the voting Pitch is more likely innocent.

Morsul says early on D1 that Pitch feels innocent and after that there is no mention of Pitch in his posts.

Not everyone mentioned here is a wolf - and not all people have time or a habit to make summaries or lists. But I'd bet a lot that there is at least one in there.


Shasta and Wilwa were independent enough (alongside Greenie) to suspect Pitch still yesterDay when most of us others were happy with the double w-on-w not being believable. That would talk good of them, to me at least.


Mac has really been going to and fro with Pitchie. Or has he?

Looking at it from the Devil's advocate's perspective he starts on D1 with mild suspicion, then when others suspect Pitch as well he starts backtracking and speaking in favour of him later on to the Day. On D2 he's mildly critical of him (as the general mood was that) but doesn't like the way others suspect Pitch. On D3 he starts bringing forwards theories why Pitch is innocent (wolves choosing Inzil) and saying that with both "feeling and evidence" he's quite good...

And then toDay he says this...

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.

I can see that possibility and would hate that being true, but we have to try when we have time and while we're alive...

So now good night. See you later in the Day!