WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Bes]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Taking Nienna's approach no long quotes here!
Bes

Bes 39
Doesn't want anyone to vote... why? Although we now know the votes were basically just a Formality...

then a bunch of posts like "Here and Reading..." "Sorry not on too much..."

Bes 156 Take Inzil's arguments and votes Mac...

Bes 252
Admits to backpedalling... Newbie mistake or cleverly playing Newbie card (I did it my first game...)

Bes 262 Makes a summary of Mac's post... maybe to defend her vote for him though she earlier admitted to not thinking it through sounds like misdirection to me.

Bes 416 Makes a reference to not being around That phrase always strikes me as an odd one always a slight "I'm not a wolf I Promise" statement.

Bes 470 Pulls a Mac, "Good Points against me" then goes on to denounce Lotie's reveal.

Bes 512 Continues on Lottie and votes for her... at least she's consistent...

A couple of newbie posts follow... I think she may be playing that card to its full potential.

Bes 671 Why would you try not to vote Pitch?

Lastly: Bes 673 Everything someone says or doesn't say makes them suspicious... including you Bes... Including you

39: A question is not the same as a desire. People harp on this post a lot, and at this point it's starting to make me giggle. People explained why there's reliably a vote every day, even if not everyone gets a vote in, and it made sense. You may have noticed I voted that Day.

262: Just a note, male. Short, monosyllabic handles tend to be difficult to read gender cues from, I know.

671: Because I still didn't feel right about Lottie; I had every reason, from my own point of view, to suspect Lottie of mischief. A lot of people still do suspect Lottie for that reveal, I'm noticing. Of course I'm going to feel crap about potentially lynching an innocent. We know now that Pitch was a wolf, but at the time my and several other votes were "So, this person is kind of suspicious, and Lottie says she's a Seer. Let's throw him/her under the bus as a litmus test for her sincerity." That would have looked just lovely for me if he/she turned out to be innocent, wouldn't it?

673: Yes, that would be the point of the post.

I don't really feel a need/desire to correct the other portions of the post analysis.

Edit: Crossed with Nog.

[Nogrod]

Bes! I think the most important post by you was this vote-post for Lottie you made:

Originally Posted by Bes #512

As usual, I don't have much time today. I don't agree with the notion that Lottie's reveal makes sense, since as has been mentioned and re-mentioned, her being lynched today before she made that post was hardly likely. If she's a wolf, then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

I need to make a vote today, so at the risk of looking suspicious my vote goes for Lottie. I'd ask if lynching her could prevent the Ranger from potentially being lost to a false seer, which is my hope, but by the time I will be able to read the answer the night will have begun.

It is a valid thing to question Lottie's revealment - I did it and some others did it. And I had already voiced my suspicion that the wolves might wish to make a "free kill" making the ranger protect one of their own... That's all fine and dandy. Even if I don't quite understand what you mean by:

then this would be a good way to get the Ranger out of the way, so if a real seer pops up later they would have no defense against accidental lynching.

If you mean a Night kill instead of "lynching" I might understand but otherwise I lost track with you there.

But what is important here IMO is that we just couldn't waste the opportunity to check whether what Lottie said was right. Actually we could have lynched her first and see what role she was given and then lynch Pitch toDay, but why to do it that way? If Lottie has the secret role the wolves would like to gamble on that as they wouldn't know what the role is - if she was a cobbler for instance, then the suspicions laid by her on Pitchie could be downplayed the next Day. So from an ordo perspective checking Pitch first was a clear marching order.

Yes, I do not say that Pitch being a wolf cleared Lottie. On the contrary. It might be one of these tragic stories where a community must check one of it's helpers just to be sure before the end - to be sure a sneaky wolf didn't fool us. But that's a different question.

What I sees suspicious of you Bes is that the way you wanted it to go was the way the wolves would have wanted it to go; to lynch Lottie first. I see no reason an innocent would wish to suggest that order but could see the wolves to wish that.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Just a thought - the main reason Lottie dreamt of Pitch was the fact that Pitch was pushing for her dream to be used on Bes. After the wolf-on-wolfery between Pitch and Mnemo, I'm not sure Pitch would set up yet another of his comrades that way.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Mac:

Let's document Mac's thoughts on Pitch.

#27 - "innocent feel"
#57 - Possible suspicious comment regarding the Boroversy
#112 - from "innocent" to "unsure"
#139 - has Pitch in the "I would like to avoid voting" category
#155 - flops back to "innocent"
#217 - would like to take a closer look at Pitch. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Mnemo say the exact same thing?
#274 - uncomfortable with suspecting Pitch as others are now doing.
#313 - back to thinking Pitch innocent.
#460 - vacillates on Pitch, again finding him innocent due to Inzil's death (huh?)
#481 - still feels good about Pitch here.

This is the main reason I suspect Mac. I'm unsure how I'll feel about him once I've taken a closer look at Mac by himself, but until I manage that he's a possible vote for me.

On Boro:

Originally Posted by Boro

Even though if there are 4 of them, this is a large group of scientists, and scheming to lose a wolf on the 1st-lynch makes wolf-on-wolf less likely.

Then, later down in the same post:

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm calling yesterday Day 2, and the previous Day 1. On Day 1, Mnemo acquired 3-votes, so it is likely they all recognized she was going to be in possible danger. So, going into Day 2, even though there was no lynch, she and her buddies knew she could be a viable lynch. Therefor, I find it more likely that a wolf could have voted for her, or applied suspicion on her at some point in the day, in an attempt to make him/herself look better.

These two statements are clearly contradictory. Also, you voted for Inzil instead of Eomer, though you were more suspicious of Eomer. Now, I'll buy your reasoning (that you'd suspected Inzil for longer and hadn't been answered), but something about the way you said it doesn't sit right with me.

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy said she was "detached." A wolf doesn't say that, plain and simple.

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

Originally Posted by Boro

If you weren't all that suspicious of Inzil in the first place, then why jump on Nerwen's vote?

Putting words in my mouth, are you? I became suspicious of Nerwen because I thought it looked like she was trying to kill Mac. It had nothing to do with saving Inzil.

Originally Posted by Boro

Then his Day 2 vote is suspicious, not in wilwa's way, but by adding in another name to the pot a Shasta-wolf could have been hoping Mnemo would have gotten lost in the mix of names.

I was suspicious ofNerwen, so I voted for her. I don't see what's so suspicious about that.

Originally Posted by Boro

2. She disclosed details about the role. When wolves make a fake reveal how much detail do you think they want to get into? That's rhetorical, but I'll say it anyway, as little as possible.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. See my major post near the end of the day we lynched Nienna (don't know the number off the top of my head) for details.


In hindsight, what I have on Boro isn't as bad as I thought it was - mainly his contradictory statements about Mnemo and wolf-on-wolfery, and his vote for Inzil over Eomer (both innocent). Still, he's a suspect of mine.


I'm also suspicious of Wilwa, but I'm afraid that might be groupthink. I'll do my best to take a look at her as well.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

No one around but me? This never happens.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

No one around but me? This never happens.

*waves*

But I'm not good for much right now. I've been looking over the thread and will hopefully post something a bit later.

You are not alone.

[Morsul the Dark]

Sally: (busy busy loooooong analysis yeesh...)
(For the record after this my earlier suspicion of Shasta has lessened.

Sally 79 Won't be around much fair enough.

Sally 82 Will try to vote doesn't want us to wait up though... Why? would your vote sway a tie to an innocent?

Sally 153 Wants Vote Count... not much here

Sally 169 Defends Mnem Suspects Shasta Votes Roa

Sally 218 Doing Laundry can't post

Sally 236 Again goes after Shasta and go figure too busy to post... For the record Sally I do not base my suspicio on this I myself had some recent time issues... So not suspicious because of it.. yet

Sally 278 responds to Boro makes sense to me. Don't lynch someone just to see what's inside.

A few Chatty posts... This particular bit of posting did and still does irk me somewhat says constantly no time finally found some spends it on nonsense like rhyming her name...

Sally 292 Does an analysis... I feel just to satisfy me... Mainly because It's followed up by more chatting posts...

Sally 359 List Eomer Wolf? nope... Mnem dunno... Wolf... Pitch Possible wolf hey 1 out of 3 ain't bad...

Sally 373 Again refuses to explain herself based on time... I'm sorry but at this point i begins to feel like an excuse as opposed to an inconvenience...

Sally 386 "Explanations" mostly based on feelings...

I'll call this Halftime on Sally's Analysis work on it more shortly... Brain hurts...

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Actually, I think that, as a wolf, Lommy would say that. If you think about it, she's saying "Oh, well, I can't be bothered to pay attention. Someone'll have to do something to get me interested, 'cause I don't have a role to make me interested." Subtle wolfish hinting?

Honestly, I don't think the fact that Lommy said she was "detached" is a tell either way. She could very well be a bored ordo, or she could be a wolf pretending to be a bored ordo. There's no real way of knowing.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Honestly, I don't think the fact that Lommy said she was "detached" is a tell either way. She could very well be a bored ordo, or she could be a wolf pretending to be a bored ordo. There's no real way of knowing.

Point taken. However, as she repeats it again later, I'm pretty sure it's intentional.

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Loslote]

Oh, and I will vote for either Lommy or Wilwa toDay, but not until much closer to DL, I think.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what do we say of Lottie? As I said yesterDay the wolves will not kill her so it's up to us to decide (sorry Sally, I saw you hinting at me giving the wolves info late yesterDay but really they would see it anyway - and if I was a wolf I would have rather told them that during the Night and not talk of it in open - which I thought I should do as I couldn't know whether I was alive toDay or not).

I don't like this, you are basically giving the wolves a reason to not kill Lottie. By saying "Let's give her a few days and if she's not dead then we'll lynch her" you're offering the wolves a lynch target in a couple days, so why kill her?

There are conspiracies and bold wolvery, but lynching Lottie in a few days, for the reason that she isn't dead yet, ergo she has to be a wolf is ridiculous.

1. She gave us a wolf
2. Her reveal and details check out
3. He reasons for revealing check out

We'd be foolish to follow that proposed plan. No what we do is we accept the fact that Lottie is a known innocent, who gave us a wolf. If the wolves want to keep her around, that's their perogative. Lottie, the wolves seemed to have determined even as a revealed innocent you're not a threat, make them regret it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

or like you, Mac and Nogrod. I'm starting to think that you all (and me too) are still alive because one of us is a wolf.

That's kind of crappy news because I really don't suspect any of you. So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking or I'm getting paranoid (which is not good news either) either because the wolves are intending people to get paranoid because of the "veteran loudmouths" all surviving or because it's just random we're all alive.

I don't like this either, there are an infinite number of reasons I'm (and other vocalists) are alive at this point, other than we must be wolves. That's poor reasons to suspect someone, because you make it sound like we're always the wolves primary kill choices when that's not true.

Maybe Brinn and/or Mac are wolves, and I'm alive because they have no reason to kill me since I haven't been suspecting them at all.

Maybe they're killing those who look even more innocent.

Maybe they haven't killed me, because I'm being a pain to the wrong people and I haven't done anything to make them worry about me.

Maybe, I'm too big of a pain and they fear killing me, so as long as I sit in a corner and rant to myself they don't care.

Maybe it's multiple of these possibilities...and these are just the ones off the top of my head.

Instead of trying to make weak-based assumptions about why I'm not dead yet, and this makes you suspicious. Start making assumptions based on more concrete information that you do know, like knowing they've chosen Inzil, Greenie, and Eomer so far. Why them? And then start looking for connections.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

These two statements are clearly contradictory. Also, you voted for Inzil instead of Eomer, though you were more suspicious of Eomer. Now, I'll buy your reasoning (that you'd suspected Inzil for longer and hadn't been answered), but something about the way you said it doesn't sit right with me.

No they aren't. Think of it as a scale, or even your NogRoa point system. ("This looks good for Nog, this doesn't look good for him"). That's all I was doing with the wolf-on-wolf votes.

In general I tend to believe wolves don't do a lot of pre-planned schemes the first night. They want to get an idea of what people are thinking, the situation...etc, before setting out on concrete plans. Plus, the number of people, points to wolf-on-wolf being votes being less likely.

However, that was not a normal Day 2. Mnemo was under considerable suspicion on Day 1, and started Day 2 under even more suspicion. On top of that she did a 180 character change, this pointed to me that either "a wolf-on wolf, or one of her packmates nudging suspicion towards her, os more likely." The only contradiction is "less" and "more," but think of it as a scale and that I was disagreeing with Eomer saying there were no wolf-on-wolf votes. (Now, we also know that Mnemo voted for Pitchwolf, this makes the wolf-on-wolf possibility again more likely, as Mnemo went sacrificial).

As far as voting for Inzil, I'm not going to say anything, because there's no way to answer it. You buy it, but still some unexplained thing doesn't sit right? That helps.

Absolutes like the above are very bad. You can't say for certainty that a wolf wouldn't say that.

I can. You don't have to believe me, but I can, and I can say it. The burden of proof is on you to prove I'm wrong. If and when you do, I'll be the first to eat a toaster. My methods aren't infallible, but they work for me, but you should also know enough about me by now to know that I'm not going to ignore everything else Lommy does/says because I made a comment about Lommy being innocent because of one word from Day 1.

Putting words in my mouth, are you? I became suspicious of Nerwen because I thought it looked like she was trying to kill Mac. It had nothing to do with saving Inzil.

Oh really?

Long story short, not seeing any "dodgy reasoning" here. I don't trust Nerwen's vote at all, I think that she's a wolf who tried to either kill Mac or save Inzil (or possibly Mnemo... all three scenarios have interesting connotations)

That's an un-altered quote from your post #234. The only alteration is my bolding to add emphasis.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. See my major post near the end of the day we lynched Nienna (don't know the number off the top of my head) for details.

Not wrong. Not wrong. Not wrong. Wolves give as little detail as they have to, because they're lying during a fake reveal and less details means less likely to get caught. The only reason I said I defended Kath, in the infamous fake ranger reveal, is because I had to since you prevented us from killing her.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Boro

There are conspiracies and bold wolvery, but lynching Lottie in a few days, for the reason that she isn't dead yet, ergo she has to be a wolf is ridiculous.

~~~~~~

Lottie, the wolves seemed to have determined even as a revealed innocent you're not a threat, make them regret it.

That made me laugh. And, that's the plan. Now,

++Lommy

Take Two. I don't know if I'll be on before deadline, but it's not looking likely, so...good luck, all.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen and Sally.

[Nogrod]

Give us some info as to who you are quoting Boro... well that goes to everyone of you lazybones...

With about twenty pages of the game it's hard to rememeber whose post any one you quote might be from if it's not the one next to your post...

It's not that hard; just after picking the "wrap" function add = and then immediately after it the name of the person quoted (so no empty space between the = and the first letter of the quoted name). It would really make this much easier to follow.

You might think you are answering to a certain person but without the knowledge of your intention and a host of people playing it would take half an hour at least at this point of a game to find whom one is referring to if one doesn't remember it outright.

Like if everyone actually bolded the names of people they refer to or talk about... trying to go through the thread it's easy to pass important things when people do not bold the names... but if they are bolded, they can be found as well.

Should we next make a deal that everyone not following these rules will be lynched first? I'd love that ruling!



EDIT: X'd from Boro onwards... to whom this was addressed...

[satansaloser2005]

*chuckles*

Ah, Nog, in an ideal world....I'll admit I've gotten really lazy on the bolding though. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don't, but when I'm scrolling through a thread I'm always happy to see other people doing it. So often I think we just forget (in the case of bolding at least) and submit our post without doing that kind of stuff.


EDIT: x'd since Nog's

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Like if everyone actually bolded the names of people they refer to or talk about... trying to go through the thread it's easy to pass important things when people do not bold the names... but if they are bolded, they can be found as well.

Should we next make a deal that everyone not following these rules will be lynched first? I'd love that ruling!

That would help. I try to, but I forget a LOT. Then again, there would be too many to lynch in one day...no one remembers all of the time.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Give us some info as to who you are quoting Boro... well that goes to everyone of you lazybones...

Oh come on now, it's not that hard to follow. I wrapped one of your posts, responded, one of Lommy's posts, responded, wrapped one of Shasta's posts of suspicions against me, and responded. It is not that confusing, I'm not going to put "Shasta" at the end of every quote if I'm responding to different points in one of his posts. All un-named quotes after the Shasta one are from Shasta's same post, except the one that I point out it's from Shasta's #234. Relax yourself Mr. Grinch.

I'm up early and here until 2-ish when I'll have to vote.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As far as voting for Inzil, I'm not going to say anything, because there's no way to answer it. You buy it, but still some unexplained thing doesn't sit right? That helps.

The reasoning seems sound, but the fact remains, you voted someone of lesser suspicion over someone of greater suspicion. That's what doesn't sit right with me. That help?

Originally Posted by Boro

I can. You don't have to believe me, but I can, and I can say it. The burden of proof is on you to prove I'm wrong. If and when you do, I'll be the first to eat a toaster. My methods aren't infallible, but they work for me, but you should also know enough about me by now to know that I'm not going to ignore everything else Lommy does/says because I made a comment about Lommy being innocent because of one word from Day 1.

Fair enough, but I still think it's silly to make that kind of generalization.

Originally Posted by Boro

Not wrong. Not wrong. Not wrong. Wolves give as little detail as they have to, because they're lying during a fake reveal and less details means less likely to get caught. The only reason I said I defended Kath, in the infamous fake ranger reveal, is because I had to since you prevented us from killing her.

Less details may mean less likely to get caught, but more details means more likely to be believed.

And to reply to the Inzil/Nerwen comment, since my quotes bugged out on me - You're right, I did mention "or save Inzil". The focus of my suspicion was still on the Mac-kill attempt, though.

You should reply to some of my other posts, Boro. I'm trying especially hard to participate today - I did my Grimoire stats and had it brought home to me today that I've been modkilled due to RL issues three (or was it four? I think it was three) times.


Edit: X'ed with Nerwen, Sally, Lottie, Nogrod, Lottie.

[Nerwen]

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.

To be fair, at least one of these must be an innocent reaction– also the kill does look like a change of tactic on the part of the wolves. Still. Since it's likely enough one or more of the three is a baddie, it makes me wonder if Eomer's death is a deliberate red herring, or perhaps frames someone.

And I really don't like this:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So either somebody's fooling me quite brilliantly (Nogrod?) or I am a wolf myself, no, not that but I had to leave it there because it was sort of the logical continuation of the sentence but definitely not what I'm thinking

Sort of "I'm-definitely-not-a-villain..."

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well, she gave us a wolf and I would say we should search for the remaining two elsewhere for a Day or two... but if we don't get them we should lynch her before the numbers start evening out. Just to be on the safe side.

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

EDIT: X'd with a whole lot of people.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

Not necessarily. The secret role could be, as Lottie mentioned (and I believe her on this) forbidden to reveal except for/given certain conditions or could be something completely different from Lottie and even more insane of a role. I know I had trouble in Shasta's game with my unknown (surprise!) hunter role, so imagine something that normally doesn't exist in a game.

I'm just sayin'. Lottie may be telling the truth, she may be lying. I'm kind of done dealing with her at least for now, because we've got more important things to worry about. If it gets to crunch time I may look at her again but for now I think she can take care of herself.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

These people– Sally, Shasta and to a lesser degree Lommy– jumping to announce how astonished they were by Eomer's death... hmmn... don't like it.

To be fair, at least one of these must be an innocent reaction– also the kill does look like a change of tactic on the part of the wolves. Still. Since it's likely enough one or more of the three is a baddie, it makes me wonder if Eomer's death is a deliberate red herring, or perhaps frames someone.

*cough Lommy cough*

And yeah, good point. I thought that was strange, too. Sort of a "Hmn. Not much to say. Let's just all go WAHH!! and see what happens!"

EDIT: xed with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But if there hasn't been a counter-reveal by then, can't we assume she's telling the truth?

We might indeed... but it's so much up to whether there is a counter reveal and what kind of counter reveal it is - and when it is. Let's remember we have no idea what the additional role is.

What do you say when at the crucial Day (question of win or lose) someone comes up with a challenging "reveal", or the Day before? We shouldn't let it come to that.

That is not to say I wouldn't trust Lottie for the time being. But I would hate losing when she would kill the last one of us just looking so darn innocent because of what she said - only what she said (as if she is a wolf she would know what to say).

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We might indeed... but it's so much up to whether there is a counter reveal and what kind of counter reveal it is - and when it is. Let's remember we have no idea what the additional role is.

What do you say when at the crucial Day (question of win or lose) someone comes up with a challenging "reveal", or the Day before? We shouldn't let it come to that.

That is not to say I wouldn't trust Lottie for the time being. But I would hate losing when she would kill the last one of us just looking so darn innocent because of what she said - only what she said (as if she is a wolf she would know what to say).

Sadly, I can see your point. I wouldn't want to waste the Day's lynch, though. Who knows? Maybe the wolves will be nice and obliging and kill me themselves.

EDIT: xed with Morsul and Sally

[Macalaure]

Nogrod-analysis. I'm intentionally leaving out my posts against him and his posts against me, to try to be objective (and to shorten it, I admit).

Day 1

He has some brief strategy discussion with Brinn, then goes all over the place with his Roa-miscount-thing. He accuses Roa and Nerwen of teamwork for Nerwen's defense of Roa and their shared criticism of Boro. Lommy suggests teamwork between Roa and Nogrod, later she says that at least one of them is a wolf.

Originally Posted by Mnemo

Although Roa's CobNog theory is interesting... Still, I think that Nogrod as a good cobbler would try to hold out until after Day One to start wreaking havoc. I'd just like to lay off both of them for a while and look at other possibilities...

Why would Mnemo do this half-hearted defense of Nogrod? It strongly looks like a wolf defending another. Mnemo also stated several times that she thinks both Roa and Nogrod are innocent. Nogrod will defend Mnemo later in #158.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now for the Nog-Roa controversy. We've seen it all before, but this time, Nog looks odder of the two. Secret cobbler is a definitive possibility, but no more than that. Let's keep them both for another Day and see whether Nog comes up with something more substantial.

Pitch takes Roa's side, suspects Nogrod, but not too much: "no more than a cobbler", "Let's keep him for another day". Another defense that looks wolfish.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Has anybody considered Nog has a secret role which is not a cobbler?

What is he hinting at? That Nogrod could be gifted?

Nogrod votes Roa even though the chances of lynching her are slim. He does not try to save Mnemo.


Day 2

Nogrod starts the day in full Roa mode. His case, while overblown, does not look particularly wolfish.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Nog, I found that act you pulled yesterDay extremely puzzling, but with the explanation you've given now, it kinda makes sense. As for your actual case against Roa, I've got to mull it over - it'll be interesting to see how she reacts now, anyway.

Pitch looking for an opportunity to go after Roa is not suspicious. A wolf would do that with an innocent case, too. The way he stepped away from suspecting Nogrod is suspicious, though.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo (for Inzil)
Is one of the most reasonable people around when talking about general issues. But like Eomer said, her willingness to say that both me and Roa are innocent so many times looks like overdoing it. With the vote she first says she will pick among Zil and Pitch for vibes on the basis of who would garner more votes - and just minutes after that “throws a coin” and votes Inzil…!

Some valid criticism, though nothing outrageous. The "one of the most reasonable people" part is a bit worrisome.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Pitch (for Mac 3)
I agree with Mac this looks bandwagonish… Seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts (like #127 fex.) which seem to say something but yet end up with being nothing but either/or. Also as Mac says, it’s interesting he first lists reasons for his vote but then says it’s more a “vibe-matter” than reasoning.

This looks like honest suspicion, however, apart from generic suspicions (rubbing wrong way, odd posts), he copies his points. Then again, suspecting generically is something wolves like to do to innocents. All in all, this one looks good.

In #233, Pitch and Mnemo are the first two he discusses. Strange. (Lommy is the third, btw.)

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Pitch I have really hard times with. His vote is bandwagonish and he sure is careful not to suspect anyone - on the contrary he seems to put a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone. Also turning his openly stated reasons (mainly borrowed from others) into just "bad-vibes" looks bad. Mac and Pitch are not both wolves.

Whole lot of points here and no defense of him. Why then the moderate "having hard times with" and not something stronger?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo is a most reasonable person and seems to understand a lot. But she is a bit too nice to everyone carefully not suspecting anyone openly. Her vote was a bit dubious as she first said she would see which one of the two (Pitch / Inzil) would be more probably garnering more votes and then she just tells us she flipped a coin to vote for Zil.

Basically the same he said before, just milder. Repetition of "reasonable" is suspicious, in my opinion.

Mnemo explains herself because Nogrod criticised her twice. (Don't want to check since this thing is already taking too long, but didn't other people raise the same concern?)

From his early vote analysis in #349

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo -> Pitch (based on her analysis on him)

This is interesting. He analyses quite a bit in that short post, but here he leaves it at a very simple "bases on analysis". Many others have criticised her analysis of him as bad (and now we know it w-on-w), but Nogrod doesn't touch it in the least.
As incriminating as this is on its own, he does say that Mnemo's (and Lottie's) votes look worst. He nevertheless refrained from giving reasons, which still looks bad.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Voting-wise it seems Mnemo has made two quite odd votes.

I don't get Mnemo's suspicion on Pitch that because he posts in "chunks" he's suspicious. Quite a strech - not the first one in this game though...

But I think some of Pitchie's posting does look odd and over-careful - at least yesterDay. Here are two prime examples:

(two quotes)

I can't see the point of posting a lot of these... except if one wishes especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way...

What to make of this? On the one hand, he criticises Mnemo now, on the other, he gives merit to some of her points. On the third hand, how is a wolf supposed to act when a fellow is in danger and doing some heavy w-on-w at the same time? Unless you choose to ignore it (which could be interpreted suspiciously later, too), you either go w-on-w for either side, or you end up with something like this...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mnemo's voting looks especially weird and she's not the easy-going voice of reason she was in the early part of D1 - when not yet suspected.

Pitch for being such a nice one taking care not to rub anyone the wrong way but still making an impression he's at it all the time and considers things for the good of us all.

He's been after Mnemo and Pitch consistently this Day, even though each quote taken by itself leaves the w-on-w possibility wide open. It's entirely possible that wolf-Nog has abandoned hope of saving Mnemo by now, but why does he keep on chasing Pitch? Then again, we do have the example of a wolf-on-wolf in Mnemo and Pitch.

Pitch never reacted much to Nogrod's suspicions. Just a very short comment in his vote post. Nog ends up voting Mnemo, unsurprisingly, although he calls it a "hard decision".


Day 3

Nogrod thinks Pitch is less suspicious after Mnemo's guilt - not suspicious. Not sure what to think of Nogrod's doubt about Lottie's claim.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not suggesting lynching Lottie toDay unless some serious counter-reveals emerge, but I'm really quite confused and untrusting of her right now.

Counter-reveals? Who would have counter-revealed it? While this line looks wolfish in the sense of just waiting for a reason to vote Lottie, it makes no sense for a wolf, unless he expected a false claim coming from an ordo(or hunter)-Lottie or in the implausible case that Nogrod and Lottie are the remaining wolves.

The heavy disagreement on Nienna between Nog and Brinn looks very much like one of them is evil. Nogrod votes Nienna, after briefly considering Wilwa.


Day 4

Pitch doesn't say anything and nobody doubts Lottie's claim, so from now on everything gets more vague. I don't see anything pointing in either way, except when Nogrod suggests to still lynch Lottie at some point. If Nog is a w-on-w-ing wolf, why point out other possible w-on-w's so much?


Time is running out on me, and I can't look at toDay now. Bolding the names is taking forever and I can't even really proofread it anymore.

I think everything hinges on Day2. Is it possible that Nogrod went after Mnemo and Pitch in a wolf-on-wolf-ish way or not. I'd dismiss it firmly but for two points: Mnemo and Pitch did wolf-on-wolf, too, and it's a nice way to gain others' trust when there's no seer around. The evidence is very inconclusive, but my bad feeling remains, which is very little reward for hours of work.

I will close quoting Nog himself:

One more remainder to all of us that wolves can be sneaky nowadays!

PS: Everybody who actually read the entire thing, let me know about it and I'll rep you!

[satansaloser2005]

Holy crap, Mac!

*reads*