T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Boro, stop flirting. That's my job.

Sorry, love, can't fight the moonlight?

Some dynamics to consider. Both wolf packs have a seer, making a fake reveal inevitable, as well as easily convincing and more believable.

Both packs being in competition have a ying and a yang. They are threats to eachother and want to kill the others probably just as badly as they want to kill innocents. But then, they can use that to their advantage by looking more innocent to us.

I don't get the doomsday, direness though. Ok, 6 wolves have to die instead of 3 or 4. That's more challenging. But it will be just as difficult for the individual pack to win, because their really is no benefit in having another competing pack. It's like how I don't get why we assume the werebear and wolves would work together? Only instead of just 1 lone bear, there are 3 opposing wolves each pack has to worry about. And there are 2 seers each pack of 3 have to worry about.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Sorry, love, can't fight the moonlight?

Some dynamics to consider. Both wolf packs have a seer, making a fake reveal inevitable, as well as easily convincing and more believable.

Both packs being in competition have a ying and a yang. They are threats to eachother and want to kill the others probably just as badly as they want to kill innocents. But then, they can use that to their advantage by looking more innocent to us.

I don't get the doomsday, direness though. Ok, 6 wolves have to die instead of 3 or 4. That's more challenging. But it will be just as difficult for the individual pack to win, because their really is no benefit in having another competing pack. It's like how I don't get why we assume the werebear and wolves would work together? Only instead of just 1 lone bear, there are 3 opposing wolves each pack has to worry about. And there are 2 seers each pack of 3 have to worry about.

Good points here, dear. I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

EDIT: split up the quote because I'd forgotten to do so prior to actually posting

[satansaloser2005]

Also, about the reveals. Erm, there's three seers out there. Even I would try a reveal at some point if I was one of the wolf seers and had good dreams to go off of. (It's irrelevant, but I almost wish I were a wolf so I could do it lol.)

That being said, I don't think we should trust our seer. I mean we should, but even a wolf seer could hand over wolves (of course from the other pack, but still) and we'd never know the difference.

A plan of attack needs to be made for any reveals later on in the game. I'd say toDay or toMorrow is the Day to do it, as toDay we're not going to have a lot to go on (and it gives us something, as well as enhancing discussion) and toMorrow we'll have a Night's events to go from.

Perhaps I'm being a bit too paranoid. But I don't think it's possible in this game.


EDIT: x'd with Boro. And I agree.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Perhaps I'm being a bit too paranoid. But I don't think it's possible in this game.

Maybe a bit paranoid, but just a bit.

I mean if someone says "Don't lynch Morsul, Pitch is a wolf!" I don't think we have much of a choice other than to listen. But, I see what you're saying when you say "don't trust our seer."

Our seer is in a rather difficult position, because with the amount of wolves, it's not like he can stick his head out at any first fake seer reveal. Also, as you said the wolf packs with their own seer can easily look believable, and just because whoever is claiming to be the seer's info turns out accurate, doesn't mean we should automatically trust that person as the innocent seer.

However, if we're fortunate the wolf pack will fear the wolf-seer just as much as the innocent seer and want to get rid of the opposing wolf-seer quickly too. That should cause wariness in any wolf claiming to be the seer, because the other pack could just kill him that night....but then again there are ranger-wolves, which provides a different niche. Ah! Brain now hurting.

[Kitanna]

I have forty minutes to read the thread, make my decision, and vote. Ugh, work days.

My first thought (and I should have mentioned it earlier) goes make to what Nogrod said in regards to Wilwa. After he highlighted her little bit about "helping" one team by destroying the other, I found it interesting both Nerwen and Inziladun commented on it. On Inziladun's part it was "hey yeah, this is interesting" but no further comment on it. Nerwen said something more along the lines that would Wolf-Wilwa be so careless in her speech?

Nerwen asks for her editing to not be blown out of proportion. Nogrod says this on the subject:

a wolf is usually more conscious and more interested on every possible angle others might read her posts and thus is more prone to make such changes when realising a possibly bad wording or suspicious-looking point, or just coming to second thoughts whether that point was something one should make.

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

[satansaloser2005]

*pets poor Boro's brain*

Of course, I'm by no means saying we should ignore seer reveals. If a 'seer' comes forward, we take their alleged dreams into account, blah blah. What I'm saying is that we won't know which seer they are, so while we can trust their dreams (hopefully!) we can't trust that they themselves are innocent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Tum te tum. I think Pitch is a wolf. Let's lynch him.

No! Noooo! Lynch me!

Oh, do shut up, Nilp, I'm busy looking for wolves.

Wolf! Wolf right here! Lynch this guy!

Don't make me pull out the hedge clippers again.

...Shutting up.

That's what I thought.

Anyway, Pitch is doing an awful lot of analysing and listing, but it seems very smokescreen-y and repetitive, very safe. Sally could be setting herself up with an excuse for not wolfhunting (love ya, dear ) but then again she is Sally. Everyone in this game from Europe seems innocent to me so far, but it's early days. Can someone inform me when DL is?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Can someone inform me when DL is?

Eight central. And I love you too.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

I totally agree with the first one and I only said the wolves are more conscious of it - and thus more ready to make last-moment changes.

But the reason I wanted to make the point on Wilwa and to continue on your point on Nerwen was that I wanted to see reactions to some open suspicions - or well, peculiarities, whatever you want to call them (with Wilwa I could say it was more or less an actual suspicion and with Nerwen maybe something that could be noteworthy if there were other concerns to add) as there had been basically none whatsoever before those two cases and we needed some actual discussion on suspicions.

I'm going back now to read those up as my bedtime is approaching. Back soonish with some ideas on how it went.

[Nogrod]

On Wilwa

My posts #28 & #31

Originally Posted by Pitch #33

I have to concur with Nog's answer to this one. Whether or not we should halve the Night-kills if we can is not a question which should cause an innocent much headaches, especially not an experienced player like wilwa.
Conclusion so far: this last post does worry me - looks like contributing, but is really quite wishy-washy, confused and confusing. Most suspicious thing I've seen up to now.

Originally Posted by Lommy #34

I agree with Nogrod that the solution to Wilwa's question is easy. Once we catch a wolf, we should go for those who look like his/her packmates so we can lessen the horrible killing rate. Although of course we still shouldn't ignore other people who look wolvish.

Originally Posted by Inzil #36

That's an interesting observation about Wilwa. I'll keep it in mind.

Originally Posted by Nerwen #37

That is indeed a highly peculiar thing to say. Though, you'd think a Wolfwa would be more careful.

But Wilwa's ill, it seems. At least she's having blood tests, anyway. Which might make an ill-considered remark more likely– for an innocent as well as a wolf.

Originally Posted by Kitanna #39

Wilwa does make a point we'd be helping the second wolfpack by getting rid of the first since Pack A can't win until Pack B is gone. However, I'll have to go with the sentiment that "a wolf is a wolf" at this point. We have to lynch one before we can put him/her into a team. Still, I don't see this as a real sign against Wilwa.

Originally Posted by The EW #49

I think Wilwa's remark about not wanting to help out the other team is not suspicious. Her explantation satisfies me.

Originally Posted by Inzil #55

That remark about helping one wolf team get rid of the other was odd. I don't see how we can possibly know who belongs to what pack anyway, even if the pack indentities are given when a wolf dies. Can we really single out wolves as belonging to one pack or another? Not unless one has some inside info. Still, having blood drawn is assignable to Mordor, and I personally don't do well with needles, so I don't know if I can vote for her toDay.

Originally Posted by Kit #65

My first thought (and I should have mentioned it earlier) goes make to what Nogrod said in regards to Wilwa. After he highlighted her little bit about "helping" one team by destroying the other, I found it interesting both Nerwen and Inziladun commented on it. On Inziladun's part it was "hey yeah, this is interesting" but no further comment on it. Nerwen said something more along the lines that would Wolf-Wilwa be so careless in her speech?

Originally Posted by Izzy #72

Wilwa's comment about decreasing one pack would help the other pack - it came off as a touch sad. As if we focused on decreasing one pack (her pack). it would help the other pack, which she does not want.

As I'm in a copy-pasting mood I'll continue with the Nerwen-discussion first before coming back to some overall remarks.


EDIT: X'd with a host...
EDIT2: added Izzy-quote

[Nogrod]

On Nerwen

Kit points the edit-thing out on #39 and Nerwen immediately answers.

Originally Posted by Pitch #41

What really gives me pause is that last one - I'd have thought editing the actual content of your posts (other than typos and formatting) was an absolute no-no in WW?? Good catch, Kit.

Nerwen hopes it would not be blown out of proportion (on #42).

Originally Posted by The EW #49

I personally think that a wolf wouldn't have the nerve to edit the actual content of a post after posting without a note. So, I guess I'm turning Nerwen's bad conduct into a sign of innocence. Still, that's my opinion on the matter.

Originally Posted by Inzil #55

I don't necessarily read anything into that post edit people are concerned about. I think everyone's probably caught themselves making a error in quoting someone at some time or another.

My adding to the Nerwen's edit-issue (on #57).

Originally Posted by Inzil #58

You have a point, and I'm not at all convinced Nerwen's innocent. Still, I don't know that I can vote for her based only on that.

Originally Posted by Sally #59

Fair enough, but I've done the same thing both as an innocent and as a wolf. If I realize I've made a mistake I fix it right away, and if I don't think anyone has noticed I just don't say anything about it because it's easier, or I just plain forget to add that 'edit' at the end. Regardless of her role, it's likely the same with Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Boro #62

I side with what Nerwen said in #42. Don't make a mountain out of a mole-hill with the editting. It's questionable sportsmanship to use meta reasoning and speculation as to what and why someone was editting.

Nerwen said "yep, that's right Kit," gave an explanation. Let's leave it at that.

Originally Posted by Kit #65

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

Originally Posted by Pitch #67

About the Nerwen edit thing: much as I'm inclined to respect her wish not to see it blown out of proportion, turning the matter into a 'sign of innocence', as Tewie does in #49, is too much. After last game, I'm not sure there's anything I'd put beyond a Nerwolf. Not going to vote her without some better reason, though.

[Kitanna]

I hate that I have to do it this way, knowing full well the possible repercussions of such an early vote, but I need to get back to work.

Here's the only person that has popped out to me more than once at this point.

++Inziladun

Nogrod pointed out Wilwa's post about "helping" one wolf team by eliminating the other. Inziladun agrees. Nogrod points out Nerwen's editing and how she didn't make it public. Again Inziladun agrees, but doesn't really cast suspicion on Wilwa or Nerwen.

Before Norgrod says anything about Nerwen Inziladun says:

I don't necessarily read anything into that post edit people are concerned about. I think everyone's probably caught themselves making a error in quoting someone at some time or another.

After Norgrod posts, he says:

You have a point, and I'm not at all convinced Nerwen's innocent. Still, I don't know that I can vote for her based only on that.

Granted he never said he thought Nerwen was innocent or anything, but he changes his tune from her edit was just a mistake to she's suspicious because of it and all in light of someone else's comment.

I wish I could stay longer and didn't have to vote so hastily, but such as life I suppose.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What do you mean wilwa with that bolded part there? Are you saying that it is a positive thing that there are two wolf-rangers who can protect their mates from the rivalling team's attacks? Isn't that just the contrary and one more reason to get rid of one whole team asap.?

Uh, honestly I hadn't even thought of that. I see Ranger and I automatically think they're on our side, I'm not used to the idea of an evilRanger, but yes of course they would protect their fellow wolves. I guess cause even the evil Hunter can help us out if they hunt one of the other pack, and the evil Unicorn can bring an innocent back to life, so I suppose I had the idea of 3 Rangers being a good thing. That was my mistake.

Originally Posted by Nog

So do you think we should refrain ourselves from lynching wolves as lynching a wolf from pack A is "helping" pack B?

No, that is not what I think.

Look, I'm gonna stop explaining this. Day 1 I talk about the rules, I talk about the statistics and our chances of winning, it's what I do. That's all I was doing, I was just trying to wrap my mind around our situation and be sure that we hadn't missed something. I see now that what I was saying was rather pointless, since there's no way to tell what pack a certain suspect could belong to, I was just talking, trying to stir up talk, I obviously hadn't thought of every possible scenario.

*is exhausted*

About the Seer reveals. I think if someone comes forward we should lynch those they say are a wolf, but not necessarily trust those that they say are innocent. Like a wolfseer could reveal the identity of a wolf from the other pack, so we should take all wolf identity reveals seriously, even though there's a chance they're lying, but then the next day we just have a wolf anyway. When it comes to a seer revealer saying someone is innocent though, we shouldn't take that as seriously, I'd say we should almost ignore it until we can be more sure about the seer's side. Since a seer wolf could say one of their mates is innocent, then reveal a wolf from the other pack, and we might think since they were right about the wolf then the one they say is innocent must actually be, when they may not. Does that make sense?

Originally Posted by Sally

Good points here, dear. I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

That whole highlighted part bugs me, just the feel of it. I'm all for optimism, but the way that she seems so against those who are just being realistic about our chances, and the "making people panic" thing. I don't know, I just don't like it. (though I'll admit I have just skimmed through everything and so don't have an accurate feel on her with regards to all her posts, this one was just the last one so I read it more thorougly, I'll look more closely at everyone later).

I don't think Nerwen's editing thing is a big deal at all, I mean it's not like she does it all the time or anything. I think some are making a bit too big a deal out of it. Besides, even innocent people worry about looking suspicious and do stuff to avoid that, avoiding suspicion is not only something wolves do.

I should be back on randomly until DL. I'll probably wait longer to vote since on Day 2 my vote will have to be rediculously early, I want this one to be more thought out.

x'ed since Sally at 63

[Pitchwife]

About the Nerwen edit thing: much as I'm inclined to respect her wish not to see it blown out of proportion, turning the matter into a 'sign of innocence', as Tewie does in #49, is too much. After last game, I'm not sure there's anything I'd put beyond a Nerwolf. Not going to vote her without some better reason, though.

Originally Posted by Legate #46

Also when re-reading, I became worried about TEWie-Sally and such discussions in the beginning... I mean "happy band of Wolves goes to picnic, what will we do in the first hours of Day 1 when nothing much is happening, let's have a chat". Of course, that would mean that they would have to be packmates.

As if most games didn't start with banter like that for the first 10-15 posts. I'm not saying ignore it all - there can be valuable hints in banter, like a cobbler signalling to wolves or self-conscious "I'm-so-evil" jokes - , but seeing a happy wolf chat just because there was some banter, regardless of content, is stretching it.
(Btw, Zil, I explicitely did applaud Legate in my very first post. Remains to be seen whether that was premature or not.)

Originally Posted by Boro

Both wolf packs have a seer, making a fake reveal inevitable, as well as easily convincing and more believable.

And at the same time making a genuine reveal by our own Seer rather risky, especially after this here:

Originally Posted by sally

That being said, I don't think we should trust our seer. I mean we should, but even a wolf seer could hand over wolves (of course from the other pack, but still) and we'd never know the difference.

Again, this is obviously true, but what's the point of stating it, except to sow mistrust of any Seer revealing, including our own?
But if you're asking for 'attack plans' in case of reveals, we should consider the possibility that the person revealing isn't necessarily the true Seer (innocent or wolvish), but a Hunter acting as mouthpiece for the real Seer in order to attract a Night-kill. The wolf-pack with a Hunterwolf could easily do this (they know each other's gifts, of course), but unless I'm mistaken about the current version of the Rules, our own gifteds could do it as well once the Seer has dreamed the Hunter.

EDIT: x-ed w/ Boro, sally & Kit

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife, re: my seer theorizing

....what's the point of stating it, except to sow mistrust of any Seer revealing, including our own?
But if you're asking for 'attack plans' in case of reveals, we should consider the possibility that the person revealing isn't necessarily the true Seer (innocent or wolvish), but a Hunter acting as mouthpiece for the real Seer in order to attract a Night-kill. The wolf-pack with a Hunterwolf could easily do this (they know each other's gifts, of course), but unless I'm mistaken about the current version of the Rules, our own gifteds could do it as well once the Seer has dreamed the Hunter.

Heh. You just made my freaking day.

When I posted that I not only wanted to make everyone aware of what I was thinking, but I also expected certain types of responses and wanted to see who would give them to me.

Let's analyze! That's right, analyze myself (sort of)!

Me: "So we can't trust the seer right away. Don't kill them, necessarily, but don't trust their motives. We still gotta listen to them though, 'cause....yeah."

Pitch: "Sally wants to make us mistrust our seer! I'm going to hint that she's evil because clearly someone who says this is a wolf!"

Me: *saw that coming*

Pitch: "But we have to keep an eye out and be open-minded because it could be a wolf!hunter trying to bravely protect their wolf!seer. Blah blah."

Me: *saw that coming*

Pitch: "Oh, and of course the ordo!hunter could do that too. Wow, look what I did? I planned for nearly every eventuality in this and completely just discredited Sally. Oh, and of course I've been thinking about this for more than an ordo would need to but I've no reason to be worried about it, oh noes, not me."

Me: "Pitch? Hun?"

Pitch: *blushes* "Yes?"

Me: "Your fur is showing."



I love it when my drag-crap-out-of-you posts work out so well. Look, I got an Izzy to try to fear monger against me too. Lovely! I'm proud of myself!


And now I'll go look at Pitch more in detail. Kthnxbye? Kthnxbye. ^_^



Yes, I'm paranoid. I don't care. I got exactly the wolf!reaction I expected and I plan to deal with Pitch accordingly. *grins, runs off*

[Nogrod]

Sorry to put all those parts of the posts there, but if one of them turns out a wolf that kind of easy-reference might prove handy later (and I had to do that anyway to get muself to read them in order).

So so me comments...

On the discussion on Wilwa.

Pitch says it's the most suspicious thing he's seen so far (after some round-abouts) - which is kind of all too easy.

Lommy doesn't take sides on suspicions but comments only on the general issue. Carefully decided not to comment on Wilwa herself?

Inzil sound opportunistic with his "interesting" and "keep it in mind".

Nerwen more or less defends Wilwa: "a Wolfwa would be more careful". Heh, were you two "more careful" in the last game? Also it is interesting she tries to give a meta-reason (she's ill) to not think Wilwa suspicious.

Kit says it's no real sign against Wilwa (obviously... so what's the point?). Feels a bit protective.

The EW is satisfied with Wilwa's explanation... excuse me?

Inzil (second comment) misses the mark and ends up saying he would not vote on the basis of that - and that follows the new sentiment that people don't seem to suspect Wilwa that much... that could be seen as opportunistic as well.

Kit (second comment) notes Nerwen's and Inzil's reactions to the suspicion.

Izzy banged the head of the nail by saying what I was thinking about... so why I suspected Wilwa in the first place.


On the discussion on Nerwen

Pitch looks like trigger-happy again without committing himself too much (see above case Wilwa). I'm uneasy with him and the two "hits".

The EW says he will turn Nerwen's "bad conduct into a sign of innocence"... excuse me? It's the second time I just don't get him - but it might actually be just a different approach... but it bothers me still.

Inzil seems to be quick to join the group defending Nerwen - but still feels the need to re-explain after my re-stating of the point.

Sally takes the personal view: I do that as well and it's likely the same with her. Looks good, but if she is in cahoots with Nerwen she would probably have said the same...

Although (and this holds for all the people to come later as well) I'm not so sure anyone being Nerwen's packmate would think it advisable to comment on the issue at this point any more as basically everyone had already said there was nothing suspicious in there. So why relate themselves defending their mate (if Nerwen gets lynched / killed) as someone might come back to these discussions afterwards?

But Boro's "cut the crap, she's innocent" -attitude is way too overconfident for my liking. Especially the comment "let's leave it at that". Well, well, well...

Kit comes around now defending Nerwen... interesting, but probably more innocent than suspicious, regardless of Nerwen's role.

Pitch (second comment) is very carefully trying to not let the suspicion go but says he won't vote her without better reasons...


Okay. You can see quite a lot of what I think from these comments. Now I need to take a short break, read the rest that has come in while I have been writing these, and then make some kind of final remarks for the Day, vote and go to sleep.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But Boro's "cut the crap, she's innocent" -attitude is way too overconfident for my liking. Especially the comment "let's leave it at that". Well, well, well...

Pardon me. I did not say it was crap, nor that she was innocent. I said Nerwen acknowledged it, explained it, and we should not make a mountain out of a mole-hill.

My "leave it at that" was an attempt to indirectly say I'm uncomfortable with talk about the whole editting thing. It's meta-reason, and in some ways looks like Nerwen was being called a cheat, and speculating about how unfair it would be if Nerwen is a wolf.

What I didn't want to say, because it would have further gave attention to it, but since you Nogrod seem to want to anyway, and insist I said she was innocent.

If Nerwen's a wolf, she should be ashamed for deleting content she thought would make her look suspicious, when she knows the "unsaid" rule.

However, I find it a particularly unsporty thing to insinuate someone is a cheat, or consciously breaking the rule when there is no proof.

I have no issue with Kit pointing it out, it was good that she did to force an explanation from Nerwen. What I do have an issue with is now Nerwen must be a wolf because she editted out something without first telling us, and the insinuation that she's being unfair for doing it.

[Nogrod]

I see what you're pointing at Boro... and there are good reasons to say what you say - and I actually agree on them. The only problem is that I don't trust you and you would claim that same highground as a wolf... well as Nerwen's packmate.

But as I said, it was more the reactions stuff I was after. And maybe they will help us later. Hopefully they do. (And that's not just the question of Nerwen but how others reacted to that discussion)

[Nogrod]

Okay.

I have given this a lot of thought the last few hours.

Sorry to be the fun-killer but I must go to sleep. Hopefully there is enough to read from Day1 as it is now.


So let's "cut the crap" and lynch a werewolf.

++ Lommy


I'll make a few speculative notes in a separate post and then go to sleep - but if someone is going offline like this minute there it is.

I'm the seer and needed to find out Lommy as she fools me basically everytime. A good pick indeed.


EDIT: heh, x'd with the wolverine...

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I see what you're pointing at Boro... and there are good reasons to say what you say - and I actually agree on them. The only problem is that I don't trust you and you would claim that same highground as a wolf... well as Nerwen's packmate.

But as I said, it was more the reactions stuff I was after. And maybe they will help us later. Hopefully they do. (And that's not just the question of Nerwen but how others reacted to that discussion)

Indeed I would, you lot know me all too well. With that said now, and having my say about it, I can move on to all the cross-posting that just happened.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

No, no, these were two different things. Being "mightily scared" is a feeling: a subjective feeling, knowing that Nerwen can be a terrible Wolf, and not getting for now very good impression from her. The list I posted later was a list of my level of suspicion about people in general after a reflection about the subject.

Hmm. It wouldn't have looked as off to me if you'd clarified it in the later post. As it was, the change looked rather jarring.
As for Pitch, yes I did forget about his first post when I wrote that. But when he said he 'applauded' you, he apparently was simply glad to see some serious discussion afer all the banter. Was that really 'buttering you up'?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And should I add that those who skipped the discussion alltogether are the most suspicious?

Why is that? And why are the people who discussed the matters also suspicious? You can't have it both ways.

x/d with everything since 87- An event has occurred!

[Thinlómien]

Huh, you people are posting a lot and my brain actually hurts. A pause from ww seems to be no good...

In my brain, Wilwa and Sally are currently not making much sense. Wilwa I can excuse by her loss of blood but Sally... eh, darling, have you taken some illegal substances?

Well, I have to admit Wilwa makes some sense but sometimes I don't get her logic. She got me wondering about the end conditions of this game. If there's 2 of each team (2 wolves from team 1, 2 wolves from team 2, 2 innocents) the game continues as normal, right? Or what? But I still think it makes the most sense to kill the wolf-packs one by one, at least to me.

Sally is all banter, and makes weird points. Either because she refuses to explain them because of avoiding being too reasonable or either because she's laying traps, but it still confuses me.

There's something that doesn't quite sit right with me with Ewie. He is somehow too humble, or something. Humble as in "quick to admit one's own mistakes and vices" which is something wolves are more prone to do, because they know they're evil. I think his actions are worth following.

Originally Posted by Boro

Although with the time zone differences, I guess this means we won't have much time together? 'Tis a pity.

Yes, less of personal Dr Boro therapy for me, I guess.

Nogrod is making mountains out of molehills (eg. Nerwen editing issue) but because it's so characteristic of him, I will let it pass.

As for the seer reveals, I don't think we need to bother about them so much now. Like somebody said, wolf claims are probably true and if they aren't, then we have a stupid false seer. And we can always lynch a seer claimant - there's after all at least 1/3 chance s/he's a wolf. (Pretty drastic, I know, but mathematically it makes sense. That's why I hate matemathical arguments.)

Originally Posted by Sally

I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

Ehh what? As well I could say now that you're (hmm what would be a good word...?) big bad wolfing (?) now by claiming the wolves are in trouble. Actually that would be a far more wolvish thing to do - to lull the villagers to a false sense of security.

And I don't think we've had any too pessimistic stormcrows. At least I think I (and those whose points I recall) have been just realistic. And it's (almost) always better to be too wary than too trusting in werewolf. And still some things are facts. We do not have as big chances of winning as in a normal game. It can't be so with three teams competing for victory. But if we accept the fact that we have a 1/3 chance of winning, then we are on a realistic ground. Maybe to some it is pessimism to say it aloud, but it's realism. It doesn't make me especially happy either, but we just have to live with it. At least each wolf pack has also only 1/3 chance of winning, even though the probability of a wolf victory is 2/3.

Originally Posted by Izzy

I do not like how Legate connected himself to Nogrod in terms of Nog will come and lynch all of the Day One Jokers. I think in the meta-game sense, about eighteen posts of first Day joking is on the small side, when it could and has easily turned into two pages.

That actually troubled me too, although it feeling bad to me didn't seem to have any reasonable gorunds back then nor does it now. What would a wolf-Legate profit from threatening villagers with Nogrod? Don't get it. Well maybe the wolves aren't always acting hyperanalytically and purposefully (something that's good to keep in mind) but that makes drawing conclusions more difficult.


My thoughts on people this far (note that the division between categories is really artificial, but I wanted to arrange them somehow)...

More good than bad
Nogrod - looks like himself although he is quite quiet. Doesn't give off wolvish vibes.
Kitanna - for once, I do not suspect her on Day1. I hope it means that I've learnt to read her (and not that she's evil this time). She seems to have sharp points, although I don't necessarily agree with them.
Zil - seems more reasonable than most, although I can't remember anything in particular that he said, which could be eyebrow-raising. He is not giving the sinister vibes he so often is when he's evil.
Izzy - if I had bet on one person's innocence, I would lay my bet on Izzy. She makes sense, thinks independently and seems to notice stuff others don't. I like her.

Enigmas
Wilwa - she needs more blood and sugar. She occasionally makes me raise my eyebrows but it might be just our disagreement or her physical condition. Nothing too bad yet.
Legate - has something fishy in his manner, has seemed more genuine towards the end of the Day, though. He makes sense but is at times a bit off (feeling-wise).
Nerwen - always an enigma.
Pitchwife - my opinion on him changes like a rollercoaster. Now again I was becoming quite sure there's something really sinister in his pleasant and careful manner, when somebody's post reminded me of his reputation as Mister Agreeable (I had forgotten that). Also, there seems to be suspicion againt him in the air exactly in the manner that makes me reconsider my own suspicions.

More bad than good
Morsul - I don't know what's it, but the less I think of him, the more suspicious I consider him. Err, that probably didn't make much sense. But I just mean that when I'm not paying any particular attention to him, he starts to seem like a threatening figure on the background. He may be acting characteristically, but that shouldn't exonerate him. There's just something bad I seem to have half-consciously gathered from his posts.
Boro - not giving any (in)famous vibes to either direction, but I don't like it how much he seems to have been reading and pondering the rules. It's always a disturbing when somebody appears for the first time on Day1 and gives a very enlightened and calm impression.
Shasta - hiding behind banter and not replying points made against him. And what is this Nilp-thingy? I get the feeling that an innocent would be more worried ergo involved at this point.
Ewie - seems to have bad conscience, see what I said above. But I also said I won't vote him without a good reason and I'm not sure if this counts as one.

This made me rearrange my thoughts a bit, but I'm not any closer to a decision of whom to vote. Feels like it will be a tough choice...


edit: xed with 2x Nog, 1xLeg, 1xBog (sorry had to make it rhyme!)

[satansaloser2005]

And I'm not even on Lommie's list.

On the contrary, Lommie dear, I just don't like it when people cry 'doom!' and everyone freaks out so much that they overreact at stuff () and we have chaos. Let's remember that we're in trouble, but that the wolves are all in a similar position and thus won't be too overconfident (as a whole anyway), at least for now, and leave it at that. Otherwise you're just spreading panic.

[Thinlómien]

So, Nogrod, everybody who commented on Wilwa or Nerwen (with the exception of Kitanna) is suspicious? *scratches head*

Sally, I'm sorry I forgot you, and I don't get how it happened - probably I was thinking of you too much. You'd go to the "suspiciousish" category because I think you make weird (as in "don't make sense") posts and wheel/weasel/wheeze/whuzz/buzz/buzzle/cuddle/whatever around a lot.

And I don't really think the wolves are in trouble more than us. They also have 1/3 chance of winning, like us. But I would be less worried if I was a wolf than I am now - even if they have the other pack to give them trouble, they have all these nice gifts and (like I said earlier) excuses to seem reasonable on the thread, which are things any wolf would be happy about.

Or maybe it's just that I can't believe the wolves could feel threatened too, not threatened by us at least. Maybe by the other pack. Gah, these dynamics are confusing me.

But somehow still you insisting it must be depressing for wolves makes me think you are a wolf who is depressed.

[satansaloser2005]

Or an ordo who's oppressed. Either way, really.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So, Nogrod, everybody who commented on Wilwa or Nerwen (with the exception of Kitanna) is suspicious? *scratches head*

Well, more or less so... I'm not too relaxed with Kit either.

And should I add that those who skipped the discussion alltogether are the most suspicious?

[Thinlómien]

Gaaargh.

Okies. Sally-pudding, you shall have the benefit of doubt for toDay.

Boro's last post looks good.

I said I wanted to give Ewie a Day2 if he doesn't do anything too bad.

I don't really have even weak points against Morsul.


So that leaves

++Shasta

It feels bad to vote him with him having posted so little this far, but no can do. The little he has posted hasn't quite impressed me. You can have a look at what I've said about him this far for I don't want to recap, but most of all he doesn't seem to put much effort into this, which I would see as wolvish. Would a wolf really care so much whether we lynch an innocent or a wolf from the other pack? probably not as long as his mates are safe and he himself is not incriminated in the process...

Good night people, I'm going now.


edit: xed with Wilwa and Nog

[Isabellkya]

Uhm.. I had not liked the way Legate connected himself to Nog, because it felt like he was buttering up Nog. He was being a tattle tale, and immediately pointing the finger in a direction away from himself all at the same time. 'Neener neener, you better watch out, the big bad policy lyncher is coming!'

It feels like you Lommy are doing the same thing, however to myself. 'If I bet right now, I'd bet on Izzy.' One of those 'If I do not suspect them, then they probably won't suspect me'.

Did you just reveal as one of three possible Seers, Nog?

I agree with Wilwa. If Nog were a wolfSeer, he could easily just kill her during the Night.


I am getting confused by the false voting.. ?


X'd withe verything after #106.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by sally

Pitch: *blushes* "Yes?"

*does nothing of the kind, having nothing to blush for*
But obviously I do have something to worry about. Seriously, am I getting paranoid myself or is there a conspiracy going on?
Lommy #34: I'm too careful/serious;
Legate #35: I'm not serious enough;
Legate #46: I make safe posts and applaud him too much;
Shasta #70: I'm a wolf because I'm too smokescreeny, repetitive and safe. (Takes some cheek to make that accusation after having been a submarine all Day himself!)
sally #76: acts like she's caught me in a trap because I've actually given some thought to the matter she addressed previously instead of just being 'uh, yeah, well, what are we going to do?'. And if you think I've been thinking about this 'more than an ordo would need to', how come you saw it all coming? What does that say about yourself?
Looks like at least one bandwagon is guaranteed toDay...

À propos, bed- and voting time is approaching.
Not going to vote for at this time (but might later, depending):
Tewie - he doesn't feel quite right to me, but I'm giving him a pass toDay as he hasn't played for a long time;
wilwa - she's either furry or confused out of her senses by blood loss (except in what she says about Seer reveals, which actually made sense to me); I'm assuming it's the latter, in which case it would be unfair to lynch her toDay, but she urgently needs to improve.

Tend to trust:
Nog - yeah, well, shouldn't be taken for granted and all that, but I really don't see anything outstanding yet. I note Boro's point about using suspicions to merely probe and not stick with them, but he's been known to do that before, too.
Kit - pointed out Nerwen's much-discussed edit, but also brought arguments in her defense, which speaks of looking at things with an unbiased eye. Good observation about Zil changing mind on wilwa and Nerwen after Nog's respective posts.
Izzy - like her comeback.
Morsul - little to go on, and some not-awfully-well-reasoned early suspicions, but seems to be just himself.

Would like to trust, but ain't sure I can:
Boro - not sure why, but he feels more innocentish than usual this time. There could be some collusion 'tween him and sally or not, I don't know.
Legate - most of what he says is sensible, maybe too good to be true? What I'm most worried about is the amount of agreement between him, Lommy and Nerwen.
Lommy - as I said before, looking mostly sensible but hard to really pin her down on either side.

Unsure leaning to suspicious:
Zil - neither here nor there, very guarded, hitching on to Nog's suspicions of wilwa and Nerwen;
Nerwen - neglecting the notorious edit aside, she's just too unreadable for my taste, looks like carefully avoiding to let us know what she thinks of others and rub anybody the wrong way.

Seriously p***ed off with, probably to the point of voting:
Shasta
sally
I really hate knee-jerk retaliation, but sailing safely under the radar for most of the Day and then pounce on me for thinking too much, or whatever... gah.

Some final digestion, and then a vote.

EDIT: x-ed with everybody for the last hour or so.