T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Sorry, love, can't fight the moonlight?

Some dynamics to consider. Both wolf packs have a seer, making a fake reveal inevitable, as well as easily convincing and more believable.

Both packs being in competition have a ying and a yang. They are threats to eachother and want to kill the others probably just as badly as they want to kill innocents. But then, they can use that to their advantage by looking more innocent to us.

I don't get the doomsday, direness though. Ok, 6 wolves have to die instead of 3 or 4. That's more challenging. But it will be just as difficult for the individual pack to win, because their really is no benefit in having another competing pack. It's like how I don't get why we assume the werebear and wolves would work together? Only instead of just 1 lone bear, there are 3 opposing wolves each pack has to worry about. And there are 2 seers each pack of 3 have to worry about.

Good points here, dear. I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

EDIT: split up the quote because I'd forgotten to do so prior to actually posting

[satansaloser2005]

Also, about the reveals. Erm, there's three seers out there. Even I would try a reveal at some point if I was one of the wolf seers and had good dreams to go off of. (It's irrelevant, but I almost wish I were a wolf so I could do it lol.)

That being said, I don't think we should trust our seer. I mean we should, but even a wolf seer could hand over wolves (of course from the other pack, but still) and we'd never know the difference.

A plan of attack needs to be made for any reveals later on in the game. I'd say toDay or toMorrow is the Day to do it, as toDay we're not going to have a lot to go on (and it gives us something, as well as enhancing discussion) and toMorrow we'll have a Night's events to go from.

Perhaps I'm being a bit too paranoid. But I don't think it's possible in this game.


EDIT: x'd with Boro. And I agree.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Perhaps I'm being a bit too paranoid. But I don't think it's possible in this game.

Maybe a bit paranoid, but just a bit.

I mean if someone says "Don't lynch Morsul, Pitch is a wolf!" I don't think we have much of a choice other than to listen. But, I see what you're saying when you say "don't trust our seer."

Our seer is in a rather difficult position, because with the amount of wolves, it's not like he can stick his head out at any first fake seer reveal. Also, as you said the wolf packs with their own seer can easily look believable, and just because whoever is claiming to be the seer's info turns out accurate, doesn't mean we should automatically trust that person as the innocent seer.

However, if we're fortunate the wolf pack will fear the wolf-seer just as much as the innocent seer and want to get rid of the opposing wolf-seer quickly too. That should cause wariness in any wolf claiming to be the seer, because the other pack could just kill him that night....but then again there are ranger-wolves, which provides a different niche. Ah! Brain now hurting.

[Kitanna]

I have forty minutes to read the thread, make my decision, and vote. Ugh, work days.

My first thought (and I should have mentioned it earlier) goes make to what Nogrod said in regards to Wilwa. After he highlighted her little bit about "helping" one team by destroying the other, I found it interesting both Nerwen and Inziladun commented on it. On Inziladun's part it was "hey yeah, this is interesting" but no further comment on it. Nerwen said something more along the lines that would Wolf-Wilwa be so careless in her speech?

Nerwen asks for her editing to not be blown out of proportion. Nogrod says this on the subject:

a wolf is usually more conscious and more interested on every possible angle others might read her posts and thus is more prone to make such changes when realising a possibly bad wording or suspicious-looking point, or just coming to second thoughts whether that point was something one should make.

But the fact that Nerwen was willing to make that change and not acknowledging it in public - not wishing to fex. make just a new post entertaining the issue anew - does look peculiar.

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

[satansaloser2005]

*pets poor Boro's brain*

Of course, I'm by no means saying we should ignore seer reveals. If a 'seer' comes forward, we take their alleged dreams into account, blah blah. What I'm saying is that we won't know which seer they are, so while we can trust their dreams (hopefully!) we can't trust that they themselves are innocent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Tum te tum. I think Pitch is a wolf. Let's lynch him.

No! Noooo! Lynch me!

Oh, do shut up, Nilp, I'm busy looking for wolves.

Wolf! Wolf right here! Lynch this guy!

Don't make me pull out the hedge clippers again.

...Shutting up.

That's what I thought.

Anyway, Pitch is doing an awful lot of analysing and listing, but it seems very smokescreen-y and repetitive, very safe. Sally could be setting herself up with an excuse for not wolfhunting (love ya, dear ) but then again she is Sally. Everyone in this game from Europe seems innocent to me so far, but it's early days. Can someone inform me when DL is?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Can someone inform me when DL is?

Eight central. And I love you too.

[The Elf-warrior]

++ Lommy

It's a seer claim. Looks like a great shot at bagging a wolf to me.

X-Posted with Pitchwife, wilwa, and Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

I totally agree with the first one and I only said the wolves are more conscious of it - and thus more ready to make last-moment changes.

But the reason I wanted to make the point on Wilwa and to continue on your point on Nerwen was that I wanted to see reactions to some open suspicions - or well, peculiarities, whatever you want to call them (with Wilwa I could say it was more or less an actual suspicion and with Nerwen maybe something that could be noteworthy if there were other concerns to add) as there had been basically none whatsoever before those two cases and we needed some actual discussion on suspicions.

I'm going back now to read those up as my bedtime is approaching. Back soonish with some ideas on how it went.

[Nogrod]

On Wilwa

My posts #28 & #31

Originally Posted by Pitch #33

I have to concur with Nog's answer to this one. Whether or not we should halve the Night-kills if we can is not a question which should cause an innocent much headaches, especially not an experienced player like wilwa.
Conclusion so far: this last post does worry me - looks like contributing, but is really quite wishy-washy, confused and confusing. Most suspicious thing I've seen up to now.

Originally Posted by Lommy #34

I agree with Nogrod that the solution to Wilwa's question is easy. Once we catch a wolf, we should go for those who look like his/her packmates so we can lessen the horrible killing rate. Although of course we still shouldn't ignore other people who look wolvish.

Originally Posted by Inzil #36

That's an interesting observation about Wilwa. I'll keep it in mind.

Originally Posted by Nerwen #37

That is indeed a highly peculiar thing to say. Though, you'd think a Wolfwa would be more careful.

But Wilwa's ill, it seems. At least she's having blood tests, anyway. Which might make an ill-considered remark more likely– for an innocent as well as a wolf.

Originally Posted by Kitanna #39

Wilwa does make a point we'd be helping the second wolfpack by getting rid of the first since Pack A can't win until Pack B is gone. However, I'll have to go with the sentiment that "a wolf is a wolf" at this point. We have to lynch one before we can put him/her into a team. Still, I don't see this as a real sign against Wilwa.

Originally Posted by The EW #49

I think Wilwa's remark about not wanting to help out the other team is not suspicious. Her explantation satisfies me.

Originally Posted by Inzil #55

That remark about helping one wolf team get rid of the other was odd. I don't see how we can possibly know who belongs to what pack anyway, even if the pack indentities are given when a wolf dies. Can we really single out wolves as belonging to one pack or another? Not unless one has some inside info. Still, having blood drawn is assignable to Mordor, and I personally don't do well with needles, so I don't know if I can vote for her toDay.

Originally Posted by Kit #65

My first thought (and I should have mentioned it earlier) goes make to what Nogrod said in regards to Wilwa. After he highlighted her little bit about "helping" one team by destroying the other, I found it interesting both Nerwen and Inziladun commented on it. On Inziladun's part it was "hey yeah, this is interesting" but no further comment on it. Nerwen said something more along the lines that would Wolf-Wilwa be so careless in her speech?

Originally Posted by Izzy #72

Wilwa's comment about decreasing one pack would help the other pack - it came off as a touch sad. As if we focused on decreasing one pack (her pack). it would help the other pack, which she does not want.

As I'm in a copy-pasting mood I'll continue with the Nerwen-discussion first before coming back to some overall remarks.


EDIT: X'd with a host...
EDIT2: added Izzy-quote

[Nogrod]

On Nerwen

Kit points the edit-thing out on #39 and Nerwen immediately answers.

Originally Posted by Pitch #41

What really gives me pause is that last one - I'd have thought editing the actual content of your posts (other than typos and formatting) was an absolute no-no in WW?? Good catch, Kit.

Nerwen hopes it would not be blown out of proportion (on #42).

Originally Posted by The EW #49

I personally think that a wolf wouldn't have the nerve to edit the actual content of a post after posting without a note. So, I guess I'm turning Nerwen's bad conduct into a sign of innocence. Still, that's my opinion on the matter.

Originally Posted by Inzil #55

I don't necessarily read anything into that post edit people are concerned about. I think everyone's probably caught themselves making a error in quoting someone at some time or another.

My adding to the Nerwen's edit-issue (on #57).

Originally Posted by Inzil #58

You have a point, and I'm not at all convinced Nerwen's innocent. Still, I don't know that I can vote for her based only on that.

Originally Posted by Sally #59

Fair enough, but I've done the same thing both as an innocent and as a wolf. If I realize I've made a mistake I fix it right away, and if I don't think anyone has noticed I just don't say anything about it because it's easier, or I just plain forget to add that 'edit' at the end. Regardless of her role, it's likely the same with Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Boro #62

I side with what Nerwen said in #42. Don't make a mountain out of a mole-hill with the editting. It's questionable sportsmanship to use meta reasoning and speculation as to what and why someone was editting.

Nerwen said "yep, that's right Kit," gave an explanation. Let's leave it at that.

Originally Posted by Kit #65

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

Originally Posted by Pitch #67

About the Nerwen edit thing: much as I'm inclined to respect her wish not to see it blown out of proportion, turning the matter into a 'sign of innocence', as Tewie does in #49, is too much. After last game, I'm not sure there's anything I'd put beyond a Nerwolf. Not going to vote her without some better reason, though.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the reason I wanted to make the point on Wilwa and to continue on your point on Nerwen was that I wanted to see reactions to some open suspicions - or well, peculiarities, whatever you want to call them (with Wilwa I could say it was more or less an actual suspicion and with Nerwen maybe something that could be noteworthy if there were other concerns to add) as there had been basically none whatsoever before those two cases and we needed some actual discussion on suspicions.

Fair enough, but I'm also used to a stubborn innocence about you, and where you don't easily let go of your reasons. (I don't mean offense in those statements, I'm just as stubborn ).

Kick-starting suspicions is good, but stepping back from them (instead of continuing to argue them) and basically saying you were probing for other reactions...seems like a quite different Nogrod. Simply not confident in your opinions at this stage or wolf testing what targets he wants to go after?

*In case if it's not clear...watching you Nog.*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here just a post in course of reading the thread...

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

What is happy about confusing Inzildun with Isabellkya?

The overall tone of your discussion was just happy. But then, there was Sally present. Okay, whatever, it was not the point... just sort of that if I were to choose some Wolves from the first posters based on anything (knowing that there HAD TO be - by mere numerical count - at least one Wolf among the people who posted before me), you two could as well be it. But that said, it was because I had no more info than these opening joking posts with basically no content, as you haven't posted since then, and knowing there were some Wolves there, I just made as good guess as any.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Legate- Hmm. Lots of posting. A couple of things stand out.

In his very next post:

Nerwen- has accountably moved from someone of whom he was 'mightily scared', to 'slightly reasonable' and 'careful-ish'; he'd placed her in the 'Hard To Say' category.

No, no, these were two different things. Being "mightily scared" is a feeling: a subjective feeling, knowing that Nerwen can be a terrible Wolf, and not getting for now very good impression from her. The list I posted later was a list of my level of suspicion about people in general after a reflection about the subject.

Originally Posted by Zil

Also, was Pitch really 'applauding' you? I haven't really seen any over the top 'buttering up' of you, or anything of that nature.

Like he said, he was. Maybe not over the top, but it just scares me, for some reason. "I have a bad feeling about this."

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, about the reveals. Erm, there's three seers out there. Even I would try a reveal at some point if I was one of the wolf seers and had good dreams to go off of. (It's irrelevant, but I almost wish I were a wolf so I could do it lol.)

That being said, I don't think we should trust our seer. I mean we should, but even a wolf seer could hand over wolves (of course from the other pack, but still) and we'd never know the difference.

I would phrase it like (and I hope I understood it right, as I think that's what you meant as well): we should trust our Seer, i.e. lynch whomever he/she tells us to, but not take it as a proof that him/herself is innocent. And as Boro said, whatever Seer reveals, there will be at least one faction of Wolves (in case of a real Seer, two factions) which will want to kill him/her. Only the Wolves have the advantage that their Ranger will know their Seer, which is actually quite a major blow here. For that matter, our Ranger would be probably in the worst position when a Seer reveals, as he/she would not know whether to protect the Seer or not. It's quite a mess, I'd say. But I think we should solve the situation if/when it happens. Let's not get into too deep speculation - for now I'd just hope the Ranger could figure out the best solution for him/herself.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

Just one comment to the Nerwen issue, as I personally don't want to stretch it and don't see that a problem - I think Kitanna stated it exactly the way I would phrase it. That's not saying I would not suspect Nerwen, but I would not see the editing issue as giving any pros or cons for my suspicion. Enough said.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As if most games didn't start with banter like that for the first 10-15 posts. I'm not saying ignore it all - there can be valuable hints in banter, like a cobbler signalling to wolves or self-conscious "I'm-so-evil" jokes - , but seeing a happy wolf chat just because there was some banter, regardless of content, is stretching it.

Again, see above - it's all done considering the fact that we have fifty million Wolves this time, and it was basically clear that there was at least one Wolf among the "hello nothing nothing nothing to say" people in the first few posts. But whatever. It was "for the time being", because by now all these people are posting again and there is far more to consider.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But if you're asking for 'attack plans' in case of reveals, we should consider the possibility that the person revealing isn't necessarily the true Seer (innocent or wolvish), but a Hunter acting as mouthpiece for the real Seer in order to attract a Night-kill. The wolf-pack with a Hunterwolf could easily do this (they know each other's gifts, of course), but unless I'm mistaken about the current version of the Rules, our own gifteds could do it as well once the Seer has dreamed the Hunter.

I think that's quite a good observation here, however, what particular meaning would it have for us? It's not that it would make any difference: there will be a "Seer", nobody would know whether it's real or not, and either we all trust the person, or in some (rather hard to imagine just out of the blue) situation we decide that it's an impostor and get rid of the person - and if it's a Wolf, it would be a Wolf, regardless whether Seer or Hunter. Okay, if it's a Hunter, it would mean a kill of one person. Okay, now maybe I get it - the one thing that would be hard is if a Seer (real Seer) counter-revealed, then the impostor was lynched, turned out to be a Hunter, and killed the Seer (who has foolishly revealed). But that's quite a complicated situation to imagine, again, at least I think so.

Okay! But that's it for now, I would like to vote soon, also Lommy sitting next to me looks like she'll be about finishing her post, so now I will sort my thoughts on people and then vote and that's it, I think.

[Kitanna]

I hate that I have to do it this way, knowing full well the possible repercussions of such an early vote, but I need to get back to work.

Here's the only person that has popped out to me more than once at this point.

++Inziladun

Nogrod pointed out Wilwa's post about "helping" one wolf team by eliminating the other. Inziladun agrees. Nogrod points out Nerwen's editing and how she didn't make it public. Again Inziladun agrees, but doesn't really cast suspicion on Wilwa or Nerwen.

Before Norgrod says anything about Nerwen Inziladun says:

I don't necessarily read anything into that post edit people are concerned about. I think everyone's probably caught themselves making a error in quoting someone at some time or another.

After Norgrod posts, he says:

You have a point, and I'm not at all convinced Nerwen's innocent. Still, I don't know that I can vote for her based only on that.

Granted he never said he thought Nerwen was innocent or anything, but he changes his tune from her edit was just a mistake to she's suspicious because of it and all in light of someone else's comment.

I wish I could stay longer and didn't have to vote so hastily, but such as life I suppose.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What do you mean wilwa with that bolded part there? Are you saying that it is a positive thing that there are two wolf-rangers who can protect their mates from the rivalling team's attacks? Isn't that just the contrary and one more reason to get rid of one whole team asap.?

Uh, honestly I hadn't even thought of that. I see Ranger and I automatically think they're on our side, I'm not used to the idea of an evilRanger, but yes of course they would protect their fellow wolves. I guess cause even the evil Hunter can help us out if they hunt one of the other pack, and the evil Unicorn can bring an innocent back to life, so I suppose I had the idea of 3 Rangers being a good thing. That was my mistake.

Originally Posted by Nog

So do you think we should refrain ourselves from lynching wolves as lynching a wolf from pack A is "helping" pack B?

No, that is not what I think.

Look, I'm gonna stop explaining this. Day 1 I talk about the rules, I talk about the statistics and our chances of winning, it's what I do. That's all I was doing, I was just trying to wrap my mind around our situation and be sure that we hadn't missed something. I see now that what I was saying was rather pointless, since there's no way to tell what pack a certain suspect could belong to, I was just talking, trying to stir up talk, I obviously hadn't thought of every possible scenario.

*is exhausted*

About the Seer reveals. I think if someone comes forward we should lynch those they say are a wolf, but not necessarily trust those that they say are innocent. Like a wolfseer could reveal the identity of a wolf from the other pack, so we should take all wolf identity reveals seriously, even though there's a chance they're lying, but then the next day we just have a wolf anyway. When it comes to a seer revealer saying someone is innocent though, we shouldn't take that as seriously, I'd say we should almost ignore it until we can be more sure about the seer's side. Since a seer wolf could say one of their mates is innocent, then reveal a wolf from the other pack, and we might think since they were right about the wolf then the one they say is innocent must actually be, when they may not. Does that make sense?

Originally Posted by Sally

Good points here, dear. I mean the wolves are in just as much trouble as we are. To me the people who are playing Chicken Little look bad, because they're making people panic and when people panic they make mistakes. Is that what they want, perhaps? I mean seriously. Why make it seem so bad for the innocents, when really it's just as bad for the wolves and they're in even bigger trouble than we are? I'm just sayin', it seems like tactical fear mongering, not actual concern.

That whole highlighted part bugs me, just the feel of it. I'm all for optimism, but the way that she seems so against those who are just being realistic about our chances, and the "making people panic" thing. I don't know, I just don't like it. (though I'll admit I have just skimmed through everything and so don't have an accurate feel on her with regards to all her posts, this one was just the last one so I read it more thorougly, I'll look more closely at everyone later).

I don't think Nerwen's editing thing is a big deal at all, I mean it's not like she does it all the time or anything. I think some are making a bit too big a deal out of it. Besides, even innocent people worry about looking suspicious and do stuff to avoid that, avoiding suspicion is not only something wolves do.

I should be back on randomly until DL. I'll probably wait longer to vote since on Day 2 my vote will have to be rediculously early, I want this one to be more thought out.

x'ed since Sally at 63