T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

I totally agree with the first one and I only said the wolves are more conscious of it - and thus more ready to make last-moment changes.

But the reason I wanted to make the point on Wilwa and to continue on your point on Nerwen was that I wanted to see reactions to some open suspicions - or well, peculiarities, whatever you want to call them (with Wilwa I could say it was more or less an actual suspicion and with Nerwen maybe something that could be noteworthy if there were other concerns to add) as there had been basically none whatsoever before those two cases and we needed some actual discussion on suspicions.

I'm going back now to read those up as my bedtime is approaching. Back soonish with some ideas on how it went.

[Nogrod]

On Wilwa

My posts #28 & #31

Originally Posted by Pitch #33

I have to concur with Nog's answer to this one. Whether or not we should halve the Night-kills if we can is not a question which should cause an innocent much headaches, especially not an experienced player like wilwa.
Conclusion so far: this last post does worry me - looks like contributing, but is really quite wishy-washy, confused and confusing. Most suspicious thing I've seen up to now.

Originally Posted by Lommy #34

I agree with Nogrod that the solution to Wilwa's question is easy. Once we catch a wolf, we should go for those who look like his/her packmates so we can lessen the horrible killing rate. Although of course we still shouldn't ignore other people who look wolvish.

Originally Posted by Inzil #36

That's an interesting observation about Wilwa. I'll keep it in mind.

Originally Posted by Nerwen #37

That is indeed a highly peculiar thing to say. Though, you'd think a Wolfwa would be more careful.

But Wilwa's ill, it seems. At least she's having blood tests, anyway. Which might make an ill-considered remark more likely– for an innocent as well as a wolf.

Originally Posted by Kitanna #39

Wilwa does make a point we'd be helping the second wolfpack by getting rid of the first since Pack A can't win until Pack B is gone. However, I'll have to go with the sentiment that "a wolf is a wolf" at this point. We have to lynch one before we can put him/her into a team. Still, I don't see this as a real sign against Wilwa.

Originally Posted by The EW #49

I think Wilwa's remark about not wanting to help out the other team is not suspicious. Her explantation satisfies me.

Originally Posted by Inzil #55

That remark about helping one wolf team get rid of the other was odd. I don't see how we can possibly know who belongs to what pack anyway, even if the pack indentities are given when a wolf dies. Can we really single out wolves as belonging to one pack or another? Not unless one has some inside info. Still, having blood drawn is assignable to Mordor, and I personally don't do well with needles, so I don't know if I can vote for her toDay.

Originally Posted by Kit #65

My first thought (and I should have mentioned it earlier) goes make to what Nogrod said in regards to Wilwa. After he highlighted her little bit about "helping" one team by destroying the other, I found it interesting both Nerwen and Inziladun commented on it. On Inziladun's part it was "hey yeah, this is interesting" but no further comment on it. Nerwen said something more along the lines that would Wolf-Wilwa be so careless in her speech?

Originally Posted by Izzy #72

Wilwa's comment about decreasing one pack would help the other pack - it came off as a touch sad. As if we focused on decreasing one pack (her pack). it would help the other pack, which she does not want.

As I'm in a copy-pasting mood I'll continue with the Nerwen-discussion first before coming back to some overall remarks.


EDIT: X'd with a host...
EDIT2: added Izzy-quote

[Nogrod]

On Nerwen

Kit points the edit-thing out on #39 and Nerwen immediately answers.

Originally Posted by Pitch #41

What really gives me pause is that last one - I'd have thought editing the actual content of your posts (other than typos and formatting) was an absolute no-no in WW?? Good catch, Kit.

Nerwen hopes it would not be blown out of proportion (on #42).

Originally Posted by The EW #49

I personally think that a wolf wouldn't have the nerve to edit the actual content of a post after posting without a note. So, I guess I'm turning Nerwen's bad conduct into a sign of innocence. Still, that's my opinion on the matter.

Originally Posted by Inzil #55

I don't necessarily read anything into that post edit people are concerned about. I think everyone's probably caught themselves making a error in quoting someone at some time or another.

My adding to the Nerwen's edit-issue (on #57).

Originally Posted by Inzil #58

You have a point, and I'm not at all convinced Nerwen's innocent. Still, I don't know that I can vote for her based only on that.

Originally Posted by Sally #59

Fair enough, but I've done the same thing both as an innocent and as a wolf. If I realize I've made a mistake I fix it right away, and if I don't think anyone has noticed I just don't say anything about it because it's easier, or I just plain forget to add that 'edit' at the end. Regardless of her role, it's likely the same with Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Boro #62

I side with what Nerwen said in #42. Don't make a mountain out of a mole-hill with the editting. It's questionable sportsmanship to use meta reasoning and speculation as to what and why someone was editting.

Nerwen said "yep, that's right Kit," gave an explanation. Let's leave it at that.

Originally Posted by Kit #65

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

Originally Posted by Pitch #67

About the Nerwen edit thing: much as I'm inclined to respect her wish not to see it blown out of proportion, turning the matter into a 'sign of innocence', as Tewie does in #49, is too much. After last game, I'm not sure there's anything I'd put beyond a Nerwolf. Not going to vote her without some better reason, though.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the reason I wanted to make the point on Wilwa and to continue on your point on Nerwen was that I wanted to see reactions to some open suspicions - or well, peculiarities, whatever you want to call them (with Wilwa I could say it was more or less an actual suspicion and with Nerwen maybe something that could be noteworthy if there were other concerns to add) as there had been basically none whatsoever before those two cases and we needed some actual discussion on suspicions.

Fair enough, but I'm also used to a stubborn innocence about you, and where you don't easily let go of your reasons. (I don't mean offense in those statements, I'm just as stubborn ).

Kick-starting suspicions is good, but stepping back from them (instead of continuing to argue them) and basically saying you were probing for other reactions...seems like a quite different Nogrod. Simply not confident in your opinions at this stage or wolf testing what targets he wants to go after?

*In case if it's not clear...watching you Nog.*

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Kick-starting suspicions is good, but stepping back from them (instead of continuing to argue them) and basically saying you were probing for other reactions...seems like a quite different Nogrod.

YEah, I should add this, once again (I thought of adding it to my last post but then thought it would be just explaining too much).

So I didn't come up with the points against Wilwa and Nerwen randomly. There were things there which made me wonder and even suspect them. On Day1 that's always a treat. But I'm not saying they are my top suspects toDay, that is not anymore. And that in turn is because how some people have reacted to the discussion about the two.

Yeah, probing is the right term; to see whether other people's ideas make me suspect the two more with added reasons, or whether they manage to make me turn my gaze to those commenting the two in suspicious ways whilst lured to quit the banter.

My vote is probably going to someone else indeed.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Wilwa I can excuse by her loss of blood

Actually, even if I was feeling top shape today I probably would have said many of the same things (just maybe more coherently). I seem to always see the game quite differently then everyone else and therefore come out with some things that usually shock people. Basically I'm not trying to use my illness as an accuse or a free pass or anything, since it probably isn't the reason for my crazy thinking, just maybe my confusing communication of the crazy thinking...

Originally Posted by Lommy

But I still think it makes the most sense to kill the wolf-packs one by one

Overall I agree with this, I'm just scared that that could make it easier for the other wolf team. But it's already been said a ton of times that either way it's not like we can act on either plan, we can't control which wolf pack we lynch from.


I have a feeling I'm going to have a difficult time finding someone to vote for. I have some weird vibes from some, like Sally for her anti-realism, and Shasta's Nilpyness (which I find funny, but unhelpful/unnecessary), and Pitch, but I think I always get bad vibes from him Day 1, then usually feel better later on, so I likely wouldn't vote for him. I do feel quite good about Kit, Izzy and Lommy, and Nog and Inzil aswell, since they all seem to act the way I would expect them too. So I'm not sure yet.

x'ed with a few

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here just a post in course of reading the thread...

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

What is happy about confusing Inzildun with Isabellkya?

The overall tone of your discussion was just happy. But then, there was Sally present. Okay, whatever, it was not the point... just sort of that if I were to choose some Wolves from the first posters based on anything (knowing that there HAD TO be - by mere numerical count - at least one Wolf among the people who posted before me), you two could as well be it. But that said, it was because I had no more info than these opening joking posts with basically no content, as you haven't posted since then, and knowing there were some Wolves there, I just made as good guess as any.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Legate- Hmm. Lots of posting. A couple of things stand out.

In his very next post:

Nerwen- has accountably moved from someone of whom he was 'mightily scared', to 'slightly reasonable' and 'careful-ish'; he'd placed her in the 'Hard To Say' category.

No, no, these were two different things. Being "mightily scared" is a feeling: a subjective feeling, knowing that Nerwen can be a terrible Wolf, and not getting for now very good impression from her. The list I posted later was a list of my level of suspicion about people in general after a reflection about the subject.

Originally Posted by Zil

Also, was Pitch really 'applauding' you? I haven't really seen any over the top 'buttering up' of you, or anything of that nature.

Like he said, he was. Maybe not over the top, but it just scares me, for some reason. "I have a bad feeling about this."

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also, about the reveals. Erm, there's three seers out there. Even I would try a reveal at some point if I was one of the wolf seers and had good dreams to go off of. (It's irrelevant, but I almost wish I were a wolf so I could do it lol.)

That being said, I don't think we should trust our seer. I mean we should, but even a wolf seer could hand over wolves (of course from the other pack, but still) and we'd never know the difference.

I would phrase it like (and I hope I understood it right, as I think that's what you meant as well): we should trust our Seer, i.e. lynch whomever he/she tells us to, but not take it as a proof that him/herself is innocent. And as Boro said, whatever Seer reveals, there will be at least one faction of Wolves (in case of a real Seer, two factions) which will want to kill him/her. Only the Wolves have the advantage that their Ranger will know their Seer, which is actually quite a major blow here. For that matter, our Ranger would be probably in the worst position when a Seer reveals, as he/she would not know whether to protect the Seer or not. It's quite a mess, I'd say. But I think we should solve the situation if/when it happens. Let's not get into too deep speculation - for now I'd just hope the Ranger could figure out the best solution for him/herself.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I agree with him on the fact she chose not to make her change public. However, I think innocents are just as conscious to what is being posted because they're as likely as a wolf to be lynched for mistyping or misconstruing their point. No one wants to be killed regardless of side and I don't follow Nogrod's reasoning completely on Nerwen as suspicious because what player isn't conscious of mistakes they make?

Just one comment to the Nerwen issue, as I personally don't want to stretch it and don't see that a problem - I think Kitanna stated it exactly the way I would phrase it. That's not saying I would not suspect Nerwen, but I would not see the editing issue as giving any pros or cons for my suspicion. Enough said.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As if most games didn't start with banter like that for the first 10-15 posts. I'm not saying ignore it all - there can be valuable hints in banter, like a cobbler signalling to wolves or self-conscious "I'm-so-evil" jokes - , but seeing a happy wolf chat just because there was some banter, regardless of content, is stretching it.

Again, see above - it's all done considering the fact that we have fifty million Wolves this time, and it was basically clear that there was at least one Wolf among the "hello nothing nothing nothing to say" people in the first few posts. But whatever. It was "for the time being", because by now all these people are posting again and there is far more to consider.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But if you're asking for 'attack plans' in case of reveals, we should consider the possibility that the person revealing isn't necessarily the true Seer (innocent or wolvish), but a Hunter acting as mouthpiece for the real Seer in order to attract a Night-kill. The wolf-pack with a Hunterwolf could easily do this (they know each other's gifts, of course), but unless I'm mistaken about the current version of the Rules, our own gifteds could do it as well once the Seer has dreamed the Hunter.

I think that's quite a good observation here, however, what particular meaning would it have for us? It's not that it would make any difference: there will be a "Seer", nobody would know whether it's real or not, and either we all trust the person, or in some (rather hard to imagine just out of the blue) situation we decide that it's an impostor and get rid of the person - and if it's a Wolf, it would be a Wolf, regardless whether Seer or Hunter. Okay, if it's a Hunter, it would mean a kill of one person. Okay, now maybe I get it - the one thing that would be hard is if a Seer (real Seer) counter-revealed, then the impostor was lynched, turned out to be a Hunter, and killed the Seer (who has foolishly revealed). But that's quite a complicated situation to imagine, again, at least I think so.

Okay! But that's it for now, I would like to vote soon, also Lommy sitting next to me looks like she'll be about finishing her post, so now I will sort my thoughts on people and then vote and that's it, I think.

[The Elf-warrior]

I think I know who the wolves are. I'm guessing Inzy, Pitchwife, Kitanna and Boromir. Anybody want to confess? I won't have much time to read and post in the rest of toDAY, what with work and a school event coming up. Inzy, I'm not gonna be nice to you just because you've accused me. This is war! Nogrod said you seem opportunistic, and I'm inclined to agree. And the math is against you. I know its also against me, but I know who I am.

I suspect Legate's packmates posted after him. I suspect people have a tendency not to look as carefully at the person who says so many wolves must have posted before me. He talked about how at least one or three wolves had posted by various points. Would he have drawn the spotlight on his packmates like that?

Pitchwife is probably not Legate's packmate with all their fighting. So, I speculate that Inzy and Pitchwife are from team Ladybug and Kitanna and Boromir are from Team Aphid. Now I could be be off base, but these are my opinions. I'm just gonna go ahead and vote. I'll be back in a bit.

++Inziladun

[The Elf-warrior]

Legate and numbers on DAY 1:

Originally Posted by Legate Post #27

By the way: just by mere numbers, AT LEAST THREE of the people who have posted this far MUST BE Wolves. From Morsul's post earlier on (Morsul's included), there must be at least one Wolf among the people posting. When one sees it like this it's actually quite scary.

Originally Posted by "" #80

Okay, whatever, it was not the point... just sort of that if I were to choose some Wolves from the first posters based on anything (knowing that there HAD TO be - by mere numerical count - at least one Wolf among the people who posted before me), you two could as well be it.

He was talking about Sally and me, in case you're wondering. Another thing. The fighting I mentioned was so bad Legate voted for Pitchwife. If I had to guess which one of my above wolf picks is wrong, I'd say Kitanna because Legate and Lommy were in separate packs. That's enough for the night. Bye.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I think I know who the wolves are. I'm guessing Inzy, Pitchwife, Kitanna and Boromir. Anybody want to confess? I won't have much time to read and post in the rest of toDAY, what with work and a school event coming up. Inzy, I'm not gonna be nice to you just because you've accused me. This is war! Nogrod said you seem opportunistic, and I'm inclined to agree. And the math is against you. I know its also against me, but I know who I am.

The post in which I 'accused' you was actually meant to be one of several similar recap-and commentaries that would look at others as well. I ran out of time, but it was interesting to see the reactions.
Your response yesterDay actually had me thinking I should turn my attention away from you toDay, as your tone appeared as if it could be that of a genuine innocent. You didn't have the aggressive tone you show now.
It does appear that you largely parrot what Nog said, about me and the identities of the remaining wolves. You also take pains to say you agree with Nog, the known innocent, when Pitch also criticised my 'case' against you, and did so before Nog.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I suspect Legate's packmates posted after him. I suspect people have a tendency not to look as carefully at the person who says so many wolves must have posted before me. He talked about how at least one or three wolves had posted by various points. Would he have drawn the spotlight on his packmates like that?

What quote by Legate are you referring to?

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Pitchwife is probably not Legate's packmate with all their fighting. So, I speculate that Inzy and Pitchwife are from team Ladybug and Kitanna and Boromir are from Team Aphid. Now I could be be off base, but these are my opinions. I'm just gonna go ahead and vote. I'll be back in a bit.

So you think Kit is Legate's packmate, despite the fact that she voted for him before Nog revealed his dream?

[Isabellkya]

So... we just have to point in a direction, and the probability of hitting a wolf is quite high, yes?

Wilwa is "claiming" a role. How do you know there is one WereUnicorn and one WereHunter each Wilwa? I thought the rules said, "and either a WereUnicorn or a Hunter!wolf." Unless somewhere it said there was only going to be one of each total....

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

So you think Kit is Legate's packmate, despite the fact that she voted for him before Nog revealed his dream?

The problem is it doesn't matter what wolf is with what pack at this point, and wilwa declaring she's the anti-lover, there's 4 wolves amongst

Kit
Pitchie
Zil
Elfie
Izzy

I don't care who's with who, I just want to get one stinkin wolf today with those odds.

So, wilwa, it seems like you're in a pretty interesting position. Obviously you must look out for your own win, but you know we have to look out for our win too. That doesn't mean we can't work together. We need your help, simple as that. If I can convince you, your best chance at winning is to help the village, will you?

Too long have you sat in the shadows and held a love scorned.
The day I heard what the wretch did to you was the first day I mourned.
Help us and I will show you what it means to love again.
Because darling, my care for you has just began.

What do you say? Let bygones be bygones? Shasta I mean.