Arda Cup Football 2010

[Nogrod]

The AKM comes forwards with the team qualifying bettings from the official MESPN Online Betting Industry Inc..

So how has the ME football community bet on the games thus far? Find it out from here and check your bets against the others!

First the group phase: so who is qualifying, who’s first, who’s second?

The percentages are: coming first – coming second – not qualifying

A
Aman 50% - 10% - 40%
Vinyamar 40% - 60% - 0%
Ithilien 10% - 30% - 60%
Beleriand 0% - 0% - 100%

B
Barad-Dûr 60% - 20% - 20%
‘Downs 40% - 40% - 20%
Gorgoroth 30% - 0% - 70%
Breeland 0% - 10% - 90%

C
Mithrim 60% - 30% - 10%
Pelennor 20% - 20% - 60%
Norbury 10% - 30% - 60%
Nargothrond 10% - 20% - 70%

D
Eithel Sirion 90% - 10% - 0%
Rohan 0% - 60% - 40%
Gelion 10% - 20% - 70%
Dale 0% - 10% - 90%

E
Utumno 60% - 30% - 10%
Numenor 30% - 50% - 20%
Rivendell 0% - 20% - 80%
Misty Mts. 10% - 0% - 90%

F
Thangorodr. 60% - 30% -10%
Valimar 30% - 40% - 30%
Bywater 10% - 20% - 70%
Lorien 0% - 10% - 90%

G
Gondolin 90% - 0% - 0%
Wold 0% - 60% - 40%
Gondor 10% - 20% - 70%
Doriath 0% - 20% - 80%

H
Tirion 80% - 0% - 0%
Havens 10% - 40% - 50%
Dol Guldur 10% - 30% - 60%
Minas Anor 0% - 20% - 80%



Results on other betting…


Most goals

30% of the betting goes for Fëanor making the most goals. Sauron and Túrin get 20% and Maedhros, Scatha and Tar Minastir have a 10% following each. There sure are a lot of plausible candidates left, not to talk of possible wild cards.

Most assists

This a lot more contested category. Only Nerdanel manages to pick 20% of the betting. Other candidates that have been bet on are: Beorn, Eowyn, Eöl, Ingwë, Melkor, Nienna, Sauron and the phantom.

To win

For the overal win of the tournament there is an interesting tie between four teams: Barrow-Downs, Mithrim, Tirion and Utumno have all gotten 20% of the betting thus far. Gondolin and Thangorodrim have received 10%. With six teams being bet on winning one might think the winner is already there, but watch it…


Betting on the most total phantasy points scored:

Keepers

With the keepers the betting has been overwhelming for Huan. He has gotten 50% of the bets. With a 10% share there are Elrond, Maglor, Melian, Nienna and Shelob. Huan is a quality keeper but clearly overrated. Any risk-taker could now capitalize with picking an unbet goalie.

Defenders

With defenders it’s basically the mirror-image of the goalie-betting. Only Curufin has managed to gather 20% of the bets as yet. All the other players bet have only 10% behind them, namely: Asfaloth, Balrog #4, Glaurung, Nessa, Shadowfax, skip spence, Tar Telperion and Treebeard.

Midfielders

With midfielders one gets an interesting picture. Melkor rules with 40% of the beting but Durin’s Bane challenges him with 30%. That is a tough race. But there are others to be sure. Those bet on already are Elros, Hador and Sally. Pretty good picks everyone of them. And there are a host of competitive challengers out and about.

Forwards

Not perhaps unexpectedly Fëanor leads the betting with 40% of betters relying on him. Túrin is a good second with 20% of the betting behind him. Other players to have been bet on are Maedhros, Miriel, Nerdanel and Wilwa.

[the phantom]

GROUP A
Beleriand vs Ithilien
Aman vs Vinyamar

GROUP B
Barad-Dur vs Barrow-Downs
Breeland vs Gorgoroth

GROUP C
Mithrim vs Pelennor
Nargothrond vs Norbury

GROUP D
Dale vs Rohan
Eithel Sirion vs Gelion

GROUP E
Numenor vs Rivendell
Misty Mts vs Utumno

GROUP F
Bywater vs Thangorodrim
Lorien vs Valimar

GROUP G
Gondolin vs Wold
Doriath vs Gondor

GROUP H
Dol Guldur vs Tirion
Havens vs Minas Anor

[Nogrod]

Group C at Amon Sûl

The MEFA authorities offered Fornost Erain – familiarly called The Deadmen’s Dike – to host group C. The Arthedain were pleased for the honour but as the rebuilding of Norbury was still far from accomplished they asked to host the games at Amon Sûl instead. The fully rebuilt tower laid a majestic backdrop to the stadium they built on its feet.

The Weathertop-Arena was not the most grand or lavish venue there was, but it was dashingly modern while it’s architecture honoured the surroundings and the great tower of Amon Sûl. From far away it looked like the stadium was embedded into the hillside, being a part of it.

The most expensive suites at the tower offered some real glamour for the spectators able to finance such lodgings – and a great view to the game from individual balconies. As a bonus the spectators would be shown live-coverage from all the matches going on at other locations via the restored palantir of Amon Sûl.

Before the first games the mood was congenial even if all the fans were naturally looking forwards to their team’s performance and somewhat nervous about their chances. After all the quality of the players in every team was astonishing: noble kings, great warriors, marvellous beasts…

No one seemed to question Mithrim’s first place in the group. But who was going to be the second qualifier? The home fans were convincend the northener’s would claim it, but it would be tough for the hosts.


Fornost Post managed to pick Curufin from after Mithrim’s last practise-session to share a few thoughts on the competition.


Fornost post: Most people are betting heavily on your team to qualify as number one from this group. How do you see your position and who are your toughest competitors?

Curufin: Well, we’ll take one match at the time. First we need to concentrate on winning Pelennor. They’re quite an offensive team but I believe that together with my bro and his hound we’ll keep them at bay.

Fornost Post: How about the home team? How do you see their chances?

Curufin: They say playing in front of your homecrowd gives you boost worth an additional player in the field. But as a team of expats we’re used to fighting on a strange soil... and shorthanded.

Fornost Post: Nargothrond has been a disappointment to many. How do you see their situation?

Curufin: They’ve given a good fight to every team they have met. One should never underestimate king Finrod – and my son will surely rise to the occasion come real matches.

Fornost Post: But which team of the other three will follow you to the qualifying rounds?

Curufin: Let’s play the games first, shall we? *heads away*

Fornost Post: Some people say that your forwards Túrin, Beleg and Húrin haven’t quite played to their level. Would you comment on that?

*Curufin is gone*


Group E at Goblin Town

Hithaeglir was offered to host group E of the Arda Cup this year on the basis that the other teams had already hosted so many events in the previous tournaments. The explanation was generally accepted but a few noticed that Utumno had only hosted games once before. Was Utumno played out in the cabinets? Happily Melkor and his crew didn’t feel like protesting. Actually Misty Mountains fit them just fine even if they didn’t comment on that in public: of the other venues Misty Mts. was by far the most hospitable to them – well they were created by Melkor in the first place - and now they could claim the right to host more important games later in the tournament. So who tricked whom?

After some tough negotiations between the different sides of the Misty Mountains team the venue was built, as a compromise, into the slopes of the High Pass near the entrance to the Goblin Town. They copied the idea from Rivendell’s new stadium built the year before and hew most of the seats straight into the mountain itself using a small valley as a base for the field. And they built it huge! There were reasons to believe this group would draw in a host of spectators from different races but still some wondered whether the organisators had overdone it. With a capacity of 110 000 spectators the new High Pass Stadium was one of the largest stadiums in the whole Middle Earth.

But a more pressing concern was keeping the peace during the games. With zillion goblins hosting eagles, dwarves, elves, numenorians and all the Melkor’s following it was clear the situation was explosive. Melkor had personally promised to take care of the order if any problems would arise but the MEFA authorities weren’t too convinced. It was only after a deal was reached that every team would take care of any rebel-rousers from their own followers the games were good to go.


Before the tournament the Great Goblin gave press conference to the media.


The AKM: What do you think of the security situation? There has been some rows already even before the games have started and all the tourists have poured in…

The Great Goblin: They’ve been minor skirmishes and they have been dealt with swiftly and efficiently. And that’s the way any disturbances will be dealt.

The AKM: What would you say to those who claim that your own team’s style of play is actually inspiring some of the violence? Looking at the number of cards your team…

GG: We have been treated wrongly by the referees. Football is a physical sport and that’s the game we play. Our eagles especially have been the victims of that misguided refereeing – who would have known in the earlier days I’d plea for the eagles… *laughs in the audience* Anyway. After Utumno’s balrogs are set loose you see what I mean with physical game and the referees just have to accept it.

The AKM: Are you suggesting that the referees will be intimidated to judge in the way that fits you and Utumno? Isn’t that quite bold?

GG: Next question please.