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Old 04-14-2010, 10:01 AM   #1
Nerwen
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Nogrod, Day Three

#486
Examines "Glirdy-wagon", wondering "were the wolves trying to save Sally or are the wolves having a nightmarish start to the game?" Looks at the implications for Glirdan-voters in the scenarios that Glirdan was guilty and that he was innocent. If innocent, all three would look bad; if guilty, Lommy would look good but Skip and Inzil not so much, especially Zil.


#488. Clarifies a sentence in previous post.


#490
Looks at "those who walked their own paths" by not voting the favourites (Greenie, Agan, Shasta and Mira.) Finds all their votes somewhat suspicious and "would bet a lot for there being a wolf in this group - like in the group of Glirdy-voters".


#491
Looks at the Sally-voters. His own vote, Brinn's, Legate's and winty's look good; mine and Morsul's could go either way; Glirdy's was just self-preservation "whatever his role"; no comment on Nienna.

Comments: What's wrong with this post? Nothing– except that eight people voted Sally. How often has there not been a wolf in a bandwagon that big? And yet, he's "betting" on there being wolves only in the other, smaller groups.


#514.Announces he's back.


#521
Discusses Nienna, whose vote sealed Sally's fate
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
Now if Glirdan is innocent that looks quite good (which doeasn't mean Nienna couldn't have done it as a wolf) but if Glirdy is a wolf it tells us nothing.
–Finds Skip's defence of Glirdan "interesting", but only from the point of view that a Skipwolf would be afraid of having Glirdan lynched and shown to be innocent, thus exposing Skipwolf's evil intentions in voting him.

Comments: The first point is fine, though it's odd that the voter who did most to kill the wolf is the one he seems to find least innocent. The other is just weird– really contorted reasoning. Why couldn't they both be wolves? Isn't that the first thing that springs to mind? (He does mention that possibility a bit later, but only in passing.)


#525
Responding to Agan, says that Greenie's suspicion of him is probably just due to her desire to be original, or because she read his comments to Sally "in some idiosyncratic fashion", or because he has been "a little less in the frontline this time", or because "in the end she has not played that many games with me". Doesn't suspect her much, but questions her shifting attitude to Glirdan. Is suddenly talking about Glirdan as though he knows he's a wolf– however, this is probably just for the sake of the argument, though he doesn't state that.

–Agrees with Zil that he'd find him suspicious whether Glirdan was innocent or guilty.

Comments: Naturally, anyone would want to defend himself when another player expresses strong suspicion– yet this way of smoothly explaining away Greenie's attack to a third party does look more than a bit sinister in the light of her role.


#529Praises Shasta for spotting an odd similarity in the wording of Agan and Legate's vote-posts:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nogrod
There is at least the shared kind of lazyness "you all know he is suspicious so I'll just vote him for it and not bother to make my points against him".
#539
Votes Glirdan (Glirdan 4) but is not happy with this, pointing out that Sally and Glirdan's early bantering was just IC and that Glirdan tends to be a suspicion magnet. Says it would be useful to know his alignment however. Says Innocent!Glirdan would make Lommy, Zil and Skip look bad, while Wolf!Glirdan would make Shasta, Mira, Greenie and Agan look bad.


#541
"Undecided" about Mira, finds Greenie "innocentish".

General Comments: well, he doesn't come out of it looking nearly as bad as Glirdan did when I analysed him– but on the whole I'd say he's "leaning furry".

EDIT:X'd since Morsul at #597.
EDIT2:word left out.
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Last edited by Nerwen; 04-15-2010 at 08:39 PM.
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Old 04-14-2010, 10:11 AM   #2
Mirandir
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Hey guys sorry for not being around yesterDay. Finals week got a little more ridiculous than I though (ie I got fired from my job for bulls**t reasons). Unfortunately, my participation today won't be much better since I'll be in a car with my parents for the majority of it.

Before I take off though, I really don't like the way Morsul looks today. Given, I haven't actually read all that closely yet, but he's talked more toDay than he has the entire game. That to me is suspicious.

Hopefully when I get home tonight I'll be able to actually back that statement up.
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