WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Thinlómien]

Decided to post my massive post in three parts. Two other parts still in progress...


General issues

Since I was rereading the thread I managed to glimpse the rules and noticed the Unicorn, of whom I had completely forgotten about. So we do have a chance to get Greenie back and tell her dreams! Yay. But of course, we shouldn't put our hopes in that, the possibilty that the Unicorn is going to bring her back and not someone else is quite slight...


Who could Miss Greenie have dreamt of on Night1?

people who didn't post anything before she left: -
people who only posted banter etc until after she left: Mira, Shasta, Boro (she xed with Boro's first serious post when she left)

Now, it's possible she dreamt of wolf Shasta on Night1, but then she would have come out if she also dreamt of wolf Nogrod, and as I feel quite confident about Nog's guilt, I think she didn't dream of Shasta ('cos she couldn't have dreamt of innocent Shasta either). However, if Nogrod turns out innocent, then looking at Shasta would make sense.

I think her Night1 dream was Boro or innocent Mira, her Night2 dream was innocent Skippy and her Night3 dream was wolf Nogrod. Ergo (at least until I complete my analysis on the wolves), Skip looks good to me, Mira possibly a bit better than before and Nogrod quite bad.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm quite irritated with the light of my life for being the next person to steal my thunder. I did say I was coming back.

Ah well.

Lommy, you might be about to address this in your "megapost", but do you have a reason for thinking Boro was Greenie's dream for Night 1?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Lommy, you might be about to address this in your "megapost", but do you have a reason for thinking Boro was Greenie's dream for Night 1?

Not really, except for that everything else seems more unlikely. That's the Night whose dream I'm the most unsure of.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am back here, but I feel sort of... exhausted. Well, been walking around the city for three hours straight and then two hours with an one-hour pause... spent the last half an hour with partially reading and partially eating. I think I will spend some time with the latter yet. My hands really don't feel like typing (although I have no idea what they have to do with walking, but it simply is like that), so for now I will limit myself to few one-line comments.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Uh-oh... This doesn't make any sense.

I mean really. There was that "you are no seer" -thing, but that's basically the only thing one could say that would hint towards her being the seer. So the wolves got really lucky this time. But getting lucky doesn't explain why they chose her. For some actual reason or just to confuse us?

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?

Well I'm not impressed by that interpretation but at the moment I can't think of a better one.

Btw. I do appreciate the effort of trying to figure out whom she dreamt of but as you can see, Greenie was clearly intentionally ambiguous about her knowledge... to a point we have no way of "knowing" anything from her posting (we should read her closely and try to form some opinions of them to be sure but I'm afraid that we can't quite trust those interpretations fully). It's always a bit unfair to speak bad of the dead, but I really think she should have been a tad more forthcoming with her knowledge. Maybe she felt she was safe, but going to N4 without giving even one clear hint is a little reckless.

And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them.

I do think Greenie is smart enough to have gathered that.

Well, but obviously she didn't. One thing that comes to my mind is that if she didn't have really any strong support for her claim, especially if she e.g. has dreamed about some people who were already dead, she wouldn't dare to come forth. Heck, there is even the unlikely scenario that she dreamed about ONLY the dead people. (Although that's of course a bit over the top.) Anyway, I think Nogrod is a bit too "pessimistic" here - or also deliberately covering the fact that he killed Greenie. In any case, not being able to uncover anything is one thing, but denying the possibility and not even trying is another.

There are, from my point of view, basically two options. Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod. I can't see much of any other possibility behind these two and thus will be probably voting according to it toDay.

I agree with what Lommy says, and with what Brinn says here:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I do think the possibility of a Nogwolf is realistic. For one thing, I wouldn't be at all surprised that Greenie would choose to dream Nogrod, especially seeing the single comment she wrote about him before Day 3. And again, I don't see why the wolves would've chosen to kill her, unless they had a reason to suspect she was the seer. Her comments on Nogrod are the only ones that look potentially seerish...everything else she says seems a bit too vague. The question is would a Nogwolf kill Greenie knowing that if she is the seer it might put him in the spotlight? At this point, I think so. With half the team and their cobbler down, the wolves aren't exactly in a good position and couldn't afford a seer reveal. And a seer reveal could've been quite likely toDay considering Greenie might've been a heavy suspect after yesterDay. Looking suspicious is better than becoming a known wolf. If Nogrod is a wolf, it's best to keep in mind he would've been well aware that killing her would make him look suspicious if she did turn out as the seer, so I imagine that a Nogwolf would come into toDay prepared to defend himself.

Now it could just be that Greenie was killed at random, a lucky guess from the wolves that also frames an innocent Nogrod. But I still have trouble believing that simply because I wouldn't understand why the wolves would kill someone who had the possibility of getting lynched toDay unless they had reason to believe she need to be eliminated.

Let me also note that if Nog was a Wolf, if he suspected Greenie of dreaming of him, by leaving the Seer alive one more Night, he would also risk another of his fellows (i.e. the last one, in this scenario) being dreamt about, so it would definitely come to eliminating her as first priority. (Not to speak of the fact that if she revealed, the Ranger would've likely protected her at least for one Night.)

The main point for the reasoning that Greenie was killed because of Seerishness is still the fact that the Wolves did not kill Loslote, even though that would make the most sense!

So much for one-liners

EDIT: x-ed with 2/3 of Lommy and the rest

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by Agan

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The main point for the reasoning that Greenie was killed because of Seerishness is still the fact that the Wolves did not kill Loslote, even though that would make the most sense!

Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?

Now all you three can't be wolves so then you just think lazily. Heh, the way you treat this whole bussiness with me actrually underlines it pretty well.

Think, please. Check my last post as well. And think. Please.


(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?

Two words. Known. Innocent.

I have elaborated on this a bit more in the first post (or maybe second, well one of the early ones, anyway) of toDay, saying that okay, maybe this or that, maybe the matter isn't so pressing for them yet, but still... why not to get rid of the known innocent while they can? Eventually, it will become a problem for them, one person who is "clean", and by that time they might not have the option to choose anymore whether to kill her at Night or not - there might be many, many other more pressing problems and they would not be sure at which Night the Ranger is protecting her or not etc.

EDIT: x-ed since the quoted Nog

[Thinlómien]

Glirdan's interactions with people

Glirdan towards others

Day1
- banter with Mira and Shasta
- welcomes Winty and thinks him innocent although recognises Nerwen's point against him, banter defends himself against Lommy's "complaints" of banter, argues with Morsul about Day1s, apologises to Agan for lack of content and "flatters" her, loves Lommy for slightly dissing phrasing about him, gives a vote pass for out of game reasons to ww, Skip and Agan I think I'm becoming paranoid but this makes me slightly uneasy about Winty...
- never suspects Nog but is now worried about his vote, has no read on Mira, Lommy or Zil, approves of Agan's contributions and of Brinn's posting, suspects Shasta's vote yet sort of flip-flops, talks about Nerwen's protectiveness of ww, says Legate talks sense but doesn't like his vote, is bugged by Morsul because of a previous game, Nienna is too much under the radar
- not voting: Winty, Skip, Agan, Brinn & Morsul, probably not voting: Nerwen, Mira, Inzil, Nienna & Lommy, could vote: Nogrod, Legate & Shasta
- votes Shasta, admits throwawayishness

Day2
- likes Morsul's points
- asks Winty to explain himself
- thinks Legate has good points but is defensive, suspects him and ends up having him in his suspicion list sort of seriously, considers Agan defensive as well, doesn't want to defend himself against Lommy, agrees with Brinn, wants to hear more and is worried about Mira and Nerwen
- suspectes Winty based on Agan's point, suspects Mira based on bandwagon-suspicions against Greenie
- asks Nog for a clarification, rebukes Winty for not giving reasons for his vote

Day3
- wasn't around to say anything


Others towards Glirdan

Day1
- Lommy says he's too excited about IC posting but not necessarily guilty
- Legate notifies on his bantering
- Aganzir wants content from him... in the exact same words as from Sally! Curious incident...
- Lommy places him the middle of three categories, notes on there being little substance, banters
- Nog is annoyed and slightly suspicious of him because of his style
- Nienna has no read on him and puts him to the a bit less than a half of the village whom she could vote

Day2
- Morsul thinks him either suspicious or that "the wolves picked the person who pushed their cobbler friend over the edge"
- Lommy questions Lottie's wolf quartet suspicion which includes him
- Legate takes Lottie's aforementioned wolf quartet theory seriously
- Lommy disapproves of his reasons to try save Lottie
- Agan accepts his apology from Day1, comments on his points and says she likes him for now
- Lommy puts him to the most suspicious of five categories, doesn't like non-committal throwaway Day1 vote 'cos he suspected all the main lynch candidates
- Skip classifies him as a wishy-washy low-profile wolf candidate
- Zil says he'd like to have a closer look at him
- Agan has no opinion on him
- Lommy votes him
- Legate has no idea or suspicion on him
- Winty mentions him in shirriff speculation
- Legate says his sadness on Boro's death seemed more forced than Agan's, but doesn't like the point against them anyway
- Winty considers voting him
- Legate suspects he will be voted by many
- Nogrod says there have been some fair points raised against him
- Shasta doesn't have a read on him but smells bandwagonishness
- Shasta thinks some of Lottie's points against him "plain stink"
- Nog doesn't consider him as suspicious as Sally
- Winty answers his question
- Brinn thinks he has a fair point about Winty
- Skip votes him to open up an option for Sally lynch and says he's had vague suspicions about him all along
- Zil has a lots of points against Glirdy (won't recapitulate) and votes him

Day3
- Morsul thinks he's a wolf based on his theory of Sally planning a false reveal on Day2
- Zil thinks it's unlikely he and Sally were fellows given Sally's last-minute full frontal on him
- Zil admits Morsul's point but doesn't still think his wolvishness very likely
- Morsul votes him on gut-feeling, is confident Are Morsul's early votes to good to be innocent, asks I (like somebody already did before)?
- Nienna agrees with Morsul that Sally's post points at his guilt
- Zil starts to doubt his own earlier conclusion about G's innocence
- Brinn ponders the possibility of him being in cahoots with Sally, doesn't reach a conclusion
- Nerwen wonders about his conncetion with Sally, seems slightly more for than against
- Shasta agrees with Zil's previous Day suspicions of him but leaves analysing him to others
- Winty wants to analyse him and Sally's interactions
- Brinn uses him in a speculation over Nienna's role
- Lommy brings forth points against him and thinks he looks very bad but recommends looking at others too
- Lommy thinks he has funny wolvish giveaway bahaviour, uses him in a speculation over Nog's role and adds one more point against him
- Skip thinks his active pursuit of Sally makes him look innocent
- Nerwen disagrees with Skip's aforementioned point
- Skip wonders about him and Sally's Day1 banter
- Legate wishy-washes on his role and relations with various people (too long to recapitulate and I'm tired) in two posts
- Brinn wonders what to do with him, would like to hear his defense
- Nerwen analyses him and Sally's interactions, concludes he's suspicious but has also a few points for his innocence
- Nog analyses the wagon against him, doesn't present an opinion on the ovject of the wagon himself
- Zil explains his earlier thoughts about him
- Agan would like to have a look at him (and others) since she's unsure, likes Lommy's point against him
- Nog mentions him in a few analysis-posts but still no own opinion of him Ok I understand his opinion of Glirdy is not exactly related but this starts to look too non-committal...
- Brinn votes him, thinks his role could go either way but give us a lot of info, therefore the vote
- Shasta discusses him indirectly
- Skip wants to have a look at the emergence of suspicion against him
- Skip belittles his own earlier suspicion against G and thinks others don't have particularly good points against him, has no idea bout his role except he's not his prime suspect anyway
- Legate wishy-washes more about him, wonders if voting him would make sense, doesn't reach a conclusion Darling, you could start a laundry service.
- Skip says it's mathematically more probable he's innocent
- Legate points out the flaw in aforementioned point
- Shasta discusses him in relation to Greenie
- Skip thinks only one out of a list of five including G can be guilty
- Agan flip-flops on him, sort of concludes he's not suspicious
- Agan and Skip discuss him indirectly
- Nog again speculates about others' relations with him but doesn't pronounce an opinion of his own about him
- Zil discusses him indirectly
- more indirect discussion of Glirdy from Nog's part (he doesn't approve of Greenie's take on her)
- Skip has little liking for possible wagon against him
- Lommy is pretty sure she'll vote him, he's her top suspect, discusses him and Nerwen
- Lommy doesn't want to give Glirdy a chance to defend himself and votes him haha that sounds quite nasty! Also, is confident but flip-flops.
- Skip wants to know his role thanks to "all the hype"
- Shasta wishy-washes on the wagon against him, has no own opinion
- Lommy hopes that he or (another) wolf is lynched
- Nienna thinks him most suspicious of all but would like to hear his defense but would like to lynch him
- Zil's not enthused about lynching him although thinks knowing his role'd be useful
- Nog votes him, says he's been thinking it to and frobut is not too happy about the vote but thinks he's more likely a wolf than many others Interesting turn of events...
- Ni says he looks worse than Mira (the other absentee)
- Zil reminds people he's not around to defend himself but thinks it quite clear he will get lynched
- Zil votes him Again, very interesting turn of events, although self-defense played a part here, too...
- Nerwen wonders about Skip's constant defenses of him
- Ni votes him, hopes there'll be info
- Nerwen votes him


And that's it! Done! Like with sally, conclusions coming later. Basically means I check the things I (probably) xed with and then have a look at this post and the Sally one and make some conclusions.


edit: xed with all and gah, those are too long posts, I'll make my conclusions first and then read and comment those...

[Thinlómien]

(leaving myself out, of course)

Would be Sally's fellow
Nog - last minute suspicions against her
Brinn - same as Nog
Skip - nice relations, he sort of helps her out

Could be Sally's fellow
Legate - quite torn here, he looks sinister towards her but she doesn't towards him
Winty
Nerwen
Mira
Agan
Zil

Not Sally's fellow
Morsul - see her following Shasta's suspicion on Morsul
Shasta - same as Morsul
Nienna - late Day2 very unincriminating

Would be Glirdy's fellow
Agan - can't really put my finger on it, but there's something mighty fishy going on between them
Shasta - back and forths about him that way
Legate - same as Shasta
Nog - avoids having an opinion about him

Could be Glirdy's fellow
Skip - I'm puzzled about his really weird behaviour towards him
Zil - heavy suspicion on Day2 but slip-floppiness on Day3... weird?
Brinn - major back and forthing about Glirdy but she voted him without saying she suspects him. If she was a wolf, why wouldn't she try to look better by suspecting him?
Mira
Nerwen
Morsul
Nienna

Not Glirdy's fellow
Winty - I think he is questioning the poor noob too harshly for that


ERGO:

Probable fellows with 2 wolves
Nog

Probable fellows with 1 wolf
Brinn
Skip
Legate
Agan

Middle (probable + improbable or could be + could be)
Shasta
Mira
Nerwen
Zil

Improbable fellows with 1 wolf
Winty
Morsul
Nienna

Improbable fellows with 2 wolves
no one


Next your darling Lommy's up to:
1) replying all the old and new cross-posts
2) making a list


edit: xed with all again

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Agan

I've won a game as a wolf because the seer trusted the cobbler whom she had seen as innocent.

For the last time: I DIDN'T TRUST HIM! I only wasn't too concerned about him, which was obviously a mistake.

Originally Posted by Legate

So much for one-liners

<3

Originally Posted by Nogrod

According to your scenario she had dreamt of at least one wolf (me) - and if we contiune with that scenario probably also of another (Glirdan) because she put us both into the same category of "bad". If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it? I feel you're really trying to force your point now and it doesn't look too good.

Whos' trying to force a point here? It doesn't make any sense to try to discredit my point by saying that given that I'm the one who tried to analyse the way Greenie phrased her trust in people in one list post. I think her phrasing of you and Glirdy was different enough to make a difference, and besides, if she really suspected Glirdy (by logic or gut feeling) and you (because of a dream) why not put you both in the same categry? Or should she have put Glirdy under "suspicious" and you under "dreamt wolf"? Come on, she was the seer and she was trying to hide from you wolves...

Originally Posted by Nog

But I do recommend you fight over it and then when I'm dead you draw your conclusions based on what people thought of my lynching.

Sounds good.

Nog, how come wolves only look for the cursed? Is that inside information? (Ok, I see you answered that. It's a fair point, but since I didn't think of it, I'm - wise or not - not inclined to think an innocent would've come up with it... Not that this is a good point against Nog, just saying.)

Off to do a list, then vote. Want to be in bed in 45 minutes.


edit: xed with Zil

[Thinlómien]

Innocent
Lottie

Slightly innocent
Skip - I don't like his interactions with the wolves very much, but he seems like a rather likely seer dream.
Shasta - very contradictory evidence, but if I had to guess, I'd call him innocent. Will change opinion quite radically if we lynch Nogrod and he turns out to be innocent.
Nienna - something in her posts rubs me slightly the wrong way, but I'm currently thinking it's the same "something" that always makes me suspicious of her. Unlikely fellows with Sally, or then very evil and backstabbing.

Middle
Brinn - having real hard time with her.
Morsul - too right about stuff to really seem innocent, but then again, I have hard time imagining him and Sally in cahoots.
Legate - used to think him innocent but starting to be very lost with him now.
Agan - see above (only substitute "he" with "she" ).
Mira - needs to post more, seriously. Her posts look slightly more bad than good, but then again she looks a tiny bit like an innocent seer dream.
Winty - quite frankly, no idea. Suspicion of more or less only wolves is slightly disturbing, but might just be bandwagoning. Not probable fellows Glirdy, if I read the signs right. Tough call.

Slightly suspicious
Nerwen - in theory, she seems very innocent. In practice, she feels creepily wolvish. Keeping an eye on her... (She sort of too good to be true.)
Zil - I keep changing my opinion on him all the time. However, the evidence doesn't really flatter him. *sigh* All too aware of him being an "easy suspect".

Suspicious
Nogrod - fishy interactions with the known wolves, especially Glirdy. Also very probable seer dream.


++Nogrod

As you can see, even if I didn't suspect him so much, there wouldn't be much choice for me because I'm so unsure about everybody. ToMorrow (provided that I'm alive) I will focus on people I haven't paid enough attention before.


edit: xed with Nog and Skip
edit2: fixed bolding, decided to go to sleep. Bye!

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

It's kind of frustrating that you guys don't seem to get the point I'm trying to make time and again...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Come on, she was the seer and she was trying to hide from you wolves...

Okay. Going on with this scenario of yours that I was a wolf... You're contradicting yourself and good sense when you try to maintain that she was at the same time the most careful - not leaving any hints on whom she had dreamt of to ensure no one could think her the seer - and at the same time she would have revealed her wolf-dream as her top suspicion and plain ignoring the possibility the wolves might get her the next Night for it...

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't call her posting on me yesterDay "trying to hide from the wolves". But it would be "not helping the innocents at all" as she didn't then leave any known innocent and took the risk of losing last Night's dream by exposing herself to the wolves. So she exposed herself to the wolves but told nothing to the innocents?

That doesn't make sense Lommy. C'mon. Greenie is smarter than that.

I just get this funny feeling you and Agan are pushing this a bit too eagerly...

Okay, if you don't understand what I'm trying to say, well then don't. We can afford a mislynch as is said many times.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

EDIT: X'd with Lommy and Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. Going on with this scenario of yours that I was a wolf... You're contradicting yourself and good sense when you try to maintain that she was at the same time the most careful - not leaving any hints on whom she had dreamt of to ensure no one could think her the seer - and at the same time she would have revealed her wolf-dream as her top suspicion and plain ignoring the possibility the wolves might get her the next Night for it...

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't call her posting on me yesterDay "trying to hide from the wolves". But it would be "not helping the innocents at all" as she didn't then leave any known innocent and took the risk of losing last Night's dream by exposing herself to the wolves. So she exposed herself to the wolves but told nothing to the innocents?

This makes sense in a way, however, of course one must ask the fundamental question once again, why did the Wolves do what they did if it wasn't so. Back to my thoughts early in the Day, the options do not seem to be too many. In any case, if Nogrod is lynched and he turns out to be innocent, I will be turning back to the situation how it was before toDay, i.e. looking at those who were suspected back then. As if we rule out the possibility of the Wolves knowing Greenie was the Seer, I really cannot imagine other reasons for killing her than creating the confusion, framing Nogrod and leading us away from the trail.

Anyway, my main dilemma toDay is simply whether to join lynching Nogrod - and therefore getting part of the answers to the above - or to believe in the other of the possibilities and lynch one of the other suspects, in my case Inzil. However as I am not sure how much the other makes sense right now and considering that I have been slightly unsure about Inzil's guilt for a few reasons (see earlier toDay), it might as well be Nogrod. Even though I am wondering if his defense is not that of a genuine innocent.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright. I'm here for a few minutes, but I've... tarts to steal (read: final dress rehearsal tonight) so I won't be here at deadline.

Right now my vote will probably be for Nogrod. I've seen Nog come down hard on the "frustrated innocent" defense (and been on the receiving end of such ) to buy it from him this time. Plus, he hasn't (at least I haven't seen it... if you have, correct me, Nog) responded at all to the point I made earlier in the day against him, about his vote for Glirdan that contradicted his previous stance on "easy lynches".

Now, Legate -

Originally Posted by Legate

Morsul this far does not seem suspicious to me. He has been acting more or less like his innocent self, and the possible slip of all things is not very convincing to me either (I mean, I can see Morsul making a mistake like that without it being a slip).

It is interesting nevertheless, you sort of made me now imagine the interesting idea of Morsul fooling us (or me) all the time, because he really seemed "normal" to me.

I don't like this post much. Especially since I'm suspicious of Morsul (and agree totally with Skip, here)

Originally Posted by Skip

Maybe he figures that by being his incoherent self and voting early, sometimes for his fellow wolves, he might just soldier on as a minor but harmless disturbance?

I could see Morsul doing just that on the basis of "it's worked before" (which he's already admitted to basing his actions on anyway ), and your post looks like you're dismissing suspicion of Morsul off-hand.

My only problem is that Nog is a likely wolf, so you can't be wolves together.

[skip spence]

Nogrod is starting to worry me too but I've not really kept up to date with the reading and just why he's suspected. Because Greenie the Seer's vote for him, is it not? It would be remarkable if we (though I can't claim any credit) could lynch a wolf three consecutive nights. Don't know if Nogrod is one but things are beginning to bad for him methinks. How do you behead a big grin anyway? Let's ask the The Queen Of Hearts shall we?

But I will not be the one to try to fit the noose around his neck or lack of. The most honest option for me is Shasta, who I've sort of suspected since early on. I could go for Morsul too but don't see that happening now.

++Shasta

*is off to sleep*