WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Do you have a specific reason to think so?

Well, so far I haven't been able to work out who it could be.

Originally Posted by Agan

Paper-thin or not, there were some questions I'd like to see answers to.

Sure. Fire away.

Originally Posted by Agan

It's possible but better not to count on it. And if the cursed was turned, it would be in the fourth wolf's interests to give us a false sense of safety. Which means your comment made you rise again on my suspicion list.

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You're not going to tell us which, dear Moddess?

EDIT:X'd with Lottie.

Originally Posted by skip spence

That is somewhat ambiguous, isn't it? The role will be revealed "when they die".

If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us.

Hypothetically if the Cursed was turned I would not tell you. If the Cursed dies before being turned I would say "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned I would say "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name. Either way you find out only if they die, not when they originally get turned.

So yes it was either a Ranger save or the Cursed was turned or the Wolf forgot to give a kill. No I'm not telling you which. Yes I am enjoying this.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Hypothetically if the Cursed was turned I would not tell you. If the Cursed dies before being turned I would say "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned I would say "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name. Either way you find out only if they die, not when they originally get turned.

So yes it was either a Ranger save or the Cursed was turned or the Wolf forgot to give a kill. No I'm not telling you which. Yes I am enjoying this.

^ This.

[skip spence]

Voting Day 4

1) Morsul on Morsul
2) Nerwen on skip spence
3) Morsul on skip spence (2) (retracts earlier vote)
4) Shasta on Morsul
5) Agan on Nerwen
6) skip spence on Morsul (2)
7) Mira on Morsul (3)
8) Lommy on Nerwen (2)
9) Legate on Nerwen (3)
10) WinWin on Morsul (4)
11) Lottie on Morsul (5)
12) Nerwen on Morsul (6) (retracts earlier vote)

Final vote tally:
Morsul 6
Nerwen 3
Skip 1

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Interesting to note is that Nerwen uses her retraction "to save herself" although this in fact was not as vital as I first thought. When Nerwen re-voted Morsul was on 5 votes while Nerwen was on 3 with only Brinn left to vote, so even without the retraction she'd likely have survived.

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?

N.B. My vote-post X'd with Lottie's, anyway.

[Aganzir]

I'm continuing my Nog's interactions analyse but because I have to leave in half an hour I'm not sure I have time to finish it (if not will complete it in the evening).

Btw wilwa, does the ranger know if she managed to save somebody or not? When you think of it, it'd make sense if she did (after all she drove the wolf away... unless even the sight of her was enough to drive the wolf away).

As for the questions Nerwen, I'd like to direct you here.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

What does it have to do with anything?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Do you really not see the contradiction between these two paragraphs, Skip?

There's no direct contradiction. I said you'd likely survive even without the retraction.

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

However, if you are a wolf, the consequences of getting lynched then would have been the greatest imaginable: the game would be instantly lost. There would be no comfort-zone to take chances.

[Aganzir]

winty. Nog didn't speak much of him but was sort of protective towards him; he attacked Zil for criticising winty's vote and said that winty looked suspicious but was most likely just a newbie. On day 3 Nog thought winty's vote was good as it put Glirdan even more clearly in the lead. Winty himself didn't say anything about Nog but voted for him on day 4.

Mira. Nog keeps a distance to her and doesn't say anything definite about her, which looks somewhat suspicious (but then, she wasn't the only one). On day 1 he thought she could be a sneaky wolf but voting her a shot in the dark, on day 2 she didn't feel honest and voted too easy (winty), and the fact that she introduced a new candidate might mean she tried to save Glirdan. When she got votes on day 3 he said he didn't know about her but we could lynch her if we liked. This could really go either way: "Sure go ahead lynch an innocent!" or "If you lynch her let no one say I tried to save her!"
I might have missed a post but I can't see Mira would've said anything worth mentioning about Nog.

Agan. I'm obviously not going to analyse myself but if someone wants to do it, my summary of Nog's interactions is here.

Shasta. Nog seemed to always be slightly suspicious of Shasta and sort of suspected him for suspecting Morsul. He said that if Glirdan's a wolf, Shasta (and Mira) looks quite bad... and because this happened after Green had begun to suspect Nog, I wonder if he'd intentionally bring attention on his fellows as, even though he hadn't been suspected so far, the tide was obviously turning.
As for Shasta, he started paying more attention to Nog on day 3, saying that calling winty an easy lynch was just an excuse for him to suspect anyone who suspected winty. On day 4 he thought Nog was a hypocrite when it came to easy lynches.
There was Nog's attack on Shasta on day 4, but I'm not sure he would've done that if Shasta was his fellow... It's possible Shasta was just the one he thought he could lynch the most easily. But I'd rather not pay too much attention to what he said or did on day 4 because he probably knew he was going to die and no one knows if he was bluffing or double-bluffing.

Nerwen. Nog kept a distance to her as well; on day 1 he said she speaks sense and is dangerous unless one has a reason to suspect her, and on day 3 she looked good for having added a vote for a wolf on day 2.
Nerwen talked about Nog a bit more than he about her but didn't reach any more conclusions before day 4. She said his row with Inzil didn't look good but might have been a language problem. On day 4 she went through his posts, starting with "could go either way" but becoming gradually more suspicious (the general opinion against Nog became more accusing too). She voted for him late and said that if somebody else jumped out as more suspicious she might switch (ie if there was a last-minute bandwagon against somebody else?).
It might be good if somebody else went through Nerwen too because I'm personally more or less confident she's a wolf which means I might see things through slightly wolf-coloured glasses even if I try not to.

Legate. See Nerwen. Nog talked about those two in almost identical words.
Legate on the other hand talks about Nog without a qualm and doesn't look like he was trying to maintain a distance. On the first days he mostly just agreed with Nog but didn't have an opinion of him. On day 4 he brought forward (twice) the possibility that the wolves had tried to frame Nog by killing Green but in the end he voted for him.
Wavering like that doesn't look very good for Legate but if they were fellows, I don't think he'd be so clumsy...

skip. On the first two days Nog thought skip made sense and felt good. On day 3 however he pointed out that skip was defending Glirdan. It could be opportunistic Wolfgrod trying to make the best of a fellow's death or, if they were fellows, he might have wanted to be the first to point it out so he could maintain control of the situation, if you get what I mean. And he sort of mitigated it in the end, anyway. For the actual post, see here.
On day 3 skip didn't like it how Green suspected Nog, although only after Inzil had started to talk about it. On day 4 he didn't really talk about Nog, began to get worried about him quite late and ended up voting for Shasta. It doesn't really look very flattering to him... but then again I do wonder if skipwolf had been so obvious.

Lommy. Glirdan's being a wolf would make Lommy look more innocent, said Nog on day 3, but that's pretty much all.
Lommy herself named Nog as one of her suspects as early as on day 2 and was, I think, the first to do it. On day 4 she contributed heavily to his lynching. While I think Wolflómien could've done it too, it seems more likely Lommy isn't his fellow.

Brinniel. On day 1 Nog said she's reasonable and scary, on day 2 that there were points against her (and Glirdan) to a lesser degree. He also said that there are fair points against sally, and even though we're talking about Nog here, I kind of doubt he would've suspected all of his fellows so early. He thought Brinn's day 3 vote was good but pointed out she didn't mention Glirdan at all.
On day 2 Brinn found Nog reasonable, and on day 4 she said it was possible he was a wolf although the wolves could also have tried to frame him. She voted for him, saying she'd be surprised if he was innocent.

Likely fellows
Nerwen. Even if I hadn't been suspicious of her before, I think she'd make it here.

Possible fellows
winty
Mira
Legate
skip

Unlikely fellows
Shasta. I suppose it's possible he was a wolf with Nog, but I think it's rather unlikely.
Lommy
Brinn. I debated whether I should put her here or in Possible fellows and decided it'd be a tad too risky even for Nog to name all of his fellows as suspicious on day 2.

Alright I must go now... will be back later.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What does it have to do with anything?

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.

Originally Posted by Skip

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

Excuse me. Each innocent lost is a blow to the village and a plus to the evil side. Therefore it's an innocent's duty to save him or herself over an unknown. And why should I have thought no-one else would vote for me? Brinn had given every indication she would.

Aganzir, as for your "case" on me here:

1. The fact that I commented on wintywinty's random vote on Day One. At that time this– and Fea's similar vote– were the only noteworthy things that had happened. So I commented on them. That's all. You jumped on this and went on and on about it, quite obsessively. There is no case for me to answer here.

2. I suspected Glirdan, for perfectly good reasons. Note that Morsul– known innocent– also suspected him from the start of Day 2. Since I only suspected him, rather than knowing his role, I also tried to be fair by bringing up points in his favour as well as those against him. It's not my way to simply decide someone's guilty before I've even examined the evidence.

3.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think that comment is awfully fishy. Framing whom? If the wolves guessed her identity, it was most likely because Nog was her top suspect. It looks like you were suggesting the wolves wanted to frame innocent Nog.

Yes. That was before I'd analysed him and seemed a possibility at that point.

4. Nogrod. Again, I didn't know his role, therefore I looked at both sides of the case before deciding to vote him.

5. Brinn's comment was out of context, in that she makes no mention of the fact that a.) this was early in the Day, b.) the rest of the post contained an (implied) case for Sally's intending to play Seer (thus implicating Glirdan) c.) I later analysed Glirdan's interactions with Sally and concluded he was more likely guilty than not. Let me ask you, Agan: how is it not out of context?

6. I said I found my analysis of Brinn inconclusive, because it was. No ulterior motive.

7. I voted Skip because I needed to vote in a hurry, and he seemed the most suspicious person. Yes, Greenie said he looked innocent, but she said that about a lot of people– we can't know for sure. Again, no ulterior motive. The end.

Happy now?

EDIT:typo.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Isn't it obvious? Mira's saying the lack of information probably means a Ranger save, but she's recently played in a game where the same thing meant the Cursed had been found. So it seems an odd assumption to make.

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens. So sorry, dear, that's a very shaky assumption you've made.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens.

Fair enough. I usually do, that's all.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I am here. So basically, we don't know what exactly has happened toNight and wilwa is actually not going to tell us at all. Well originally I sort of assumed that if a Ranger-save or a Cursed-turning happened, then we would be told in the narration, but since the Moddess stated otherwise, it can be anything. Whatever, I guess like somebody said we do not have much chance of unveiling it. If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save. That said, I have been thinking whether actually some Gifteds coming out at some point wouldn't make sense, or at least later it could prove good (having lots of known innocents around, especially if Lottie is still around, and narrowing the choices a lot for us), but then on the other hand again, it would probably also narrow the choice for the Wolf to get the Cursed villager (if it has not been turned yet) and also, it would likely mean that the Unicorn would not ever be killed at all, which would basically reduce him/her to a known innocent (and his/her main importance right now is probably in that if a Wolf is stumbling at Night and killing people, that he/she accidentally kills an Unicorn and revives somebody, thus effectively negating the kill and creating a known innocent, and esp. if it returned some Greenie or something, it would be quite good).

But anyway, back to general thoughts... first in any case, I believe it wasn't clever for certain to turn around the lynch like it was yesterDay (well in general, even though I had no particularly deep suspicion for Nerwen, after I have decided to vote her, it was sort of disappointing to see "just" Morsul die, also because I was sort of "reading" him a lot better than Nerwen, who is basically enigmatic person otherwise). Sort of disappointing in that regard.

I will take a look at the yesterDay's votes now, to sort of review how it went and if there is a chance to get something out of it.

Otherwise, whatever has happened at Night, I guess since the Moddess is not giving us any hints, I think we should just continue as we go now - and if we lynch the last Wolf and the game does not end (or if later at Night something happens and we actually will be informed that the Cursed has been turned), the game will continue and then we can focus on the task there (and in such a case probably have some guidelines for finding any Wolf-interactions then). For that matter, if the Cursing did happen toNight, I would be most worried about Lommy then, as she was generally considered innocent, I believe, so I guess she would be a likely target for the Wolf. Also if this Night was missing the kill, I'd consider it more likely that the Wolf is Mira, or possibly WW (both of them sort of not being around that much - then again, however, if I were to choose, WW has quite a "clean" voting list, as I noted before). But whatever, leaving this for now.

Anyway, I am going to just review yesterDay's voting, like I said, and then hopefully post some thoughts on people in general. I guess I will focus mainly on my suspects from before, as I still think the Wolves are most likely to be among those with "uncertain voting patterns", but let's see...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Legate

If it was a Cursed-turning, we'd learn sooner or later, otherwise, of course the Ranger would know at least if it was a save.

Why? If the Ranger saved Person A, and the wolf attacked Person B (the cursed), the Ranger wouldn't have any idea, would they? This seems like an odd assumption to make.

In other news, I dislike the way winty just keeps popping in at the last second to vote. It's really starting to look like overwhelmed-newbie-wolf to me, but I still have several people to look at.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so in general not very sure much could be gathered from yesterDay's votes, but I sort of did not expect much, now that we can't count on any Wolf saving a Wolf there (or voting on Wolf, for that matter). Some people voted in self-preservation, which makes sense in any case, and otherwise the bandwaggons were not that big and were rather equal in size, so it's hard to judge. I guess the main evidence for us especially now still lays in people's interactions before.

I still trust Lommy, and Aganzir (well, like I said earlier). I am still not sure about Shasta, although his yesterDay's vote does not make him look any worse to me, it does not also make it better as it basically does not say anything, and there are still his earlier relations or attitudes towards the Wolves (or their behavior towards him) which could just as well be careful unpackmating.

I am of course, after yesterDay, sort of disappointed of not lynching Nerwen, maybe now I could actually re-read her also more deeply (although in general she also makes lots of lists and that's just rather long/annoying/not informative to read). If I were to say now where we could find the remaining Wolf, I would really go for either of Shasta, Mira and Nerwen (although I'd rather re-check her first, like I said). It is sort of funny how I said that Mira originally voiced only her suspicion of Morsul (sort of "in concert" with others) and later when the bandwaggon starts rolling she will jump on it, which she exactly did in the end. It is true that she had voiced suspicion for him before that, although it was several days ago, but of course we cannot say if it might not have been just something that she found now good to use. But anyway, generally she really hasn't been around very much - so especially that way we cannot have much of information about her possible interaction with the other Wolves. Otherwise, if I were to continue elsewhere, I could think about Skip too (the old question of him being either a rather good newbie Wolf or an "individualistic innocent"); his vote yesterDay might having been joining a bandwaggon "for a good reason" (something similar could be said about Shasta's vote also), but still I am sort of thinking that Greenie might have dreamed of him. If it were not for that, I would be suspecting him probably quite a bit by now, but right now he is not seeming that likely to me. Then also WW is a possibility, but he's again rather on the far side of the line.

EDIT: okay, seems something is happening at last. X-ed since my last post.