WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way, I'm not happy about the suspicion against me yesterDay. In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin– though it's true that it was going to be hard to make a really strong case against anyone at that point.

You may see it that way, but I don't. Your actions on Day 3 and especially Day 4 look clearly suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.

I didn't know Morsul was innocent, but I was pretty certain about it because it just wasn't logical that he would be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.

Exactly. The odds are so low, it doesn't make sense to lynch the unicorn just for the possibility that Greenie could come back. And while any other innocent would be nice, they won't necessarily provide us with that much more help and could end up being very misguided about who the last wolf is.

Originally Posted by skip

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

Yeah, which was clearly unlikely. winty seemed pretty much gone by then. Nerwen used her retraction to save herself, and would obviously never vote for herself anyway. Lottie was the only one to convince, and I tried to persuade her to vote Nerwen and failed. By then, it was too late to persuade her to change it, and I'm quite certain she wouldn't have used her only retraction anyway when she seemed quite happy with her vote on Morsul. Even though my vote would've made no difference, I probably should've made one anyway simply for vote record reasons, but I was so irritated at the time, I couldn't be bothered with it.

Originally Posted by skip

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.


Okay, since we don't know what happened last Night, we should keep the possibility of a cursed turning in the back of our minds, but not yet attempt to go about looking for one just yet. The smartest thing we can do is find the last wolf and if we do and the game's still going, then obviously the cursed has been turned. I think killing the final wolf is really the only way to know what happened for sure.

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why? If the Ranger saved Person A, and the wolf attacked Person B (the cursed), the Ranger wouldn't have any idea, would they? This seems like an odd assumption to make.

Well, that depends on the game's mechanics. I wouldn't have thought of that, but then, I am generally used to the fact that saves and whatnot are announced in the narrations. If I was doing it, I would probably send a PM to the Ranger in reply, saying "you saved XY" if it was the case, although now given our Moddesses behavior, it seems somewhat less likely for her to act like that. But anyway, well... who knows, I say let's leave the issue for now and concentrate on the present.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

As for this, I have been also wondering if we'd learn that, like, it would be nice to have a: "XXX - lynched on Day X - cursed" or something as announcement there. I guess that would make sense - but anyway... let's see.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

[wilwarin538]

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

Like I already said, yes. If the Cursed dies before being turned you would see "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned you would see "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name.

[skip spence]

I might as well post this, a look I had this morning on Shasta's first 3 days:

Day 1

First three posts are IC banter

Post 53 is a list of sorts. Lottie is his only serious suspicion because she’s “posting a lot of fluff and not a lot of content, which doesn't remind me of an innocent incarnation of said Duchess.”

In Post 112 at which point Lottie has amassed a few votes and looks like getting lynched , he then changes his tone and now dislikes the votes on Lottie, “Partiiiiiially because it seems like we lynch her first a lot, and partiiiially because the reasoning on the bandwagon isn't superb”.

To this the Sally the wolf agrees. Shasta now finds Morsul the most suspect because he wants others to get rid of their retractions but at the same time keep but it turned out that Shasta just misread Morsul’s post.

Shasta eventually votes Greenie without an explanation (unless I missed it)

Day 2:

#340 is a long post of thoughts. Among other things he critiques Lottie for acting so sure of herself. Points out that Mira’s statement that she’s: “floundering for something to contribute” is suspect.

He also suspects Nerwen because of this statement of hers while she was giving Sally what actually was her second vote: “Now, I think that's the third vote on Sallymouse, which I guess makes it officially a bandwagon.”

He defends Sally from Legate’s accusations though:
Legate: “But this sounds a rather too over-the-top defensive thing and somehow, the defense sounds just fabricated. That didn't help you at least in my eyes, sally. But whatever...”

Shasta :"I disagree. I've been a frustrated innocent before (right, guys? *waves crossbow*) and honestly, Sally had just come back to two votes and a bucketload of suspicion. I'd probably be frustrated too".

Later on he states he’d likely vote Zil or Morsul, bickers a bit with Greenie then finally votes Morsul for “being opportunistic”.


Day 3:
First a short post where he agrees with others that Glirdan is suspicious and promises to look at Greenie because Glirdan will be scrutinized by others.
Then a few rather pointless short posts.

#494 is longer. Here Shasta critiques Morsul for his early votes( “it feels like he's established ‘vote early and be suspicious at all time’ as his own playstyle, but at the same time right now it feels like he's hiding behind it a bit”) and Brinn for being wishy-washy.
More bickering with Greenie, still with little weight behind the accusations. Shasta also questions why Nogrod calls winty an easy lynch: “Right, I'm going to take issue with people continuing to call winty an ‘easy lynch’”

#507 Qualifies his accusations against Greenie(who’s just voted Nogrod, rather surprisingly) :
"I do see it as a bit of a throwaway, honestly. I don't think anyone else so far has mentioned Nog (which worries me a bit, now that I think about it, considering that he's usually at the forefront of the discussion...) but your last comment looked like you're setting yourself up to look good if Glirdan is lynched and flips as a wolf."

I state my possible intention on voting Shasta:
“As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very cleanly, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky.”

Shasta responds: “It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying.”

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.


Don't know just what to make of this expect that I still find him rather suspicious.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What happened in the night if the cursed was turned:
wolf: *stalks towards cursed* "Heya mate I'm here to kill you rawr!"
cursed: "Yikes!"
wolf: *bites*
cursed: *sprouts fur* "Omigod I didn't die!"
wolf: "Let's go kick some village butt yay!"

Epic. Win.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

But she was a dead wolf at the time...and probably more concerned with the fact that the wolves were dying off at an alarming rate, if she was even watching.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What does it have to do with anything?

Well, it was a fun game, and actually quite similar with the string of wolf-lynches. (four in a row, following a hunter wolf-kill. )

Originally Posted by skip spence

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

Originally Posted by skip spence

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.

A wolf probably wouldn't be that bold.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Loslote

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

Ok fair enough. With the x-posting my argument sort of falls apart I guess.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Mira:

#9 is IC posting.

#12 is fluff.

#48 - thinks Fea's vote isn't suspicious, but winty's is.

Originally Posted by Mira

wintywinty's vote is more suspicious. I do agree with whoever suggested it might be of a wolfish nature and xe was told to act newbieish to allay suspicion. Or it could be a newbie mistake. People do tend to follow Fea for no reason.

#287 is our dear Stick's first real contribution (<3).

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Oooh not a ton for me to catch up on even though the Day's more than half over. *approves*



Yes dear, would you care to explain that one for me please?

I also really disliked Zil's vote for me. If he could explain that too, I'd appreciate it.



Dead on.

So enough about me.

I tend to trust Lottie's shirriff reveal, since I see no reason not to. Her suspicion of Greenie makes me suspicious of her by default, but I'll have to go through and look a bit deeper at her posts.

So based on that information, I'll probably vote for Agan, Zil, or Greenie unless they manage to clear themselves in my eyes.

I'm also on the fence about Morsul and sally. Morsul's "vote of opportunity" seems mighty suspicious.

Said analysis of Greenie's posts might take a while since it's finals week and I reeeeally need to not get another D in seminar. Just sayin'.

Okay, what I'm getting out of this is that Mira suspects Agan and Zil because Agan suspected her and Zil voted for her, and Greenie because known innocent Lottie was suspicious of her. Was also suspicious of Morsul, which seems to be the only suspicion that had a reason.

#292 - TLDR; was only suspicious of Greenie because of Lottie, but isn't suspicious of her anymore.

#294 - Kind of jokingly defensive?

Originally Posted by Mira in response to Lommy

And how many of the times you've suspected me have I actually been evil?

#302 - Here's that "floundering" comment I thought was suspicious. Also mentions her suspicion of Aganzir.

Originally Posted by Mirandir

That was really me floundering for something to contribute than anything else. And no, I got the Morsul thing, and so far you suspicion is really the only reason I'm considering voting for you. I could look for more basis if you'd like.

#365 -

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Yes, dear. What about that is interesting to you? It was Day 1. That was the first post I had made that wasn't straight up banter and didn't particularly want to be accused of being evil for not participating.

In an attempt to not miss deadline for the second day in a row (which is unfortunately extremely likely considering how much studying I still have to do. Procrastination = bad), ima go ahead and vote now.

++wintywinty

There's something suspicious about the way he's been posting. It could be because he's a newbie, but I'm going to go with the idea that there's wolfish coaching going on. Might change that if The Mythology of Crime and Criminal Justice doesn't suck my life completely away before DL.

Wait, what? So you consider your suspicion of Agan "just banter"? And much as I'm glad to see someone not dismissing winty as "newbie", I don't think anyone else was very suspicious of him at this point, so this kind of seems like a throwaway.

#603 - Mentions her participation won't be great. However, mentions she thinks Morsul looks suspicious for talking so much for the first time all game (this after I said the same thing in #573 ).

#605 - Mentions she's a girl.

#677 - Thinks Morsul's self-vote is "the stupidest thing ever" and finds it suspicious.

#713 - More on Morsul's self-vote.

Originally Posted by Mira

So this pretty much boils down to I have no idea what to think. I'm leaning toward innocent and pigheaded, but tempted to vote him for sheer stupidity at the risk of being hypocritical.

#751 - Defends herself against Legate:

Originally Posted by Mira

I did voice suspicion against him before that, though. Like, two days ago. I'm just actually doing something about it now.

++Morsul

For reasons previously stated and since he's the only one who's really jumped out at me. This might change if I get the chance to go over some things more closely, but wanted to make sure I didn't miss deadline again.

This bothers me a little bit. Yes, she did, but only once, in passing (see #287). So for her to bring that up as a reason for jumping on Morsul two days later, even if she's been busy with RL... seems kind of forced.

#798 -

Originally Posted by Mira

Of the three options, my money is on ranger save. I feel like the narration would say something more interesting than nothing if the cursed had been turned. It's also unlikely the last wolf forgot to send in a kill. At this point it's too important to not remember to do. Thus, ranger save.

This was the quote that prompted this analysis in the first place. It seems awfully quick to dismiss the fact of a Cursed change altogether, and that really bothers me.

#815 -

Originally Posted by Mira

No, I said it might mean a Ranger save and that's what I was personally leaning toward. Also, when I die that early on in games I tend not to follow what happens. So sorry, dear, that's a very shaky assumption you've made.

No you didn't, Mira. You said... well, just look up.



Conclusion - I'd really like to see more from Mira, given her RL circumstances, but what she has said looks furry to me.

[wilwarin538]

Note: could everyone please un-highlight votes when you quote them, it confuses me. Thanks. <3

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Okay, what I'm getting out of this is that Mira suspects Agan and Zil because Agan suspected her and Zil voted for her, and Greenie because known innocent Lottie was suspicious of her. Was also suspicious of Morsul, which seems to be the only suspicion that had a reason.

Correct. Agan and Zil were revenge picks. I always get testy when suspected, as anyone who's played with me in the past knows. Generally don't act on said testiness though, hence not voting for either of them.

#294 - Kind of jokingly defensive?

More amused than anything else. In all the games I've played I've been a wolf twice and one of those times I had to drop out because of computer issues. The other time Nienna hunted me the Night we killed her.

#302 - Here's that "floundering" comment I thought was suspicious. Also mentions her suspicion of Aganzir.

I'm suspicious when I don't explain things and I'm suspicious when I do. Can't win with you, can I?

#365 - Wait, what? So you consider your suspicion of Agan "just banter"? And much as I'm glad to see someone not dismissing winty as "newbie", I don't think anyone else was very suspicious of him at this point, so this kind of seems like a throwaway.

Noo no you misunderstand. That was in response to my Day 1 winty vote. Prior to that vote post all I had done was banter. My suspicion of Agan came later on. Also, still can't win with you. Get accused of bandwaggoning if other people suspect someone before I mention them, but if suspicious of someone other people aren't it's a throwaway. Do you see a logic flaw here?

#603 - Mentions her participation won't be great. However, mentions she thinks Morsul looks suspicious for talking so much for the first time all game (this after I said the same thing in #573 ).

Definitely did not see you said that. My bad.

#751 - Defends herself against Legate:
This bothers me a little bit. Yes, she did, but only once, in passing (see #287). So for her to bring that up as a reason for jumping on Morsul two days later, even if she's been busy with RL... seems kind of forced.

But less forced than picking someone arbitrarily to vote for that I had no reasoning against, no?

[quote]#798 - This was the quote that prompted this analysis in the first place. It seems awfully quick to dismiss the fact of a Cursed change altogether, and that really bothers me.[quote]

I didn't dismiss it (intentionally, at least though I can see where you would get that impression), I just think a Ranger save is more likely. The entire game has gone by without the Ranger successfully saving someone; it was bound to happen eventually. However, the likelihood of the cursed being turned is just as likely.

Did I miss anything?