Arda Cup Football 2010

[Boromir88]

The playoffs are now here, is there anything better? Round 3 was rather a tale of two stories for me. The first story, for groups A-D I was dead on about 13 of the 16 team goals! Then comes groups E-H, which was an utter mess, especially due to Thangorodrim and Havens being eliminated. What can ya do?

What TTN is bringing to their loyal followers this week...power rankings for the 16 playoff teams, as well as a preview and predictions for all the matches. We also have a new "Giants" and "slayers" feature. Lot to do, let's get to it!

Giants (G)- It was rather easy picking the giants out. To qualify you had to be a group winner, but simply being a group winner does not make you a Giant. TTN thinks there are 6 Giants (the 5 teams who picked up the full 9 points in their respective groups, plus the best ranked 7 point team). You might argue this is too many, as afterall only 4 teams make it to the semis, so how are there 6 Giants? There are legitimately 6 teams which impressed us so much, we would not be shocked if any combination of 4 got to the semis.

Slayers (s) - These were a little harder to identify. The basic qualification was you had to be a 2nd place finisher. However, just like with the giants, we would not identify all teams who finished 2nd as a potential slayer. We gathered all possible statistics to figure out which of the "little guys" had good potential to knock down a Goliath. We found 5.

Now for the power rankings, which is simply a way to look at how the 16 playoff teams stack up against eachother. But before the actual rankings, here are the details to the method.

Teams were rated on a scale of 1-5 in these 3 categories:
1. Offense: a combination of goals, total shots, shots on target, and scoring percentage.
2. Defense: total shots a defense allowed, and shots on target allowed
3. Goal keeping: Keepers save percentage.

Goal keeping was a late factor added, because when looking at all the statistics, we noticed some teams had great defenses that allowed a low amount of shots, but had an average GK, and other defenses gave up a lot of shots but had GK who were saving everything! The fact is, great (or poor) goal keepers can have a major impact on the outcome of games, so we thought it needed to be a separate category from defense.

Having made this decision, when crunching all the numbers, they favored the defensive teams. I believed this formula:

Offense + Defense + Goal keeping = overall

Skewed the results too much and created an unfair bias. So instead I went with this formula:

Offense + ((Defense + Goal keeping) / 2) = overall

Thus the Power Rankings still favor teams oriented on good defense, but not nearly as skewed as the first formula. And honestly, I am fine with this bias towards good defense, you know the saying...Great defense wins championships.

POWER RANKINGS

16. Gelion
-OFF: 1.5 / FW- Beren (8)
-DEF: 3 / *DF- Luthien (9)
-GK: 3 / Dior- 76.9%
-OVR: 4.5
Gelion's feel good story about making the playoffs will quickly come crashing to an end. They didn't get here by luck, it was good team defense and work ethic, but you can see from the stats just look quite average compared to the 15 remaining teams. Utumno should get an easy victory, but even if Gelion was playing someone else they'd still be heavy underdogs.

15. Norbury (s)
-OFF: 2.5 / FW- Araphor, *MF- Malbeth (8)
-DEF: 2 / DF- Amlaith (6)
-GK: 3 / Arvedui- 77.9%
-OVR: 5
The biggest argument I found for Norbury being a slayer is their match against Mithrim. They did lose that match 2-1, but if you have to like their consistancy. They ranged from 8 to 11 scoring opportunities in their 3 matches, and got a goal in each. This includes a goal against Mithrim who is without question a Top 3 defense (Valimar is good but not one of the other 2). They will get their 8-11 chances again. And do you really think Valimar will go on a 4-goal rampage against Norbury? I don't, not only because Valimar won't be inspired to destroy them like Thangorodrim, but Norbury is simply a better defense. This is why they're in and Thangorodrim's not.

14. Gondor (s)
-OFF: 2 / FW- Eldacar (11)
-DEF: 2.5 / DF- Folcred, Fastred (8)
-GK: 4 / Romendacil- 87.8%
-OVR: 5.25
When you have a GK performing like Romendacil and a team that every game, no matter the foe, matches their opponents numbers, there is no question you're a slayer. The biggest weakness is the defense does allow quite a few too many shots, and so if Romendacil doesn't keep up his stellar save % any game could turn into a route. However, as stated previously for as many shots as their defense allows, their offense matches in production. This means they keep games close and can easily win. They face the Barrow-Downs in Round 1, who has not been identified as a Giant, but all I mean is IF Gondor were to face one of the Giants they would have a good chance at getting the upset.

13. Numenor (s)
-OFF: 1.5 / FW- Ar Adunakhor (7)
-DEF: 4 / **DF- Tar Telperien (11)
-GK: 3.5 / *Tar Atanamir- 81.8%
-OVR: 5.25
Of all the slayers Numenor probably has the best potential. Tar Telperien's got that defense working just as effective as last year, there is a slight drop in Tar Atanamir's saves, but he's a playoff experienced championship GK, end of story. They were only able to get 3 goals in 3 games, and have a terrible scoring percentage of 7.7%. But not so hasty I say! They still put together and impressive 39 shots, and look at the other GK's in their group. Ungoliant (who has been THE best up to this point) and Elrond who just ridiculously saved everything. It's a great sign they are still getting a high amount of shots, so perhaps facing a different GK is just what the doctor ordered. Now, Maglor for Eithel Sirion saved 9/10, but can he keep that up against the mighty Numenoreans?

12. Aman
-OFF: 2 / FW- Ar Pharazon (11)
-DEF: 3.5 / *DF- Turgon (8)
-GK: 4 / Nienna- 83.3%
-OVR: 5.75
Aman's got a good defense, but to be honest it's not great and to stop Tirion you have to be great. I, unlike AKMs major lovefest with Tirion, think their offense can be stopped, but it won't be by Aman. Here's what I mean by good but not great. Vinyamar played in the same group, their defense allowed 19 shots (8 on target), how did Aman's compare? 27(12), That's a significant difference and they played the same teams. Aman also doesn't have the fire power to get into a scoring match with Tirion, slayers Aman are not.

11. Dol Guldur
-OFF: 4.5 / *FW- Witch King (18)
-DEF: 1 / DF- Thrain (0)
-GK: 1.5 / Oropher- 66.7%
-OVR: 5.75
Not slayers either and opposite of the reasons Aman are not. Dol Guldur's defense is just too bad, and I'm not understanding AKM's boy crush on these types of teams. Attercop and Tomnoddy picked up 2 yellows each, they can't stop anyone from shooting. When they actually do a half-way decent job Oropher only saves 2/3rds! If you notice too, in their matches, they usually wind up behind and the Witch-King has to come storming back. Vinyamar managed a respectable 5 goals in a very tough defensive group. If they get down a few goals again, do you really think the Witch-King can storm back against one of the Top 3 defensive teams? Answer is no.

10. Bywater (s)
-OFF: 2.5 / **MF- Gandalf, Maggot (9)
-DEF: 3 / **DF- Shadowfax (6)
-GK: 3.5 / Cotton- 80.0%
-OVR: 5.75
Bywater is one of the slayers, just too bad their playoff match is against the best team of the first 3 rounds. Mithrim's defense is virtually identical to Vinyamar's. We're not going to argue which one is actually better, but whoever you put at #1 the other is #2. Bywater only mustered 4 goals but have a high scoring percentage of 16%, backed by a solid defense and a surprisingly good GK. People might whine they are lucky to be here and it should be Thangorodrim if it wasn't for Valimar's deus ex vendetta. The facts are these though, Bywater got the draw against Thangorodrim. If Thangorodrim wants to complain about being cheated they should have taken care of business against Bywater, they did not. It's just very unfortunate Bywater's got to take on Mithrim. If they were actually against one of the other giants, I'd like their chances better.
09. Barad-Dur (s)
-OFF: 5 / **FW- Sauron (14)
-DEF: 1.5 / DF- Anarion (5)
-GK: 2.5 / The Mouth- 75.0%
-OVR: 7
I questioned whether Barad-dur should qualify as a slayer, because their numbers are near even with the Barrow-Downs. I mean you could seriously flip-flop the #8 and #9 teams, the reason Barrow-Downs were group winners is they gave up 1 fewer goal. However, Barad Dur fit the qualifications, they finished 2nd, and are not seen as a semi-finalist. You'll notice I gave a 5 to both Tirion and Barad-dur in offense. How can this be when Tirion scored 3 more goals? Barad-Dur's 20.5% scoring is how, that's the best percentage. With Sauron these bad boys can't be counted out, and with their leaky defense the match against Gondolin should be a high scoring thriller.

08. Barrow-Downs
-OFF: 4.5 / FW- Nogrod (15)
-DEF: 3.5 / DF- Skip (10)
-GK: 2 / Eomerwarg- 71.4%
-OVR: 7.25
In one of the best offensive groups Barrow-Downs defense performend leagues ahead of the other teams in their group. I mean take a look at Barad Dur's numbers giving up 40(20), compared to the Barrow Downs' 25(14). That's a staggering difference, as this defense is just chokes off all space. The big problem...Eomerwarg who out of the 16 goal keepers, ranks 15th. With how the defense in front of him is playing, he's got to start saving more. If he does The Barrow-Downs are capable of beating anyone.

07. Tirion (G)
-OFF: 5 / *MF- Nerdanel (21)
-DEF: 2 / DF- Indis (2)
-GK: 2.5 / Aule- 73.7%
-OVR: 7.25
By far the best offensive team and there are 4 or 5 different players who can score a goal at any minute. However, when you crunch all their numbers, we see the same problem from previous years, defense is just not good enough, and Aule hasn't been anything to brag about either. This Aman match will be interesting, for while I don't think Aman's defense is good enough to shut down Tirion, they certainly are better than any of the ones Tirion faced in Group H. I'll say this, if Tirion scores 4 goals, I will admit to under-valueing their offensive power, but if they get 2, I want AKM to print I'm 100% correct about how Tirion's attack can be slowed down, and even stopped if, up against a quality defense. (If they score 3, I'll consider it a push and the jury will still be out )

06. Vinyamar
-OFF: 3 / MF- Idril (10)
-DEF: 5 / **DF- Ulmo (12)
-GK: 4.5 / Rog- 87.5%
-OVR: 7.75
A respectively efficient offense, that scored 5 goals in a defensive group, add to that the best defense and you have a very dangerous and very strong team. This is something I will agree with AKM about, if you start diving into arguments over which groups tougher than others and trying to factor that into evaluating the stats, you will just drive yourself crazy. Here's the deal, Vinyamar's defense was by far the best of Group A, and thus arguably the best in the tournament. And they averaged 1.67 goals in that group, 'nuff said. Do not underestimate them.

05. Gondolin (G)
-OFF: 3.5 / MF- Glorfindel (10)
-DEF: 4.5 / *Thorondor (12)
-GK: 4.5 / Huor- 88.9%
-OVR: 8
Before anyone goes up in arms over how can Gondolin be a giant when they didn't even sweep their group and how can they be above Tirion, here's how. Every single player on Gondolin is just as good on offense as they are on defense, they play both extremely well. Defensively they were right behind Vinyamar and Mithrim, allowing 23 (9) shots. Huor is a proven playoff GK, making big saves to get Dor Lomin to the quater-final round last year. And they are similar to Tirion offensively, that is you see a great spread of production from top to bottom. At some point every FW or MF contributed with a goal or assist.

04. Valimar (G)
-OFF: 4 / MF- Arien (18)
-DEF: 4 / **DF- Manwe (11)
-GK: 4 / *Namo- 86.7%
-OVR: 8
Biggest weakness is they are goal bingers. They want to annhilate the baddies, but against goodies they aren't inspired. The game against Norbury will be tight, and because of that they could very well lose, because Norbury will not play intimidated against the Valar. It's interesting that the potential to face Utumno in the next round might provide Valimar with enough umph to want to beat Norbury in Round 1. Then they can knock out the only remaining evil-doers of Utumno and blow their semi-final match. However their laissez-faire attitude to let the good guys defeat big bad evil on their own may just provide the Norbury slayers an opportunity at the upset.

03. Utumno (G)
-OFF: 3.5 / FW- Tilion (18)
-DEF: 4.5 / **DF- Balrog 4 (12)
-GK: 5 / *Ungoliant- 100%
-OVR: 8.25
An intimidatingly strong Balrog defense, plus the best goalie thus far, Utumno looks like they will be one of the teams to beat. And don't worry too much about that small scoring % of 13.3%. They were up against 2 great goal keepers in that group, as well as some tough defenses. And despite that they managed 45 total shots, that was only behind Tirion's 56. With how many chances they create, the goals will come a plenty.

02. Eithel Sirion (G)
-OFF: 4 / *FW- Maedhros (15)
-DEF: 4.5 / DF- Aegnor (12)
-GK: 4.5 / Maglor- 90%
-OVR: 8.5
I was surprised that Eithel Sirion, statistically ended up as the 2nd best team. But here's the deal, they scored 7 goals and only allowed 1. They were a top-5 defense and Maglor was the 2nd best GK. We'll see if he can keep that up against sturdier FWs. He did great against the 'lesser' Men and Elves that he saw in Group D, the greater Numenoreans should be a stiffer test. Also, their scoring is not as spread out as other teams. You have Maedhras, Fingon, and Hador doing the brunt of the work on offense. Can't find too much to complain when you have 3 players like that who can score, but past them, there's not much.

01. Mithrim (G)
-OFF: 4 / **FW- Turin (18)
-DEF: 5 / *DF- Celegorm (15)
-GK: 4.5 / **Huan- 87.5%
-OVR: 8.75
Above and beyond the best team, and the clear favorites to win it all right now. All around they played leagues above everyone else. Of all the stats I factored into the power rankings, Mithrim was the only team who was Top 5 in ALL OF THEM...oh wait, they ranked 6th best in scoring percentage, my mistake on that one. One potential problem I see, and this is why they only rate a 4 in offense (despite being tied for 2nd most goals). They scored 4 of those goals against Pelennor, while only 2-each against the much better organized defenses of Nargothrond and Norbury. However, winning every match 2-0, 2-1 is still winning.

PREDICTIONS:

Vinyamar 2 - 1 Dol Guldur
Barrow Downs 2 - 2 Gondor (BD wins in shoot out. This is purely to brag if I get it right )
Mithrim 2 - 0 Bywater
Eithel Sirion 1 - 2 Numenor
Utumno 2 - 0 Gelion
Valimar 1 - 2 Norbury (Norbury wins in overtime)
Gondolin 4 - 2 Barad Dur
Tirion 2 - 1 Aman

[skip spence]

You Americans really are crazy about the sports stats, aren't you?

*shakes head*

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by skip spence

You Americans really are crazy about the sports stats, aren't you?

And a Finn...

Heh, I totally understand Boro! When I was a kid I just made stats after stats. It's nice to have a reason to continue that 40+.

*shuts his mouth for unrelated comments*

[the phantom]

Vinyamar was a hive of activity leading up to the first round of the playoffs. Many of the fans who had made the trip for group play from Ithilien, Aman, and Beleriand had remained in the city, hoping to nab a ticket for the playoff match. And true to their word, all of the dwarf renovation crews were still there, and could be seen strolling the streets in the evenings draped in banners supporting the home team.

During the days they were quite busy however, as they had been hired for new building projects- mostly home rebuildings, though in a few cases the construction of brand new dwellings upon the slopes of Mount Taras. Men, Elves, and Dwarves who had visited the abandoned city had simply fallen in love with it- the beautiful stone-work of the Noldor set upon the side of picturesque Mount Taras overlooking magnificent rocky shores. With so much already prepared and excellent starting material, it was the perfect spot for a “new” city.

But despite all of the development, talk of football still reigned supreme leading up to the match against Dol Guldur. The Mirkwood fortress had only a very small following that made the trip to the far northwest, but they were loud and boisterous- a smattering of Beornings, Orcs, Elves, and spiders. The fans of Dol Guldur and the team itself seemed to have a higher level of confidence than one would expect from a group runner-up on the road facing a group winner. Part of this was certainly derived from the fine run made by Mirkwood in last year’s tournament. Four of the players on this team were on that side, and most all of the supporters in attendance were huge supporters of Mirkwood.

Another reason for the confidence was perhaps the number of publications and sports bloggers who had chosen them to advance in this match- understandable perhaps due to Dol Guldur being the “sexier” team. Khamul, Beorn, Bolg son of Azog, and Radagast the wizard have a lot of appeal, and of course The Witch King is one of the biggest stars of football. And topping it off, Dol Guldur played an aggressive game, and liked getting into exciting scoring contests.

Vinyamar was the opposite. They played a controlled game, and preferred to keep the scoring low and not leave themselves open to counters. When interviewed before the match, Dol Guldur midfielder Beorn had this to say. “Vinyamar doesn’t press their advantage ruthlessly, so I don’t think they will be able to score a ton on us. They depend on winning games 1-0 or 2-1, but they won’t be able to hold us under two. We have some great individual offensive talents, and especially Witch King always comes through for us!”

When presented with Beorn’s quote, Vinyamar defender Ulmo conceded the point to an extent, but begged to differ on the result. “It’s quite true that Witch King can’t be held off the scoreboard individually. I will be marking him personally, but I can guarantee he will get the better of me at least a time or two. What is key at those moments is that all the rest of my teammates are not beat at the same time. If you take away WK’s support, keep players from delivering the ball to him, cut off his passing lanes, and hold the ball efficiently with your own offense, he can be taken out of the game. It’s not about the individual- it’s about the team!”

And as the opening minutes of the game ticked past, Ulmo looked to be an expert prognosticator, for his words were proving to be right on the money. From the word go the midfielders and forwards of Vinyamar played a brilliant possession game. Egalmoth to Duilin, up to Tuor, back to Idril, expertly sent over to Voronwe, quickly up to Penlod, touched back to Idril... It was an absolute clinic on intelligent spacing and precision passing!

The home side ever so slowly built up the pressure, refusing to overreach, but always on the lookout for an opening. Just inside of twenty minutes they had their best chance yet and Tuor took the shot, but Oropher tipped it away. Soon after Dol Guldur made their first successful journey into Vinayamar territory, but found it impossible to get a decent try. Khamul for the first time tested Rog around minute 27, but it was a distant and rushed effort and Rog had no problems, and soon the ball was back on the other side, and the chanting of the crowd began to grow.

In minute 32 there was mass rejoicing in the stands as the Lord of the Waters himself punched in the rebound following a corner! Dol Guldur looked frankly overwhelmed, and they went to the half lucky to be down only one. And when the second half started things didn’t get any better. Witch King and company looked focused and reenergized, but all of their fire and effort was totally in vain as Vinyamar again was flawless on offense and suffocating on defense. Barely ten minutes into play Tuor managed to get the ball away from Attercop, who had unwisely chosen to hold the ball and fend Tuor off, and with the players from Dol Guldur already running the other way hoping for a quick strike Vinyamar caught the opposition with their pants down and Penlod slotted it to Idril for the 2-0 lead!

Celebration broke out all throughout the arena! In seven games played (four friendlies and three group games), no opponent had managed to score more than one goal on Vinyamar, and only three of seven teams had managed the single goal. Except for a complete breakdown, this match was in the bag!

The Witch King attempted to breathe new life into his side, pointing out that they had in both of their previous two matches stormed back from a 2-0 deficit with three goals in the final 20 minutes. Beorn, Grimbeorn, Oropher, and Radagast stood with their captain, looking defiant and determined, but the rest of the team looked unconvinced. Never before had they encountered such a perfect storm of talent, execution, and teamwork, with the crowd on top of it working their magic for the home team.

With around 20 minutes left Witch King finally broke loose, making a highlight reel solo run all the way from midfield. At the last he beat Osse and got his shot off, but Osse had forced him over just enough and delayed him so that Rog would have a prayer at the save, and the valiant Noldo came through, deflecting the thunderous effort away. It bounded away in front of the exposed net, but Ulmo was first to it, and he wasted no time in booting it far downfield, and the crowd simply exploded! They had taken Dol Guldur’s best shot and turned it away! This match was over.

There was still some time to burn through, but the wind was completely out of the sails for the visitors. Even Witch King looked resigned, and Vinyamar had no problems finishing the contest off. The refs signaled the game over and the players climbed up into the stands and joined in the merry making. They were through to the quarterfinals!

Dol Guldur 0-2 Vinyamar
tot shots 8-12
on target 3-6
GOALS:
*32, 0-1 Ulmo (Duilin)
*56, 0-2 Idril (Penlod)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Dol Guldur- Grimbeorn, Thrain
*Vinyamar- Galdor, Idril

[Nogrod]

There was no question about Arda’s footballing centre as the qualifiers started. It was Beleriand. Four of the eight matches were hosted by Beleriand teams – and one could count Utumno as the fifth – and even BarrowDowns’ initial hometown was here at Tol-In-Gaurhoth. The most enthusiasted Belerianders talked about Beleriand beating Valimar thus far 6-2 in the group winner counts (with the rest of the ME at zero). But be that reckless boasting or not, it was clear the eyes of the footballing community were fixed mainly in Beleriand for the time being.


A long-expected party

Unlike Gondolin who were experienced hosts team Mithrim was hosting games the first time. They had built a nice stadium to west-Mithrim, in between the lake and the mountains near old outposts of High-King Fingolfin. It wasn’t the grandest stadium in scale but it was elegantly crafted and took in comfortably some 40000 spectators. More would have wished to see the great heroes of Mithrim face the wizards of Bywater but happily there were other matches nearby at Eithel Sirion and Gondolin to ease the pressure at ticket offices.

In the press conference before the game the representatives of both teams were smooth and amiable towards each other. Even when the press tried to make Beleg admit that Bywater had been qualified without their own merit and that they would have an easy evening out, he only pointed out at the level of play of the wizards, the constantly upgrading performances of Rosie Cotton, the threat Shadofax and the Nazguls would pose them in their defence, the unexpectedness of the Hobbits…

The game itself turned out to be exactly as anticipated by the experts on ME football. Bywater was not such a bad team some had thought after the manner they qualified, but there was a difference in the level the two teams played from the very beginning. And so, clearly enjoying playing at the familiar surroundings, Aradan scored after only 8 minutes of the game. Fifteen minutes after the first goal Mithrim doubled their lead with Húrin putting in a nice header from a nice pass given by Beleg. It was 2-0 after less than twenty-five minutes of play and the tension kind of waned.

Come second half the Bywater team really made an effort and more or less got Mithrim by the tail as they were clearly not anticipating such an offensive stance from their opponent. And even if Mithrim managed to contain the steam from Bywater offence after the first ten minutes of the second half, the game was played on much more even ground now. And lo and behold! At 67th minute Mithrim was building an attack when Ferny tackled the ball away from Morwen. Shadowfax was the first to reach the ball and sent it flying far behind the Mithrim defences parked more or less at the middle of the field following the offence… and it was Saruman who suddenly was reaching for the ball first! No one quite realised where did he materialise behind the defenders who tried frantically to reach him, but he was on his way and dribbled Huan himself like he was a mere pet doggy.

It took more or less the whole Mithrim team and Gandalf to cool Huan down after the goal as he tried to go after Saruman who decided to vanish from sight with some magic just to be safe. No one knew what Saruman had done either to deceive the defence or to fool Huan but there sure would be something to speculate after the game.

The vivid feeling of being wrongly scored against made Mithrim more energetic and the rest of the game was basically playing for one goal, that of Bywater. With basically all of Mithrim players attacking it was finally Curufin who made the third goal with a trademark kind of a powerful shot from 25 meters thus finally ending Bywater’s resistance. Two goals behind with ten minutes left in a stadium that frantically supported the hometeam which felt wronged by the visitors was not exactly the easiest place to make a comeback to the game…

But even if Saruman’s trickery caused a lot of discussion after the game even more talk was made about Túrin and his disappearance. No, it was not like with Bombadill. He didn’t leave the field to gather flowers or anything, but he was somehow anemic, not taking part in the attack with full throttle but passing the ball from him. Beleg defended his friend in the after-match press conference saying that Túrin doesn’t have to score ten goals in every game and he has the right to let the others play every now and then. But few in the press took that explanation without a fair pinch of salt. Was there something wrong with Túrin, had he being offended with the speculation that he was too selfish?

The Mithrim fans were upbeat because of their win and place in the semifinals, but there was a small shadow there, the unpredictability of Túrin. It seems that follows him everywhere he goes.


Bywater 1-3 Mithrim
tot shots 7-18
on target 3-9
GOALS:
*8, 0-1 Aradan (Androg)
*23, 0-2 Hurin (Beleg)
*67, 1-2 Saruman (Shadowfax)
*80, 1-3 Curufin (Morwen)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Bywater- Saruman, Ferny, Nazgul #3
*Mithrim- Aradan

[skip spence]

The stands in the great stadium of Either Sirion was a sea of silver and blue as the teams made it out on the pitch and the two captains, Elros and Maedhros, exchanged gifts and shook hands. On certain sections in the stands brass bands of Noldorian musicians were set up and they played triumphant songs out of Aman, adding that special touch of magic we’ve come to expect at this Northern stronghold. The Exiles felt no homesickness tonight. They were exactly where they wanted to be.

Numenor also had a fair number of travelling fans present, many of them with golden replicas of the Arda Cup trophy that they proudly hoisted in the air to demonstrate that they in fact were reining champions, but the Kings of Men were not favourites to win tonight. Eithel Sirion had impressed so far in the tournament, winning all three matches thus far and cruising through Group D. The Northerners were certainly in for a stiffer challenge tonight, yet without star players such as former Golden Boot winner Ar-Pharazon in Numenor, a balanced Eithel Sirion side was tipped to win tonight by most pundits, and the home crowd was hungry for glory and joy.

As play got underway, it quickly became apparent that Numenor had laid up a defensive game plan and were quite happy to let their opponents keep the lion’s share of ball possession, only striking out with quick counter attacks when given the chance. Yet quickly this plan backfired. In the 11th minute Fingon won a corner kick, and Gwindors delivery was perfect, whipping in a devilish cross into the box where Maedhros the tall rose above his marker and headed the ball past Tar-Atanamir and into the back of the net. The crowd was in seventh heaven and the trumpets rang out loud and clear.

This early goal was a real boost for the home side who grew in confidence and played some very neat football. Numenor struggled to get a hold of the ball and could have fallen behind even further if it wasn’t for a couple of good stops from Tar-Atanamir, first denying Maedhros and then Fingon. Yet right before the half time break Numenor was level against the run of play. It was a pretty scrappy goal as Elros bundled home on his second attempt but they all count and Numenor could now go into the recess on level terms with their opponent despite being on the back foot for most parts of the game thus far.

The second half was very competitive and roughly followed the same pattern as the first, but Numenor was getting into the match more now, and the impressive Elros really started to make his presence felt in the centre of the field, getting some crunching tackles in and distributing the ball well to his teammates. Eithel Sirion continued to attack, and the crowd got behind their heroes, but the break-though goal proved hard indeed to find, as Numenor defended with skill and numbers.

Both teams struggled to create clear goal-scoring opportunities and as the clock ticked in Eithel Sirion pushed more and more men forward looking for that illusive winner. They pumped ball after ball into the Numenor box but there the tall and kingly central defenders dealt with most of the crosses fairly comfortably.

The match looked set to go into overtime when out of the blue, Numenor scored again and put a big dent in the home team’s plan. Fingon will feel desperately disappointed because it was his mistake that led to the goal, as his sloppy pass in the centre of the field was intercepted by Elros when the Eithel Sirion players were all set on getting forward. The Numenor captain spotted Tar-Miriel rushing forward , and picked her out with a lovely sweeping ball and the midfielder in turn spotted Ar-Adunakhor's strong run and timed her through ball to perfection, thus releasing the striker on a one on one with Maglor. Ar-Adunakhor took one touch before lashing an unstoppable shot into the far corner, his third goal of the tournament. That finish would have made the Golden Boy himself proud.

Eithel Sirion tried to rally, but Numenor was not giving them an inch now, and what time there was left, quickly ran out. Even goalkeeper Maglor came forward on a corner kick late in the game, and there was a frantic finale to the game as Numenor was desperately hanging on with teeth and nails but Eithel Sirion could not find the goal needed to stay in the match, despite a few late half-chances.

The full time whistle sounded and Numenor could celebrate a place in the last eight with their travelling supporters. The home crowd applauded the winners respectfully but they were bitterly disappointed. What had just happened? The evening had started so well. Now all that was left to them was memories.

Eithel Sirion 1-2 Numenor
tot shots 14-11
on target 6-5
GOALS:
*11, 1-0 Maedhros (Gwindor)
*43, 1-1 Elros (Tar Palantir)
*85, 1-2 Ar Adunakhor (Tar Miriel)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Eithel Sirion- Fingon, Aegnor
*Numenor- Tar Miriel, Tar Meneldur, Ar Zimrathan

[the phantom]

Fresh off of their dismantling of Thangorodrim, Valimar was riding high heading into the playoffs. “I think we’ve finally got it right this year,” commented Eonwe after group play was wrapped up. “We’ve got a great mix of talent and attitudes. Some of us fire up the guys who are too passive, while they in turn calm down the hot-headed ones. Our balance is right where it needs to be.”

The home favorites were matched up against the grizzled veterans from Norbury, who had managed to advance out of a tough Group C after a close loss to the dominating Mithrim (2-1), a tie with annual competitor Nargothrond (1-1), and finally a victory over the new but dangerous team from Pelennor (2-1). In an effort to make the match more interesting, many columnists attempted to point out the tough road Norbury had navigated, but it was not holding water with most of the populace, as Valimar’s competition wasn’t exactly easy (Bywater and Thangorodrim), and they had been much more impressive in friendlies.

And in the build up to the match, the guys from Norbury didn’t seem to disagree in the least, showering the Valar and company with an obscene number of compliments. Goal-keeper Arvedui, for instance: “I’m not looking forward to facing Valimar. They have so much talent, and stay on their game so well. Naturally I’m going to compete as hard as I can in an honorable fashion, but I’m not expecting to be around for the quarterfinals.”

Some version of “We’re going to try darn hard but probably lose” seemed to be the lone sentiment the Kings and Rangers of the North wished to express. Most fans and pundits thought the whole thing rather ridiculous and shameful, but a couple sports writers had a different view.

“This is brilliant gamesmanship by Norbury,” said one columnist yesterday in the Arnor Sun. “Valimar is a team that plays better when inspired. Just look at how they played against Thangorodrim. You don’t want to do anything to stir them up. Norbury is doing a great job of making sure they won’t be playing a ramped up opponent.”

No one knew for certain what the facts were behind Norbury’s behavior, but the time for pre-game strategy was over. It was time to play the game.

The stadium in Valimar offered plenty of support as the home team trotted out, but it was noticeably calmer than it was for the match against their hated foes from Thangorodrim. When Norbury entered there was not the roar of boos, but rather polite applause. If Norbury’s aim had indeed been to appease team Valimar and their supporters, their efforts seemed to have worked.

As the match began the home side looked a step slow where as Norbury took off like a rocket, giving it all they had. Before Valimar could recover Araphor and Aranarth busted the offsides trap and put the ball in for the 1-0 lead, and the crowd was silenced in only the sixth minute! But at the least the team on the field was shaken, and Valimar got serious after that. Manwe and the defense stopped everything before it started, and the midfield worked it up to Arien and Eonwe and let them go to work.

But Norbury was battle-tested and saavy, and Arvedui was a rock between the posts, and so despite their best efforts Valimar could not grab the equalizer. By the time the half arrived, the crowd was feeling better about their chances and they were starting to get back into it. Norbury was playing well, but they couldn’t keep Valimar off the board forever.

Only twelve minutes into the new half, it was the hero of the Thangorodrim game, Arien, who put the home team on the board. For the first time the stadium bells were struck and the crowd started to make some serious noise, though the length of the celebratory cheering was cut short by the antics of Norbury. Following the goal, all the lads from Norbury trotted over and patted Arien on the back, or shook her hand, congratulating her on the effort. The keeper, Arvedui, actually waved to get her attention and made a show of clapping, to all eyes quite sincerely impressed by her goal.

Some fans expressed shock while others laughed, but it certainly threw them off rhythm of their cheers and the stadium grew a bit quieter. It seemed to impact the Valimar players as well, as they seemed just a touch less aggressive when play started again. Norbury continued to defend doggedly, but any time there was extra contact they apologized. The combination of fine team defense and attitude totally sucked the air out of the Valimar attack, and the game settled into the midfield, and the minutes ticked away with neither side gaining a decent chance for the winner.

With less than ten minutes to go, Arien and the Blue Wizards tried to pep things up and put the match away, but the rest of the team didn’t have it in them or simply wouldn’t follow their lead, and quite soon time was out and it was overtime!

As extra time began the crowd seemed to finally wake up to reality- this was the PLAYOFFS and it was win or go home! Their team just had to win, at all costs! As the crowd support kicked in the team on the field looked to have new life and came forward with new resolve, building up the attack. Less than ten minutes in Tulkas was barely denied off a header rebound, and the crowd groaned. Five minutes later Eonwe went up high on a corner and put it into the corner of the posts, only to have Arvedui tip it up and over. The Norbury keeper was really on his game much to the dismay of the crowd.

In the 18th minute it looked like Valimar was set to break through at last, when off a counter there was only Valandur left to face a charging Eonwe and Arien, but Valandur faked his commitment brilliantly and managed to toe away Arien’s pass to Eonwe. Quickly to the loose ball was Malvegil, who whirled and sent it deep down the right side with no hesitation, catching everyone going the wrong direction- except Malbeth. The famed Seer was already breaking (perhaps aided by his gift of sight?), and he controlled it and broke in from the corner towards the goal. He dribbled right past Manwe and Pallando, and put on the brakes to let Vana rush past, then sent it perfectly over to Araphor who was just an inch ahead of Alatar. The inch was all he need, as he deflected it perfectly back across to the far post, catching the keeper Namo diving the opposite way to cover the near post.

Team Norbury’s small section of fans went completely nuts, but the team on the field restrained any celebration and merely took their spots. Team Valimar tried desperately for the equalizer in the final minutes, but they just didn’t have their edge, while Norbury’s defense was better than ever, buoyed up by the success they were having against the vaunted Ainu. At last when the final second disappeared from the clock, Norbury let loose and celebrated like they had won the Cup. They knew going in that the only way they could win was to suck the competitive juices out of their opponents, quiet the crowd, and play a near flawless game, and they had done all three! Improbable as it was, they were through to the quarterfinals!

Norbury 2-1 Valimar (OVERTIME)
tot shots 7-13
on target 3-6
GOALS:
*6, 1-0 Araphor (Aranarth)
*57, 1-1 Arien (Varda)
*18, 2-1 Araphor (Malbeth)
YELLOW CARDS:
*Norbury- Argeleb
*Valimar- Arien, Vana, Pallando, Yavanna