WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[wintywinty]

Lottie got killed last night. There is two probable reasons for this. One, the wolves discovered her Gifted-ness. Or Two, her list of Suspects was close to dead-on. I didn't include her not being traced to anyone, because with Lottie's plethora of posts, someone could easily find a connection. Because I can not find no connection and so far no one has pointed out the possibility of Lottie being the Defender, then I am going with the assumption that reason two is correct, then the three Lottie listed yesterday as Morphish or Possible Morphish were Wilwa, Izzy, and Pitchwife. Wilwa was lynched, therefore my top two candidates for Morph/Traitor are Izzy and Pitchwife, with Pitchwife being on top, due to the fact that it seems as though Wilwa was almost following his lead, voting for her 4th option, and only 4 minutes after Pitchwife voted Paranoia.

[Rikae]

Izzy, I think it basically comes down to you and I having different philosophies of WW. My track record over the last three and a half years is not entirely horrible, so I'd appreciate it if you would stop talking to me as though I knew nothing. Putting words in your mouth? No, but I'm reading your attitude, as it comes through in your posts. Often I find attitudes more revealing than words in this game, and when something works, I use it. I couldn't disagree more with your philosophy, which seems to hinge on "anything's possible", which is true enough, but useless - and some things are more likely than others. It's far more likely for an innocent to make silly blunders, flip-flops, etc. than a wolf, and the difference can usually be detected with close observation. But don't listen to me. *shrug* As for you, you don't seem, to me to be quite as defensive as you would be if evil; plus, I don't want to allow philosophical differences to cloud my judgment. I'm a bit more concerned about Pitch at the moment, and await his answers.
Wintywinty - I actually tend to think the morphs suspected Lottie as the defender. I know I did. A while back, she asked quite a few questions about the ability of the gifteds to find each other - she seemed a bit too interested, if you know what I mean. At least she was able to successfully protect the... what? werebear's?... target last night.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wintywinty

Wilwa was lynched, therefore my top two candidates for Morph/Traitor are Izzy and Pitchwife, with Pitchwife being on top, due to the fact that it seems as though Wilwa was almost following his lead, voting for her 4th option, and only 4 minutes after Pitchwife voted Paranoia.

That would have been a pretty bold move if Pitch was Wilwa's packmate, and it doesn't seem likely they would have taken such a risk. Wilwa knew she'd been under suspicion most of the Day, and she had to have known it was at least possible she would be lynched, so I find it hard to believe she would have been so quick to link herself with Pitch.

[Pitchwife]

Right, I'm here at last.

Originally Posted by Paranoia

You know, reading this over, Pitch, I'm finding you really intersting right now.

Let's start with your analysis of yesterday's votes and actions, and your, you know, overall willingness to attack someone who so far hasn't posted or said anything at all today. Yes, lets.

Noia, I agree it was bad form to vote you without letting you answer to my suspicion before, but I waited for you to show up as long as I reasonably could, and indeed a bit longer. My problem is that DL in my timezone is 5am, which is an hour before I have to get up for work, so except for weekends, I have to vote hours before you come online. As deplorable as this is, I don't think it should keep me from voting you if I think I have good reasons to do so. Nor vice versa.

So the question remains whether I really had good reasons. I thought I had at the time, but looking back, I'm a lot less confident about them now than I was yesterDay. Anyway, I'll try to explain how I got there.

Originally Posted by Noia

I don't think I really have to defend myself on the BG vote; I put down why I voted her, reasons beyond the "omg the lists didn't match up" and I did indeed look at both lists; the explanation made absolutely no sense to me and it still doesn't, because the titles were different, and she had obviously reworked bits and pieces of it. There was simply no other conclusion I could come to in my mind. And I honestly think the person who looks the worse out of what happened in the last 20 or so minutes is Willwuffin, because no matter how I read her posts there it all felt like the same thing.

"I really think BG is innocent but I'm not going to deign to tell you guys why I think so, despite how blatantly suspect she is being. I'm going to blithely throw my vote away on sally, and continue saying that even though I think BG is really innocent, I'm not going to meaningfully help her in any shape or form."

Yes, you gave reasons beyond the list issue, and I believe I said in my summary yesterDay that your vote actually looked the best in terms of reasoning. And about wilwa, she definitely looked the worst, but I thought there was a meager chance that she'd been actually trying to help but gave up because no one was listening (her throwaway vote would still have been bad, of course). Thankfully, that's cleared up now.

Still, I thought and think it was reasonable to assume that at least one of the morphs was involved in the process of lynching BG (to avoid the word bandwagon, if you object to it), simply because of the other players alive yesterDay (beside wilwa), only Lottie had made a vote at all, and I didn't see her as morphish. That left of course the non-voters, but how do you draw conclusions from a non-vote?

From there on, it was basically a process of elimination, as Rikae put it... although I'm afraid the last stages of it weren't entirely logical.

Originally Posted by Noia

On another note, when Shasta and Izzy showed up to defend themselves, you were readily willing to relent; you went from one to the next and then finally me, but as interesting as that is, you completely ignored Zul. It's one thing to vote an innocent with a reason and turn out wrong. It's another thing to vote an innocent without saying a bloody thing, being wrong, and skating by. Something's off there.

I don't believe I 'entirely ignored' Zil. I noted the lack of a reason given in his vote post, and his sealing BG's fate; he replied to that and explained himself, and it made sense to me. Also I didn't and still don't see him acting the way I think a Zilmorph would. (Add with hindsight that our late and lamented Lottie, who claims she can 'totally read him', had him in the 'probable innocent' category in her last list.)

Shasta's defense convinced me; Izzy's not so much, at least initially; but as she got more and more exasperate, I started developping doubts about her, and likewise with wilwa.

And there was the point which you adress here:

Originally Posted by Noia

Also, to those who are going "He was in the middle of the BG voters where he can skate on by!!!!" Really let me ask you; are you just trying to get on my nerves with that logic? Morphs, Wolves, and Mafia will vote in any order they please. And I don't really call it bandwagoning when someone can provide decent reasoning; bandwagoning to me is just simply voting for someone with an overall rehashed reason.

Originally Posted by Noia

But let's have a hypothetical situation. Let's say I was a morph. Would I have any reason to vote BG, or further add fuel to the fire when it looked like she was going to get lynched on her own anyway? Nope. It's like last game. Every post of her's added fuel to the metaphorical fire, and the more I looked at her the worse I felt about her. I said as much, and I gave reasoning for why I felt the way I did. If I was Morphanoia, I would have known she was innocent. I probably would have thrown an insubstantial vote on someone I was more suspicious earlier in the day on say... Eomer. That way I have a throwaway that isn't a, you know, obvious throwaway.

Well, the thing about morphs in the middle isn't of course a universal truth, but still I think it rather more probable than anything else, given that scum of any description don't want to stick out. And saying 'If I were a morph I wouldn't have done x but rather y' is a standard wolfish defense, as you mention yourself.

Originally Posted by Noia

Another thing is your basically list topping suspicion of Wilowil.. and yet you still vote me. Something's off there, considering you've basically link her with me/shasta/izzy as the definite member of whatever morphpack is on the ship. Care to explain why you voted me above the one constant amongst your conjecture?

OK, what happened in my head in the final two or three hours before my vote was that on the one hand I was becoming more and more confused about Izzy and wilwa, while on the other hand the suspicion I had against you went into a sort of feedback loop and developped into something not entirely dissimilar to a certain psychic disorder from which your nick is derived - to the point where I actually saw wilwa sharing my suspicion of you as a point for her innocence, instead of the other way round, as would have been more reasonable.

"Well well if you're a wolf you're dangerous!" Doesn't cut it. That is always a horrible reason, because you are basically bringing a justification into the game that boils down to "what if they're a wolf?"

I stand corrected, sir.

All in all, I think I had some valid points against you. Whether they really added up to a conclusive case at the time... I thought they did, but I'm not that sure anymore. If I could have read your response before having to vote, I most likely wouldn't have voted you. What I probably should have done is stick with the 'one constant', wilwa, and give you the benefit of doubt till toDay.

And now that we know wilwa was indeed a morph, you obviously look a lot better - I have a hard time seeing her bandwagoning on my vote as morph-on-morph; have to think it through, but at the moment it doesn't seem likely to me.

Rikae, I hope this also answers your question about my vote. As for the other one: of course the Defender or Assassin wouldn't have known any morphs. What I was trying to say in the post you quoted were two independent points:
1. If Eomer happened to be right about another morph beside sally, that would have been a good reason for them to get rid of him.
2. Whether 1. is true or not, they may also have thought him one of the remaining Agents. He certainly behaved mysteriously enough on Day 1 to smell gifted.
Sorry if I didn't make that clear enough.

Phew. This took me ages to write, now let me see what happened in the meantime.

[Pitchwife]

winty - if I understand you correctly, you're saying that I first killed Eomer because he suspected me and next killed Lottie because she suspected me. Now my reasoning may not always be flawless, but I like to believe that I wouldn't be daft enough to leave such a clear trail. Especially not since I could have foreseen that I'd be in for some scrutiny toDay after my vote and wilmorph 's wagoning on it. (And yeah, I realize I've just used the classic "I wouldn't do that as a wolf" defense I talked about above. Nevertheless.)

[wintywinty]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

winty - if I understand you correctly, you're saying that I first killed Eomer because he suspected me and next killed Lottie because she suspected me. Now my reasoning may not always be flawless, but I like to believe that I wouldn't be daft enough to leave such a clear trail. Especially not since I could have foreseen that I'd be in for some scrutiny toDay after my vote and wilmorph 's wagoning on it. (And yeah, I realize I've just used the classic "I wouldn't do that as a wolf" defense I talked about above. Nevertheless.)

But you would know as a wolf that everyone would discount this trail for being too easy, that everyone would think "no wolf would do that" thereby allowing you to do that.

[Rikae]

Pitch, I'm a bit uneasy about the way you used the "exasperated innocent" explanation for both Izzy and Wilwa, and then lump them in similarly together toDay. I thought Wilwa and Izzy's behavior was quite different, and absolving two players with that one reason? Well, I don't know if I really buy it in Wilwa's case.
As for Wilwa bandwagoning on a fellow morph's vote, I think it's possible. She's been around long enough to see that it wouldn't *necessarily* leave a trail.
As for Pitch killing Eomer and Lottie because they suspected him - that's not even necessary. Whoever the last morph is, as I said before, I'm almost certain they killed Lottie as a suspected gifted. I don't know about Pitch, but when I'm evil, getting the gifteds is priority number one. Trails? Those are nonsense anyway. There are very few wolves out there any more who will simply and straightforwardly kill those who suspect them (too obvious) or avoid killing them even if they think they're gifted (because of point #1 - there's nothing terribly risky about killing someone who suspects one. Everyone will just call it a framing attempt anyway).
Thus, in response to Pitch's points here:

Originally Posted by Pitch

1. If Eomer happened to be right about another morph beside sally, that would have been a good reason for them to get rid of him.
2. Whether 1. is true or not, they may also have thought him one of the remaining Agents. He certainly behaved mysteriously enough on Day 1 to smell gifted.
Sorry if I didn't make that clear enough.

I say:
1. I don't think that's any more or less likely than the opposite. Since Pitch was one of those suspects, it makes him look nice and honest... a bit too much.
2. Eomer is always mysterious. However, it's nice to know that you, Pitch, found him giftedishly mysterious!

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by wintywinty

But if Wilwa is an experienced wolf, then she will know that everybody will discount that possibility, simply because it was "too simple", thereby allowing her to do it.

I didn't say that was out of the question, but I still think it unlikely.

Additionally, I think Pitch's words toDay thus far seem pretty reasonable.

Para looks fairly clean at the moment for his Wilwa vote, and his explanations yesterDay.

I don't agree with the majority of winty's points, but that doesn't mean he's evil.

Rikae? Always a tough one for me to figure out. She was laying low early on, at least more so than I might expect. However, yesterDay she looked more like the Rikae I remembered. She seemed to make some good points about Izzy. Her vote for Izzy seemed well-reasoned enough.

Izzy and Shasta were the other two (along with Lottie and me) in the BG wagon. It's quite obvious everyone who voted BG wasn't a Metamorph, but I do think it's highly improbable there were no Metas involved.

Shasta didn't vote, saying in the Admin Thread that he forgot about DL. Well, I guess it happens. He had been saying Wilwa would have been his vote. Anyone can say that, granted, but he'd also been suspecting her before, as I recall. Is wolf-on-wolf out of the question? No, but with only two of them left it would seem unnecessarily risky.

Which leaves Izzy. The sudden vote against Rikae bothers me somewhat. It might have been a knee-jerk reaction of an innocent against suspicion, but it could also have been a seizure of opportunity in finding a plausible reason to vote for someone besides Wilwa.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Para looks fairly clean at the moment for his Wilwa vote, and his explanations yesterDay.

Yep. I forgot to mention his own vote in my reply to him above, but that's another point for him.

I don't agree with the majority of winty's points, but that doesn't mean he's evil.

I obviously don't agree either. It bothers me a bit that he's been so goddamn convinced of my morphishness basically ever since he first showed up and no matter what happens, it always seems to fit his Pitchmorph theory, but up to now, he may be an innocent suffering from the same kind of tunnel vision and over-confidence that led to my vote yesterDay.

Originally Posted by -"-

Rikae? Always a tough one for me to figure out. She was laying low early on, at least more so than I might expect. However, yesterDay she looked more like the Rikae I remembered. She seemed to make some good points about Izzy. Her vote for Izzy seemed well-reasoned enough.

She looks decent enough to me. Neither morph nor traitor, I think (certainly not the latter, or she wouldn't have grilled me like that toDay). Could possibly be the CyberBear, or whatever it is, if anything.

Originally Posted by -"-

Izzy and Shasta were the other two (along with Lottie and me) in the BG wagon. It's quite obvious everyone who voted BG wasn't a Metamorph, but I do think it's highly improbable there were no Metas involved.

I thought, and still think, so too... Let's not ignore the Day 1 non-voters, though.

Originally Posted by -"-

Shasta didn't vote, saying in the Admin Thread that he forgot about DL. Well, I guess it happens. He had been saying Wilwa would have been his vote. Anyone can say that, granted, but he'd also been suspecting her before, as I recall. Is wolf-on-wolf out of the question? No, but with only two of them left it would seem unnecessarily risky.

I asked myself the same question about wilwa and Noia. In any other village, I wouldn't have ruled it out completely, but with a third party involved, I think they wouldn't have risked one of them being left alone. Another point for both Shasta and Noia.

Originally Posted by -"-

Which leaves Izzy. The sudden vote against Rikae bothers me somewhat. It might have been a knee-jerk reaction of an innocent against suspicion, but it could also have been a seizure of opportunity in finding a plausible reason to vote for someone besides Wilwa.

I don't at the moment know head from tail about Izzy.

EDIT: x-ed with Shasta, Shasta, Nerwen, winty, Zil and winty.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by wintywinty

But you would know as a wolf that everyone would discount this trail for being too easy, that everyone would think "no wolf would do that" thereby allowing you to do that.

And I would also know that they know that I know, and they would know that I know that they know, that I know, etc. etc. This isn't getting us anywhere.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitch, I'm a bit uneasy about the way you used the "exasperated innocent" explanation for both Izzy and Wilwa, and then lump them in similarly together toDay. I thought Wilwa and Izzy's behavior was quite different, and absolving two players with that one reason? Well, I don't know if I really buy it in Wilwa's case.

Yeah, it was different - Izzy lashing out at whoever was questioning her (first me, then you), wilwa more like pleading "why don't you all see what a good girl I've really been". What I said in that neverending post above was from memory, which can be deceiving. Looking at wilwa's later posts now, up to the point of my vote and hers, she actually became less defensive and seemed to be pulling herself together (which I liked at the time), until she was questioned again for her vote. The latter was after I'd left, but I'd read it up in the meantime and got the chronology mixed up. My bad.

As for yesterDay - yep, I used the same expression in both cases. I guess the best I can say is that at the moment I'm not terribly proud of my reasoning yesterDay. Pitch enamoured with his Paramorphia theory, believing he's had a stroke of genius while everybody's concentrating on Izzy and wilwa , and getting carried away so far that he lets the real morph off the hook... and in the process drawing enough suspicion to himself that the last morph is probably leaning back with a bowl of popcorn right now. Not to mention the Cyberbear, or WereCyborg, or whatever it is whose kill Lottie managed to prevent last Night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Paranoia

I'd like to say day 3, and two metamorphs down; fantastic work, crew.

There's that word again. "Fantastic". Wilwa said it too, you know.

Originally Posted by Paranoia

There is a hitch in whatever killed "Lieutenant Sally" But that's not our primary concern as of this moment; if it's not obvious.

Now this is certainly an eyebrow-raiser. Whatever killed Sally and attacked Lottie last night is pretty obviously some kind of were-Bear role. And in my experience, singular were-Bears generally have something going for them besides a simple nightkill to help them with survivability. Now, we've taken out two of the three Morphs, which leaves us with one Morph with a nightkill. Now, what I'm wondering is - why try to get us to discount the wereBear, who is clearly more dangerous than the lone Morph, completely?

Originally Posted by Inzil

That would have been a pretty bold move if Pitch was Wilwa's packmate, and it doesn't seem likely they would have taken such a risk. Wilwa knew she'd been under suspicion most of the Day, and she had to have known it was at least possible she would be lynched, so I find it hard to believe she would have been so quick to link herself with Pitch.

Interesting and slightly expected, given that I still think Zil is the traitor and suspect Pitch.

[Isabellkya]

Scratch my thought that the 3rd party and Metamorph were both after Loslote. She merely blocked the thirds attack.

known innocent known morph

Day 1:
Loslote -> Pitch
BG -> Loslote
Izzy -> BG
Shasta -> BG2
Paranoia -> BG3
Dun -> BG4
Wilwa -> Sally

Day2:
Pitch -> Paranoia
Wilwa -> Paranoia
Rikae -> Izzy
Paranoia -> Wilwa
Winty -> Pitch
Dun -> Wilwa2
Loslote -> Wilwa3
Izzy -> Rikae

Pitch -> Paranoia.
If you're wondering why, you haven't read my posts toDay. I'm not comfortable with voting him before he's had a chance to respond, but given our different time zones, it can't be helped. He looks like the most suspicious of the BG voters to me, and I'm not that confident about voting anybody else. And if he's indeed a morph, he's a dangerous one, so get rid of him NOW.

Wilwa -> Paranoia
I'm not going to vote for Inzil, because I have the feeling no one will go along with that. Ditto for Lottie and Shasta. So I'll go with my fourth option, though I wasn't originally planning on voting him, I'm willing to since I do find him suspicious and I'd rather not waste my vote toDay.

Rikae -> Izzy
#205. Yeah, Izzy's pretty suspicious, indeed. I don't see anyone more
suspicious around, so:

Paranoia -> Wilwa
#211 Should I get lynched in the interrim, I'm laying down my suspicions as Pitch, Wilwarin, and Zul as a possibility. I am uneasy about Izzy but I don't feel too bad about her at the moment. I believe Shasta, Lottie, and Rikae as town.

Winty -> Pitch
Most Suspicious:
Pitchwife, Wilwa, Noia, and Zil

Dun -> Wilwa
For previously stated reasons.

Loslote -> Wilwa
For, of course, previously stated reasons...

Izzy -> Rikae

You can deem it as OMGUS I suppose, though that isn't the reason. Yes we interpret what others do - but blatantly spinning it to fit your vote.. come on.


- I could not find a reason for why Paranoia voted for Wilwa. Unless I am remembering wrong, one or two people have said that he looks good because he voted for WIlwa. Yet.. where is the reason for it? I actually don't see him discuss her at all in regards to his suspicions towards her. The previous Day, he had no read on her. Was this an OMGUS vote for her Paranoia? Or were you simply preemptively voting for her, because she looked like she might be in trouble? In the post you voted for her, you listed as you were suspicious of Pitch more thanyou were of Wilwa. So why vote her over him?

-Winty's official vote was posts later after his list. If I remember correctly, he was having issues with the tagging. Again, where is the reason for your vote?

-Dun. What previously stated reasons on Wilwa? I looked through all of yours posts from yesterDay and couldn't find a single instance of where you described your suspicions upon Wilwa. #221 you said she was still 'tops on your list'. Am I missing a page or something?

X'd with every thing after #266

[wintywinty]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

That would have been a pretty bold move if Pitch was Wilwa's packmate, and it doesn't seem likely they would have taken such a risk. Wilwa knew she'd been under suspicion most of the Day, and she had to have known it was at least possible she would be lynched, so I find it hard to believe she would have been so quick to link herself with Pitch.

But if Wilwa is an experienced wolf, then she will know that everybody will discount that possibility, simply because it was "too simple", thereby allowing her to do it.

X'd with Pitchie