WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[Isabellkya]

Scratch my thought that the 3rd party and Metamorph were both after Loslote. She merely blocked the thirds attack.

known innocent known morph

Day 1:
Loslote -> Pitch
BG -> Loslote
Izzy -> BG
Shasta -> BG2
Paranoia -> BG3
Dun -> BG4
Wilwa -> Sally

Day2:
Pitch -> Paranoia
Wilwa -> Paranoia
Rikae -> Izzy
Paranoia -> Wilwa
Winty -> Pitch
Dun -> Wilwa2
Loslote -> Wilwa3
Izzy -> Rikae

Pitch -> Paranoia.
If you're wondering why, you haven't read my posts toDay. I'm not comfortable with voting him before he's had a chance to respond, but given our different time zones, it can't be helped. He looks like the most suspicious of the BG voters to me, and I'm not that confident about voting anybody else. And if he's indeed a morph, he's a dangerous one, so get rid of him NOW.

Wilwa -> Paranoia
I'm not going to vote for Inzil, because I have the feeling no one will go along with that. Ditto for Lottie and Shasta. So I'll go with my fourth option, though I wasn't originally planning on voting him, I'm willing to since I do find him suspicious and I'd rather not waste my vote toDay.

Rikae -> Izzy
#205. Yeah, Izzy's pretty suspicious, indeed. I don't see anyone more
suspicious around, so:

Paranoia -> Wilwa
#211 Should I get lynched in the interrim, I'm laying down my suspicions as Pitch, Wilwarin, and Zul as a possibility. I am uneasy about Izzy but I don't feel too bad about her at the moment. I believe Shasta, Lottie, and Rikae as town.

Winty -> Pitch
Most Suspicious:
Pitchwife, Wilwa, Noia, and Zil

Dun -> Wilwa
For previously stated reasons.

Loslote -> Wilwa
For, of course, previously stated reasons...

Izzy -> Rikae

You can deem it as OMGUS I suppose, though that isn't the reason. Yes we interpret what others do - but blatantly spinning it to fit your vote.. come on.


- I could not find a reason for why Paranoia voted for Wilwa. Unless I am remembering wrong, one or two people have said that he looks good because he voted for WIlwa. Yet.. where is the reason for it? I actually don't see him discuss her at all in regards to his suspicions towards her. The previous Day, he had no read on her. Was this an OMGUS vote for her Paranoia? Or were you simply preemptively voting for her, because she looked like she might be in trouble? In the post you voted for her, you listed as you were suspicious of Pitch more thanyou were of Wilwa. So why vote her over him?

-Winty's official vote was posts later after his list. If I remember correctly, he was having issues with the tagging. Again, where is the reason for your vote?

-Dun. What previously stated reasons on Wilwa? I looked through all of yours posts from yesterDay and couldn't find a single instance of where you described your suspicions upon Wilwa. #221 you said she was still 'tops on your list'. Am I missing a page or something?

X'd with every thing after #266

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Pitch -

#18 - Banter. Asks Eomer what's suspicious about BG.

#22 - Banter. Laments the fact that the Assassin can't reveal and act as a pseudoSeer. Asks Eomer if he's just stirring the pot.

#26 - Tries to turn discussion away from the rules.

#28 - Disagrees with Rikae about the effectiveness of a revealed Hunter.

#39 - IC flattery of Inzil that I mentioned earlier, which fits my current working theory of Inziltraitor and Pitchmorph. Also flips a bit on his thoughts on discussing game mechanics in response to Lottie's suspicion of Wilwa...

Originally Posted by Pitch

That's the problem with discussing game mechanics: it can be useful, giving people something to talk about on Day 1, and sometimes is indeed necessary, but it's also something to hide behind if you're trying to look helpful but are reluctant to actually suspect somebody.
So much in general. As for wilwa, don't know... Though it seems to me that a Morph has more reason to be happy about the Agents' deep conditioning than anybody else. I'd like to see what she's got to say when she's back, if I manage to stay awake that long.

Now, this could be an honest suspicion of Wilwa, but I think it's too vague for that. It looks more like preparatory morph-on-morph suspicion - very light, but something to be pointed to once the morph in question is revealed.

#40 - Asks BG what she has to say about Eomer's suspicion of her.

#42 - Numbered points in response to BG. This post seems almost naggy, and kind of nitpicky. Now, granted, several people (myself included) began pressing BG later in the day (about her list), but this is earlier in the day, and looks sort of like a preparatory witch-hunt. The question is, would a Pitchmorph be this obvious?

#54 - Responses to Eomer. Ends up deciding not to vote him. Mentions that BG was a "loudmouth wolf[/b] in the previous game.

#55 - Notes that Eomer's vote isn't highlighted.

#158 - Analyzes the BG wagon (or at least relates it). Here's the bit I find fishy.

Originally Posted by Pitch

About that Seer-wagon: having read the last game, I see how her behaviour could have been seen as repeating her wolvish preincarnation, and honestly I'm not sure how I would have reacted to it myself if I'd been around to vote, but I find it noteworthy how everybody (that is, Izzy, Shasta, Noia and Zil) jumped on her blunder like wolves on a tasty bit of lynch-meat, without even considering the possibility that she'd just made a noobish mistake.

And I find it noteworthy that you immediately jumped on the four people in that wagon hardcore. Lots of lynch-fodder in a group of four, surely one will take, right? Especially since you badgered her just as much previously, while you were still around.

#159 - Analyzes the other votes of the day. States what he calls "obvious" -

Originally Posted by Pitch

With hindsight, obviously a morphish camouflage manœuver.

If I remember correctly, Sally's done the same thing when innocent if she doesn't have time to participate day one, so calling it an "obvious camouflage maneuver" seems a bit overly-eager. Also builds on his suspicion of Wilwa based on her vote for Sally. Apparently everyone who's still alive who voted is suspicious, now, save Lottie (who voted for Pitch himself!)

#162 - Analyzes Eomer and his death. Suggests that he was killed because he had another Morph among his top suspects, or that he appeared Gifted (although this seemed to be an afterthought). Then says it would have made sense for Lottie and/or Wilwa to have killed Eomer to frame said top suspects. Then says it could have even been both.

#165 - Responds to Izzy, but finds the fact that she voted BG so quickly suspicious. Doesn't think we should concentrate on the BG voters to the exclusion of all else, but doesn't think we should ignore them (no one really was, at this point).

#166 - More "feelgoodery" in response to Inzil.

#168 - Details his thoughts on Noia. This bit right here is interesting...

Originally Posted by Pitch

All in all, he's a hard one. Hands-on approach and some good points, but telling Eomer not to make unreasoned accusations while doing it himself? His vote on BG looks the most well-reasoned of the four, but I gather he's an experienced player, if new to the Fleet, and therefore perfectly capable of making a good-looking case against an innocent if he's a morph.

Now, I believe that the word "unreasoned" refers to Noia's IC "suspicion" of Rikae, but as that was IC it's pretty safely disregarded, especially since Noia later said he considered Rikae innocent. So immediately calling his vote for BG "well-reasoned" right after he suspects him for being "unreasoned" comes out looking odd.

#171 - Details his thoughts on me. I've responded to most of this already, but it's worth noting that Pitch also takes the opportunity to plug his wilwa-suspicion here. There are several things in this post, as well, that make me think that this was preparatory to becoming an actual case on me, but was later aborted. I could, however, just have a tremendous ego.

#172 - Asks if Mira was modfired.

#173 - Details his thoughts on Lottie, Winty, Zil, Rikae, and Izzy. Trusts Lottie, sees nothing morphish about Winty, trusts Zil (of course), sees nothing morphish about Rikae, and suspects Izzy.

#178 - Considers the most likely morphs to be Wilwa, Noia, me, and Izzy. Is set on Wilwa being a morph, quite firmly so. Starts pondering if Wilwa might be the Traitor instead.

#187 - Mr. Agreeable rears his head again. Thinks I look better after my responses to his earlier post.

#190 - Two things interesting here.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So what are you going to do? Just ignore it all for fear of exposing the Seer, at a time when there was nothing else of any note happening? Or question player 1, hoping to get a better read on them?

Well, given that it was Eomer... Seriously, though, given that you put EomerSeer in your list of scenarios, the thought had to have crossed your mind. The fact that there was "nothing else going on" doesn't excuse the fact that you could have outed the Seer there. That's all I'm saying.

Also...

Originally Posted by Pitch

Nah, sorry, that seems to have been constructed with hindsight. Don't buy it.

No, you didn't. I've noted you haven't used that excuse, I'll hand you that.

Hmmm. This post of Izzy's has some marks of an exasperated innocent. I'm inclined to move her to the lower end of my suspicion list, along with Shasta. (Zil is already there)

Now, hold on. Just three lines above, you said you didn't buy Izzy's explanation of her thoughts on BG, but you immediately turn around and label her "exasperated innocent"? There's something off there.

#191 - Responds to Inzil's explanation of the flattery earlier. Also mentions that a Pitchmorph and a Zilmorph working together would look like Lottie's game (because playstyles never, ever change, right?) Also, starts trying to alleviate suspicion on Wilwa - this could be a Pitchmorph realizing that his morph-on-morphery has worked a little too well and trying to do damage control.

#193 - Votes for Paranoia. Now there's a lot wrong with this. Rikae's gone through some of it, but I'd like to add that earlier on in the day Noia was apparently the least suspicious of the [b]BG]/b] voters, according to Pitch.

#252 - Pops in to read the narration.

#258 - A long post that basically comes down to "Oops." Pitch analyzes his own reasons for voting Paranoia yesterday and finds them to be not as great as he'd originally thought they were.

#259 - Notes that he wouldn't be daft enough to leave a clear trail to himself as a morph with the kills. Then invalidates his post completely by noting that he used a defense that's not a defense at all.

#266 - An extension of #259, basically, combined with an "Aw, shucks, they done fooled ol' Pitch again" vibe. Not buying it.

Conclusion - After going through Pitch's posts individually I'm really thinking he's our last Morph.

Also, something we're forgetting - a werebear tends to act exactly like an innocent would in any given situation, because they have no ties to anyone. That's what makes them so hard to catch. "Clearing" someone because of how they interacted with Wilwa, for instance, doesn't "clear" them at all.

That took forever.

[wintywinty]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

-Winty's official vote was posts later after his list. If I remember correctly, he was having issues with the tagging. Again, where is the reason for your vote?

Bottom of Page 4

X'd with Shasta

[Pitchwife]

Shasta - impressive case. Very impressive. So impressive that I'm almost convinced myself. What really sucks about it is that I think you're doing this with the best intentions, and I've given you all the fuel for it, and none of us is going to find the true morph like that.
Right now I'm seriously tempted to Nilp myself and help you lynch me (I'm sure winty will be glad to assist), just so that is cleared up and you can move on. Only it's not the best option with two killers still running loose toMorrow.
And now I'm thinking in circles and cirles and circles, and have no clue what I can possibly say that won't make everything worse, and no idea whom to vote in good conscience.

Bah.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Dun. What previously stated reasons on Wilwa? I looked through all of yours posts from yesterDay and couldn't find a single instance of where you described your suspicions upon Wilwa. #221 you said she was still 'tops on your list'. Am I missing a page or something?

See here, here, and here.

No, I didn't come out and say "I think Wilwa is a Metamorph". However, she was the only one I'd really suspected all day, so I didn't think I needed to spell it out.

x/d with all since Izzy's last.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh Moddess, dear, am I allowed to tease them? Just a little? Just to make them come out of hiding, of course, so they'll vote and discuss and such. Please?

*dashes back into the shadows before the sun burnssssss her skinsssssss*

[Isabellkya]

Winty. Have you thought about the possibility that both Eomer and Loslote were killed because they gave off Gifted vibes?

Shasta.

"OMGUS" (translated as "Oh my gosh, you suck" and is commonly used to denote a vote for personal reasons rather than game-related ones... i.e. revenge votes..

Is this your definition of OMGUS? If it is, then you are slightly off. OMGUS votes are game related, and are chiefly meant as person B voting for person A; solely because person A voted for person B. That is how the entire 'phenomenon' began in the first place.

In regards to Paranoia attempting to butter us up. He would more than likely kill the both of us off first.

Your entire analysis on Paranoia looks more like you are trying to fit what he has said/done to fit your WereBorg theory. As opposed to reaching that conclusion after you analyzed him.

You seem to be confident that what powers the WereBorg may or may not have, are more powerful than what the Morphs have. Is there anything to back this up? Or pure speculation?
Is there also some clear statement that the Assassin can not do anything to the WereBorg? Or more speculation?

Have you factored in the possibility that the Assassin perishes?
"plus the Morph's only got their kill left"
Did the morphs have something more than a Night kill?


Dun.
"Dun. If Wilwa and I were morphmates. Why throw my vote away on Rikae? Why not 'seize opportunity and find a plausible reason to vote for someone other than Wilwa', whom would keep her away from the noose? Some one like.. Paranoia for instance. I was the last vote, why not try and save her?"

I copy/pasted my own for your benefit. Seems you missed it somehow. Care to answer?


Shasta. Not even going to give Paranoia a chance to respond? Or.. anyone else really for that matter? You can not fit under timezone differences; because I believe you and Paranoia are in the same one...

Paranoia. Pitch apparently is unconcerned with his survival. I call bluff tactic. Appeal to emotion?

Shasta. Are you saying his past game defense is not helping, because of what happened in the past games? Or because meta is not so ehm relevant? The inner judge in me would say - you opened that door, first.

I rather dislike this current position we are in.

Last two votes.. myself and Dun?. I was planning on voting for Dun. plgh.

X'd with Dun.

[Isabellkya]

Paranoia, Dun, and myself left to vote. Plgh more!

[Isabellkya]

What do people think of Shasta?

I may be incorrect, but he seems to of gone largely unnoticed. Winty to an extent himself.

[Rikae]

I have no arguments for or against Shasta, basically, except thinking he was a bit quick to push the Bearanoia lynch, though I do see it as a decent plan myself (Izzy, you seem to be missing the point that the assassin cannot kill the bear - from the admin thread: "Armed with a gun that shoots darts lethal to the Metamorph nervous system, the assassin may pick one target every Night." The bear is not a metamorph).

Wintywinty did say a few things I found innocentish, which caused me to move him further to the "innocentish" side and which I than forgot. Let me see...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Izzy

Is this your definition of OMGUS? If it is, then you are slightly off. OMGUS votes are game related, and are chiefly meant as person B voting for person A; solely because person A voted for person B. That is how the entire 'phenomenon' began in the first place.

Exactly. Revenge-votes. I don't consider them game related. Rather than having any game-related reason behind them, they're just "OMG you suck!" and revenge-voting.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Is this your definition of OMGUS? If it is, then you are slightly off. OMGUS votes are game related, and are chiefly meant as person B voting for person A; solely because person A voted for person B. That is how the entire 'phenomenon' began in the first place.

Explain yourself. I haven't seen anyone who looks as much like the Bear as Paranoia does, so I analyzed him with the way one catches a bear in mind, and that's what I found.

Originally Posted by Izzy

You seem to be confident that what powers the WereBorg may or may not have, are more powerful than what the Morphs have. Is there anything to back this up? Or pure speculation?
Is there also some clear statement that the Assassin can not do anything to the WereBorg? Or more speculation?

Yes, the first is speculation. But it's well-founded speculation. The Bear's game is over at any time if chosen randomly by the Morph's for a kill, or if bandwagoned on while unable to post, or any number of unfair reasons that have nothing to do with their gameplay, and that's entirely unfair to the player, so why wouldn't the Bear have some kind of advantage. The Morphs have numbers - what might the Bear have to compensate? They have to have some shot at winning. The second question is based on the wording of the Assassin role, which makes no mention of the Bear role at all, so I don't think it affects the Bear role in any way.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Have you factored in the possibility that the Assassin perishes?
"plus the Morph's only got their kill left"
Did the morphs have something more than a Night kill?

No, I haven't, other than to lump it in with the "we'd have to be extremely unlucky". And I don't believe so - at least, it wasn't in the description of the role given to us in the Admin thread. The Morphs only have a nightkill.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Shasta. Not even going to give Paranoia a chance to respond? Or.. anyone else really for that matter? You can not fit under timezone differences; because I believe you and Paranoia are in the same one...

When did I claim timezone differences? I voted for two reasons - one, because I suspect Paranoia of being the bear, and two - to force Pitchmorph to vote Paranoia before leaving for the night. I figured he'd have to vote for self-preservation, and gave him a way to do so while getting another vote for someone I find suspicious.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Shasta. Are you saying his past game defense is not helping, because of what happened in the past games? Or because meta is not so ehm relevant? The inner judge in me would say - you opened that door, first.

Would it? Care to explain how? I said it wasn't helping because past games don't matter, they're completely metagame.

Originally Posted by Inzil

To be honest, I hadn't given much thought to the space-bear or whatever it may be. Sorry. I got cought up looking for the Metamorph. I still don't think it's likely to be Pitch.

Don't think Pitch is likely to be the Morph? Or the Bear? And if you're thinking of voting Paranoia for possible bear-ship, thinking of voting me for voting Paranoia for possible bear-ship is entirely double-standard-worthy, and makes me even more sure that you're the Traitor trying to save Pitch.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

If Wilwa and I were morphmates. Why throw my vote away on Rikae? Why not 'seize opportunity and find a plausible reason to vote for someone other than Wilwa', whom would keep her away from the noose? Some one like.. Paranoia for instance. I was the last vote, why not try and save her?"

Very quickly: perhaps you didn't think there was time to fabricate a sufficently innocent looking case against Paraand opted for the safer option of a revenge-vote.

[Rikae]

Alas, a list.

Inziladun – Ordo or cobbler
Paranoia – Wereborg.
Pitchwife –Metamorph suspect #1
Isabellkya –Ordo or cobbler
Shasta –Metamorph suspect #2
wintywinty – Ordo
Rikae – Good and dead.Goodbye, cruel world! I hope you all get eaten by rats... er, I mean, go village! Rah rah rah!

[Rikae]

Mm... to clarify list further:

Most nonmorphish:
Rikae
Izzy

Fairly nonmorphish:
Inzil
wintywinty

Morphiest:
Paranoia
Pitchwife
Shasta

[Rikae]

I may not get a chance to post again toDay, and at this point I still find

++Pitch

the most suspicious.

If Pitch isn't, I really don't know who else even could be the final morph. Might as well go by reverse alphabetical order, it's as good as anything. Too many submarinish players on this ship!
Promised discussion Paranoia and werebearery will have to wait until another time (or not, if I don't survive toNight, and I don't really expect to). A lot of that is based on a feeling/werebear experience, anyway. I'm confident, at this point, that Izzy is not the final morph, at any rate.

[satansaloser2005]

Huzzah!


Rikae-->Pitch

[satansaloser2005]

Rikae-->Pitch
Shasta-->Paranoia

[satansaloser2005]

Rikae-->Pitch
Shasta-->Paranoia
Winty-->Pitch (2)
Pitch-->Paranoia (2)



Well that's interesting....

[Rikae]

Hm... now, actually, I quite like Shasta's plan, especially since if we can assume the assassin will go for Pitch toNight, a living Pitch is an innocent Pitch toMorrow. If the morph kills the assassin and xe left a decent trail, there will be two essentially "known non-morphs" among the remaining players.

Edit: X'd with Paranoia

[wintywinty]

I have prior engagements that will hold me until the DL, so I must vote now.

Because of reasons previously stated:

++Pitch