WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[the phantom]

First, Nog is flailing again.

Lottie and Nerwen already pointed out many problems with his arguments, and as far as his vote is concerned... Sorry, but after the events of Day 2, Lottie is about as innocent a person as we have around here. (And no, I'm not going to explain that remark, so don't ask. If you view me as innocent then just take that one on faith.)

Mac, in answer to you- due to the way this village is set up (it's very unique with all the gifted roles and the like), I am playing in a much different mode, particularly early on. Now that we're three days into the game I imagine I'll normalize a bit (as far as suspecting people), but my first two days was primarily trying to identify gifteds I could work with and not lynch them rather than looking so much for suspects, especially with all the people who could swap affiliations. Frankly the village was too large and complex, and I wanted to wait until we were at a more managable number to really roll my sleeves up. And hey- I like where we stand, and I feel I have a bead on a few roles.

Originally Posted by Mac

Replying to my question, he pulls Nienna out of his hat and is willing to shoot in the dark with Lottie.

Nienna wasn't completely out of a hat. Out of the low posters (Kath, Meeper, Sally, and Folwren) she was the one I had the least feel for (I had said specifically earlier that I liked Folwren and Meeper), and I was keen to take a shot at a submarine since I figured I might not get a feel for them at any point anyway. And as far as Lottie goes, I only was willing to take a shot at her until she showed up, at which point her defense completely took her off the table so far as I was concerned.

And your quotes of me where I'm letting you take the lead and I'm "keeping clean"- instead read them as me trying to say, "Hey, Mac, seriously, I'm on board with you. I trust you. Make the call." Not to mention that doing such a thing isn't "keeping clean" at all, but quite clearly letting someone else take the risk. Honestly, who exactly is going to be fooled by such completely obvious posturing?

And the reason there was no mention of Nog any more was because you said you wanted to give him another day! Once you said that I left him alone so far as I remember. Fact is I thought you were innocent and also thought I had your possible role narrowed quite far down, and was attempting to come on board with you. And no, I'm not putting you at increased risk by saying that, as everyone is gifted at this point.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

This looks like a ploy to get two innocents lynched. You yourself kept saying over and over you thought Eönwë was innocent. Yet you were ok with the Hunter killing him?

That was an illogical plan that came to me as I was typing. It wasn't a ploy. It would've been a ploy if I pushed for it. In the end I negate it. With what u pointed out I would've negate it after that too. I don't want to lynch innocents.

I am beginning to wonder about Rikae's vote. I know I made a comment about it, but the first sentence was all said in fun...nothing was meant by it. My second line was about the fact that I wasn't sure who guilty at the time. Even then I didn't deem it appropriate to throw away my vote. I would take a look at her, but I have to be at work. If no one else does before I get back then I will.

[satansaloser2005]

I think the only one who wants to take a look at Rikae is Mac.


In seriousness now, I think Tum's being a squirm nugget. (Yes, nuget. Shut up.) She seems very frustrated misunderstood new kid but it's not frustrated misunderstood innocent new kid. Her comments on Steve (despite her attempt to clean them up) and her general lack of proper....anything?....make me think that she is in fact a wolf (or evil on some level, or just plain not out for village victory like I am, and I don't like people who disagree with me ).


I still think my Hestia plan is valid. Not only do I think it would be nice to know that Hestia is te false seer (or the real one, if that's the case), I also think Nog's guilty. Yeah, I'm sorry, I didn't make that very clear in my original Nog plan post, but he's either unable to help the village -not his fault, but dying and revealing information could help us out considerably- or he doesn't want to help the village. Either way, let's get rid of him and make him as useful as possible.

[Rikae]

autume, if you want to try to get me lynched, that's all well and good, but can I just ask that you don't use chatspeak while doing so? That would really be adding insult to injury.

EDIT: X'd with Sally - more insults, hey.

[the phantom]

lol, Rikae, r u serius?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by the phantom

lol, Rikae, r u serius?

Glirdan, I would like to use my assassination power on Phantom. What? I don't have any? Bah.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

EDIT: X'd with Sally - more insults, hey.

That wasn't meant in a rude way. That was meant in a way I can't put on the Downs. See the dude? He's....well he's very....never mind, you get it.


EDIT: x'd with Phantom. I will smite thee with an epic smite (if I had such skills)!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Sally, underlining mine

I still think my Hestia plan is valid. Not only do I think it would be nice to know that Hestia is te false seer (or the real one, if that's the case), I also think Nog's guilty. Yeah, I'm sorry, I didn't make that very clear in my original Nog plan post, but he's either unable to help the village -not his fault, but dying and revealing information could help us out considerably- or he doesn't want to help the village. Either way, let's get rid of him and make him as useful as possible.

Hmm. While I'm not sure about Nog myself and while I think his death would shed some light on other things, I distrust Sally's idea of offhandedly killing him while he's not properly present. Like, not the idea itself so much, but the way she talks about it. Especially in the underlined part she sounds not only opportunistic but downright bloodthirsty. It's rather like she saw a great opportunity to get rid of Nog (ie. he's unable to put up a huge self-defense show) and decided to use it seemingly for common good. Now I believe an innocent Sally could certainly come up with something of that kind, but I'm not sure she'd introduce her idea quite like that.


EDIT: x-ed with Rikae, Nerwen, Sally and Rikae

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Hmm. While I'm not sure about Nog myself and while I think his death would shed some light on other things, I distrust Sally's idea of offhandedly killing him while he's not properly present. Like, not the idea itself so much, but the way she talks about it. Especially in the underlined part she sounds not only opportunistic but downright bloodthirsty. It's rather like she saw a great opportunity to get rid of Nog (ie. he's unable to put up a huge self-defense show) and decided to use it seemingly for common good. Now I believe an innocent Sally could certainly come up with something of that kind, but I'm not sure she'd introduce her idea quite like that.


EDIT: x-ed with Rikae, Nerwen, Sally and Rikae

Greenie, I think he's guilty anyway (or at least has a good possibility of being so). I also don't plan to act without him being here. Hestia could dream him toNight and toMorrow we could enact the plan if everyone likes. I'm not sneak attacking him.

[Nienna]

Hey all, I'm around. I should be here now until Deadline if I must (though my sleeping habits would not approve). I agree that Hestia should only come out if she's comfortable with that. Sally's plan seems like that of an innocent. I'm not really worried about her at all.

I have some time so I think I'll do a few analysis(es?) of people. I'll probably pick a heavy poster and a light poster to begin with just because these things take me forever. Lets say Rikae and Zil.

I'll also try and keep up with what is being currently posted and give you my thoughts.

[the phantom]

I see no reason to do a special Seer-test plan. Remember, the Seer is not just being told innocence/guilt, but the actual role! It won't take long at all for the Seer to figure out if the dreams are right, and there's no reason to set up a special kill for it, especially if you believe that you are purposefully letting someone furry live an extra day in order to have a test subject. Plus, the business that it wouldn't be proper to off him because he's gone? If you think about it, your plan is much more cruel, as you're basically deciding, "We're going to wait for Nog to come back and then lynch him. That way he has all day to experience the frustration as he kicks and thrashes in vain."

[A Little Green]

I went through Lalaith's posts. I'm not going to quote or even mention them all here, and most of my quotes are not entire posts - I'm just commenting on stuff that seemed noteworthy in one way or another. I picked her because I had no opinion whatsoever on her and don't believe many others do, either. Besides, her avatar is so cute that I keep forgetting that she can be a wolf just as well as anybody else.

Day 1

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Some interesting discussions here - I think the stuff about how to deal with the true/false seers is very helpful. Lots of people have actually been genuinely helpful today, and normally I go with that as a sign of innocence...unfortunately, I think that in this game, everyone, guilties and innocents alike, is trying to make sense of things so that is no longer a helpful guideline on how to vote.

Well, I am, like a few others here, forced to vote early due to European timezones. It's a baffling choice even by first day standards, and all I've got to go on is a hunch that the following vote could throw up something useful:
++BOROMIR

The fourth vote of the Day, and the only one for Boro. As she voted so early it's hard to condemn the vote this way or that. (Having voted even earlier on Day 1, I can totally relate to the lack of proper material.) I disagree with her on helpfulness=innocence, but that has nothing to do with her innocence/guilt so I won't dwell on that. Moving on...

Day 2

Interesting ideas about Boro. I missed the Mira/Keeper comment that phantom picked up on, it's ambiguous to say the least. As for my thoughts - reading over the thread yesterday, I thought I had picked up on Hunter hints from Boro.

In hindsight, it is of course good Seer tactics to pretend to be a Hunter. But would any of the above-named, if indeed they were wolves, seemingly being threatened, have risked a Boro kill?

A good point about possible Hunter hints from Boro, and unless I'm mistaken she was the first to bring that up.

Greenie, like you I was unimpressed by the BG voters - to me she was newbie-ish, not wolf-ish - but but there were seven of them and they can't all be wolves. It was an easy first-day option for innocents and wolves alike, I guess. The Eonwe bandwaggon I have more sympathy with, as there was some reasoning behind it.

For some reason this made me think of a really smooth wolf, disagreeing with the bandwagon but not too aggressively (so as not to rub anyone the wrong way). Hmm. Really I might be just paranoid though, there's nothing legitimately wrong with the quote.

Reading through the thread, I am finding Mac, Wilwa, Loslote and Nogrod (before it got too late, that is...!) looking helpful.
I am finding Keeper/Mira, Sally and autume rather strange.

Apart from all the Boro stuff, this is the first time she posts opinions on other players.

Oh, I just wanted to remind everyone, in case they had forgotten, that today the Mythomane comes into play. Potentially. Although given the number of gifteds in this game, the chance of him/her picking something that makes a difference is pretty high.

This makes me think better of her, because I'm not convinced a wolf would want to draw attention to the Mytho. If the Mytho picks a wolf, the pack certainly doesn't want the village to be reminded of that any more than is unavoidable; and if s/he picks a Gifted, I don't see a wolf wanting to parade that too much, either.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Sally, I know what you mean about feeling useless though. You actually worry me less today than you did yesterday.

Who has posted so far today? It seems like the focus has been on just a handful of players....it feels like a smaller village than it should be.

Also, the MM. I don't want to sound like I've got a bee in my bonnet but you do all realise there is just under a one in 4.5 chance that we now have five wolves?

She keeps making sense and being nice. The last paragraph, about the Mytho, is something that left me a bit baffled. There was some confusion I believe about when the Mytho changes roles, but it didn't happen until the next Night. So I'm thinking - who, in the village, is most likely to dwell on the Mytho turning into a wolf? (Answer: the wolves.) A Lalwolf might have paid a lot of thought to the Mytho turning to a wolf (counting the probability and all such) and then thinking like "well, why not post it?" I'm not sure I'm making sense now though.

A lot of rowing going on, some of which is kind of hard to follow.
Well, I need to make up my mind soon as it is bedtime over here.
So first,....Our Big Beasts. I am actually not inclined to vote for any of these at present. Probably they are just fighting for the hell of it and most of them innocent anyway. Also I believe that the wolves and gifteds will sort out the high profile players – they will surely kill/dream of them at night leaving us with fewer suspects. My thoughts on them anyway…
Rikae…she does love a scrap, guilty or innocent she will never let things lie. I have never been able to tell the difference between a good or bad Rikae and this time is no different.
Nog – lots of talk and noise. Quite a lot of it makes sense but some of it is a bit more bonkers than usual. Why? Could be any number of reasons.
Phantom – definitely touchier than usual but he hasn’t played for a long time.

Next – some of the others who are coming under suspicion/attracting attention today
Mac – now I may be rusty but I don’t get where all this Mac suspicion is coming from. It could be because I was thinking along the same lines about Boro as he was, but he seems quite sensible to me.
Eonwe – now there is more cause for concern here. I agree Boro’s words are open to interpretation. But Eonwe also did something rather unhelpful today which might just have been careless but still…with not much to go on I know but with an early vote needed from me, he is a likely candidate.
Tum – Again, someone who may get my vote. Not happy about her(?) at all. Yesterday she seemed ‘off’, she was arguably the dodgiest of the BG votes and Zil’s case against her today was pretty good.
Nerwen – The Hades thing – well, maybe. If she’s Hades herself, she’s very bold. If she’s Persephone, all she would have needed to do is watch and read, so there would have been no need for such rashness. She’s definitely active and ready to get involved in all the rows.
And the rest…
Nienna – Now I didn’t much like her post today. She covered just a few players, only to say that she didn’t have a feel for half of them. Seemed overly desultory and posting-for-the-sake-of-it, although she might have just been RL busy.
Mira/Keeper – the whole Boro interchange yesterday was weird and I am not happy about her in general.
Shasta – comes, makes a few reasonably sensible statements and goes off again.
Folwren, see above, much like Shasta. Could be anything. I know some of you have said the same about me so it’s only fair to reserve judgment.
Lottie – I don’t know, I thought she seemed thoughtful yesterday but odd today. Reserving judgment
Zil – I liked the case he made against Tum, and he seemed to be unhappy about Nienna’s post as was I. as with Mac, I tend to trust those who seem to be thinking the way I do, so…
Sally – like I said, I thought she was acting oddly yesterday but I feel better about her today
Greenie – active, thoughtful and clearly trying to be fair – so I trust her for now
Wilwa – not seen her around as much today but seemed helpful yesterday so I’m quite at ease with her
Kath – her voice was ever soft, gentle and low, an excellent thing in woman, I suppose, but not necessarily during WW. Come on girl, check in and lets hear what you’ve got to say…

So, if I may over-simplify a bit, she's saying approximately the following:
Positive: Mac, Inzil, Sally (was suspicious before but better now), Greenie, Wilwa
Negative: Eonwe, autume, Nienna, Mira
Has no clear opinion on the alignment of: Rikae, Nog, Phantom, Nerwen, Shasta, Folwren, Lottie, Kath

Oh curse these early votes. So difficult to decide.
Well as things stand it is between Eonwe and autume for me. Now Tum hasn't even been on today to defend herself, so it seems harsh to vote for her...I'm going to go for Eonwe. As I said before, there's a reasonable Boro-based case against him and the something else too.

++ Eonwe

And here is her Day 2 vote. I'm debating now if it's the genuine tone or the plain easiness of the vote that I should pay more attention to. Her reference to "something else" (or " But Eonwe also did something rather unhelpful today which might just have been careless but still…" in her list post) makes me think slightly better of her, as I can't see what a wolf would gain in saying that, or how a wolf would come up with such in the first place.

Day 3

Eonwe – well, he was telling the truth after all, he was the Ord. I think the most likely thing is that Boro was a false seer and dreamt of Eonwe as a wolf. It occurred to me today that the -4 might have been a reference to four wolves. If this is the case then it’s very good news for us because we would now have two True Seers rather than two False.

My other main voting possibility of yesterday - Tum – looking over Loslote’s analysis and my own reading of her posts, she seems to be playing the ingénue. Well it might be playing - or it might be for real. Zil’s analysis of her yesterDay was more damning that Los’ analysis today (which made her look more like a for-real ingenue.) And on the subject of Los - I agree with Nog, why post such a long analysis without drawing any concrete conclusions? It looks a bit dodgy to me.
One thing that did play well with me, was Tum’s “here I am, what do you want to know” late last Day. It seemed a fairly candid, innocentish thing to do.
I think I am fairly sure about one thing - Tum, Mac and Los are unlikely to be wolves together.
And further development on this theme - both Mac and Nogs seem to have stopped going for each other and both turned their sights on Lottie. I need to look at her more closely myself, I don’t think we’ve ever played together so I don’t have a real feel for her at all.

Then, one of the major post-bedtime events of yesterday was this last minute rallying of votes for someone other than Eonwe. Now I can see the purpose of doing that but that purpose is rather defeated if the voting is orchestrated in the way Mac seemed to be doing. And the talk of Nienna as “easy victim” needs explaining.

Nogrod, lots of your reasoning this morning seems sensible to me (result of a good night’s sleep?) but this I would query quite strenuously:

Actually , unless I have really misunderstood your point, it is not general knowledge that any of them were innocents except Eonwe. How do YOU know? It is a shame that you're not around to answer this...

Her only post this far toDay. She makes some shrewd points that are made from a very innocentish point of view. Just stuff that I'm not sure a wolf would have thought of.

So that was it. Conclusions? I'm fairly okay with Lal for now, though I haven't entirely abandoned the possibility of her being a very smooth wolf, either. The thing is, my logic can find nothing wrong with her. The Mytho thing was pretty much the only even half-legitimate point that could be made against her from what I read - and even that is rather questionable. Mostly the bad feelings I got from her posts were due to her being too understanding and nice and not rubbing anyone the wrong way, but as far as I recall she's always nice, so that's hardly a legitimate argument, either. Both her votes were relatively easy (the second one especially), but an early vote almost always is. She's generally consistent and sharp and makes points from an innocent viewpoint. So, in short - if she's a wolf, I'm almost tempted to say she deserves to win.


EDIT: x-ed with Nienna, Phantom and Lalaith herself

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Sally

I still think my Hestia plan is valid. Not only do I think it would be nice to know that Hestia is te false seer (or the real one, if that's the case), I also think Nog's guilty.

But Sally, if we lose Hestia in the process, that doesn't do us a lot of good, does it? Let's say Hestia's a true seer, and Nog is a wolf - best case scenario. He dies, and if he has a lover, said lover is on the side of the village with special powers. Still, as soon as the remaining wolves have a chance, they'll take her out. But what if he's a wolf's lover? By lynching him we'd give special powers to a wolf, who would certainly use them to take out Hestia, right? And by not lynching him, we wouldn't learn anything.
And if Nog is an innocent, we've flushed out one of our seers for nothing. Now, if Hestia got her powers by picking the remaining seer and we find she's the genuine article, we then know we have another seer we can trust anyway, but if she got them by picking Boro, we'll have flushed out our ONLY TRUE seer. Soo... I think Hestia should only reveal, if she does want to do that, if she picked the other seer. If she picked Boro, she should keep quiet, as she may be too valuable to sacrifice. Just my two cents.