Reason Behind The Decline Of Arnor And The Rise Of Gondor.

[Snowdog]

Great essay Arathul! Too bad the only reply so far was crap.

With the Northern Dunedain not intermingling with the locals of lesser blood, the question of numbers of men and women comes into play. How many were there at say, the height of Arnor in Elendil's day? Since its given that there was a gradual diminishing in Arnor, from internal dissension and outside forces to the point that the ruling seat was moved from the lake-shore city of Annuminas to the fortress city of Fornost, and the kingdom of Arnor was divided into three in the year 863 of the 3rd Age, with Rhuadur to the east being probably the most mixed population with the hillmen. Cardolan was spread over the rollling southern lands to Tharbad, and was primarily Dunedain though they likely had dealings with the north reach of Dunland. Arthedain remained the strongest state and likely had the most Dunedain population. All three borders met at Amon Sul, or Weathertop, where one of the powerful Palantiri was ensconced.

The north did not have a strong race of men outside the Dunedain which to even really consider intermingling with. The Northmen of Rhovanion were a proud and fierce people in their own right, and probably the the strongest men friendly to the west without being directly from any of the three houses of the Edain. I have to agree that this intermingling in Gondor, despite causing the Kin-Strife, did lead to a strengthening of Gondor with greater numbers of population, and therefore, soldiers to hold the line on Mordor, at the cost of length of lifespan.

Great subject this! I need to finish my tale of the Kin Strife...

Just an informational edit here to inform everyone here that this essay was written by 'Thorin' on Minas Tirith in September 2003. I didn't say anything a few years back when I bumped this as I was hoping there would be more discussion on it. There was, which is a good thing. At the time I let Thorin know that I read and commented on his work he copy/pasted here, assuming that Arathul was his name on this board. It was not as he said he had never registered on Barrow Downs. Thorin was irritated a bit that his post was copy/pasted from another board, but chuffed that there was more discussion on the topic.

[Kuruharan]

While I don't necessarily disagree with your contention, I do think that was only one factor of many.

I think the most important reason for the decline of Arnor was its poor strategic situation. It was a large, flat and virtually indefensible country with a sparse population that was spread too thinly over its territory. I think it would have struggled mightily even without the external pressure of Angmar.

Gondor, by comparison, was more favorably located and more defensible, even in spite of its long stretches of coastland.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I think the most important reason for the decline of Arnor was its poor strategic situation. It was a large, flat and virtually indefensible country with a sparse population that was spread too thinly over its territory. I think it would have struggled mightily even without the external pressure of Angmar.

Without the Witch-king though, who would Arnor have "struggled mightily" against? Those hill-men in Rhudaur? I don't see them as any threat to Arnor without the WK.

And I think they could have mastered Angmar , or at least held out much longer than they did, without their infighting.

[Kuruharan]

The tendency to infight and localize is what they would and did struggle against.

A point validated by the fact that Arnor already had fragmented before the appearance of the Witch-king. Arnor broke up in 861. The Witch-king didn't appear until 1300.

Without the Witch-king perhaps the situation would have stabilized into three successor states, but Arnor as a whole was doomed from the beginning because of geography and demographics.

Makes one wonder if things up north were really so hunky-dory during the Fourth Age after all...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Makes one wonder if things up north were really so hunky-dory during the Fourth Age after all...

I'm not very optimistic about the restored North Kingdom.

Dúnedain of Gondor would have been needed to kick-start growth in Arnor, and Gondor itself was a shadow of its former population by the Fourth Age. I'd wonder how many Gondorians would actually have been willing to uproot themselves from the only life they'd ever known to go north and deal with the cold, snow, and a long-forsaken kingdom.

I think it's more likely the Men who ended up being the majority in Eriador were those with their origins in Bree or Dunland. I just can't see Arnor ever regaining its first-millenium Third Age glory, or even being on par with Fourth Age Gondor.

[Puddleglum]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm not very optimistic about the restored North Kingdom...

Perhaps not, but I think there are two factors that improve their chances.

First, there would now be a sense that they were one again and so be more able to share ideas, teaching, talents, etc. That had been largely lacking since the fall of Isuldur. They were no longer "The Two Kingdoms".

Related to that, while I agree few would want to "be" uprooted just to repopulate the north, it is entirely possible, that as the population grows in the south, more people will be attracted by the wide open lands available in the north - just as the American West was settled (tho without the dangers posed by American Indians). Which leads to the next factor ...

Second, With the fall of Sauron, the evil things that made the wild dangerous would be reduced and the population *COULD* again begin growing in the north (as well as in the south).

As Gandalf told Butterbur,

There will be comings and goings, and the evil things will be driven out of the wastelands. Indeed the waste in time will be waste no longer, and there will be people and fields where once there was wilderness.

Granted, that's an anticipation rather than a formal prophecy - but it does give a picture of the possibilities.

[Man-of-the-Wold]

The demographics of Eriador is of endless fascination, and in the earlier half of the Third Age, it probably had a more notable population base than we see in Frodo's time, but even that reflects somewhat recent declines in southeast Eriador and North-South interchange, with the ultimate end of Tharbad and displacement of people, as witnessed by the recent refugees in Bree. These I attribute to the policies of Saruman over a generation or so, in building up a sort of power base east and north of the Isen, bolstering the strength of the less civilized human elements, with feelers all the way to the Shire. A parallel being the hill-men of northeast Eriador, under the tutelage of Angmar, but ultimately wiped out with it.

Ultimately, the Kingdom of Arnor never enjoyed the population base, dynamics and resilience of Gondor, which had seemingly much heavier Numenorean settlement and denser indigenous peoples, so that from the beginning, it had the ability to support a number of cities and continuous areas of settlement, and to fight and grow. With these Southmen and later influxes of Northmen, the Dunedain of the South did intermingle, but reflective of Faramir's commentary, this was both inevitable and a blessing, however, mixed.

At some time or another Elves and Numenoreans can enjoy population spurts, such that by the WotR, mostly non-eldarin Elves are a rather dominant population group in Rhovanian. Ironically, long life seems sooner or later to work against sustained population growth, and in many ways, Tolkien's underlying and very Christian point is how the longer lifespans and ennobling of the Numenorean beyond the norm of men was a mistake, however, marvelous the achievements and potential for wisdom could be.

So, while intermingling is clearly portrayed as a saving grace for Gondor, I would not say that it is so in purely population terms. Human populations can bounce back from civil wars and such very easily if the conditions are right. What intermingling did for Gondor more than anything was to introduce fresh blood and clean out tendencies for decadence and arrogance.

In the North, the Dunedain may have represented a larger share of the population, but both they and the other men of the region were much smaller in number—say, less than one-tenth that of Gondor—especially after the War of the Last Alliance and the Disaster of the Gladden Fields.

Besides Breelanders and such, the only other people or allies that we know of were of Edainic, probably Beorian-related, decent. Of those remaining in Arthedain and Cardolan in the Third Age, I would submit that they did intermingle and were assimilated among the Dunedain of the North: although this evidently did not really include the royal line, which allowed for a truly remarkable person like Aragorn to arise.

But the people of Arnor in general were always simply just too thin on the ground to not decline in the face of Angmar and pestilence. Intermingling, had there been sufficient numbers with which to interbreed, might have helped, and early on, the Dunedain there were prone to the same excesses and self-inflicted sources of decline that occurred with the Kingdom of Gondor, but it was a ultimately a story of strategic vulnerabilities, bad fortune, and the numbers game working against Arnor.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The tendency to infight and localize is what they would and did struggle against.

That is, as I've also thought, the greatest factor to Arnor's decline and Gondor remaining relatively strong. Aside from the Witch-King doing lots of damage himself, and Gondor not having to deal with Sauron for thousands of years yet.

Once Arnor decided to divide politically, they were made weaker. It makes the successful "divide and conquer" strategy a lot easier for the Witch-King. If they could somehow unite forces against him, they may have been able to salvage some sort of a kingdom. But once splitting, and the infighting between Rhudaur and Cardolan over possession of certain lands, that spells disaster.

Now Gondor underwent similar infighting in the Kin-stife, and I also think it's shear size was an advantage. It was made weaker in the Kin-strife, but Gondor as a single politcal entity remained in tact. Castamir wanted all of Gondor, Eldacar said no. Civil war ensues, Gondor loses some of it's lands, but in the end this is how things in the world usually get decided. Gondor never broke apart and decided to divide up into separate kingdoms, they were just slightly weakened by losing mostly Umbar and creating future enemies.

Also, even after the end of Anarion's line in Gondor, this is where I give a lot of credit to Mardil and the following ruling Stewards. They maintained control and were accepted to rule in the King's place until the King returns. Having that type of political stability is priceless in keeping a strong, long-lasting kingdom.