Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[the phantom]

Well, guess what? I just missed the deadline.

[the phantom]

Well, if Kath indeed cannot be around at all to vote, I guess it wouldn't have done me any good to make it back in time for the deadline anyway, as she would've been the only person I could've made a Rep. Bleh. Whatever.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Zil, Greenie, Rune, and Nerwen are your Reps. Enjoy the power bestowed upon you by the masses.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Alas, the Curse strikes again.

Mira will probably not be posting any time soon, and since she's puking, I'm informing you that you'll be taking pity on her and not killing her toDay.

[the phantom]

REP VOTES ALL THREE DAYS:

Celuien--> Foley, (----), (----)
Foley--> Celuien, (----), Green
Green--> Nerwen, Steve, Inzil
Inzil--> Boro, Shasta, Green
Shasta--> Izzy, Nerwen, Nerwen
Nerwen--> Lommy, Shasta, (----)
Lommy--> Green, Nog, Nerwen
Steve--> Green, Legate, Rune
Rune--> Lommy, Steve, Kath
Legate--> Nerwen, Foley, Rune
Kath--> (----), (----), Inzil
Mira--> Phantom, (----), (----)
Phantom--> Celuien, Legate, (----)

MUTUAL VOTES:
Celuien & Foley (*)
Rune & Steve (*)
Green (*) & Steve
Green & Inzil (*)
Nerwen & Shasta (*)
Nerwen & Lommy (*)

We can only guess as to whether or not the Elves are concerned with direct voting ties like this. If they're looking to tie Orcs to them in case they're lynched, then the suspicious of the two votes will be the second one that links the pair (I marked the second player to vote with a star).

VOTING TRIANGLES:

Legate-->Rune-->Steve

A triangle, with Steve voting for both other members instead of one.

Lommy-->Green-->Nerwen

A triangle, with a double bond between Lommy-Nerwen.

VOTING TANGLES:

Green for Nerwen & Inzil, Inzil for Green & Shasta, Shasta for Nerwen, Nerwen for Shasta

So basically what we have there is one mutual pair (Green-Inzil) voting for another mutual pair (Nerwen-Shasta). Plus each mutual pair has a member with another mutual voter, Green-Steve and Lommy-Nerwen.

CONCLUSIONS:

Um....? Well, the obvious answer is that we have no idea what the Elves have decided to do, so who knows? But if we were to go with the simple idea that Elves want each other in power and wish to tie themselves to innocents, then you possibly have a Green-Inzil-Steve grouping trying to tie themselves to Shasta, Nerwen, Rune, and Legate?

Bleh, I'm too tired to think about this stuff. Too much to do and no sleep to fuel me. I'll come back after I get some work done.

[the phantom]

Okay, now that Sally is dead and all, it is time to go back to Day 1-

We have two choices here- assume there were NO Elves elected, or assume there was an Elf (or Elves) present in the voting. We know for a fact at this point that both of the candidates running against Lottie were innocent, and so the desires of the Elves would be quite clear on that first day (to vote or encourage a vote away from Lottie).

If the Elves were playing straight up, that would mean the following could be showing Elf colors-

Green- Voted Sally
Celuien- Voted Boro
Nerwen- Voted Sally & Boro
Shasta- Push Sally over Lottie

(And I see in my post above that Green, Nerwen, and Shasta are linked by Rep votes as well.)

I'm still not completely buying anyone who was pushing Sally over Lottie that first day. Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!! Obviously I couldn't say anything about it at the time, but it did really really annoy me that the thought didn't occur to more. People never vote completely and totally randomly. It is always based upon something. And so if someone comes on and votes before any posts have been made, the first conclusion my mind leaps to is that the person already has information!

Now, as the day went along naturally my knee-jerk reaction cooled, and I realized that her odds of being the Seer were still not terribly high given the size of the village, but still, it was a possibility that I could not discount, and she was certainly higher on the potential list than most. I mean, how big an idiot would I be if I let a Seer who had dreamed of me die? My talk of Boro being a safe candidate that day- I really did mean it. He was one person that I was pretty well certain was not the Seer, and that's the main reason I preferred his lynch. For me Day 1 wasn't about lynching an Elf so much as it was about not lynching the Seer. You know me- always fear the worst.

Now, as Day 2 rolled along I watched Sally carefully and was able to cross her off my potential Seer list, and so I wasn't so worried about her lynch after that (though I still thought her innocent). But yesterday aside, it still doesn't take away from what happened Day 1, and I can't help but wonder if someone who pushed or actually tried to lynch Sally over Lottie wasn't in fact quite aware that Lottie was the safer choice.

Of course I realize that this theory of mine has about zero chance of being acted upon considering two of the four Rep voters are among those I am accusing.

[Nerwen]

Firstly, apologies for the non-vote. I couldn't get online in time.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Lottie was actually talked into her early vote by me, where as Sally's came out of left field with no basis in anything, which of course caused me great alarm, as my number one fear was that Sally was the Seer and she was hiding it with silly randomness.

I mean, did no one else think that at all??!!

Thought it, rejected it. Sally's not an idiot.