Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Folwren]

Kath

In her post 460 where she analyzes a lot of people, I think she went to good lengths to figure each person out and her summaries make sense. In 461, she voiced her conclusions. Three of her four unknowns have been proven to be innocent. One of of her leaning towards guilty has been proven innocent, and Inzil is the second one. So far, she looks fine to me...

Problem...she voted for Inzil to be rep the next day....she says he is posting well... on the otherhand, I know that, being a giftedless innocent, one's mind can easily be changed from thinking someone guilty to thinking they're innocent and vice-versa, so maybe it's not a problem.

I'm curious about if she can pinpoint her gut feeling about Rune. Kath? If you're around will you explain?

And that's all I've got on her. She seems alright to me.

Hey, look! I cross posted with Kath herself...and Legate.

[Kath]

Cross-posted with Foley there.

I'm curious about if she can pinpoint her gut feeling about Rune. Kath? If you're around will you explain?

Quite honestly I can't at the moment. I may go and find all his posts and look through them properly, see if it was just gut feeling or if there was something that triggered it.

[A Little Green]

Right. I've had a quick look at Nerwen. This is not a proper analysis as I will not even try to report everything she's posted (that would be insane with her over sixty posts). I'm only bringing out a few points from Days 1 and 2 that I found worth notice.

Day 1: Spends most of her time questioning Lottie and phantom, mainly on the subject of phantom and whether or not it makes sense to vote him for rep. (Her almost full concentration on that issue would be eyebrow-raising if it wasn't for the fact that everyone else was doing it too.) Votes Lommy for rep.

The way phantom keeps changing his mind about what his "ploy" was supposed to accomplish (sorry, don't have time to quote now) is quite eyebrow-raising, but unless he does something impossibly Elfish, he's pretty safe from the lynch toDay (with his three votes). And Lottie is puzzling me quite a lot. But then, in the opposite corner, there is also Boro– it's true he's being strange too, though I'd want to see more of him.

Oh, and Mirandir. Her vote was weird.

What gave me a pause here are her really careful choices of words: Boro ”strange”, Lottie ”puzzling”, Mira's vote ”weird”. It would be really convenient for an elf, especially one who is a rep, to voice her suspicions in a way that enables "logical" reactions both ways; looking back on these, it would be as consistent to say "see, I suspected him/her already then!" or "I only found him/her odd, that doesn't equal suspicious." I might really be just reading too much into them though..

She then considers lynching either Boro or one of the phantom-supporters. Votes:

Arrrgh. My internet is showing signs of imminent death. So much as I'd like to chew the fat of who-knows-what-creature with my fellow politigoblins, I'm going to have to vote now.

++Boro for the lynch
++Sally for the lynch.

The vote situation at the time was as follows:
Lottie (3)
Sally (2)
so after her vote it was:
Lottie (3)
Sally (3)
Boro (1)

What interests me here is why she voted Sally instead of Lottie. She said this toDay:

For my part, I thought it would be a good idea to lynch one of them, and I didn't really care which.

If you really didn't care which, wouldn't it have made more sense to give the vote to Lottie who was on the lead, ensuring that one of them did indeed end up lynched? Of course, even with the situation she created (Lottie and Sally in a draw, Boro with two votes less - and the general atmosphere quite anti-Sally&Lottie) it looked quite probable that one of them indeed ends up lynched. Still, why not strive to make it sure if it really made no difference to her?

Day 2: Says, twice, that Izzy was the one she expected to find dead. My initial thought was that an elf would never ever say that. My second one was that a cunning one might, if only to create a sense of there being nothing to analyse in the Night-kill. Hmm. Still, I'm more inclined to find this particular comment innocentish.

She then proceeds to question phantom about his so-called Seer-reveal, and ends up having a rather long and heated argument with him about it. While I agree with her that the matter certainly needed to be discussed, the extent to which she takes it looks a bit suspicious. The elves don't want the village to analyse them. So what better a way to distract everyone than turn all attention on the phantom? Of course such a big argument is bound to draw some attention to herself as well, but in rather a safer way than the regular analysing and moderately suspecting different people.

Votes Shasta for representative. No surprises there.

On the second half of Day 2 she provides a sharp analysis on Sally, Lottie and phantom. Also analyses Wilwa:

Comments: Wilwa posts a lot without saying much; general tone of breathless gaiety is reminiscent of her wolf-style; only starts suspecting Lottie when the latter is clearly in trouble. So yeah, she might be a wolf– but surely only if Sally isn't, because otherwise voting them both would be an insane risk.

Conclusions? Nerwen has kind of slipped under my radar before this - or rather, I pay attention to her posts and actions but forget to consider her alignment and motives. Trying to do so has resulted in her getting to a "leaning evil" -category. The problem is, most of what she does would make sense as both innocent and elf. (Captain Obvious! Yay!) I hope she'll be around to answer a few questions before I need to vote, otherwise I might really be tempted to vote her.

[A Little Green]

Are any of my fellow reps around? If so, who are you considering for toDay's lynch? (I have no interest in this ending up a four-way draw or something like that.)


EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Thinlómien]

Here and happy to see the influx of comments and analyses. Folwren seems more innocent than ever, and Kath's analysis of Rune made me wary of both of them.

Originally Posted by Zil

UoUA

Uruk of Unknown Alignment?

PS. If I'm still alive toMorrow, I'm going to run a campaign myself elected as a rep for purely selfish reasons. It seems like I can't be kicked into truly concentrating on wolf-hunting unless I have to vote, which kind of sucks.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Uruk of Unknown Alignment?

Indeed.

[Folwren]

I only had time to read Greenie's post on Nerwen and in a moment I need to go help may supper...but I wanted to shoot my opinion in on the vote, seeing as Greenie is my rep -

I don't think it's a good idea to lynch Nerwen. Although there are shadows of doubts around here, it is potentially very dangerous to kill her.

-- Foley

[A Little Green]

Whoa. Just saw the time. I've got to be up early tomorrow which means I really really need sleep now. I was hoping to have time to analyse someone else as well and perhaps write a list of some kind - not to mention hear more thoughts from others. Unfortunately I didn't and now I don't. Inzil, since you are around, who do you want to lynch?


EDIT: x-ed with Foley

[Kath]

So, Rune:

1) Banter. Says we should make phantom work for attention.

2) Likes Legate and Lommy. Legate for sound reasoning and Lommy for being bitter and twisted. A cross Lommy has previously meant a wolvish Lommy, but that's to me, might not be to Rune.

3) Indeed he says that he doesn't think Lommy evil.

4) Votes Lommy Rep. Fair enough given he's focused on her in the last two posts and considers her innocent as a result.

5) 'Here' post.

6) Playing hinting games with phantom about possibly being an SoE ... 'a product of certain historical events'. This is the second time he said this. Maybe that's what was prickling at me.

7) Arguing about not limiting power for Reps. Voting for beliefs is actually pretty much what the Reps have done anyway so this post was a little worried-about-nothing but then he didn't know that at the time.

8) Said Boro's change of playing style didn't feel natural, was surprised at his actions. We know Boro to be innocent now so could be a wolf pushing suspicion at Boro. Likes Foley, Legate (consistent) and Nog. Suspicious of Glirdan, again we now know he's innocent, and Greenie and Eonwe for not committng themselves.

9) 'Gone' post.

10) Continued to argue against Boro.

11) Thought about voting for someone hard to read. Thinks phantom is not particularly suspicious. If evil, and mates with phantom, could be trying to protect him. But of course could be innocent and accidentally defending an Elf or innocent and defending an innocent! Yet another case where only death makes it clear.

12) Defended wilwa, whom we know was innocent, and mentions he supports double lynches.

13) Thinks it unlikely sally would be an Elf given Lottie was one, but says it wouldn't be impossible. Pretty much what everyone was thinking at that point.

14) Replying to Nerwen saying while you might get one bold SoE on day 1 you're unlikely to get two working as a team.

15) List post. Suspects Greenie, Glirdan and sally. So two the same and sally almost an afterthought as he wasn't convinced she'd be an SoE given Lottie was. Maybe he thought she was the Undecided Orc? If considering Rune to be an Elf, I would wonder about his opinions on Eonwe. Think it's a little odd he mentioned voting him as Rep when he's in the 'no idea' list not the 'feeling alright' list.

16) Votes Eonwe.

17) 'Here' post.

18) Understands the lynch though he wouldn't have gone for those people first. Well wilwa was not in his suspicions list so fine, sally was but was third so fair enough. Thinks Foley did fine.

19) Answers Greenie about his 'hope this isn't suspicious' joke.

20) Volunteers himself for Rep.

21) Says he'd have voted for Mira for being puzzling. Hmm, maybe this was it. I think I wondered why he said this when he'd had two people down as suspicious and neither of them was Mira.

22) Then says he's looked at Mira's posts and found nothing suspicious. All seemed a little odd.

23) Now Celuien has suddenly popped up as suspicious. Says she defended sally and Lottie and attacked Boro instead. Umm, Rune also suspected Boro that Day ... though dropped that before Day's end. Heard nothing more about Greenie or Glirdan in this time who were on his actual suspect list.

24) Looked at Inzil, feels he's suspicious but found no reasoning.

25) Said he'd like to see me as Rep. Votes for me.

26) Defends his vote.

27) Says he won't vote phantom or Lommy, and will look at Nerwen, Greenie and Shasta. Well he's looking at the village pretty thoroughly then.

So:
Think I figured out that uneasy feeling. It's the way he mentions suspects and then seems to totally discard them. Greenie and Glirdan from the first Day for example.

[Folwren]

Rune, my dear fellow, Celuien is already dead, so you may as well not bother voting for her, unless you'd like to have us lynch a corpse.