WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Glirdan]

Sorry I'm just waking up from having slept as I worked and have to work again so I will be absent for the better part of the Day.

First off, props to the Ranger! Great intuition on their part

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?

For now I must depart and getting for work, I'll be back on afterwards and post some more and get caught up before leaving for eight hours

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

With Shasta being the Seer, I have three possible scenarios running through my mind.

1) He dreamt of Pitch who is a Wolf.

2) His trust in Nerwen (which I had originally thought to be wolfish) could have been because he dreamt of her.

3) Lottie is a Wolf for having had no real suspicion of him in the first place.

Now, it is quite possible that two or all three of these scenarios is right, and it's even more probable that they're all wrong.

However, I am more inclined to believe that at least one of them is correct and that is that the second one.

It's certainly plausible that the second interpretation is correct. But what I can't understand is Shasta's persistent targeting of Pitch, which otherwise appears inexplicable. To me, Pitch looked (and still does look) fairly good otherwise.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

That is all he ever had to say on the subject of Nerwen (which I do believe I mentioned in my vote post ). Why else bring it up?

Possibly for the reason he said: Nerwen agreed with him about the Cobbler.

[Loslote]

First off - what the hey? What was that? That bandwagon has got to be one of the silliest bandwagons I've seen in a long time (and the fact that I've seen sillier is just sad. ). And by 'that bandwagon', I mostly mean the...five, was it, people who voted close to each other, towards the end. Did you guys see no problems in this situation?

Originally Posted by skip spence

But Lottie, I think you should explain to us again why you found Shasta suspicious.

I said repeatedly yesterDay: Total. Gut. Feeling. I thought he felt off. As it happens, I was right - he was off. Just in the wrong sort of way.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK then, that makes sense... especially as I had the same idea at the time, although her repeated disclaimers about having no proof, possibly being mistaken etc. made me doubt it - but then again, these could have been meant to keep the wolves from guessing her. Then, when you wrote those mysterious lines, I thought it could be you, or at least it was probably one of you two... and together, we got the real Seer lynched in the process. Bigtime failure.

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...

EDIT: xed with Zil

[Glirdan]

Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.

I don't know if any of that make sense to anybody else, but I've always had a hard time writing my thoughts out in coherent sentences for this game.

Originally Posted by Legate

The worst thing about the Seer-lynch yesterDay is that it was totally random (obviously, as half of village voted for him), so basically we don't even have any clear lead from the lynch.

I hate to be the one to blatantly point out the obvious, but all Day 1 lynches are completely random unless a Seer were to stupidly reveal themselves on Day 1 for one Wolf. And what do you mean, "the worst thing about the Seer-lynch"? You mean there WAS something good in lynching our Seer on Day 1? Because if there is I would very much like to hear what. I see no upside to having lynched our Seer yesterDay. Yes I know I was one of those advocating for it, but that is because I actually had suspicions of him on Day 1.

Originally Posted by Legate

Ozban sort of stood out as the negative example - he voted while there was no real chance of lynching me, and was doing it in the sort of "normal" way, as if his vote could still accomplish something, but most of all with the sort of "alibistic" style the Wolves sometimes have, saying "my hands are clean from the blood of this one".

I see you're point at the end. Yet he could simply be a mere innocent who did not want to join the mob. May I ask why you are more suspicious of him then say, Wilwa, who not only did the exact same thing as he, but even more so as she was the last to vote?

Originally Posted by Legate

I don't like especially Glirdan and Skip there, their votes are in the sort of convinient place: somewhere in the middle, neither initiators, but still not just the "whatever random last nails to the coffin at the time when it doesn't matter anymore". I have been somewhat suspicious of those two already yesterDay

Well that's funny because I just went back through your posts and nowhere do you mention having any form of opinion on myself and I think you only mentioned Skip once and that was asking to hear more of him in post #45

Originally Posted by Boro

If I know Shasta he would have left at least one clue for us to the one dream he had. When he was the ranger he always left behind clues to his protections. Now the problem is just finding it.

I agree and I think this might be it:

Originally Posted by Shasta

In any case, I'm least okay with Pitch at the moment and most okay with Nerwen (mostly for her views on the cobbler).

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

Originally Posted by Skip

\Firstly, the reason I voted Shasta was not so much his behaviour but rather Lottie's very flimsy accusation. It was so off I actually felt that she might've known something we did not. I felt that there was a distinct possibility that she was the Seer and that she dreamt of a Shasta-wolf, and as his subsequent reaction did not console me that was the best I could come up with at that point.

Interesting, I never thought of this possibility....But now that we know, it is quite possible that we have ourselves a Lottiewolf attempting a bluff at a Seer and had that ruined Day 1 (well, not ruined if she is a Wolf seeing as it did end up lynching the Seer). Or possibly the Cobbler. Hmmmm.....

Originally Posted by Legate

What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her, as she was definitely far more suspicious than Shasta, who, of course in retrospect, didn't really do anything...

What I find curious is that you seem to fail noticing that there were some of us who had actual suspicions of him.

Originally Posted by Legate

And joins the sort of suspicion bandwaggon on Shasta and Lottie.

If by join the bandwagon you mean I went with something that I had actually thought to be suspicious to begin with, then yeah, I guess I did that.

Originally Posted by Legate

wondered why of these two who were in the center of things, people mostly picked Shasta.

If you would like to know, I generally found more suspicion in Shasta than I did in Lottie and even posted about it with my vote. However, as it stands, I will most certainly like to look into Lottie a little more toDay (if I have the time) after yesterDay's events. But you, sir, are raising my eyebrow more and more and would also like to take a closer look at you as well.

Originally Posted by Legate

I am getting somewhat more concerned about Boro, but that is mostly because of his strong pressing against Pitch.

Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Okay, now to get caught up on the OTHER posts that have been made since I started writing this.

In other words, I know I've cross posted with x amount of people since my last.

EDIT: Okay I was wrong, x'ed with Zil and Lottie

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

I'd just like to say that, if Pitchie is a dream'd wolf, a packmate would press the Nerwen-dream. But in general Glirdy's tone in this game has been very non-wolfish, and I'm inclined to trust him...or at least, not vote him.

[Glirdan]

Okay, well I sadly must depart for work shortly and will be unable to post until I get off. Hopefully some conversation might happen whilst I'm away

[wilwarin538]

First off, I'd like to say I don't completely understand why Shasta was voted for by soooo many people. I didn't really think he was that suspicious (his case against Pitch was weird, I'll get back to that, but not *that* suspicious) and then everyone just pounced on him. I mean a couple votes would have made sense, but like 7? Seriously...

So I initially thought that Pitchwolf must have been Shasta's dream, but the more I think about it the more it seems way too obvious to me. I don't know if Shasta would be quite so obvious, since that would paint a huge target on his head for the wolvies. An innocent Nerwen dream seems more likely to me, I'll look at his posts again though once I've slept.

And...I'll stop there. I'm going to go sleep and I have the day off tomorrow (save for a nice little pile of homework) so I should be on fairly regularly.

x'ed with Boro

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nerwen - Nerwen, a question. Whom would you have voted in case you happened to be around earlier? I know it doesn't matter so much anymore and you can make up whatever you wish, but anyway I would like to hear the answer...

All right. I would have probably voted for Lottie or Greenie (i.e. a throwaway– Nog can make of that what he likes). No, not Shasta. I'm not just saying this to play that annoying game of, "Ooo, look, I kept my hands clean by not voting, now I will act like this makes me morally superior". While I did agree that his and Lottie's interactions might be wolf-on-wolf, I also thought if it was only one of them, Lottie was more likely.

On that note, I think the "Shasta looks wolfier" meme of yesterDay needs examining. I couldn't see that at the time and I don't see it now.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I share the anticipation of hearing what Lottie has to say. She tends to be "naturally suspicious" (as I think I phrased it yesterDay) and so her looking that way is no news and says nothing about her lupinity. Also I think that the probability of her being a wolf rested on the scenario of them having a wolf-on-wolf yesterDay.

No, not at all. Why do you think that?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I see Legate keeps repeating this "Shasta was in no way suspicious-looking" -mantra - and it makes me worried. It does feel like the wisdom of the Owl of Minerva only taking to flight after the fact - or of someone who wishes others not to see the facts as they are - namely what Boro brought forwards from yesterDay.

I suspected Shasta for real yeaterDay - and was wrong, and sadly know better now. But him being the seer quite so explains the "out of the blue" consistent attacks on Pitchie - and the oddish case he made against him, and why he didn't vote for Lottie but Pitchie in the end. So those things that made him look so suspicious...

Oh, yes, I understand why Shasta looked suspicious– and obviously voting for him can't in itself be a sign of guilt– but the thing is, everything you could say about him you could also say about Lottie, and then some. (No, I'm not saying Lottie's necessarily guilty, either– just making a point.) So, I'm honestly quite puzzled why he was the one lynched.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The only thing that bothers me with this interpretation is that it makes Shasta quite a reckless seer. That for sure merits some consideration as well. Is there any better explanation to his dream from N1?

It's been said already– he could have dreamed me as an innocent. However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response? Or trying to leave a trail back to him in case he died? A bit clumsy, yes, but it was my jewel's first time as a Seer.

EDIT:X'd with Wilwa.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Here's a thought. Maybe it was Nerwen who the Ranger protected? The Wolves would be smart and go through the game thread and examine every last post and think of the possible meanings, especially after having Shasta revealed as the Seer. They already know that Nerwen is innocent, so why not tie up any loose threads and be done with her so that we couldn't have a known innocent? Maybe the Ranger also picked up on it and that's who he/she chose to protect?

No reason why it couldn't have played out that way. Only a few know for sure though.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Seconded. We don't know what Shasta was up to, but his dreaming a Pitchwolf must at least be a strong possibility. Why is someone discussing that a cause for alarm?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All right. I would have probably voted for Lottie or Greenie (i.e. a throwaway– Nog can make of that what he likes).

I think you've said why Lottie would have been an option for you, but out of curiosity, why Greenie?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I think you've said why Lottie would have been an option for you, but out of curiosity, why Greenie?

I didn't like the way she said Lottie sounded "very genuine", or whatever it was. I know one can't expect everyone to see things the same way, but I thought it pretty obvious that Lottie, whatever her role, was up to something, and that the reasons she gave for suspecting Shasta were quite contrived– c.f. her own explanation toDay.

At least, they're the people I was thinking about when I signed off yesterDay. I might have thrown some others into the mix if I'd been around later.

I maintain that bandwagon was weird, and that those saying, "yes, but he WAS suspicious!" are missing the point. Everyone involved was moderately to highly experienced– did it really occur to none of you that a big, near-unanimous bandwagon on Day One probably wasn't the best idea?*

Apparently not. So– I say there was some pretty skilful manipulation going on yesterDay. We may be able to find traces.




*If someone's extremely suspicious, that's different– but once again, I don't see that Shasta was.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Lottie - I don't know what to think. What I find curious is that people voted Shasta rather than her

That was the strangest thing to me about the voting yesterday. I mean usually there's a pretty wide spread and you can be lynched with 3 or 4 votes, but that has got to be one of the biggest Day 1 bandwagons I've ever seen.

I haven't seen that type of vast majority agreement in the village, unless the Seer stepped out to reveal a wolf. Usually once someone gets 1 or 2 votes, with the close nature of Day 1 someone who doesn't agree will step up to defend and warn against a bandwagon. There was no one who did, which means either villagers took the easy vote for someone they thought was acting weird or the wolves bandwagoned the heck out of that to push Shasta as the clear lynch.

For myself, my random vote became more frustration than anything. Because when I went to do a vote count the votes were: Shasta - 3, Pitch - 1and Lottie - 1. I wasn't suspicious of any of those choices and was trying to put another name into the list. At the time my strongest suspect was Nogrod, not particularly strong reasons though. I couldn't get this image out of my head that Nog had this gigantic smirking grin on his face every time he posted. No joke about that, I just imagine him having this massive smirk across his face all Day 1. The reason I didn't vote for him is simply because I think someone is up to something doesn't mean they are necessarily evil. And with Day 1's I tend to let the people who look up to something go and do their thing, just watch them until I can figure them out, and then vote for someone who hasn't left any real impressions.

Then before I even know it Shasta's got another two votes giving him 5 and by that time I basically threw my hands up for the night. He was all but dead and buried. That's the shame about the lynch is by that point when Shasta has the 5 votes, everyone's vote after is virtually useless. I was hoping to try and add some competition and make the last voters votes mean more as they'd be faced with a more difficult choice, but before I could blink Shasta went from 3 to 5 and you can stick a phorc in him at that point.

That Day 1 would make a good psych study though, because usually once you get one dissenter those after the dissenter are more likely to dissent themselves. However, no one dissented, and without a dissenter the rocks just keep piling. Morrrre weight!

Originally Posted by Loslote

Yeah, I realized later that my disclaimers could look Seerish. After I noticed that, my 'plan' was to lynch Shasta, who was supposed to be a wolf, and then maybe/hopefully the wolves would kill me instead of the real Seer. Yeah. That went well. Now pardon me while I go head-desk for a few minutes...

Oddly enough I actually believe those were your intentions. Complete and total failure on your part. I've been there and done that too though, so yeah, know the feeling.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

He never had any real suspicion behind Pitch and never mentions Nerwen in any of his posts afterwards. I'm inclined to believe that, if there was hint, it was towards Nerwen. Shasta is no fool when it comes to this game and would be subtle about leaving his hints, and I think that's about as subtle as it comes. He didn't want to draw attention to Nerwen.

And that's what makes me the most wary. I mean would a seer Shasta who dreamt of a Pitchwolf continually just pile on weak, unreasoned suspicions like that on Day 1? Quite bold and reckless indeed and heck if I'd know that.

The only scenario I can come up with that would be Shasta did not dream of Pitch is something that probably would belong in Werewolf twisted lore . That is, Shasta was doing some twisted double bluff in looking like the seer, but giving a wrong clue to throw the wolves off. I mean when I try to bluff to be the seer, I pick one person for random junk reasons and if I'm right I hope the wolf is nervous enough to bite and if I'm wrong then obviously the wolves know I'm not the seer. So, with Shasta actually being the seer, in order to still look seerish but protect himself from the wolves, his continued pressing on Pitch was almost like a false clue or red herring. And that he was suspicious of Pitch, but hadn't dreamed of him and possibly telegraphing his next dream?

I want to point out that my previous post, which went through Shasta's posts was NOT a "lynch Pitch campaign." We have a dead seer, I want to try and figure out what his 1 dream was so we could get something useful from the mess. The fact still remains he only suspected Pitch for what at the time to everyone else looked like complete junk reasons. I have no clue what it means, or whether his dream was Pitch or not. That's not the purpose of my post, my purpose was to try to organize the Seer's posts into one and find out what, if any, clues were in them.

Edit: crossed with Glirdan