WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Perhaps his strong pressing against Pitch would have something to do with the fact that our dead Seer was strongly against Pitch. I don't know just a theory. I find this suspicion rather disconcerting.

Erm, isn't that what you're meant to do with the Seer's suspicions?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I thought skip could be intimating he was the Seer, especially when coupled with something I'd seen from him earlier.

What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, let us suppose Shasta did in fact dream Pitch– perhaps he was trying to provoke Mr Agreeable Wolf into a response?

Or even if he hadn't dreamed pitch and just suspected him he could have been doing the same.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

Final Post Count from yesterDay:

Lottie -> Shasta
Shasta -> Pitch
Legate -> Lottie
Inzil -> Shasta 2
Glirdy -> Shasta 3
Skip - > Shasta 4
Pitch - > Shasta 5
Boro - > Nerwen
Greenie - > Shasta 6
Nog - > Shasta 7
Ozzy - > Legate
Wilwa - > Wilwa

Did not vote:
Eonwe, Nerwen

Out of those who voted for Shasta, I'm more inclined to believe that a Wolf is hiding in the later voters, more so in Greenie and Nog. At the time of their voting, Shasta had already garnered enough votes to have him lynched seeing as after Boro had voted, it only left those two along with Ozzy and Wilwa. Even if they had all voted for the same person and had tied up the votes, our Mod Goddess would have flipped a coin as there are no double lynchings, therefore, still a fifty/fifty chance of Shasta being lynched. The placement of both those votes just seems to safe.

That's not exactly true, because if they would all have voted for someone that had already been voted and I had too then there wouldn't have been a tie. Just pointing that out.

On the other hand, it's always very unlikely to get everyone to vote the same, especially on Day 1, which is why this much-too-easy-looking bandwaggon is so strange.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I agree with Legate's point. Like she's saying "what were you guys thinking when you agreed with me about his suspiciousness?". Seriously? Anyone who actually voted for him is not allowed to say "what were you guys thinking". You vote for someone, you obviously want them dead, you can't chastise other people who also voted for them. Admittedly the later voters do look worse, but putting all the blame on them is silliness.

I have to agree with this, which is why Lottie looks a bit self-contradictory, and in this case, maybe a bit suspicious too. Though it could be an innocent's confusion and change of mind as well (along the lines of "Well, if it was so obvious that Shasta looked innocent, why didn't you so something about it?"). It's hard to tell.

And I agree with whoever said that all the talk of people voting because of who they thought might be the seer is a little suspicious too.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

What exactly was it that you saw? Tell us now, since we know he isn't the Seer.

His first post was strange, to say the least. I didn't know what to make of it at the time, but when he hinted he had reasons for wanting to vote Shasta it came back to me.

x/d with Nog

[Eönwë]

Well, these are the options as I see them, in terms of the Pitch and Nerwen thing:


1. Nerwen is a wolf and Pitch is innocent. If we take any of Shasta's suggestions as hints, this is very unlikely.
2. Pitch is a wolf and Nerwen is innocent. Obviously, both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
3. Both are wolves. Both would go for Nerwen's innocence.
4. Both are innocent. Pitch would go for Nerwen's innocence, Nerwen would be unsure and wouldn't want to be become a wolf target.

Cobblers, on the other hand:

1. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is a wolf. Would go for Nerwen's innocence.
2. Pitch is a Cobbler and thinks Nerwen is innocent. Would again go for Nerwen's innocence
3. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch innocent. Would go for Pitch's guiltiness.
4. Nerwen is a Cobbler and thinks Pitch wolvish. Would go for her innocence.

In summary:
Pitch will always go for Nerwen's innocence. Nerwen is more likely to go for her innocence too as a wolf, and as an innocent may be undecisive.

Also, if we lynch Pitch we will almost know whether Nerwen is innocent or not. Don't know whether that's a good idea.


PS. This post got messed up so I had to rewrite it. I probably x-ed with hundreds.

edit: I did.

[Eönwë]

++Lottie

Will explain later.

edit: x-ed with many.