WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

In fact, earlier in the Day, when Zil was talking about it, it was a pretty obvious question. So what you just did looks... also rather creepy.

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?

Will be off for a short bit but should be back soonish.

Curious to her from Greenie why she suspects me too...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Okay, quickly responding to this: I fail to see why this was such an obvious question. Maybe it's my lack of ww experience, but why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits?

It's usual to speculate a bit on why someone was killed, especially in a case where it's unexpected. Also, Nogrod raised the point first. Also, it's an argument for my being a known innocent. So I still don't see what you're worrying about.

None of this, of course, means that Zil couldn't be a wolf helpfully explaining the reasons for the kill. They do that sometimes.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It's usual to speculate a bit on why someone was killed, especially in a case where it's unexpected. Also, Nogrod raised the point first. Also, it's an argument for my being a known innocent. So I still don't see what you're worrying about.

Okay to spell it out, I felt that this might be an Inzil-wolf trying to make himself look useful but without actually taking the discussion forwards in any productive way. That you are a likely Seer dream should be obvious to all innocents and I don't see the point talking too much about it. In fact, I didn't even see the need to bring it up in the first place, not even when Pitch was still alive, even less so now.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Okay to spell it out, I felt that this might be an Inzil-wolf trying to make himself look useful but without actually taking the discussion forwards in any productive way. That you are a likely Seer dream should be obvious to all innocents and I don't see the point talking too much about it. In fact, I didn't even see the need to bring it up in the first place, not even when Pitch was still alive, even less so now.

That he could be a wolf being "helpful" is, as I said, quite possible– however, it is, as I also said, usual to speculate.

EDIT:X'd since skip.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Legate

Now wilwa's reply to Boro didn't seem very cobblerish, but her vote was a bit weird (or the explanation of it, in the light of the current events). She really was basically like "let's start the bandwaggon!" I would like to hear more from her, like, what was going through your mind at that moment, wilwa? Can you somehow elaborate or re-explain it?

You mean my vote from yesterDay I assume? My vote yesterDay for Pitch was because I thought he was a likely Seer dream, and I felt if we didn't lynch him we would just end up wasting today talking about him some more. I regret he was innocent, but I feel it was a good decision since the Seer suspected him strongly, and we would certainly have just wasted toDay talking about him some more and likely would have just done it toDay, and if he had ended up guilty and we didn't lynch him, that would have been dumb.

So I finished Day 1, I will now take a short break and go through yesterDay and today, and then hopefully have a better feel for everyone. I hadn't been around a lot Day 1, and this was my first chance to go through it a lot, so I noticed some things that had gone right past me, and I think it'll end up changing my opinions on a few people.

I for the most part skipped taking notes on the dead, I’m focusing on the living here, and I didn’t concentrate on Nerwen, cause it seems clear she’s innocent, and don’t summarise my own posts or anything that I don’t think is significant. This is not a play by play of everything that was said, just what I think is important. + means I feel good about this post, - means I don't like, = means I’m iffy/neutral.

Leg #5: brings up Cobbler, calls the existence of one ‘unusual’, warns about false reveals. Was just stirring discussion. +

Inzil #6: we shouldn’t dismiss the Cobbler as a lersser threat, even if identifies +

Nog #7: points out seer can dream cobbler, so we shouldn’t be too concerned if they false reveal, we’ll know soon enough if they are lying. stresses that cobbler should not be main target as long as we have wolfy suspects. Cobbler not really threat til later in game. +

Leg # 10: a bit long winded, but basically says that if a false reveal happens the legit Gifted should be very discerning about whether or not to step forward =

Nog # 11: says: “The wolves will try to be nice and friendly. The innocents will be brutal and openly attacking people (hopefully).” which I find....odd. And I don’t like it, though it does apply to some people, it’s not a rule, and I don’t like that he stated it as such. –

Leg # 14: says cobbler should be ‘ignored, ignored, ignored’...meh, I don’t think the cobbler should take precedence over a wolf regarding lynch choices, but I wouldn’t say we should ignore them, they can be a threat in end game. –

Inzil #16: says basically that, that they are not our biggest threat, but it’s unwise to ignore them. +

Lottie #17: says that same thing again. + (goodness, I had forgotten just how much we talked about the cobbler, that’s surprising)

Lottie #26: vague list, of note: “Shasta: Evil wolfykins” then in #29 she brings up how she didn’t like the way he worded his post when he corrected me on the Hunter. She says this though: “Of course, when he's a wolf, I can never tell, so he's probably innocent anyway. Best I've got so far as far as suspicion goes, though.” –

Lottie #32: after calling him non-confrontational, calls him aggressive. Says her suspicion is almost solely gut feeling. –

Legate #35: points out Lottie-Shasta thing, considers W-on-W, but not really suspicious of either. Another big paragraph about the Cobbler. it’s all just so wishy-washy, back and forth, like he doesn’t want to take a side on anything. –

Greenie #39: says this “I find it amusing that people keep saying the wolves are our top priority, and yet the main topic of discussion is the cobbler.” Things perhaps the cobbler himself is helping to carry along the cobbler discussion. Gives a list of the possibilities of Shasta-Lottie, which are basically all of the possibilities: IL-IS, IL-WS, WL-IS or WL-WS. So I like the start of the post, but not the end. =

(yay, page 2! *dances*)

Nog #42: agrees with me that the Hunter should be quiet and not reveal, at all. +

Boro #43: basically reiterates everything that had been said about the Cobbler, and thinks we should look for the Cobbler while also looking for wolves, instead of just one or the other at a time. Says the speech on no stupid lynches (psychic). +

Ozban #44: points out strangeness of Greenie’s list (I agree), doesn’t want to make a big deal of Shasta-Legate thing, and says priority should be Wolves, go after Cobbler only if we have a good idea. I really like Ozzy, he must have played a similar game on another board, cause he seems to have skillz. +

Leg #45: makes actually a good point of how discussion of anything, even pointless ones about Cobblers, can be useful just for judging people’s reactions. Says Hunter should certainly not reveal, except maybe at end so we have known innocents, but even then probably not (I agree). Was wary of Shasta-Lottie. +
Inzil #50: says: “Individually, Lottie and Shasta seem to me to be their usual selves, but the interplay between them could be said to have had a bit of a companionlike feel.” notes Shasta’s odd suspicion of Pitch. +

Skip #56: big IC thing, and then wants to hunt wolves. Seems like a bit of a waste of time, considering he says he won’t be around a lot and there were things to talk about, but his IC thing was amusing. =

Lottie #57: votes Shasta, admits her suspicion is mostly feeling. = (did this bandwagon seriously start because of a ‘feeling’, hmm)

Boro #62: likes Oz and Pitch, neutral about Leg, doesn’t get why Greeni’s scenarios were weird (uhm, because they were a bit obvious, and didn’t seem to accomplish anything). =

Leg #63: still talking about the Cobbler –

Skip #64: says “green is being captain obvious”, says he’ll vote Shasta for reasons he doesn’t want to disclose. =

Greenie #68: seems fine with Lottie, and confused about Shasta’s vote. =

Inzil #71: says “Right now, the obvious choices toDay would seem to be Shasta and Lottie. I can't see both being wolves together, and it seems a bit too easy to have a wolf there. I'm going to look at other options, then.” +

Greenie #72: list, points out Leggy’s wishy-washy-ness, considers him as Cobbler (wow, that was actually becoming my thought as well). Guesses Lottie innocent, but yet would not be surprised if she’s Wolf with Shasta (later says no, cause of Lottie’s vote). Doesn’t trust Shasta, doesn’t really give much of a reason. Feels good or neutral about everyone else. =

Nog #77: mentions his ‘nice-wolfies’ theory again, which I still don’t agree with. –

Leg # 78: suspects Lottie more than Shasta, but doesn’t want to lynch her cause she was lynched early last game (votes Lottie two posts later) =

(yay, page 3 *dances*)

Inzil #81: wants to give Shasta benefit of the doubt, but no one else looks as bad. So he votes him. –

Skip # 82: rather see Shasta go over Lottie (later votes him) =

Nog #83: says could vote for pitch, Shasta, skip, me or inzil. (last three because he hasn’t formed much opinion on us) (ends up going with Shasta). =

Greenie #95: wants to vote Shasta (she does), feels his death could give info next day since most people talked about him, meh –

Boro #97: says he’ll go random (ends up choosing Nerwen), since he doesn’t like any of the other options, I actually approve of this +

Ozzy #107: votes Leg, says this: “Right now, the obvious choices toDay would seem to be Shasta and Lottie. I can't see both being wolves together, and it seems a bit too easy to have a wolf there. I'm going to look at other options, then.” I approve. +

Eonwe #110: doesn’t find Shasta suspicious, doesn’t like Boro’s vote, mentions cobbler discussion, says people seem to be aligning their opinion with the majority, I like this. +


There. Oh, and I didn't really proof read this much, so sorry for any spelling/grammar mistakes.

Now off to do Day 2.

x'ed with greenie, and maybe others, I'll get back to all those posts soon

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by skip, bolding mine

why is it such an interesting question how the wolves picked Glirdy as the ranger. I don't think it was a coincidence (since they could've taken the safe choice and killed off the protected person last night) but still, even if we can identify his slip, does that make it easier to find the culprits? And if so, how is that?

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.



edit: fixed quote. Wow. My formatting is terrible toDay.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.

We-ell... I think it has been pretty generally accepted by now– though only because of that speculation and analysis which Skip himself finds questionable.

Thought: could his irritation at this be that of a wolf who knows perfectly well why they killed Glirdan, thank you very much, and so can't understand why we're even bothering to talk about it? It wouldn't be the first time wolves have failed to take into account the gap between what they know and what the villagers do.

That said, I'm not all that inclined to trust Zil, either.

EDIT:X'd since Steve.

[Eönwë]

Definitely not liking Lottie.

Just reread Day 1.

On her second post she suddenly (jokingly?) suspects Shasta, and then suddenly gets more serious about it in her next post, with the very wolvish "here is some evidence for why he could be evil, but I'm probably wrong, but still, look at this evidence" sort of approach. The classic trying-to-start-other-people-suspecting-someone tactic. And then votes him after a few posts, with not much more reasoning.

edit: x-ed with page.

[Eönwë]

So
++Lottie

again.

edit: didn't get a chance to read any other posts since the last, so basically another x with the page.

[Eönwë]

Well it seems like that didn't happen then.

edit: x-ed with Modess, etc.

[Thinlómien]

Alright, since Zil xed with me and his vote does count, it's a tie. This means, I'm going to flip a coin and you're going to have even more suspense for the next 25-40 minutes...

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Is that a confession? It's just that the wording there sounds quite certain that that's why the wolves chose him.

Oh come on!

Hm.

List of people I'd consider voting:
Lottie - Not liking her from Day One, and not liking her vote on me. I was one of the people to get a vote yesterDay and her vote on me toDay seems like an opportunistic way of starting another bandwagon to lynch an innocent. Would hate to see her lynched if she turns out innocent though, which is certainly a possibility.
Legate - Not a likely fellow of Lottie. I'm torn about him, but leaning towards guilty.
Inziladun - As I said, he seems very very careful. And the wolves have had little reason to take chances so far, it seems.

Would also consider Green or Steve considering what's come up lately, but we'll see about that.

[Eönwë]

Well, a few thoughts:

Positive:

Nerwen- Willing to accept her as innocent for now.

Wilwa- Seems genuine, and I seem to agree with quite a lot she has to say.

Legate- Looks much better in my eyes after his last post. He raises some interesting points and . On the other hand, he could be a wolf giving away some of last Night's thoughts in order to make himself look good, though this seems less likely to me.

Nogrod- He's finally gone back to normal-Nogrod-mode, so I feel better about him now.

Not sure:

Ozzy- Well, he seems generally alright, but I can't get a read on him at all.

Worried about:

Lottie- I found her very suspicious yesterDay, but now I'm not so sure. I need to reread her posts to see why I found her so evil.

Skip- Worries me. Sometimes he seems so innocent, while at others he seems almost certainly evil.

Inzil- Slippery, and more than usual. He makes sense, but he just worries me.

Boro- Not acting how I remember innocent-Boro. And more importantly, how is he third on the post count when nothing he's said has really stood out.


edit: x-ed since Wilwa's long post.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Skip

Well now, would you have preferred that everyone voted Pitch? Because everyone (bar the wolves) must have considered Pitch a likely Seer dream (still haven't forgiven Shasta for that). Notice that likely doesn't translate to certain.

Surely not, but I still don't get your reasoning. I have no preference about whether everyone should have voted Pitch or not, but I have concerns about your conduct concerning that affair and your explanation didn't help.

++ Skip

For reasons, check the analysis post.