WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 05:28 AM

Well, this changes things considerably... and well, my gut reaction would be to trust wilwa actually as my theory about a baddie Skip coming up with a nice trick started to look like a believable one as I wrote it down. *needs to think*

Nogrod · 10-12-2010, 06:31 AM

All right. What would wilwa and the bad side accomplish if wilwa was a cobbler or a wolf and came forwards disputing Skip's reveal?

If we lynch the real hunter Skip toDay because of wilwa's fake-reveal what happens? Skip takes with him wilwa of course as not to risk an innocent dying.
- If wilwa is a wolf it will be 4-1-2 (cobbler included); so in the next morning either 3-1-2, or 4-2.
- If wilwa is the cobbler it will be 4-3 and in the next morning 3-3!!!

If we lynch a real hunter wilwa, the same maths apply ie. if Skip is a wolf we might have some fighting chances toMorrow (if they kill their cobbler during the night) but if he's the cobbler we lose automatically.

Uh-oh...

Well what would happen if we lynched one of them right?

We'd get a cobbler or a wolf. And here I think there are different probabilities between Skip and wilwa. For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.
- So with wilwa correctly lynched we'd probably be in 5-3 - and thus 4-3 the next Day, with a known innocent (Skip) with us.
How about Skip then? With him I could see also the scenario where he tries to save himself form lynching also as a wolf. So he might be either one as well (he was really facing lynching there).
- If Skip is a cobbler we make it the same as with wilwacobbler; 4-3 toMorrow + a known innocent (wilwa).
- With Skipwolf we make it to 5-1-2 in the end of the Day and thus either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow (with a known innocent wilwa).

Now the question becomes, whether we can afford to not lynch one of them or whether we can take the risk of doing that? And how confident we can be to pick the right one? The last question has a bearing to the first one to be sure.

So what are our chances if we leave them both be?

Out of 9 people left we'd have a pool of 7 possible lynchées - so every innocent would have 6 possibilities to choose - and 3 of them would be baddies (3 wolves or 2 wolves & 1 cobbler). So a 50% chance to pick a baddie.

- If we'd lynch a wolf we'd be in 5-1-2, then either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow.
- If we'd lynch a cobbler we'd be in 5-3 and then toMorrow in 4-3.
- If we'd lynch an innocent we'd be in 4-1-3 and then toMorrow in 3-1-3 or 4-3.

In this scenario one must note, that toMorrow's situation includes us having there two known persons (wilwa & Skip) of which one is the hunter and another is either a wolf or a cobbler.

Quite scary scenarios...

EDIT: X'd with Boro

EDIT2: Underlined those scenarios for toMorrow that lead to a straight wolf-win or a situation where only one wrong vote would lead to wolf-victory.

Boromir88 · 10-12-2010, 06:50 AM

The thing is Nog, I still can't fathom a reason why a wolf would make the hunter reveal at this time. With having a significant voting advantage (and already showing the capability of controlling the lynches) I can't see them wanting to make a hunter reveal.

Which means out of wilwa or Skip, one is the hunter, the other is the cobbler who has now seen his/her opportunity to die for the wolves. I think best case, we lynch one of them today if we lynch the cobbler, we are still in a must lynch wolf scenario, but we've taken away the traitor who can follow the wolves vote (or just self-vote and let the wolves tag on).

If we lynch the hunter, because at this point my head is completely scrambles and will have to try and sort this out. I guarantee whether it Skip or wilwa, if they target the other one, they'll only find the cobbler and it's game over. Since going into the night this would make 3 wolves and 4 innocents, they make their kill and it's 3-3. So if we choose wrong and lynch the hunter, the hunter should choose someone else as a shot in dark for a wolf. But at this stage whoever the real hunter is, is going to be extremely peeved off if we wind up lynching them and probably not in any mood to help us, seeing as that would mean we've managed to lynch 2/3rds of our gifteds.

My head's going to take a break. I don't see much of a choice other than wilwa or Skip today though, even if one is most certainly the cobbler. And if we hit the cobbler, than barring the wolves doing something completely crazy and killing the hunter, we'll have a known innocent in the count and no more cobbler who can just tack on a vote with the wolves.

Edit: crossed with wilwa

10-12-2010, 05:28 AM	#1
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	Well, this changes things considerably... and well, my gut reaction would be to trust wilwa actually as my theory about a baddie Skip coming up with a nice trick started to look like a believable one as I wrote it down. needs to think __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet...

10-12-2010, 06:31 AM	#2
Nogrod Flame of the Ainulindalë Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Wearing rat's coat, crowskin, crossed staves in a field behaving as the wind behaves Posts: 9,308	All right. What would wilwa and the bad side accomplish if wilwa was a cobbler or a wolf and came forwards disputing Skip's reveal? If we lynch the real hunter Skip toDay because of wilwa's fake-reveal what happens? Skip takes with him wilwa of course as not to risk an innocent dying. - If wilwa is a wolf it will be 4-1-2 (cobbler included); so in the next morning either 3-1-2, or 4-2. - If wilwa is the cobbler it will be 4-3 and in the next morning 3-3!!! If we lynch a real hunter wilwa, the same maths apply ie. if Skip is a wolf we might have some fighting chances toMorrow (if they kill their cobbler during the night) but if he's the cobbler we lose automatically. Uh-oh... Well what would happen if we lynched one of them right? We'd get a cobbler or a wolf. And here I think there are different probabilities between Skip and wilwa. For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic. - So with wilwa correctly lynched we'd probably be in 5-3 - and thus 4-3 the next Day, with a known innocent (Skip) with us. How about Skip then? With him I could see also the scenario where he tries to save himself form lynching also as a wolf. So he might be either one as well (he was really facing lynching there). - If Skip is a cobbler we make it the same as with wilwacobbler; 4-3 toMorrow + a known innocent (wilwa). - With Skipwolf we make it to 5-1-2 in the end of the Day and thus either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow (with a known innocent wilwa). Now the question becomes, whether we can afford to not lynch one of them or whether we can take the risk of doing that? And how confident we can be to pick the right one? The last question has a bearing to the first one to be sure. So what are our chances if we leave them both be? Out of 9 people left we'd have a pool of 7 possible lynchées - so every innocent would have 6 possibilities to choose - and 3 of them would be baddies (3 wolves or 2 wolves & 1 cobbler). So a 50% chance to pick a baddie. - If we'd lynch a wolf we'd be in 5-1-2, then either 4-1-2 or 5-2 toMorrow. - If we'd lynch a cobbler we'd be in 5-3 and then toMorrow in 4-3. - If we'd lynch an innocent we'd be in 4-1-3 and then toMorrow in 3-1-3 or 4-3. In this scenario one must note, that toMorrow's situation includes us having there two known persons (wilwa & Skip) of which one is the hunter and another is either a wolf or a cobbler. Quite scary scenarios... EDIT: X'd with Boro EDIT2: Underlined those scenarios for toMorrow that lead to a straight wolf-win or a situation where only one wrong vote would lead to wolf-victory. __________________ Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... Last edited by Nogrod; 10-12-2010 at 06:39 AM.

10-12-2010, 06:50 AM	#3
Boromir88 Laconic Loreman Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: USA Posts: 7,522	The thing is Nog, I still can't fathom a reason why a wolf would make the hunter reveal at this time. With having a significant voting advantage (and already showing the capability of controlling the lynches) I can't see them wanting to make a hunter reveal. Which means out of wilwa or Skip, one is the hunter, the other is the cobbler who has now seen his/her opportunity to die for the wolves. I think best case, we lynch one of them today if we lynch the cobbler, we are still in a must lynch wolf scenario, but we've taken away the traitor who can follow the wolves vote (or just self-vote and let the wolves tag on). If we lynch the hunter, because at this point my head is completely scrambles and will have to try and sort this out. I guarantee whether it Skip or wilwa, if they target the other one, they'll only find the cobbler and it's game over. Since going into the night this would make 3 wolves and 4 innocents, they make their kill and it's 3-3. So if we choose wrong and lynch the hunter, the hunter should choose someone else as a shot in dark for a wolf. But at this stage whoever the real hunter is, is going to be extremely peeved off if we wind up lynching them and probably not in any mood to help us, seeing as that would mean we've managed to lynch 2/3rds of our gifteds. My head's going to take a break. I don't see much of a choice other than wilwa or Skip today though, even if one is most certainly the cobbler. And if we hit the cobbler, than barring the wolves doing something completely crazy and killing the hunter, we'll have a known innocent in the count and no more cobbler who can just tack on a vote with the wolves. Edit: crossed with wilwa __________________ Fenris Penguin

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