WW LXXXII: Return to Tol-in-Gaurhoth

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nog

For I think it would have been not a good idea from a wolwilwa to make a fake-reveal but as a cobbler move it would be fantastic.

Well, you know I'm a smart wolf, so that's not a possibility. And I've been a Cobbler once and my fake reveal as a Ranger ended up keeping the real Ranger alive for 2 days and ultimately giving away one of the wolves and handing the victory over to the village. I don't think I'd ever try a fake reveal as a Cobbler, ever again, no matter how good the situation is. But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...

x'ed with Boro, maybe I won't hunt Skip then, I'll hunt someone else and if y'all want to lynch me then hopefully I choose a wolf....still think it was a good idea for me to come forward? I'm not sure anymore...

[Inziladun]

Oh, bloody hell. A counter-reveal. At least it didn't come at the end of the Day.

Time to go back and look at them both.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But that's just my word, which you don't seem to trust...

Basically I don't so much as to trust more or less anyone at this point... but did you read the part you quoted? I said it would be a bad move... meaning: less believable you did it (as a wolf, that is). So I don't think you are a wolf. You might be the cobbler. As could Skip. Hard to say.

In any case, as I said, if one of them is a wolf, then it is Skip as he was in dire straits last minutes in the game yesterDay - and that would be a good way to get himself clear from the situation (also as a cobbler).

Anyway. Greenie is actually going to pass by here and then I have things to do, but I'll be back later.

[wilwarin538]

Oh, and one more thought before people come on and start voting. Let's say there hadn't been any Hunter reveals today, which out of me and Skip would have more likely been lynched? I haven't gotten very much suspicion this whole game, Skip has, perhaps there's a reason for that?

I won't be able to come on again for a few more hours because of classes and such, but I'll be on to vote (likely for Skip, unless something more crazy happens) in about 3 hours.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Oh, and one more thought before people come on and start voting. Let's say there hadn't been any Hunter reveals today, which out of me and Skip would have more likely been lynched? I haven't gotten very much suspicion this whole game, Skip has, perhaps there's a reason for that?

I won't be able to come on again for a few more hours because of classes and such, but I'll be on to vote (likely for Skip, unless something more crazy happens) in about 3 hours.

I'm staying back from who to trust for now until I see what Skip has to say 'bout all this...

I will say the hints you've left aside, your argument that "Nog you know I'm a smart wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf and I've failed at a cobbler before. I would not try fake reveals as a cobbler again, ergo I'm not a cobbler. Means I must be hunter" isn't all that convincing. In the very least doesn't look anymore convincing than Skip's reasons for revealing. Different situation this time mah dear, simply because you've had a bad go your previous time as cobbler doesn't mean you aren't playing it brilliantly this time around. We all know your brilliance as a villain.

With that being said, the Legate hint you left in your post does speak in your favor (unless now seeing as the hunter was the only gifted left yesterday you decided to plant hints as the cobbler for a situation like this). Plus your self-vote on Day 1 could still be a signal to the wolvsies. And your general attitude today with the combined frustration of everything looks genuine, as opposed to Skip's more defeatist attitude of "Well this is a mess, I've got no choice now."

As to whether I'm happy you still revealed? Yes, because if you're the hunter this means Skips the baddie and we can lynch him. If you're not this means you're the baddie and we lynch you. If Skip's not the hunter, and you left his claim uncontested, with the wolves advantage in voting today, if we proceeded to lynch an innocent today it's all over.

Ok. Say if Skip is the cobbler here and his claim was not contested by hunter-Wilwa. The wolves wouldn't know which one of you is the cobbler or not and with the wolves numbers today could easily steer it towards an innocent we still lose 1 in the innocent count. Meaning we go into the night with 3 wolves, 5 innocents (one being the unknown hunter). Let's then Wilwa you are the hunter, and not having to reveal, the wolves picked you to kill at night, and you took one of them down. We're still in a must lynch wolf the following day, because at this point, your gift would just balance it. This would just make it 2 wolves to 4 innocents (no hunter). It's still a must lynch wolf the following day or, during the night it goes to 3 to 2, and then the wolves make it 2-2 with their night kill.

If you're the real hunter you made a good choice. If you left Skip's claim uncontested, we likely wouldn't lynch him, but the wolves + cobbler-Skip could have steered it toward another innocent. Where even if you stayed hidden, and they by chance killed you and you killed a wolf with you, the next day is still, lynch a wolf or it's over for the village. I hope you can follow that jumbled bit of math. If you're the hunter, I never said it wouldn't be a headache to come forward and see who's telling the truth, but now we know at least one of you is false.

[wilwarin538]

Ok. Yeah, I guess I see your point. I just didn't like the idea of revealing because the baddies manipulated me into a situation where I was forced to, I prefered the idea of revealing because I wanted to, you know? But yes, I see that the situation did call for me to.

Originally Posted by Boro

"Nog you know I'm a smart wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf and I've failed at a cobbler before. I would not try fake reveals as a cobbler again, ergo I'm not a cobbler. Means I must be hunter" isn't all that convincing.

I know. But I felt I had to try every argument I could come up with, no matter how lame they may be, since it's kind of important for you guys to pick the right person here.

*goes back to paying attention in class*

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I am the real Hunter.

This makes sense to me. I thought I was just being silly, thinking that skip reeked of evil. Of course, it might still be me picking up on gifted vibes (again), but I really don't trust skip, I didn't really even when I thought he was the Hunter, and I trusted Vanilwuffin even before this.

I'll be back before DL toDay, so I don't have to vote yet.

[skip spence]

Okay, I see that Wilwa has come out in the open...

Was hoping that she'd understand what I was trying to do is and stay hidden, or stay hidden because she'd deem it wiser as it long seemed, but it is understandable that she didn't in the end...

Wilwa is the real hunter, of that I'm 95 % sure. I understood that already from the beginning, which is why I urged her to consider what's going on.

Originally Posted by skip

Listen Wilwa, I really do understand your concern, and don't blame you for it. I'm aware that it takes a measure of faith on your part, but if you clear your mind and think about it again, I think you will find that is makes sense for us, it really does.

So, why then?

In my first post of the Day I mentioned a second reason for revealing:

Originally Posted by skip

I do have another reason to reveal too, apart from saving my life, and that is one I feel should come out into the open given how this game has developed.

Yes, I wanted the real hunter to reveal herself, if only for me, so our chances of getting a wolf toDay would increase.

Now I know Wilwa's innocent. I hope that you can believe me too when I say that I'm not a bad guy, not a wolf nor a cobbler, but a mere ordo.

If you think about what I did, but yesterDay and toDay, it makes little sense for a wolf to do so, wouldn't you say? It makes much more sense for a desperate innocent. Especially what I'm doing now. If I were a baddie, I'd have no reason whatsoever (bar a crazy double-bluff) to go out and say that Wilwa is right and that I bluffed.

[skip spence]

Of course, I had hoped that Legate would turn out to be a wolf. If he did, I'd quickly go out and say that my bluff yesterDay was false. Now, with Legate a proven innocent, I feared that I would seem the obvious lynch toDay if I didn't do anything drastic to stop it.

[skip spence]

I had also hoped that the real hunter would turn out to be somebody else than Wilwa, the person most universally trusted up until toDay. Still I think a lot can be learned from all this.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by skip spence

In my first post of the Day I mentioned a second reason for revealing:

Right, second reason...and I have the super secret special wolhuncentler role

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Was hoping that she'd understand what I was trying to do is and stay hidden, or stay hidden because she'd deem it wiser as it long seemed, but it is understandable that she didn't in the end...

Originally Posted by skip spence

Yes, I wanted the real hunter to reveal herself, if only for me, so our chances of getting a wolf toDay would increase.

Wait, what? I sense a contradiction here. So you wanted her to stay hidden, but also to reveal?

This really doesn't help you case, Skippy.




Also, excuse me while my brain explodes.


edit: x-ed with Greenie

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Wait, what? I sense a contradiction here. So you wanted her to stay hidden, but also to reveal?

Not a contradiction. I immediately understood that Wilwa was the hunter judging by her behaviour after my fake-reveal. That's what I mean by revealing to me. I also felt that an immediate open counter-reveal would be okay (though less preferable) as we then would get a known innocent, and I hoped that you would believe my explanation too.