Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets?

*likes this plan*

Originally Posted by Loslote

But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Sounds reasonable, but what do we really learn from it? If half the village said, "I think Lottie is the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil should try to drive her out tonight!" and you were still alive the following day, how can we tell Bombadil chose you and not someone else? We'd still keep arguing about whether you're the BW or not.

The BW can afford to be opportunistic and side with whomever she thinks benefits her the most. However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

That's a good point. We can of course hope that the BW can spot impersonating attempts and, in her pride, stuns the person in question as a punishment.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts. I have no reason not to believe we can't catch the BW, but yes the wolves & cobblers should still be our priority.

Originally Posted by Greenie

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers

I like this game! Everyone wants to talk about the cobblers!

Originally Posted by Greenie

and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together.

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.
But yes I agree with Greenie that the risk of getting a big baddie team is pretty high, and that's why we definitely shouldn't ignore the cobblers either. They are at their most dangerous when they have a way to find/contact the wolves.

As for Butterbur, the longer he stays alive the better. Of course his death is good for us even early in the game, but the wolves' missing a kill means much more later on when there are fewer people alive.

[Volo]

Thanks for the answer, Agan.

[Aganzir]

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Regarding TBW, who I can't say I'm surprised to find the talk of the Day: yes, it's not that important to get him at this stage.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind? Do we really think we could feel confident enough that a given player was displaying the first kind, rather than the second or third?

I agree with both of these. If we somehow figure out who the BW might be we should leave it to Tom, that is his purpose and then we won't lose the lynch. But the problem is figuring out who the BW is in the first place. See other roles we can figure out, Gifteds might leave hints to the village, Cobblers will leave hints for the wolves, Wolves will have connections to each other or just do things that seem ungenuine, there are ways to figure out who they are. But the BW isn't connected to anyone, and they don't have to leave hints for anybody, so essentially they will act the same way as an Ordo, they want all the Wolves dead anyway (though they also want all of us dead too eventually). They are almost completely unbiased so they will be hard to spot. Which leads me to this:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Bad idea. First of all if he chooses an Ordo they won't know they were chosen since they don't have to do anything at Night, and basically if he chose a Gifted that's a Gifted revealing themselves (the Wolves will know they aren't one of them so they either have to be Ferny, Tom or one of the Gifteds). And a Wolf is unlikely to step forward and say it was them, that's too much attention on them.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

I don't think this is a good idea either. I think we'll just end up wasting a bunch of time trying to find the BW when we should be focusing on the Wolves, and having to do a second set of votes will cause a lot of confusion. I think we should trust Tom with this, and even if we know that someone isn't the BW there are still alot of things they could be, so it really isn't worth taking so much time focusing on him.

So basically I think we should forget about him for the moment, if the Seer comes forward and know who he is then we should give Tom a chance to go for him so we don't waste a lynch, if Tom is dead or something then we definitely go after him, but until then it'll be really hard to figure out who the BW is, and we could end up wasting a lot of time on him (when the Wolves, and Cobblers even, are a bigger threat).

Now the Cobblers. Ferny has his special little power (did he get a spy last Night?) and will want to leave hints of some sort so that the Wolves don't kill him, and Goatleaf will want to leave hints so that the Wolves don't kill him and so that Ferny can find him. So if they get too obvious we might be able to spot them. And I think after the way the last game went it's agreed that if we have an idea who a Cobbler is, we lynch them, none of this let them be stuff. Oh, and no ordo should false reveal as a Gifted...just saying.

x'ed with a bunch