Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Pitchwife]

D1
Agrees with Volo that BW would be more honest in her suspicions than wolves, having no knowledge of others' roles, hence hard to catch. Wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, concerned about cobblers and wolves working together because of Ferny's spying abilities. Doesn't like Eomer's and Glirdan's votes, they're too easy. OK with Nog, bad feeling about me for thinking too much from the wolves' POV. Votes Glirdan, because his random vote is excellent wolf-cover. (All fair enough for D1; I disagreed with her concentration on cobblers over the BW at the time, but it was an attempt to broaden the discussion, in so far OK.)

D2
Feels better about me, doesn't like the Aganwagon, is torn about Agan herself but thinks we have better options. Answers me about holes in Nog's arguments against Agan, Nog just doesn't look wolvish. Questions Eomer's and Form's votes: why does entertaining trump useful, and both too easy. We shouldn't focus on the BW, but it's OK to discuss whom the wolves might have targeted. Doesn't think Nog looked Seer-like. No vote. (No strong opinions or suspicions on anybody, but still good enough, I think.)

D3
Questions Form's quietness and vote. Paranoid that Form, Kath and Eomer could be wolves together. Questions Agan's reason to vote Volo 'for being weird', when he always is, then agrees she had a pretty sensible reason, i.e. that Volo suspected Agan for not suspecting Greenie.
A list: pretty much undecided, confused or no idea about most people; not surprised if Eomer is a wolf; both pro and con wolf points about Kath, namely she voted on principles instead of suspicion, which she could have done both as an innocent and as a wolf (she wavers a lot on this); slightly worried by Lottie but has nothing on her; sally's D1 vote not fabulous; feeling OK with Shasta; wilwa seems genuine.
Analyses TEW: his flip-flopping not evil in itself, but doesn't like his dropping earlier suspicions without explanation; not sure a wolf-TEW would be so openly inconsistent.
Could vote Eomer or TEW, Agan innocent, Shasta and Kath seem genuine but she's not certain, at a loss with Zil; quarrel between Agan and sally makes her feel worse about both; votes TEW in spite of his earlier doubts: his inconsistency too off to be genuine, and he's an unhelpful submarine.
(One thing I noticed about her that Day is the amount of uncertainty, flipflopping and maybe-maybe not in most of her posts. Could be a clueless ordo, could also be a wolf avoiding to take a clear stance or more likely a cobbler who doesn't yet know whose side to take. Her tone, however, doesn't really ring false in my ears.
About the vote - what I said about Lottie yesterDay also applies to Greenie, and as we know now Lottie was innocent, it makes me wonder whether Greenie may be, too, so I wouldn't condemn her on that alone.)

D4
Shasta: intends to vote him 'unless something even more drastic turns up', because it's a clear lead from the Seer, but we shouldn't talk about him all Day. sally's Agan-crusade not making sense; guesses sally is Ferny and has found Agan innocent, but not sure if that makes sense; sally's behaviour untypical for her innocent self and too attention-seeking for a wolf or BW.
Votes Shasta.
(Shasta and the sally-Agan thing were the big topics of the Day, and while everybody discussed the former, few people commented on the latter, so that would speak in her favour.)

D5
Doesn't get Agan's point that Shasta's comment linking himself and Nerwen was weird or suspicious. (I don't quite, either.) Still musing what made sally go so heavily after Agan. Agrees with Eomer to leave Lottie alone because TEW dreamed her innocent. Her intuition says to vote someone who isn't considered otherwise, e.g. Nerwen or wilwa, but she won't, having nothing on Nerwen and thinking wilwa innocent. (An odd remark - if she had no real suspicion of either, where did that intuition come from?)
Her big point yesterDay was that Shasta suspected both Agan and Eomer a lot but never voted either; this could be wolf-on-wolf, though probably not with both, hence maybe with neither. Shasta's connection to Agan looks worse, though Agan looks more innocent otherwise; Eomer more likely a wolf, more likely to be lynched, and something hasn't been right with him all the game, therefore she votes him. (Note how she first brings up this point against Agan and Eomer, then immediately questions it, but ends up voting Eomer nevertheless 'because he's more likely to be lynched' - rather bandwagony. I'm worried by how immediately Form latched onto this point, but that's rather a point against Form than against Greenie herself.)

Conclusion so far: Hard to say. Again, what most hits my eye is a lot of uncertainty and then jumping to conclusions in the thoughts leading up to her votes on D3 and D5 (at least it looks to me that way). If she's a confuzzled ordo I can totally sympathize with that, though it could of course be a mask... Still I have to say she sounds honest to me.
What mainly stands out from this is how she was mostly unsuspicious of Agan on D1 and 2, convinced of her innocence on D3, took her side against sally on D4, suddenly started suspecting her on D5 but still thought her more innocent than Eomer. If Agan should be a wolf, I could imagine Greenie as her packmate doing some passing wolf-on-wolf to cover that she was actually focussed on lynching Eomer.

[Pitchwife]

Oops, I totally failed to notice Form and Kath had voted before my first post.

I came out of yesterDay thinking loads of Agan's innocence for her attempt to save Eombadil of the Yellow Boots (and wishing I'd had sense enough not to ruin it), let's see whether that holds. At the time of her vote, the tally was Eomer 3 votes, me and Agan herself 1 each, with Eomer, me and Kath still to vote. Both Eomer and Agan had been suspected by Greenie and Form. Eomer thought Agan innocent and was unlikely to vote her (unless forced to in self-defense), but if both Kath and me had voted Agan, she could still have ended up being tied with Eomer and lynched by coin flip (assuming Agan and Kath aren't wolves together). Where Kath's vote would go seemed pretty uncertain, and I had expressly said that I was still trying to figure Agan out. In this situation, Eomer was her natural ally - hence my paranoia before DL that one of them was manipulating the other (and possibly me and Kath too) to sacrifice Form and save themselves; and Agan wouldn't have wanted to put him into a position where he might turn against her to save himself, with the danger of me and Kath following suit.
The problem is, all this equally applies to an innocent Agan. All that's conclusive is that if Agan's a wolf, Kath can't be and vice versa, for in this case Agan could have counted on Kath to save her in any case and would have had no reason not to simply vote Eomer (except that saving an innocent would make her look good, but I think it's a little late in the game for that).

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I came out of yesterDay thinking loads of Agan's innocence for her attempt to save Eombadil of the Yellow Boots

That's exactly the reason I wanted to save him (or, part of it). When I reread his posts yesterday, the one comment that had earlier struck me as Wightish (about leaving Nog for Tom and ignoring him until that) made me stop and think, "it would really make the most sense for the (dead) BW - or Tom himself to say so." That combined with the fact that three people seemed to want to lynch us both, and suddenly he didn't look half so bad anymore... Although I wasn't sure of it and was afraid I was reading too much into it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Agan

Now I'm somewhat worried about almost everyone seeming to be somewhat suspicious of Form... Are we really onto something there, or are the wolves trying to get us to lynch an innocent him? Although it might even be worth it to lynch a suspected fellow(/cobbler) in order to look better yourself...

Hm, I don't know. If we lynch a wolf toDay, it'll be 1 wolf + Ferny against 2 ordos toMorrow; if we lynch Ferny, it's 2 wolves vs 2 ordos. Either way, there's still a chance for a village win by coin-flip, if the 2 ordos vote together for the wolf (not that this is very likely to happen, the way things are looking). If we lynch an ordo toDay, on the other hand, it's curtains for the village. I wouldn't want to jeopardize that, if I were a wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Hm, I don't know. If we lynch a wolf toDay, it'll be 1 wolf + Ferny against 2 ordos toMorrow; if we lynch Ferny, it's 2 wolves vs 2 ordos. Either way, there's still a chance for a village win by coin-flip, if the 2 ordos vote together for the wolf (not that this is very likely to happen, the way things are looking). If we lynch an ordo toDay, on the other hand, it's curtains for the village. I wouldn't want to jeopardize that, if I were a wolf.

No - if we lynch a wolf, it'll be 1 wolf + Ferny against 3 ordos; if Ferny, 2 wolves against 3 ordos (so they'd just have to get an ordo to vote for another ordo, just like today) - while if we lynch an ordo, we only stand a chance if the wolves kill the cobbler.

So it would be better for them to lynch an ordo, but if a wolf is under heavy suspicion, I'd say it's worth it to lynch them - after all, it'd only mean one extra day of survival to the remaining wolf who'd then (probably) look a lot better.

However, the innocents are still a majority in the village... So Form being suspected by many doesn't yet make him an ordo.

[Aganzir]

Anyway I might as well vote now.

++Formendacil

For the simple reason that I suspect him the most. If he's innocent it doesn't matter anymore, the wolves can choose if they want to lynch him or me... But I'm hopeful.

[Aganzir]

Okay Greenie just called to let us know that her computer isn't working at all. She said she'll call me again later (about 15 minutes before the deadline) and tell who she'll vote.

Right now it's
Form - Agan
Kath - Greenie
Agan - Form

Left: Greenie, Nerwen, Pitch, wilwa

Is anyone else but Pitch here?

[Pitchwife]

Ah, right, I miscalculated. So the situation isn't quite as bleak as I thought, but still bleak enough.

Originally Posted by Agan

That's exactly the reason I wanted to save him (or, part of it). When I reread his posts yesterday, the one comment that had earlier struck me as Wightish (about leaving Nog for Tom and ignoring him until that) made me stop and think, "it would really make the most sense for the (dead) BW - or Tom himself to say so." That combined with the fact that three people seemed to want to lynch us both, and suddenly he didn't look half so bad anymore... Although I wasn't sure of it and was afraid I was reading too much into it.

Truth to be told, he looked better to me too, and my vote of him was entirely born out of panic that the two of you were conspiring to sacrifice an innocent Form (I could have voted you instead, as I felt you'd been buttering me up a bit too much, but that might not have saved Form). If I hadn't been pressed for time and had considered his exchange with Shasta on Day 4 some more, things would very probably have gone otherwise - like with Zil, the bad temper in Shasta's replies to him looked to genuine for wolf-on-wolf.
Which makes me frown at Nerwen's explanation of her vote in her first post toDay, and she doesn't look too shiny all in all from yesterDay - first discarding Lottie's Alpha-theory which suggested Eomer and me as likeliest wolves, then still picking Eomer from the two of us, then agreeing with Greenie's point against you and Eomer, and again picking Eomer, like she was using whatever got thrown her way to justify voting him.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

Okay Greenie just called to let us know that her computer isn't working at all.

An update: it is, after all. Now off to read what has happened while I was away, apparently not all that much - but still this situation is rather frustrating, I was supposed to have four hours before DL, I end up having half an hour. Me and a computer, the worst match ever.

[A Little Green]

I'm not entirely convinced by this Form-wagon, or the beginnings of it. Granted, he's been strange, but it doesn't look too much like wolvish strange to me if you know what I mean. I know it's a leaking argument but I would think a wolf would make more of an effort. But then again, his jump on Agan does look evil. But then again, so does Agan's sudden

Now I'm somewhat worried about almost everyone seeming to be somewhat suspicious of Form... Are we really onto something there, or are the wolves trying to get us to lynch an innocent him?

Almost like a Ferny trying to ask for the wolves' opinion on lynching Form, or a wolf washing her hands in advance (or even signalling to Ferny) - or then she is just an ordo having doubts about a lynch she is orchestrating, but the thing is, I don't like the tone of that line. Agh. I don't know about Agan.

Kath has struck me as pretty genuine too, though at this point I wouldn't be surprised if she turned out to be evil after all - I really feel like I'm being cheated royally, and Kath is really capable of that. Wilwa seems genuine too, and of her innocence I'm pretty sure - or, as sure as is possible.

Nerwen is a headache, I don't really have an argument for her innocence nor against it. Pitchwife is another such, I'd have tried for a closer look at these two but didn't have the time (thanks computer).

And I have an annoying feeling that our wolves are among these last four, with possibly even a Ferny-Agan leading the village and being at the center of things while the wolves slip by. But then again, I loathe voting without arguments and I truly have none on the famous last four.


EDIT: x-ed with a bunch

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

my vote of him was entirely born out of panic that the two of you were conspiring to sacrifice an innocent Form

Awww, poor Pitch!
(I have a feeling I say this quite often these days.)

I felt you'd been buttering me up a bit too much

Hey I don't think I've been buttering you up! At least, I should have no reason to do so.

Which makes me frown at Nerwen's explanation of her vote in her first post toDay, and she doesn't look too shiny all in all from yesterDay - first discarding Lottie's Alpha-theory which suggested Eomer and me as likeliest wolves, then still picking Eomer from the two of us, then agreeing with Greenie's point against you and Eomer, and again picking Eomer, like she was using whatever got thrown her way to justify voting him.

To be honest, I don't think Lottie's Alpha theory was worth much - just because we don't know if Shasta was bluffing.
I don't know about Nerwen though... I think the most suspicious thing she did yesterday was joining the "either Eomer or Agan is probably a wolf" group.

[Pitchwife]

Form the most suspicious? Really? I'm actually inclined to think his self-esteem wouldn't allow him to muddle through like this if he's a wolf. And do we have no other options? Or could it be that you suddenly don't care that much anymore about who gets lynched?

Really, where is everybody else? I'll be seriously cross if you leave me to botch this all on my own.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Agan.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Agan

Awww, poor Pitch!
(I have a feeling I say this quite often these days.)

Hey I don't think I've been buttering you up!

This.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Form the most suspicious? Really? I'm actually inclined to think his self-esteem wouldn't allow him to muddle through like this if he's a wolf. And do we have no other options? Or could it be that you suddenly don't care that much anymore about who gets lynched?

Really, where is everybody else? I'll be seriously cross if you leave me to botch this all on my own.

Yes I'm the most suspicious of him at the moment. I don't care how much he's been posting and how negligent he's appeared - I find it quite hard to believe he'd suspect someone with so flimsy reasons if he was innocent. See what I said of him in 573. And what do you mean by saying I don't care? He voted for an innocent - if he's innocent himself, it simply doesn't matter anymore. And I rather go for my top suspect than my second or third best alternative...