WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Thinlómien]

Day1
The only one he mentions is Legate whom he votes. His comments are contradictory. ("Gotta kill someone, right? Bloodlust to sate, and all that." and "I simply see more of a wolvish look in his posts. Nothing substantial, though. Or maybe I'm subconsciously detecting a Hunter-vibe in him.")

Day2

However, they definitely want to kill the Seer, even though another will appear, because otherwise - as has happened - our seer has info on (probably) two people. Just hope dreams weren't spent on Nerwen or Sally.

The phrasing makes me quite confident he didn't dream Nerwen or Sally.

Loslote, I am most happy to assume and believe that our wonderful and clever Hunter is going to choose correctly.

That was before she came out. Now, I wonder if this means he dreamt her. Looks a little like he knew her role, whether by dreaming or guessing, that we can't know... Although later he says:

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with! If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

I would be inclined to think he wouldn't say that if he knew it was Lottie - but again the other hand, when Eomer posted this, Lottie hadn't been around for three hours, but then again, she hadn't voted and he should have thought about her being American ie around later. Gah? See how this continues...

Wilwa - sweet and innocent, seemingly designed to trick me
Lottie - willing to believe she's our hunter
Boro - very hard to tell due to lack of time - I give a pass for now
Elronhubbard - she seems fishy but it's all mysterious with her
Greenie - I always think she's evil but I guess it's possible she's not a wolf
Inzil - yeah, um, tricksssy... I'll let the Hunter decide on him
Nogrod - I've played with Nogrod many times, and he seems innocent to me
Lommy - I've played with Lommy many times and I always want to kill her
Legate - really unsure about him, could go either way
Nessa - I think she could be evil and wolvish

Most interesting, eh? Nothing very clear, except that Nessa clearly was dreamt on Night3. That means he must have dreamt Zil earlier and just kept quiet about it. This makes me think he probably didn't dream another wolf (Legate) because he would've been crazy if he had had two wolves under his belt and kept hiding and not even leaving clear hints about them. I wonder who his other earlier dream was, though. Greenie? Nogrod? The famous Lottie?

Day3

Boro's an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn't worry about Nessa, though.

Further proof he didn't dream Legatewolf. Makes me think he is quite a gambler though (see his Day1 vote).

It's my belief that yesterday was close to perfection for the villagers. I'm very glad this Heir business is out of the way.

Close to perfection? Does this mean almost perfect, like nothing went wrong? Or almost perfect in that we lost two a seer-dreamed innocent? Confused.

I tend to agree, Legate, but this happens sometimes. I'm pretty suspicious of you, by the way. But there's only one person whom we should lynch today and I've named him already, former packmate of mine - I wish Loslote had kept her sight on you!

Again, his suspicion of Legate most probably wasn't dream-based.

Wilwa - shouldn't be overlooked
Boro - quite suspicious, as usual, but not convinced
Elronhubbard - shouldn't be overlooked mk 2
Greenie - I think she's probably innocent
Inzil - obviously a wolf and must die in a gruesome fashion
Lommy - it would go against tradition to argue against her lynching
Legate - I am suspicious - reminds me of Inzi, a lot
Nessa - pure and innocent

So, like I've said, after Nessa the most probable seer dreams would be Greenie or Legate. However, I think I've basically proved it's impossible he dreamt Legate, so I'm willing to give that up. Greenie? Not sure. Compared to what he says about Nessa, though, it looks so unsure that it makes me doubtful of his dreaming her. And of all the phrasings, he chose "I think" which implies at rationality, not divine knowledge.

All I can really think of is: don't waste today's lynch. Kill Inziladun. He should have went yesterday instead of Nogrod.

A subtle hint that he had dreamt Nogrod?


Conclusions:
Night1 dream: Nogrod (had he dreamt a wolf, I think he'd have revealed given that he suggested a seer reveal and lynch or at least given a hint in case he took the knwledge to the grave with himself)
Night2 dream: Zil (ha! this makes sense now, all of it. Didn't bring the suspicion up too poiuntedly because wanted to lynch the hunter and have her take him down with herself.)
Night3 dream: Nessa (the obvious change of opinion and the phrasings, need I say more?)


edit: xed with Greenie

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Greenie

I don't think it probable that he dreamed a Legwolf. It would have been awful stupid for a Seer who has dreamed two wolves out of three to not come into the open.

Eomer is one of the few players I could see gambling that. But no need to speculate about that anymore...

edit: xed with Wilwa

[Thinlómien]

Wilwa - difficult. Not around much, kind of gives innocent vibes but then again slips under the radar.

Boro - still suspicious of him. Wondering, though. I'm kind of torn: my gut-feeling definitely does not say he's innocent, unlike most times when he is. On the other hand, he's been around so little and focused his energy on attacking me, so to be fair I think that could have blurred my perception on him. On the third hand () I think it is fairly suspicious he uses all his energy on attacking me. It wouldn't be so bad if he had good reasons, but because his reasons are pretty much grasping at straws, I think it's rather eyebrow-raising worthy that he uses his limited time only for talking about me (although maybe I should just be flattered ). All in all, 2/3 suspicion, 1/3 confusion.

Elronhubbard - hmm. Like Greenie said, she is quite quick to take back her words and rather fishy. On the other hand, she's new. Honestly no idea but I'd be still kind of be willing to give her the benefit of doubt.

Greenie - almost exactly like Wilwa. Curious about her summarising project though - it's something that takes a lot of time and I wonder if she'd bother doing it if she was a wolf. On the other hand, she could be a wolf looking for logical suspects. Not too worried about her though, especially as she did not suspect Nogrod which is something she'd probably have done as a wolf because she can always get away with that as it's a tradition.

Legate - he's been slipping under my radar for most of the game. He doesn't strike me as particularily furry but he hardly ever does even if he is a wolf. He has been considering me innocent a lot, which kind of makes me suspicious: I think he knows I'm bad at suspecting people who strongly imply they think I'm innocent. Garr. I should definitely pay more attention to him.

Nessa - our known innocent, I think. Glad to be able to discount somebody.

So:

innocent
Nessa

likely innocent
Greenie
Wilwa

unsure
Ronnie
Legate

suspicious
Boro

I'm waiting for someone to go through people's relations with Inzil for me, it will undoubtedly alter the situation somehow. If there's no incirminating evidence, though, I think I'm (again) going for Boro toDay too because he's the best suspect I have atm.

Off now for a while because I have an essay to write. Will be back.

[wilwarin538]

For both I just looked at what they said about other people, looking at what they said about game mechanics is kind of pointless.


Inzil
#29: says Lottie’s meta-reasoning about him and ED not being packmates makes her look innocent, and that ED looks a bit defensive but gets a newbie pass

#103: considers voting Nog or Nerwen, and trusts Lommy

#108: thinks Lottie is likely to be innocent, votes Nerwen, restates that Lommy looks good

#270: questions Nessa’s reasoning

So: he doesn't really say much about people or interact with many. Most of the time he just talked about the Heir business. He mentions that he trusts Lommy more than once, so I would say that makes her look better (he wouldn't be that obvious if she was a wolf). Also points out things about Lottie that he trusts, but not in the same way as he did Lommy.

~*~*~*~*~*~

Eomer

#73: votes Legate, saying “gotta kill someone, right?”

#78: says about Legate: “I simply see more of a wolvish look in his posts. Nothing substantial, though. Or maybe I'm subconsciously detecting a Hunter-vibe in him.”

(day 2)
#129: says this about the wolves: “they definitely want to kill the Seer, even though another will appear, because otherwise - as has happened - our seer has info on (probably) two people. Just hope dreams weren't spent on Nerwen or Sally”

#197: says a list of Legate’s seems a bit off

#208: a list:
Wilwa - sweet and innocent, seemingly designed to trick me
Lottie - willing to believe she's our hunter
Boro - very hard to tell due to lack of time - I give a pass for now
Elronhubbard - she seems fishy but it's all mysterious with her
Greenie - I always think she's evil but I guess it's possible she's not a wolf
Inzil - yeah, um, tricksssy... I'll let the Hunter decide on him
Nogrod - I've played with Nogrod many times, and he seems innocent to me
Lommy - I've played with Lommy many times and I always want to kill her
Legate - really unsure about him, could go either way
Nessa - I think she could be evil and wolvish

(day 3)
#236: not surprised by the Ranger save

#241: says “Boro’s an interesting one, as is Legate. I wouldn’t worry about Nessa, though.”

#253: says he’d be surprised if it hadn’t been the Seer who was protected

#255: says he’s suspicious of Legate, but that there’s only one person we should lynch today (referring to Inzil)

#259: posts the list that I quoted earlier

So: I'm still rather surprised he didn't reveal yesterDay, because he said more than once he was expecting someone too. He seemed to think that he was the wolve's target and had been protected, so that would lead me to think that he had said something the Day before that he felt made him look Seerish. I would guess that it's because in that first list he points some suspicions at Inzil (so he probably dreamt him one of the first two Nights). In that same list he is really unsure of Nessa, but then the following Day is sure of her innocence, so it looks like she was his Night 3 dream. I'm not sure who his third dream would have been. He is fairly consistently suspicious of Legate, but the way he said yesterDay that "there's only one person we should lynch today" makes me think he didn't dream Legate as a wolf, or else he would have gone after him the same way, and obviously didn't dream Legate as innocent or else he wouldn't be suspicious of him at all. Kind of a similar situation to Boro. I doubt one of them was his 3rd dream.

I just scrolled down and realised Lommy's already done this , and come to similar conclusions. I suppose Nog was a possible Night 1 dream, but it doesn't seem all that clear, obviously not a wolf or else he would have said more about it. Maybe another Gifted, didn't want to give them away? It's really hard to say.

edit: x'ed with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Right - I just figured out it's midnight soon so I'd better vote soon and go to sleep. The thing is, after a bit of analysis I think everyone could be a wolf or could not. I didn't have notes on Boro because I had already gone through him yesterDay. I'd like a new look though, might do that if I'm not feeling sleepy. For now I don't trust him.

I will definitely not vote Nessa the as-good-as-known innocent, probably not Wilwa either. Which leaves me with Boro, Hubbard, Lommy and Legate. I would be fine with any of these actually. Least maybe Lommy.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Oh wow, a lot's happened. We lost a seer and killed a wolf, so it's sort of a double-edged sword.

I am, however, glad to have my innocence reassured.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I see how you'd find me worrisome, Legate, but the reason for my non-vote was simply the confusion that Inzil raised about DL. I had hoped Shasta would be able to clear up the confusion before DL...but 'twas not to be.

I am perhaps too forgiving - I just wanted to give Zil a chance to redeem himself, but since he gave up so easily...I considered just voting for him anyway, without letting him give a proper defense, but I was exhausted that night and fell asleep before I could (sorry...11:30 for Shasta is half-past midnight for me...I think I may be getting too old for late nights).

Noted, but this is of course as well what a Wolf might have said too... the point is mainly that there was this sort of "debate" with Zil in the first place. Non-votes can of course happen, but my point was that if I look at the votes, yours (resp. your non-vote) is among the most suspicious.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

That was before she came out. Now, I wonder if this means he dreamt her.

Personally I would say so. If he addresses Lottie like this, then why would he say that if he didn't think she has anything to do with the Hunter. Of course, he might have guessed it, and not dreamed of her, but it would make a lot of sense that way, I think.

The possibility of dreaming about Nogrod is also there, although it seems that this one is far more likely, given the above.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Close to perfection? Does this mean almost perfect, like nothing went wrong? Or almost perfect in that we lost two a seer-dreamed innocent? Confused.

I would imagine simply the fact that he means that no Wolf was killed by the Hunter. And, if it was two seer-dreamed innocents, then you mean that he would have dreamed about Nog and Lottie (and thus Inzil the other Night, and no Nessa?). That sounds rather awkward to say that...

Now I want to really go through Inzil's posts myself, so will be back in a minute with that... or I hope it will be "minute"...

EDIT: x-ed with Nessa

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

And, if it was two seer-dreamed innocents, then you mean that he would have dreamed about Nog and Lottie (and thus Inzil the other Night, and no Nessa?). That sounds rather awkward to say that...

*facepalms* I originally wrote "two seer-dreamed innocents", then realised Eomer had only three dreams not four so I made a mistake so I wanted to edit it to "a seer-dreamed innocent" but somehow I managed to post it as "two a seer-dreamed innocent" which doesn't mean anything.

[Thinlómien]

1. Greenie -> Boro
"So, looks like it's going to be Boro or Legate for me toDay. I'm rather torn right now - I suspect Legate a bit more, but I might feel better voting Boro since I have actually checked his posts." ToDay she also said she thought I was the seer and I had dreamt a Borowolf.

2. Boro -> Lommy
"I still say Lommy very very over-reacting to my vote yesterday."

3. Eomer -> Zil

4. Lommy -> Boro (2)
"Greenie said Boro is fishy 'cos he suspects me everyday but for a different reason. And this Day kind of proves the point! I think Boro is overreacting, not me. Feeling threatened, eh?"

5. Legate -> Zil (2)
"Okay, I think from my part, Boro can wait."

6. Wilwa -> Zil (3) xed with Legate
"I've skimmed through people's reasoning for suspecting Boro and Inzil, and the reasons make sense to me, so I'll go for one of them (admittedly I haven't read things through very thoroughly)"

7. Nessa -> Zil (4)

Comments to follow...


edit: xed with Greenie

[A Little Green]

Hmm, I think I'm going to go for

++ Boro

I think that's my best bet toDay. Good night.