WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[satansaloser2005]

A pox on that double post. Anyway, thanks, Pop. In that case, I'll wait to do stuff until this evening. If I don't vote, blame Lottie.

*shuffles away*

[Pitchwife]

Actually, toDay startet at 10AM GMT, didn't it, so with a 36 hours Day, DL should be at 10PM GMT tomorrow evening, if I can count right. So we've got plenty of time left.
And yet there's already a vote! To me, that looks like Cailín maybe wasn't quite sure about the DL either and wanted to get a vote in just in case she couldn't come back later - so not dreadfully wolvish. (Plus, I agree that it can't harm to lynch Agan just to be on the safe side!)

I don't quite know what to make of Ozzy. I surely agree with his philosophy, but apart from that, his first post was a little, hm, lazy. OK, there's little else to do beyond stating the obvious early on Day One, but if everybody just shuts up we'll never get to discussing non-obvious things, so that's not really helping.

skip's philosophy I strongly disagree with (what, mortality is OK for the sheep but it's blasphemy to inflict it on the shepherds? Arrogance!), but he sounds reasonable enough and has a point about spreading the votes - which is very probably going to happen anyway in a village as large and diverse as hours. (Don't remind me of that Shastawagon!*shudder*)

[Rikae]

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

[Valier]

woah!!! Ok so the start time was not what I was expecting...D1 started at 4am for me. I thought that it would be starting today at 4pm my time (CST) so does this day end at 4am tonight (CST) my time? And does it continue with day starts and ends at 4am? (my time CST) Because that would definately suck!! Ok well I've had a quick skim over the posts and should be in and out today...

So far...hmm noone really stands out to me..Boro seems a little too reasonable maybe?... also I noticed this

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Valier

woah!!! Ok so the start time was not what I was expecting...D1 started at 4am for me. I thought that it would be starting today at 4pm my time (CST) so does this day end at 4am tonight (CST) my time? And does it continue with day starts and ends at 4am? (my time CST) Because that would definately suck!! Ok well I've had a quick skim over the posts and should be in and out today...

No, it should end at 4pm your time, I think.

also I noticed this I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

Agan calls certain roles 'she' habitually - the one that comes to mind is the cobbler. I haven't noticed her calling the seer 'she' before, but it seems like an Aganish sort of thing to do.

[Nessa Telrunya]

The time is now... Whatever time it currently is!

Whew, there's a nice little intro. And hopefully, as town crier, I can shed light on the situation in the same manner as my brother tradesmen. Day1 is always confusing, so I suppose I'll do some statistics.

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

So now we are at 19-5, if we count the cobbler with the wolves. If we kill a villager, it is 18-5, and 19-4 if we kill the cobbler or a wolf. But if we kill a wolf, after toNight's kills we'll be at 18-4 toMorrow, instead of 17-4. If we kill a villager, we'll be at 16-5 toMorrow. No good there.

Whew, I love math.

[Pitchwife]

It seems this mortal body gets tired and needs to sleep. See you all later!

[Kitanna]

I spent an hour on a post where I went through all the posts thus far! And I mis- typed and it's all gone. There are no words for how I feel that I can use on a family site.

So to sum up what I spent my life typing...

Rikae and Sally need to state their reasons against Pitch (and Skip in Sally's case) They made no promise to return or even explain it as a knee jerk reaction like Lottie did. A flimsy reason would do this early in game. "I suspect Kit because she drinks ginger ale." Rikae's said nothing else, but Sally has. I don't like the fact Sally has popped in a few times, but not actually said anything or promised anything for when RL allows her to contribute. I can't cast too much suspicion on her, but I'm watching her.

Pitch talks a lot in regards to suggestions made by others. Yet he has yet to really provide his own feedback. That's a little unsettling. [/serious]

So this game, based on what I've read so far, one or all of the following will happen:
-Eomer, Agan, Shasta, Pitch, Boro, Wilwa, Sally, or myself will be accused, possibly killed, based on meta game or personal vendettas
-A joke will become evidence, death follows
-One wolf will lead the bandwagon against an innocent, one will lynch a fellow wolf, or one may possibly dance on town corpses
-I will drink heavily and cry
[/shenanigans and joke]

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

I concur with calculations of our chances of lynching a wolf + there's about 4% of getting a cobb.
But Wolves kill 2 of 20. (this presumes worst case scenario) There are 3 gifted in that number = 15% of "non-wolves".
Therefore I belive, that Furries have twice 15% chance of hitting a gifted. With twice 5% chance of wasting a cobbler. This is only approximate calcul, making precise ones would be way past my abilities. I always sucked at math, but the way my calculations go, we are way more screwed, than according to yours, Nessa.

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves! Has anyone seen Shasta?

Ok, quite insane, better go to sleep.

See you later.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

Nope, not at the moment. And no, I'm afraid I never could explain Sally.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

Option 1: Pitch is being jumpy.
Option 2: Pitch is genuinely curious about being suspected by a couple of people on day 1.

The passive-aggressive phrasing makes me inclined towards option 1.

[Rikae]

Careful, Kath, we only have one retractable vote for the whole game.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought I'd be back long before I actually made it back. Pity, that.

Okay, so we have a couple things to look at. Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable. We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on. And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.

Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far). No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.

I'll be back with more.

[Boromir88]

So far those who've made some sort of initial impression as I've gone along and read...

Agan is being Agan. I thought since she has given me loads of insight into her wolvish mind (as I have given my wolvish insight to her before) maybe I'd be able to figure her intentions better. So far, this is to no avail, but if she had not thrown a random suspicion towards Lommy, and proceeded to make elaborate posts it would be a major shock. Doubt I'll ever be able to tell when Agan's what role, but as it is, she's popped into my head and thus will want to keep her around more.

Rikae for that "Mackie-pie," had me busting out laughing. I think we can solve the mystery of Rikae's role by simply asking her. Rikae-wolf?

Then I come to Mac, who I would be very very frightened of meeting again if I started calling Macki-pie, so I'm going to stick to Mac. However, can you define for me the significance of going into the drawer as opposed to up on the mantelpiece? A drawer suggests you are tucking these people away and leaving us there (what else are drawers good for, other than shoving in papers and folders when you're trying to quick clean up a room?).

Kath has made an appearance, she's really getting the hang of this whole remembering to appear Day 1, and as far as I know was not reminded day has started. (Makes me start thinking I should work on the "trying not to be the obsessive EVERYONE LOOK AT ME WEEEEE!" thing I said I would be working on. )

Pitch is an early name of who is suspicious being thrown around, I'm not seeing where the jumpiness is coming from? Looked like a random thing thrown out by Rikae and this prompts Pitch to ask for reasons. Suddenly this makes him jumpy?

Then Kitanna, Lottie, and Cailin all for mentioning me in some manner. When I revert to scanning mode, I scroll through pages to see where my name appears. So the easiest way to make an early impression/getting me to think about someone is to throw in a Boro somewhere. Doesn't have to make sense, could be like "I was thinking about wolves-strategy and...Boro looks sharp, and the wolves are going to try...wow I really like Boro's sweater-vest," and 90% chance I take notice.

Everyone else has not made an impression on me, or maybe you did and I'd already forgotten thinking about how studious and professional I'm looking at the moment.

Edit: Crossed with Lottie and Shasta

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Option 1: Pitch is being jumpy.
Option 2: Pitch is genuinely curious about being suspected by a couple of people on day 1.

Pitch's reaction seemed more like option two. It wasn't all that jumpy, just perhaps mild annoyed curiosity. I think if we're to look at Pitch, let's look at his posts prior to asking Rikae and Sally to explain. To me he seems to be speaking a lot without saying anything. Like "here I am, being helpful, but I'm really being sneaky by making noise." I believe Lottie called him "polite" (if it was infact Lottie). I don't like this polite game, if that's the best way to put it.

I'm really interested in Rikae and Sally. They've jumped out to me like Pitch has. I'd like to see something substantial from Rikae before making further comment. But as far as Sally goes, there's something about her playing. I can't pinpoint what it is that makes me uneasy. Maybe it's her silence, which has been stated as a RL issue. I best ponder on this. I hope there's more activity before I go to bed because when I wake up I have time to skim and vote.

I'll defiantly post once more before bed and then my vote post.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boro

Looked like a random thing thrown out by Rikae and this prompts Pitch to ask for reasons. Suddenly this makes him jumpy?

I only started to pay attention to the post when Rikae quoted it. Alone, I think it looked somewhat jumpy in the sense that it seemed very carefully phrased.

I find Boro deeply amusing.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Maybe it's her silence, which has been stated as a RL issue.

A silent sally is never up to anything good.

Originally Posted by BG

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)?

We wait for them to reveal and then lynch them.

Originally Posted by Inzil

And I can't even have a Guinness to help me make sense of things.

Is this because you're at work?

Originally Posted by Mac

looking out now and possibly basing suspicions and cases on it, is almost certainly going to backfire.

You're twisting my words. I never said I'd base suspicions and cases on it, what I mean is that we should make it as difficult for them as possible. They are free to do whatever they wish if we sit back and think "la la la they're not going to hint anyway!" Keep an eye out for things that seem strange.

Originally Posted by Inzil

hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

No it isn't. They have more information than we do.

I am aware I might be giving the baddies ideas. But if they haven't actually thought of this themselves before this, I dare guess they shouldn't be too difficult to catch.

Originally Posted by Boro

gifteds walk the tight rope of sending cobbler hints so the wolves don't kill them, but not looking too cobblerish where they wind up getting lynched

There are also ordos who try to help the gifteds and give trouble to the baddies by looking cobblerish.

Originally Posted by Mac

You're the first one to mention cobblers and wolves sending messages. The first point in your first post. And if you look closer at the actual statement, it doesn't even really make sense. I have you down as cobbler until I find someone better.

And? What's bad about that? If I have a point to make, why wait till post three? And what do you mean it doesn't make sense?

I don't like Mac.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate

And if she were a Wolf/Cobbler signaling to the Cobbler/Wolves, she would have actually given a more direct hint, I believe.

She couldn't be more obvious and she didn't have to be. The more direct hint won't come in bright daylight. She only needs to make sure the wolves won't misunderstand.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I meant to post again, but when I sat down to do so I had nothing new to say. But I have to go to work and I'll be there until the DL. Which means it's voe time.

++Pitch

I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all. Of course he still has 10ish hours to come back, but I don't. So going on what I have to work with now Pitch looks the most suspicious to me.

I don't have time to elaborate or dissect anyone else. Sorry.

Pitch, eh? I'm not totally comfortable with him meself, and Kit's earlier comments on Pitch are fairly consistent, but this somehow feels like an easy vote.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I see more people as "unhelpful" as Pitch. Satan, Nessa I'd say. Way I see it He's just being himself.

Satan? Always unhelpful. *nods gravely*
Round here we call that wily girl "Sally".

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

Who are you and what have you done with our beloved over-verbose Rikae?

X'd since the post I quoted, as I've not refreshed in....quite a while, actually

[Nogrod]

I thought I wrote the beginning and th ending times of D1 into like ten places + added the reminder that D1 lasts 36 hours like as many times...

Well it seems you can never give out too much info...



So this Day1 lasts for 36 hours.

It began on 10AM GMT/UTC (5AM EST)

and will end on 10PM GMT/UTC (5PM EST) tomorrow.


So you have 22 hours left of the Day.

22 hours and fifteen minutes left to be more exact.


ADD: Valier & Lottie: there seems to be also a "one hour" miss in your calculations (or then I have given you faulty information). But that is easily checked. Look at my post that starts this ongoing D1 (post #4) and see the time stamp on the top left corner. The hour that post was sent is the deadline hour. The only change is that as the D1 is exceptionally 36 hours long, the deadline for D1 is not that X AM as it reads in your screen but the same X PM tomorrow. Like I said above; about 22 hours from now.

[Macalaure]

My, my, my, what a mess here. Cobblers and wolves and chaotic hunters, people wanting to kill with their brain, people doing math (do not tempt me!)... If you think that I'm going to clean this all up you're mighty wrong. Mighty wrong!

*glares*

...

Alright, I'll do it.

Let's put all the absent ones in a box and put it in a corner. Ozban goes into the safe, since I haven't played with him yet. The feel-good ones (Boro, Skip, Legate, Lommy, Sally) go into the drawer over there. The ones who haven't said much of consequence yet (Shasta, Lottie, Nessa, Inzil, Valier) go on that (rather big) shelf over the drawer.

Is anybody going to help me with this?

...

*sigh*

The suspicious ones go in the oven to roast:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's more than likely that the wolves and the cobbler try to identify each other as soon as possible

Radar make *bling* (remembrance of a game of old)

Pitch's "on the one hand - one the other hand - I don't know" reply to this doesn't look good either, if you ask me. Compare it to skip's straightforward logic.


Finally, Cailín and Rikae get the nice place on the mantelpiece for putting their suspicion and vote in the right place. The safe with Ozban goes on the mantelpiece, too.


edit: Kitanna gets a place on the mantelpiece, too, for putting tons of good points into a concise post. There's not enough of that.

Originally Posted by skip

The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed.

This makes the seer extremely identifyable by the wolves.

*puts skip in the oven and turns up the heat*

[skip spence]

This makes the seer extremely identifyable by the wolves.

*puts skip in the oven and turns up the heat*

Haha, thank you for that.

I disagree with you that a measure of carefulness would reveal the Seer in such a large village (or even in a small). And I'm not saying the Seer shouldn't suspect someone at all unless he/she is sure, only that the Seer at this point shouldn't strongly accuse one specific person in the instance he or she happens to get killed because that is very risky. When Shasta was the Seer in that already mentioned game, we foolishly killed him, and then proceeded to almost unanimously lynch an innocent the following Day - I believe it was Pitch) - because Shasta seemed to come after him strongly and we though he was a dreamed of wolf. It was horrible.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitch

To which I'd like to add, No BlindGuardianing either, please. She's been the default D1 lynch in her last two games, I'd be very wroth to see that repeated without very good reasons.

So if she turns out to be a wolf, I know who to look at.

Originally Posted by Pitch

xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.

I would poke some fun at one Bill Ferny here (not you wilwa) but I don't want to give anyone ideas.

Originally Posted by Pitch

On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure.

You can blame me for that because it was originally my suggestion. I semi-regret it now, just like I regret opposing Lommy who said the ranger should get two saves as long as the wolves get two kills (this took place somewhere else than the admin thread).
However I'm pretty sure we are going to see hinting. I've done it before and the village didn't pay any attention to me, and at least I intend not to be so careless. It's an entirely different matter how easy it is to spot, but however careful they are, in the long run we should be able to see connections.

Originally Posted by Pitch

But it's not like an open Seer reveal is the only way to catch a wolf, so we should all do our best and not rely on the Seer to risk their neck for us.

I know and I'm not asking the seer to reveal early just for the general good (because no one wants to sacrifice herself just like that)... But hypothetically if we lynch an innocent each day and the wolves kill two a night, it's going to be 5-10 (I count the cobbler as a wolf because the risk is high they manage to identify each other and can therefore vote more or less together) at the beginning of day 4. That isn't too bad yet, but the seer can't really afford to die without leaving hints (which is risky too because it will lead the wolves to her quicker, etc etc).

Originally Posted by Pitch

The question is, what conclusions should we draw from this once we manage to lynch our first wolf?

I think normal wolf behaviour rules also apply to them this time. Yeah they have more to lose by lynching one of their own, but they might still do it. So I don't think we can draw any conclusions whatsoever, and least of all that we should draw conclusions from it.

Ozban but day 1s are fun! And if you dare to vote for me I'm going to burn all your blackberries once I get out of here!

I have nothing against voting for a quiet player today if I don't have a better idea, just because I dislike both quiet wolves, gifteds and ordos.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Because I know she can take it and I owe her one anyway.

Actually no, we were even before you did that... You lynched me in Dueling Wizards 2.

Originally Posted by Lottie

so I don't know what a Wolín looks like.

Even scarier than Cardo.

I like Rikae. Not that it makes her innocent.

Originally Posted by Val

I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

Yes. I dreamed of her and found out she's the seer.
Anyway for me everyone is a she until proven otherwise.

I don't know what to make of Nessa's maths... On the one hand it makes me slightly uneasy (you'd think a baddie had more of a reason to know where exactly she stands), on the other it's good to know how many innocents we can afford to lynch without being in serious trouble (one of my favourite wolf strategies is to give the villagers a false sense of security by being strongly yet discreetly of the opinion we can check out yet another quiet/enigmatic person, and another, and another, until it's too late).

Originally Posted by Ozban

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves!

I don't think I like this plan. :P

I also like Kitanna, which doesn't mean that she's innocent though.

Originally Posted by Mac

Radar make *bling* (remembrance of a game of old)

Hey what's suspicious about that? They have the means to do it, and the only thing we can do about it is to try to make it as difficult for them as possible.

Originally Posted by Mac

Cailín and Rikae get the nice place on the mantelpiece for putting their suspicion and vote in the right place.

I would've thought this was sarcasm, but then he also puts Kitanna on the mantelpiece. What's up Mac?

[skip spence]

For such a large village it's eerily quiet, isn't it?

Backtracking a bit since there's precious little new.

Originally Posted by Agan

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Yep, the double Night-Kill sucks for us, and getting rid of it is imperative. I'm not sure if I'd like to risk the Seer for it - as long as the Ranger is still alive, maybe it's worth it. But it's not like an open Seer reveal is the only way to catch a wolf, so we should all do our best and not rely on the Seer to risk their neck for us.

I'd agree with Pitch here. The Seer is our strongest piece, our Queen, and should not be sacrificed lightly. It's up to the Seer to decide what to do if he/she catches a wolf or already has done so, but if it were me, I'd wait with the open reveal unless I faced the gallows. The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed. If we lose the Seer and the trail points to an innocent, we're in big trouble.

Need to sleep soon. I probably won't return until close to the DL.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Who are you and what have you done with our beloved over-verbose Rikae?

Something like this:
IRQL_NOT_LESS_OR_EQUAL

I can't make it out... must be some kind of code or something. If only I had the time, but alas, that's just what we don't have, isn't it? A few millennia just isn't enough.

And Mackie-Pie, I haven't voted yet. And could you take these glasses into the kitchen for me? While you're there, check whether those pastries - er, players - in the oven are done...

[Inziladun]

Melkor, thou art not the King of Arda, and this is not thy realm. Manwë (the Vala, not the player ), shall not forsake us, and under the dominion of the One, those faithful to him shall yet triumph.

In other news, as soon as I have a moment to actually look at what people have said, I'll be back with more.

x/d with Rikae