WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Boromir88]

I'm going on a dream leave of absense Agan. Sorry, apparently my talents are not appreciated and I should be on to more werewolf killing.

I don't like the look of Skip's "I'm the hunter, oh nope...kidding. It's a joke." I was in the game he's talking about, was the cobbler, and final day before wolves win. I thought for sure he was a wolf, because once wilwa revealed as the hunter, I couldn't imagine a scenario where an innocent would do that. I think it was more of a desperate act to try to prove his innocence, since he was almost lynched the day before, and if a wolf wasn't lynched it was game over. This one looks like a flippant act that just led to brief unnecessary confusion.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy.

Feel ??? about -

ElRonHubbard - What I've seen looks decent, but there's not a lot of it. Need more.
Valier - Lots of froth and bubble - seems opinionated, but has yet to take any real stances on anyone that I can see.
Skip - Need to see more. The only thing that comes to mind when I try to recall Skip is his recent Hunter-joke, and being unmemorable is always a bad sign.
Greenie - ???
Blind Guardian - I don't really like BG's playstyle of "oh crap I'm busy let me vote real fast", but then, I never have. It's not really indicative of alignment.
Manwe - His one post looked good, but I need more than one post to go off of.

Feel slightly bad about -

Boro - Appeared to distance himself from Pitch after Mac's post.
Pitch - Groupthink and vibe, I'm sorry to say. I need to look at Pitch more in-depth - until I do, while I do feel slightly bad about him, he's in no danger of my vote.
Nessa - While I don't think she looks fur-and-fangs evil, there are some points against her, like the possible reason for the Ozban kill.
Wilwa - Her earlier post regarding her vote jumped out at me as being 'desperately calm', and yes, I know that's an oxymoron, but it just read to me as someone who expected to be asked about her vote and went 'oh crap', so prepared in advance.

Feel moderately bad about -

Lottie - What I didn't like about her Day 1 hasn't changed - she apparently still doesn't have any real suspicions, which isn't like her at all.
Inzil - Something about the way he's acted toDay just screams 'double-bluffing wolf'.

Feel no-nonsense bad about -

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

[Rikae]

PeeWee.

First post - 7 - Some nice IC.
9 - replying to Legate. Seems to be a bit too much attention to it; this is a subtle thing, and he's still half IC,
but I began to got a talking-just-to-talk feel from him here which is always a red flag to me.
15 - More bantery, stating-the-obvious-y talking in order to show he's present, as far as I'm concerned. Discussing
the cobbler with Agan. This whole "cobbler and wolves know something" business strikes me as odd... the only way
that knowledge is likely to come out is in wolf-on-wolf or wolf-cobbler sacrifice, something pretty unlikely early
in the game. It's the kind of point that seems to make sense, and offers opportunities for suspicion pretty much
anywhere, but doesn't actually hold much water. Pitch's response to Agan seems to be a reasonable one, for the most
part:

Well, the wolves obviously know more than we do, but the cobbler not so much, as of now - so xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.
On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going
to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure...

Could be as easily an innocent finding the holes in Agan's point, or a wolf hoping the cobbler will act
sensibly.

Pitch then argues with Agan about the seer revealing. Again, makes sense, seems a bit too easy. If Agan is talking
nonsense, why not suspect her for it? It's all very calm and balanced. I admit, I have a prejudice against calm,
balanced posting. It is most in the wolves' interests not to create waves and the consequent backlash. The 'sucks
for us' bit especially disturbs me, as it seems most innocents probably wouldn't even think of adding the 'for us'
bit unless they were unusually self-conscious.
Some very general what-wolves-might-do talk with Boro. Again, safe.

18 - Cailin approves of Pitch's politeness. I'm not sure why she mentioned it in the first place. Something is odd about
this, somehow - as though she is mentioning him just to mention him? A very vague feeling, though, and there is nothing
inherently wrong with approving of politeness, of course. She votes for Agan.

22 - Pitch explains Cailin's vote. Also odd, since the only comment on it was Lottie, who thought it wasn't great but
didn't find it wolfish. Says Oz's post is easy. Funny, considering I would say that about Pitch's posts as well.

23 - I say Pitch makes me uneasy. Which he did. I was primarily interested in seeing his reaction to that statement
as well as others' reactions to my lack of explanation. If my intuition was correct, I thought I might play a decoy-seer,
and if not, wolves might latch on to it, or go after me, in hopes of a bandwagon.

27- Pitch wants an explanation from me as well as Sally. This is perfectly reasonable. Not so sure about the wording, which
once again feels very careful.

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

29 - Pitchwife retires with IC banter. Nothing wrong with it.

37 - I refuse to explain, waiting for further reactions.

41 - Agan points to Pitch's "passive-aggressive phrasing". I'm not sure if I agree. It was, a bit, but it is also
to be expected that people will ask about suspicions against them, especially when two come up suddenly without
explanation.

43- Shasta distrustful of Pitch "bandwagon" though he doesn't like his "havens forfend" remark.

44- Lottie can see where people are coming from with Pitch, but wouldn't have thought of it on her own and therefore
doesn't want to point fingers at him. This is doubly odd, considering that there is a lot of unease, but not actual
arguments, about Pitch, and that she seems to be covering all her bases here in a fishy sort of way.

45 - Boro: Pitch hasn't been particularly jumpy, not sure where it's coming from.

46 - Kit: Pitch isn't jumpy, but does speak a lot without saying anything.

48 - Inzil says part of Pitch's second post feels forced (I agree on this, it does) and agrees on "no Blind Guardianing" -
which is a fine point in itself, but in Pitch's post added to what I felt was its safety and obviousness. Inzil
talks about the wolves having to narrow down the potential cobblers through hints, and the cobbler having to hint to
avoid being killed. I missed this before, but it makes me feel better about Inzil, as it seems he's trying to prevent
the cobbler and wolves from using Mac & Agan's plan (if they will forgive me for calling it that).

55- Nessa saying it's reasonable for Pitch to want answers, and that I seem to know something "we don't". Agree on
Pitch, I'm still not sure what she's driving at with me. That I'm a wolf who knows Pitch isn't? I would know that about
every non-wolf in the village, and he could still be the cobbler. That I'm a cobbler? Then I wouldn't know anything.
That I am the cobbler and going to hint Pitch to the wolves at night? That would be a pretty bad plan, as they would
probably take him for the cobbler. That I'm impersonating a seer? Innocents have reason to do that. In short,
the comment is either not fully thought out, or an attempt at casting suspicion (or suspected giftedness?) on me without
putting herself on the line. I'm leaning toward the "not thought out" option, though. It's a risk I took by being vague,
and I expected it.

58 - I'm becoming more OK with Pitch. Considering the timing, I guess I can see now why Nessa thinks her suspicion of
me is responsible, but it's prompted by Inzil's "forced", which struck me as opportunistic, and Lottie's "seeing where people are coming from" which, as I said, doesn't make sense.
This is the sort of circling-buzzard behavior I was looking for, even more so than Nessa's suspicion toward me.
On second look, Agan, who gave a bit of a "rubbing hands together evilly" feel in 41, looks even worse.

63 - Kit votes Pitch for trying to look helpful.

65 - Mac agrees with Kit on Pitch.

66 - Oz says Pitch is being himself, Nessa and Sally are more unhelpful.

67 - Oz questions Nessa on her post number 55.

68 - Legate doesn't think Pitch is Mr.Agreeable, nor does he do anything that "smells of Wolf" (if I read this
correctly). I'm really not sure why he thinks this. Discusses wolf-on-wolf voting with Pitch, reasonable.

69 - Agan acting oddly here, as if she's trying to pass off responsibility for her Pitch comments to me (which would
have been the reason it would have tempted a wolf in the first place: I started it)

I only started to pay attention to the post when Rikae quoted it. Alone, I think it looked somewhat jumpy in the sense that it seemed very carefully phrased

71 - Elrond's Daughter worried about Pitch's "list of words" to make it seem like he's contributing.

72 - Inzil thinks Kit's Pitch vote is an easy vote.

73 - Greenie finds Nessa's Pitch comments odd, my backing off innocent unless I thought my work was done.

77 - Wilwa defending Pitch, I think a bit over-the-top, like a wolf trying to wash her hands of a bandwagon.

80 - I clarify about Pitch. (I overlooked Agan's prominence in going after Pitch yesterDay - I
was focused on Inzil and Lottie).

82 - Pitch talking about my suspicion bearing fruit, me "backpedaling", and so forth. A bit too easy to see my
behavior as wolfish. Indeed. Of course, more people have defended him than suspected him at this point, if I'm
correct, but being suspected is no fun even for innocents, especially on Day one, so I'm not sure this post is
especially bad. He sees what I was doing, at least, which shows a certain detachment. This is good.

83 - Wilwa questions me suspecting her for agreeing with me. I suppose it might seem ungrateful of me(?) but
I do that all the time. Anyone can express pretty much any opinion; I tend to think how and when they express it tells
more about their motives than what it is or who they agree with.

87 - Eomer says Wilwa is "trying too hard" with the Pitch-wagon stuff.

89 - Wilwa explains the Pitch-wagon. I like this, it's sensible enough. I suppose I can see why an innocent might
get over-the-top trying to avoid what they see as a misguided Day one lynching. I've done it myself. Why, then,
did Wilwa's initial "Pitch wagon" post bother me? Looking back, I guess it must be the wording: "I refuse to jump on..."
as though she is being compelled to by someone. There is less of a "this wagon is wrong because..." and more of a
"look at me, I'm not a part of this!" feel to it.

95 - Boro talking about Pitch as Mr. Agreeable. Not sure where this comes from, since that doesn't seem to be the reason for most of
the suspicion.

96 - Pitch - Lommy and Greenie too quiet, Mac too focused on looking for the cobbler.

97 - Sally - Pitch too smooth.

98 - Inzil unsure about Pitch, will let that wagon pass him by.

101 - Pitch disagrees with Sally - wants to know what is bizarre about Kit and thinks Sally is twisting Skip's words.

In this and Pitch's previous post I get a sense of trying to deflect attention, without much actual wolf-hunting beyond that.

110 - Pitch suspects ED because her only post was basically agreeing with people and latching on to Pitch-suspicion.
(Which is a decent point. She is flying nicely under the radar).



111- Lommy likes Pitch's posts, but he's jumpy.

114 - Pitch - Philosopher talk with Lommy.

118 - Pitch - Here comes the alternative bandwagon (Lottie).

127 - Sally votes for Pitch "for shiftiness".

152 - ED votes for Pitch. Safe... says it feels like a shot in the dark. Careful...

Day Two

183 - Pitch suspecting Nessa because she may have thought Oz was the seer, and because of her comments about
me knowing something, but dismisses this because he is not (?) her packmate and she would otherwise be a cobbler.
Sidesteps the other problems with Nessa's comment, I think. It isn't necessary that he be her packmate. I don't
actually think that Nessa, if evil, thought I knew anything at all- just that the impression I did could be used
aganst me. If she thought I actually knew something, she would more likely have night-killed me.

188 - Pitch thinks Kath is a no-trace kill, unlikely to be killed by an Inzil wolf. I think that's unlikely too,
unless Inzil's first comment toDay is a planned double bluff ("no wolf would be so openly paranoid!" type thing).

189 - Backs up Cailin's point about wolves not starting bandwagons.

200 - ED still doesn't like Pitch's "vibes".

202 - Boro defends his defense of Pitch - Mr. Agreeable business. I can't conclude anything from this - can
see it as innocentish defense, but Boro's lack of substance does worry me.

210 - Skip suggests wolf in crowd in danger of lynching, including Pitch. Feels good, however, about Pitch.

Ok, so all this hasn't really clarified my feelings about Pitch - on a scale of innocent-1 to evil-10 he's still
about a 6.5 - but it has revealed an interesting web of pro-and-anti-Pitch sentiment that encompasses pretty much
the whole village. That could be useful.

[skip spence]

As a matter of fact I gotta dash. Social duties must be fulfilled.

++Elrond's Daughter

This may seem random, and it is to a large degree, but I'd rather try a shot in the dark at a submarine at this point than at a person who's contributed more.

[skip spence]

Not that happy about Lottie's vote by the way. Seems too safe a choice.

And Rikae. Wow!

[Rikae]

I am starting to like the idea of lynching a "quiet one" toDay myself. The loud ones are so intertwined, the death of one will tell us something about others; the quiet ones not so much. The wolves seem inclined toward no-trace kills, perhaps for this reason. We would force them to kill a loudmouth and leave a trail... if we lynch an evil quiet one, so much the better, but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I will say I don't like the idea of lynching Kitanna as per my idea earlier. I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be .

[Cailín]

I am uncomfortable with Loslote's vote and I do not like how Wilwarin is abstaining at all.

Heading home now, so I will be back with my vote in a little while.

[A Little Green]

I'm sharing the computer with dear Lommie toDay, means that my participation is again somewhat limited.

Originally Posted by Mac, to Agan

Interesting. When I accused you of doing exactly this, you didn't understand what I was talking about. Then you say this to Sally. I think if I had actually caught you doing this, you would not direct people's attention to somebody else doing it after "playing dumb" first. You're off the cobbler-hook for now.

Funnily enough, the very post you are talking about here struck me as another cobbler hint.

Originally Posted by Agan

Now, I'm going to divide people in groups based on what they said of me yesterday.

Only slight egoism, my dear?

No real hinting because the baddies didn't yet have any information that we don't. And I suppose that's fair enough, although I would never ever had said so, regardless of my role (innocent me doesn't want to give the baddies ideas while an evil me doesn't want the attention).

For some reason I'm not buying that either, darling.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I might not be opposed to lynching, say, Greenie, whom I can never read, if a submarine is what we want. Plus I know how dangerous Mufasa can be .

Shame on you, son. And Simba was more dangerous than Mufasa anyway.

List coming..

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I am starting to like the idea of lynching a "quiet one" toDay myself. The loud ones are so intertwined, the death of one will tell us something about others; the quiet ones not so much. The wolves seem inclined toward no-trace kills, perhaps for this reason. We would force them to kill a loudmouth and leave a trail... if we lynch an evil quiet one, so much the better, but if we lynch a good quiet one, at least the remaining innocents will be the more helpful ones, alive or wolf-killed.

I'm not in favor of voting a submarine just for the heck of it. There are already three innocents gone. Going after a quiet player whom one has nothing else on is all right for a Day 1 tactic, but I'd prefer voting for someone who actually looks suspicious, if most don't want to vote Kit.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'm not in favor of voting a submarine just for the heck of it. There are already three innocents gone. Going after a quiet player whom one has nothing else on is all right for a Day 1 tactic, but I'd prefer voting for someone who actually looks suspicious, if most don't want to vote Kit.

There are submarines who look suspicious, though. Actually, being a submarine is in itself suspicious, but beyond that, there are ED and Lottie. Given a choice between a suspicious loud (in this case, Pitch) and quiet one, I'd go for the quiet one toDay for the reasons I mentioned.

Shasta, I wouldn't normally consider Greenie quiet... hm?

Definitely opposed to voting Kit.