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Old 01-30-2011, 12:53 AM   #1
the phantom
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Eye

No posts at all? Well, this was a pointless check in.

Bed now. I'll try my best to be around in the second half of the day.
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Old 01-30-2011, 01:19 AM   #2
Shastanis Althreduin
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Well, from what I know....









Manwe was not a wolf. (I'm posting from my phone, sorry for lack of bold.)


Nogrod. Every indication is that of cobblery, even io to his dead vote. He was trying to convince me that he's the Seer, by saying that he just failed to notice Agan's trick and all the posts that came after referencing it (and there are quite a few, I made a list, including Nogrod's own posts interspersed in.) so I believe Nog to be a Nobbler.

More later. Oh, and the way Rikae worded what she said in response to me asking about BG makes it look like BG was a wolf, but it depends on whether Rikae regards the alignment of cobblers as innocent or wolfish. All she would say is that BG's role went to someone of the same alignment whose firmer role she thought less important.
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Old 01-30-2011, 03:27 AM   #3
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My dearest! You've returned! Come to my– oh wait, I'm going to have to duel Agan, now, aren't I?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beranzir
I am interested in the reactions to Nog's reveal, especially after I claimed to be Lúthien, but that will have to wait.
I might have a look at that myself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beranzir
Also, if we want to come up with a way to send information from Mandos to here, it would be a good idea to do it today.
You mean using the double-vote choice as a sort of code? It's hard to think of a way that would actually be workable– especially it seems there's now at least one cobbler in Mandos.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Lúthien
Oh, and the way Rikae worded what she said in response to me asking about BG makes it look like BG was a wolf, but it depends on whether Rikae regards the alignment of cobblers as innocent or wolfish. All she would say is that BG's role went to someone of the same alignment whose firmer role she thought less important.
Cobblers have the same alignment as wolves. If you were thinking along these lines, well, um, don't. I mean that was just Nobbler doing his job. All the same, I don't think what Rikae told you has to mean that, my heart– couldn't it equally refer to an ordo becoming a gifted?
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Old 01-30-2011, 04:11 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by Mithalwen View Post
I suppose it is safe to assume that BG was either a wolf or a gifted. Can't see it would be necesssary to change a cobbler in this game. Though if BG was a wolf I imagine that a cobbler has been upgraded. Anyway..back to sleep for a bit..
I would agree with that. Very often the Mods just scratch people if they don't have any important role. The problem is not that we don't know what BG was, the problem is now that we don't know who the person who has changed is. As it's been said, there are the two previous Days of the person's posting which now are somewhat less reliable when it comes to determining the person's role.

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Manwe was not a wolf. (I'm posting from my phone, sorry for lack of bold.)
Good, I knew I was right about him. I think that means he is innocent. (I really don't think he was a Cobbler.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
Nogrod. Every indication is that of cobblery, even io to his dead vote. He was trying to convince me that he's the Seer, by saying that he just failed to notice Agan's trick and all the posts that came after referencing it (and there are quite a few, I made a list, including Nogrod's own posts interspersed in.) so I believe Nog to be a Nobbler.
I'd assume the same, even given his behavior late yesterDay. But then I really think it was a waste to lynch him, what I was saying: now we are not going to learn for sure whether he was a Wolf or Cobbler, resp. innocent (Seer) or Cobbler, in case Cobblers count as just "non-Wolves" in Mandos. For that matter, I really think that also among those who urged for voting him, there might be Wolves/Cobblers (for the reason stated above - that's of course ruling out the unlikely possibility that if he indeed was the Seer, or the WWs thought he was, then of course the WWs would have also liked to vote him, even more). Sadly, I don't have much time toDay, but I will try to check at least the votes if I can. Okay, at least for now, the people who voted for Nog:
Before his Seer-revelation:
Greenie
Agan
Boro
Glirdan

After his Seer-revelation (now those are the ones I would definitely put under close examination, since from now on, if you voted against Nog, you basically assumed that he was a Cobbler - unless somebody proves me they thought otherwise - which, I believe, does not make much sense)
Fea
wilwa (whose vote, just from skimming through, looks more innocent to me in the sense that she was "tired" and all that)
Phantom (this one I don't like, as he was urging it really purposefully, whereas an innocent should at least ponder that it does not have much of a sense to lynch Cobbler, that's exactly what they are here for)
Lottie (who actually joined the process only a bit later, she originally did not seem very eager)
Ang (actually I am really curious about him - he initially wanted to support Nog, but only after Agan's "I am Beren/no Lúthien" thing he changed his mind, because, well, it was obvious)
Mith (the last nail)

From my other goals, I would like to take a look at those I have neglected this far as well, like Nerwen as I wanted earlier. elra's comment about Nog's revelation also looks a bit curious, need to check her too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
More later. Oh, and the way Rikae worded what she said in response to me asking about BG makes it look like BG was a wolf, but it depends on whether Rikae regards the alignment of cobblers as innocent or wolfish. All she would say is that BG's role went to someone of the same alignment whose firmer role she thought less important.
Well, that could of course be also that BG was a Gifted. Especially with the "same alignment" thing. But whatever...

Sadly, now I don't have time to look at the possible reasons for Fea's death nor anything else. I'm not sure how much time I am going to have toDay, and I might be able to appear only very late in the Day, or very briefly during the time... I'll try my best.
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Old 01-30-2011, 04:51 AM   #5
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Alignment is not the same as vote count. As a former mod myself who has faced these dilemmas in at least 2 games I know how hard it is to do and be fair -especially if you have debated pre-game about the fairest balance. Now in this game it is quite "ethical" to upgrade a cobbler to a wolf because they are same alignment and have been playing with the same aim albeit perhaps using different approaches. Nevertheless it doesn't require a volte face if an innocent were changed cursed style.

I am a bit wary of speculating the other way obviously... if BG were the hunter no real harm done, if Glorfindell well it is a pity we missed a couple of nights protection but there is no guarantee of a "save" if the true seer - since all evidence points to Nogrod having been a bit more than economical with the truth as well as OT &E. Well that is a bit of a bummer but we could be worse off since at least we know mostly about the dead and our revenants.
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Old 01-30-2011, 05:05 AM   #6
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Fea's death makes the broadly pro-phantom side of yesterday's debate look even better, I think, right?

Interesting that no one tossed a hair when Mith brought up the likelihood of some trouble involving Blind Guardian yesterday (there was a practically audible collective response of "yeah, whatever") and now a lot of people are talking about nothing else. All because of Rikae's rather dramatic footnote? It seems to me preeetty exaggerated as a line of enquiry.

I suspected Fea a bit though I never had the heart to want her dead because she was one of those lovely reminders of my retirement home days. Now she's dead I'm pretty sure she wasn't a cobbler. Surely her shoemaking techniques would've been flashier

I must say, though, I can't really endorse the advice she gave before she died. I would have much rather settled this Nogrod issue than found out about Manwe. I do think we're right, but the possibility of not being so is so awful...and the Lovers don't, after all, prove the case either way. It would just be source of way greater reassurance to me (and I think many of us)

On the other hand, I do think the signs are in our decision's favour. Nogrod's extreme fit of pique as he went down even looks a bit like an attempt to replicate Shasta's earlier one, which won him such widespread sympathy...
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Old 01-30-2011, 05:22 AM   #7
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Mind you if any wolves were around endgame last night they weren't going to go for my damage limitation exercise if BG were their absent comrade.
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Old 01-30-2011, 05:42 AM   #8
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I want a bit more gossip on (you guessed it) the Dead Thread. Don't be shy, fair Luthien; what's going on in there? Are there any weird twists you're allowed to tell us about? What's the line-up, who are the duellists and why? Is everyone sticking to their old story?
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Old 01-30-2011, 06:29 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
After his Seer-revelation (now those are the ones I would definitely put under close examination, since from now on, if you voted against Nog, you basically assumed that he was a Cobbler - unless somebody proves me they thought otherwise - which, I believe, does not make much sense)
Hmmn. It is my feeling that a cobbler posing as the Seer is still more dangerous on the Living than the Dead thread. So I'm not sure the people who voted him after that look as bad as you think. I mean, the way things were going at that time, the alternative candidate was phantom (also as a supposed cobbler.) Though, I guess it's interesting that everyone appeared to see it as one or the other. I mean– why?

I really do need to have a look at the votes yesterDay. I'm quite pressed for time, though.
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