Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

if Glorfy's alive, looking at the desperate situation and need for some type of tangible roles...now is as good of a time as any for Glorfy to step out.

What I said...


*Yells to the game-thread: "Don't listen to them Glorfindel!!!"*

Yes, we'd need her/him here, but only if we have a game to go on in the first place. And now it will only pay for the wolves to know her/his identity.

The ranger can protect her/himself to be sure, but as the wolves know s/he was protecting Mith the Night before the chances are good s/he protected her/himself last Night. So s/he woud be killable the coming Night...


Please hunter, make yourself the target and hit it right!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boro

The most manipulative and mis-leading player this entire duration has been the phantom. Lynch him, even if he may only turn up cobbler.

See the plan now?

Lynch the phantom (not the hunter), out the ranger and kill her/him at Night (not the hunter) as s/he will probably not be able to self-protect... = Wolf Victory!

[Nogrod]

Heh, I'm trying not to get too carried away with my theory - and I admit it might be wrong at least on some of the concerned - but if Ang, Boro and Elron are the wolves (and Fea the second cobbler), I'm claiming some bragging rights for this.

Anyway, when I come back I try to see this from some other angle not to get stuck with what now looks like a good theory, well decent... at least plausible. Anyway the first wholesome theory that is backed by some real "evidence".

If someone has time s/he could check whether what I said would make sense looking at the votings and the possible leering behaviour around them / saving Elron.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay. I'm going to rock some suspension of disbelief (even though I'm not a cobbler).

Nog: what do YOU think we (the Dead) should be doing right now, and what do YOU think they (the Living) should do toDay?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Nog: what do YOU think we (the Dead) should be doing right now, and what do YOU think they (the Living) should do toDay?

Well there is a simple answer to both of your questions. The problem is to be succesful with them.

We the dead should try and come up with the most accurate view of the situation there among the living as possible aka. who are the wolves and how they try to play it out as they need only two innocents dead?

The living should pull their act together and get at least one wolf on top of the lynching list (first or second most votes but not more than one vote's difference if second) - then we could try to help near the DL by giving the extravote to lynch the suspected baddie.

That should be the top priority - and the only thing that would immediately affect the game giving us more time. Otherwise we need to just pray for a hunter-kill. Sadly neither is totally under our own control: if the goodies don't give us a probable wolf for us to vote with a consequence (one added vote being enough), then no can do; if the wolves don't kill the hunter / s/he is not lynched, then no can do.


Heh, I just saw Nerwen's post... one more candidate for cobblery...


EDIT: just saw Nerwen posting a second post which looks quite reasonable... *sigh*

[Mithalwen]

I doubt the ranger would have protected themself last night assuming I was the previously protected one. HAving failed once the wolves would have wanted a certain kill especially since their target was widely spoken of as innocent. I have only once been lynched as an innocent and my voting decisions tend to be better at endgame when I have a cleared picture. Glorfy would have been certain enough I were doomed and would't have wasted a self protect.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Glorfy would have been certain enough I were doomed and would't have wasted a self protect.

Good point, that's true indeed. I didn't think about that, but it does not actually change the fact that the wolves wish to have the ranger's identity.

First of all, they might try to suggest sending the ranger to Mandos to gather knowledge via a lynch - with the false pretense that they have already bagged one wolf and that they have time for it (which they don't - even if they had bagged one wolf already, which they haven't either - compare to the speculation about it being reasonable to think they have done it already *Nerwen*), thus leaving the village unprotected for two Nights...

Or depending on the general mood, if it goes against lynching the ranger (why they haven't openly suggested it yet), the identity of the ranger known would help them determine whom s/he might protect if not her/himself... critical things if the ranger is still alive and they need a "clean shot" the next Night to win immediately.


But all this raises some doubts in me for my initial theory anyway.

So what do you think, how probable it is the innocent villagers really think they have gotten one wolf already? If they were confident about that, it would be more understandable they speculated about the ranger themselves s well (so not everyone calling for the ranger to come out would be bad per se, but only unthoughtful... although even that leaves me puzzled as to why don't they see how on the edge they are, were it that way.

Let me speculate. Looking at it that way, an innocent confident on one wolf already bagged would have it 2-6. Looking at how many have died (add the popular meme I am a cobbler & the case Legate), they'd probably think there is one cobbler left there.

So 2-1-5?

Losing two innocents before toMorrow (lynch & Nightkill) would mean toMorrow numbers would be like 2-1-3 (end of game most probably) or 2-4 (chances to play). But the ranger would be back only the Day after that... so they'd think they'd have to hang on without any knowledge for a full Day after that with either of the odds above.

As I said, quite puzzling. If an innocent thought of the odds for survival they'd need to go for a wolf and fast, even if they thought they were one wolf down. And there Boro says let's lynch the phantom even if he is just a cobbler! The "ranger method" is basically too slow now as s/he would be back there only two Days from now giving the wolves ample chances to kill people with no ranger around protecting them. And with Mith gone there is no other news the ranger might give them.

And the wolves know there are three of them so none of the above really puzzles them, but they may try to play on that.

But trying to separate possible innocent speculation from the malicious ones, what do you think - especially Mith and other "latest arrivals" - is there a feeling there that they have rid themselves of one wolf already? (I'm especially thinking about Ang here and whether I should reconsider what he said back there - needs to check it myself as well.)

[Aganzir]

Welcome Mith!

Originally Posted by phantom

We will find out about Nessa today. If she's guilty then Green, Nerwen, Phantom, or Ang will receive an extra vote.

Liar. Odd for wolf and even for non-wolf. So Green, Nerwen, phantom or Ang will receive the extra vote because Lommy wasn't a wolf - but I'm not fond of it at all... Let's see. There are eight people alive, and unless Nog or Lottie was a wolf it means all the wolves are still there. Thus if they lynch an innocent today and kill one tonight, it's 3-3 tomorrow. Which means we should probably strive to get a suspected wolf lynched instead of delivering messages... Even though it will muddy up things for the innocents. Hmm. Will have to think about it.

I am paranoid about everyone (except Shasta, Mith and Fea). Yes, even the phantom - although I'm sure he isn't an ordo. Either he's a cobbler, or he's the hunter or the ranger who wanted to stay alive as long as necessary and is now trying to get himself killed... I wouldn't put it past him to scheme like that even if it confused the rest of the village. But this time he looks much worse than when I last saw him do it.

I'm going to do some delving into the early days now.