Mandos Thread: DEAD ONLY! - WW LXXXVI

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I just read over day 2 and if I had had any doubts, I feel worse about you than ever. (But I'm so so sorry for you if you're actually the seer... )

If you are looking at those early Days blindly, what do you think you will find? Even with the knowledge I have offered it might be hard to find anythnig crucial from there - although I do encourage anyone to try.

But there are things happening now - and this is most probably the last Day of the game - so I'm wondering why do you use an hour to read D1&2 when the plots are finally being played out now?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But there are things happening now - and this is most probably the last Day of the game - so I'm wondering why do you use an hour to read D1&2 when the plots are finally being played out now?

Because I consider it worth my while, silly. I need some coherency, some background.

[Nogrod]

Where did you pull this from? I don't understand a word of it

Originally Posted by Agan

You mean, the hunter will go after Angu instead of a suspected wolf, trusting the wolves to attack her? I wouldn't do that.

Okay. I try this one more time as we seem not be talking about the same thing.

Wolves win straight if two non-wolves are the next two dead (a doublelynch toDay or a lynch and a succesful Nightkill).

Which are the obstacles: the ranger (can save someone during the Night) and the hunter (can take one of them with if lucky/good).

What have Boro and Ang been doing toDay: trying to out the hunter and the seer.

I find Ang's "hunter should reveal" the most vicious one. What would follow if the hunter revealed? The wolves would know whom to avoid killing.

If the ranger reveals the wolves know if s/he is the correct one. Then they will talk the villagers to lynch the ranger and leave the village unprotected for two Nights. And there will be no Day when the ranger could go back as the game is over.

Clear enough now?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Where did you pull this from? I don't understand a word of it
Okay. I try this one more time as we seem not be talking about the same thing.

Ahh I thought you meant Angu's reveal would have helped the wolves to avoid the hunter which made very little sense. As I see it, your questions didn't have much to do with my post that you quoted.

trying to out the hunter and the seer.

Hum?

What would follow if the hunter revealed? The wolves would know whom to avoid killing. --- Then they will talk the villagers to lynch the ranger and leave the village unprotected for two Nights.

Going by the previous assumptions (all the wolves are alive and they lynch a non-wolf), their chance of hitting the hunter is 1/4. Not bad but not that good either - and the village could do with another known innocent. And they will never ever be able to talk the village into lynching Glorfy unless I've seriously underestimated everything.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Going by the previous assumptions (all the wolves are alive and they lynch a non-wolf), their chance of hitting the hunter is 1/4. Not bad but not that good either - and the village could do with another known innocent. And they will never ever be able to talk the village into lynching Glorfy unless I've seriously underestimated everything.

I did some speculation over these issues earlier toDay - noticing how certain people started making the point that there has to be at least one wolf bagged (eg. they wouldn't be in that dire straits), they were talking about the ranger to come forwards for information (sic) etc. etc. If you'd have rread these you wouldn't be asking.

Also I said earlier toDay that the name of the ranger is important to them even if they don't manage to send her/him here (they'd need to sense the air whether to go for it or not - that's why they were testing the air there and preparing for the possibility) as the name could give them clues as to whom the ranger might protect (if not him/herself).

And looking at how easily they have steered the lynches thus far they'll have nothing to worry on that front - especially if tp plays along and sacrifices himself (not a hunter so safe lynch)... So the village will not gain anything with "known innocents" they can not trust anyway but the wolves will do everything with the names of the last gifteds.

And many other things...

But I have told these already. Really. I've said this all already.

Will entertain myself with tv now as talking without being heard is less fun than a mediocre scifi movie..