WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Zil voted against Lottie to "save" Nerwen.

What if Zil did vote against Lottie to save Nerwen?

I mean granted, Zil had been suspecting Lottie rather consistently, but it could have just turned out to be convenient.

And granted they're sort of suspecting each other now (well, mostly Nerwen suspecting Zil), but I guess they could be bold enough to do it now with the numbers very closely in their favour.

Or maybe I'm completely off my rocker.

You're completely off your rocker. Actually, though, it is possible that Zil (or Nog or Shasta) is a Spiderling who thinks I'm another– though I have no idea why that would be, as I really don't think I've been particularly suspicious, nor can I recall saying anything that could be construed as an eight-legged hint. So I think it's more likely Zil took the opportunity to lynch Lottie, who had been after him for ages.

This might even be an honest reaction– I said one of them has to be evil, not that it has to be Zil. His vote did pretty much force the issue, though.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I'm not convinced. Lottie has been suspicious of Zil from the start.

Mmmn. My turtledove, Lottie had been pointing at Zil and yelling "SPIDER! SPIDER!" since about Day 2. Did you really manage to miss this?

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

If you turn out to be a baddie, Zil, I'm going to hate you as long as we're both decaying in this barrow. (You can ask Eomer - I never got over hating him after Werewolf VII. )

I would say the same of you. I have no plans to vote for you, and if you turn out to be evil, especially if you're Shelob, you're my Day 1 vote from now on.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think there must be at least two baddies in the group Zil + Nog + Shasta. Probably not all three, as I don't see why they'd want to stick their necks* out that far just to get an ordo lynched.

Nog's vote yesterDay looks better than Shasta's. It's possible an evil Nog could have taken advantage of the chance to lynch an innocent Lottie, but his reasoning seems sound enough to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mmmn. My turtledove, Lottie had been pointing at Zil and yelling "SPIDER! SPIDER!" since about Day 2. Did you really manage to miss this?

Indeed. Lottie was hardly getting after me just because Shasta tricked her into it. Shasta= spiderling?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If Lottie is lynched and is not a baddie, do Wilwa check tp #405. If she is a baddie make your choice from elsewhere.

Nog, can you clarify what you were trying to say here? At first glance I thought you were trying to say that if Lottie was innocent, I would look more suspicious, but that makes no sense, so I don't know what this means. Unless you were trying to tell me something about phantom, but in that case I don't know what Lottie has to do with that. So yeah, confused.

We have 2 Days before we lose if we don't get a spider, right? And someone is guaranteed to get stung toNight, since Sam can't do anything. So getting Shelob toDay would be super awesome.

Fea isn't Shelob, she could be a spiderling, because I think she'd be someone most people would want on their side, especially since no one seems to have the desire to lynch her. But our priority needs to be Shelob, so we should just leave her be. I'd also be super surprised if Shasta was Shelob.

So who's left: Nog, Inzil, Nerwen and Lhuna. I'm fairly equally suspicious of all of them. They all seem like possible Shelobs to me, so I will go back and look over them a bit more. Just off gut feeling though, I'm leaning towards Nog or Nerwen.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Nog, can you clarify what you were trying to say here?

Easily.

Just as it reads: if Lottie is lynched and is innocent it means phantom is probably a goodie as well - and thus his hinting is something you should pay heed to, and thus not a baddie bluff. But if Lottie turned out a baddie (and not Shelob), then you should not listen to the siren songs made by tp as he would be a mate in crime.

What Lottie has to do with tp? You must be blind (or you have not read the thread).

tp declares Lottie good and not to be lynched like on D1. tp risks / causes no-lynch to save Lottie on "overtime" - with no explanation whatsoever. How do you read it? Baddies (Lottie choosing tp as her first minion felt like a very reasonable choice).

But then his increased hinting about his role made me uneasy. If he was indeed calling for Sam in earnest then we should not lynch him as not to deny him his chance to discuss with Sam - but he could be a baddie as well who came up with this scheme of acting like Frodo and possibly straying Sam into guessing wrong.

That's why - heavily suspecting him and Lottie doing things evilly together, but being afraid he could on anpther interpretation have a goodie-role - I wanted to find it out for good by lynching Lottie (whose role was instrumental in finding it out).

Why did I think tp was Frodo? Look at his early post where he says that if Sam makes it wrong we lose the entire game... Isn't that rather extreme interpretation of our situation? Well not according to phantom as the game is lost if he isn't allowed to discuss with Sam and organise the end-game...

Fea isn't Shelob, she could be a spiderling, because I think she'd be someone most people would want on their side, especially since no one seems to have the desire to lynch her. But our priority needs to be Shelob, so we should just leave her be.

I agree with you with Fea being a possibly tempting target for stinging (actually said it alredy toDay), but what makes you so confident she just can't be / isn't Shelob? You make it sound quite catecorigal...

I also agree with the top priority, well who doesn't as the game ends with the death of Shelob , but I'd be happier to lynch a probable spiderling than a possible Shelob - if you get what I mean? And no, I'm not saying we should rush lynching Fea. I think we should look widely around.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Re-doing and finishing the list I started earlier toDay.

Fea: As I've said now twice - a possible / probable spiderling because of being a safe sting for Shelob (not too high chance Sam rangers or heals her but not easily lynched either).

Shasta: A basic dilemma between a possibly reasonable trick and needing to pull out an afterwards explanation. It would be odd he had not noticed Lottie had been after Zil for more or less the whole game though.

Lhuna: One that could have had nerves to sting phantom as he seemed to trust her openly. But like I said earlier, knowing tp and his ability to make his point known then stinging him would have been a really bad idea as he could make himself known to Sam for healing (Shelob couldn't have known he was Frodo anyway).

Nerwen: She was suspecting phantom enough to vote him on D2. Would have been more or less suicidal to sting tp as she was the only one tp consistently wished to lynch. Unless she felt so much pressure from him that she decided to act on it sooner than later?

Inzil: Here I see my lack of time as I have no decent view on him (well he seems always to be a hard one for me to read). But I see many people have suspected him, so why wouldn't someone suspecting him come forwards with a kind of summa summarum suspicion, why is it you suspect him so that even I kew where to look and at which points.

wilwa: I think everyone of us have had their fair share of suspicion (except for Fea maybe), but none speaks of you. So it seems that even the baddies feel restrained to question you (I have been waiting for someone to do so), so it's good to have one on board we do not even consider lynching and thus one choice less.


Finland meets Russia in ice hockey semifinals and I'll start to look at the game with Greenie, but I'll have my laptop open and try to view this every now and then the next two hours...

[Lhunardawen]

Hmmm. Not a lot of new posts. It's late and I'm tired and should really go to bed.

So at this point my primary suspects remain Shasta and Nog, with Nerwen somewhere behind.

Nogrod, I do have to thank you for taking my question seriously and trying to make sense out of something I didn't get the chance to answer myself.

++Shastanis Althreduin

for being a submarine, his flimsy reasoning for sealing Lottie's fate yesterDay, and getting all defensive, like so:

I'm virtually certain there are two baddies in the trio I mentioned earlier (Inzil/Nerwen/Lhuna), but I think Lhuna has just made herself my first lynch choice.

Noggie, how's this for retaliatory?

Good night (morning, actually), all.

[wilwarin538]

K, that's what I figured you meant by it Nog, but initially upon reading it, it almost sounded like you were saying I would look bad if Lottie was innocent (and since you have seemed to trust me, I didn't get why you thought that). Makes sense now.

I don't think Fea is Shelob, mostly based on sort of meta-reasoning. She seems to have joined with Sally understanding that she couldn't be overly active, so I don't see Sally giving her such an important role (and she wasn't even part of the game right from the start). I think if she had that role she would be participating more, but right now she seems more like an ordo who's just having fun messing with us. Also, if she's a spiderling, she probably would have to had to have been one from the start, and since she wasn't technically playing from the start, that's unlikely. So yeah, she can't be a spiderling, and she's unlikely to be Shelob.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

So at this point my primary suspects remain Shasta and Nog, with Nerwen somewhere behind.

I'd be tempted to put Nog behind Nerwen, but I basically agree.

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Nogrod, I do have to thank you for taking my question seriously and trying to make sense out of something I didn't get the chance to answer myself.

++Shastanis Althreduin

for being a submarine, his flimsy reasoning for sealing Lottie's fate yesterDay, and getting all defensive, like so:

Noggie, how's this for retaliatory?

I can't really fault the vote, though I'd like to see Shasta come back before I would follow suit.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I don't think Fea is Shelob, mostly based on sort of meta-reasoning. She seems to have joined with Sally understanding that she couldn't be overly active, so I don't see Sally giving her such an important role (and she wasn't even part of the game right from the start). I think if she had that role she would be participating more, but right now she seems more like an ordo who's just having fun messing with us. Also, if she's a spiderling, she probably would have to had to have been one from the start, and since she wasn't technically playing from the start, that's unlikely. So yeah, she can't be a spiderling, and she's unlikely to be Shelob.

I see your points and they're valid, but I can't totally rule Fea out as Shelob. I will refrain from making her my focus, though.

[wilwarin538]

Uh, I wish I could have put more time into this today.

I actually think our best bet is Nog right now for Shelob. The reasons he went after Lottie yesterDay don't make a lot of sense to me. And out of the possibilities he seems the most likely to me to have attacked Phantom. And he's trusting me very easily, which I appreciate, but also makes me really uncomfortable.

I also see Lhuna as being unlikely as Shelob, and it's because her and I haven't played together very often/recently, and I know that sounds odd. Though she could have been the person stung from the beginning. Inzil and Nerwen have both sort of gone under my radar, but the thing that stands out about them to me is that neither of them seemed to clue in to who Phantom was yesterday, when seriously it was beyond obvious.

It's somewhat on gut, but from what I can see, Nog just seems most likely to be Shelob.

x'ed with Inzil