WW LXXXVIII: What Lies in the Dark (Game Thread) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Inziladun · 05-14-2011, 11:40 AM

Oh, well. Did what I could. It gets rather difficult when the baddies outnumber one near DL.

Lhunardawen · 05-14-2011, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Oh, well. Did what I could. It gets rather difficult when the baddies outnumber one near DL.

True that.

For me now it's just a question of Nog or Shasta being Shelob. Nog or Shasta. Nog or Shasta.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Yay...

I'm starting to think it may be Nogrod after all, with this post. It's one thing to be happy you were saved from a lynch, but to use a

?

Feanor of the Peredhil · 05-14-2011, 11:53 AM

If you guys could all see my really concerned and dubious expression... Sigh.

I literally have no idea. Normally when I say something like, "I have no idea," I'm lying through my teeth, or I have a gut instinct that's fairly accurate. This game? This time? Today? I have no idea what I or anybody else is doing.

Any one of you could be bone munchingly evil and it would come as no surprise to me.

Inziladun · 05-14-2011, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I'm starting to think it may be Nogrod after all, with this post. It's one thing to be happy you were saved from a lynch, but to use a

?

Since WilwaSam voted for Nog, he's my pick (for all the good it'll do).

Feanor of the Peredhil · 05-14-2011, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Since WilwaSam voted for Nog, he's my pick (for all the good it'll do).

Yeah basically...

Inziladun · 05-14-2011, 12:00 PM

Aren't there two spiderlings?

Lhunardawen · 05-14-2011, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Aren't there two spiderlings?

Yes, there are. By the end of toDay, there will be three.

Inziladun · 05-14-2011, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Yes, there are. By the end of toDay, there will be three.

Well, I see no reason to go for anyone else over Nog. Based on Wilwa's vote, he's got to be the best bet.

Lhunardawen · 05-14-2011, 12:06 PM

Here's the deal. Chances are the three baddies will vote for the same person to force a tie (if not get an innocent lynched). If a tie occurs, there will be no death, by which time the third spiderling will appear. 4 baddies, 2 innocents. Game over.

So - not jumping to assumptions here - but say the three of us all vote against Nogrod. If he's bad, and the three of us are all innocent, the other 3 will all vote against one of us. Of course there's no chance we could convince one of them to vote against Nog.

But if he's innocent, then they'll most likely vote for him, too.

Gah. What should we do?

Lhunardawen · 05-14-2011, 11:55 AM

So this is how things stand at this point, as my limited understanding allows.

We have Shelob, 2 spiderlings, and 1 been-stung with 6 living players. So we're tied at 3.

Scenario 1: We lynch Shelob.
Yay.
Odds: 1/6

Scenario 2: We lynch a spiderling.
Day ends with Shelob and 2 spiderlings against 2 innocents. Bad.
Odds: 1/3

Scenario 3: We lynch the been-stung.
See scenario 2.
Odds: 1/6

Scenario 4: We lynch an innocent.
Duh.
Odds: 1/3

So our ONLY choice of winning is by lynching Shelob toDay. Wow.

05-14-2011, 11:40 AM	#1
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,039	Oh, well. Did what I could. It gets rather difficult when the baddies outnumber one near DL. __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God.

05-14-2011, 11:53 AM	#3
Feanor of the Peredhil La Belle Dame sans Merci Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: perpetual uncertainty Posts: 5,517	If you guys could all see my really concerned and dubious expression... Sigh. I literally have no idea. Normally when I say something like, "I have no idea," I'm lying through my teeth, or I have a gut instinct that's fairly accurate. This game? This time? Today? I have no idea what I or anybody else is doing. Any one of you could be bone munchingly evil and it would come as no surprise to me. __________________ peace

05-14-2011, 12:00 PM	#6
Inziladun Gruesome Spectre Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: Heaven's doorstep Posts: 8,039	Aren't there two spiderlings? __________________ Music alone proves the existence of God.

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Switch to Linear Mode Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

05-14-2011, 12:06 PM	#9
Lhunardawen Hauntress of the Havens Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: IN it, but not OF it Posts: 2,538	Here's the deal. Chances are the three baddies will vote for the same person to force a tie (if not get an innocent lynched). If a tie occurs, there will be no death, by which time the third spiderling will appear. 4 baddies, 2 innocents. Game over. So - not jumping to assumptions here - but say the three of us all vote against Nogrod. If he's bad, and the three of us are all innocent, the other 3 will all vote against one of us. Of course there's no chance we could convince one of them to vote against Nog. But if he's innocent, then they'll most likely vote for him, too. Gah. What should we do?

05-14-2011, 11:55 AM	#10
Lhunardawen Hauntress of the Havens Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: IN it, but not OF it Posts: 2,538	So this is how things stand at this point, as my limited understanding allows. We have Shelob, 2 spiderlings, and 1 been-stung with 6 living players. So we're tied at 3. Scenario 1: We lynch Shelob. Yay. Odds: 1/6 Scenario 2: We lynch a spiderling. Day ends with Shelob and 2 spiderlings against 2 innocents. Bad. Odds: 1/3 Scenario 3: We lynch the been-stung. See scenario 2. Odds: 1/6 Scenario 4: We lynch an innocent. Duh. Odds: 1/3 So our ONLY choice of winning is by lynching Shelob toDay. Wow.