WW LXXXIX: The Terror of Tol Fuin

[A Little Green]

Bom - Was my best bet yesterDay. His idea of a "mercy lynch" for Sally still makes me wary of him, but I'll leave him be for now. At least I want to hear more from him before I decide anything, and I'll most likely be gone by the time he reappears.

Eomer - Confuses me, as usual. I think Lommy made an interesting observation of how he has taken up the role of a gallant knight, but like Lommy, I have no clear idea of what it might mean. He's certainly crafty enough to use something like that as a deliberate strategy to win himself some allies.

Galadriel - I'm very torn about her. Half the time, she seems very sincere, and much of what might be called suspicious about her posts could be attributed to this being her first werewolf game ever (defensiveness, backtracking on her suspicions once someone questions them). On the other hand, (in addition to that the defensiveness and the occasional backtracking that could just as well be signs of being a new wolf) there is something very fishy in the way she phrases some things. The passage about Lommy quoted in my previous post is a case in point.

Kit - Argh, I'm torn about her too.

Legate - His normal wishy-washy self, and as such, could be anything.

Lommy - I have a hard time seeing her as a wolf. She seems sincere.

Mith - Back to the no idea -zone...

Nerwen - ...and remaining solidly there. What always bothers me about Nerwen is that I can read a dozen of her posts, absorbing the content but never much of its writer. I'd like a look at her if I have time.

Nilp - Having a hard time reading him. As always.

Nog - Leaning innocent. Or maybe I'm lulled into a false sense of security just because he sort-of suspected me on Day 1 (and he always does when he's innocent). The down side, of course, is that I always tend to suspect him when he's innocent. So maybe that I don't just means he's a wolf this time.

Sally - Her "I'm an ordo and I'm going to die" -post looked sincere to me. Some of the stuff she's said since made me want to reconsider, especially her way of instantly turning to suspect those who suspected her.

[A Little Green]

Also, if there's anyone around I wouldn't mind a chat. It's kind of dull to appear, comment on previous posts, vote, and go to bed. (Partly my own fault of course, only coming here this late.)

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Also, if there's anyone around I wouldn't mind a chat. It's kind of dull to appear, comment on previous posts, vote, and go to bed. (Partly my own fault of course, only coming here this late.)

Chat chat chat chat...

I have been working on a Nogalysis, and I'm halfway through.

Originally Posted by Mith

Not sure I buy the forgot I was playing line since he actually posted.

Well, he forgot about a RPG a long time ago... *glares at Bom*

Actually that line makes me think of him as more ordo than not. If he was a wolf or gifted, would he really forget his responsibilities?

Suspicions of Bom go down somewhat, though still not dropped.

Edit: xed with Sally

[A Little Green]

Had a quick look at Nerwen.

NERWEN, DAY 1

Only one post, no vote. But then, I'd have been surprised if there had been one. Basically she summarises what Nilp, Sally, and Bom have done, and asks Bom to clarify how much of his famous post was a joke. I think I've called this post of Nerwen's careful and neutral twice already. She takes no stance on any of the issues she comments on, and, this being her only post of the Day, we have pretty much nothing on what was going through her mind that Day.


NERWEN, DAY 2

In her first post toDay, she (surprisingly) laments Shasta's death and wonders why he was killed.

However, looking at yesterDay's chaos of accusations, counter-accusations and passionate defences, it's interesting that apparently nobody looked more like the Seer to the wolves. Shasta's case on Lottie was built on in-game evidence– whereas, a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat.

I think this is a valid point. The trouble is, I could also see a Nerwolf trying to distract the village into futilely debating the reasons behind the kill. This would point, possibly, to a packmate gathering too much attention. Nah. I don't know.

Actually, some of Sally's reaction to G55 could be a wolf trying to distance herself from a cub who's been too quick to defend her. It would fit that pattern quite well in fact. However, as you say, she did press it further than would be needed– so if they're in it together, it would mean Sallywolf was trying to bus her newbie comrade for little reason.

More importantly, though, we also have a known wolf to look at, and G55 happens to be the only person that wolf went after.

So, the key question, then is: how likely is it that Wolflote would make a wolf-on-wolf attack on Wolf55 at that point and in that way?

I really like Nerwen in this post. She's sharp and her reasoning is sound, and the points she makes are ones I'm not sure a wolf would be fond of making.

Her third toDay continues the speculation of a possible Lottie-Sally-Galadriel-trio.

It's perhaps more likely Wolflote would go strongly after a newbie comrade than Sallywolf, simply because Lottie tends to be very pessimistic about her own chances of survival– she might have reasoned that ione or other of them would probably die early anyway, and thus that a real wolf-on-wolf attack was the best bet. All the same, it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade.

Not much to say about Lommy, except to concur that her Legate-180 on Wolflote is peculiar (even coming from the Queen of Flip-floppers).

Her fourth starts with pondering the implications of Lottie forgetting or "forgetting" that Kit was playing. Again, sensible and sharp.

Are you talking about Lottie's claim that she "didn't know Kit was playing"? I don't know– it was, of course, suspicious, with hindsight– but it might have been meant as a more general "look at me, I'm a clueless innocent" ploy, rather than having anything to do with Kit herself. On the other hand (or paw) Lottie did make quite a point of it: at #106 she says, Did I miss something? I could well have - I totally forgot Kit was playing at all, I might have forgotten there was a cobbler, too...

She then moves on to comment on Mith's idea that the modified Ranger might affect the choices of Night kills:

Seconded. That would explain a few things– it's been suggested the wolves thought Shasta was the Seer because of his case on Lottie and/or comments about Sally, but I find that unlikely (unless they panicked). It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

The problem I have with this argument is that Shasta, though not particularly Seerish, still seemed to me an obvious choice for Night kill, given his role in the lynching of Lottie. Therefore if the wolves were afraid of the Ranger, I doubt they'd have gone after Shasta.

Conclusions? I think there's too little material to form any definite conclusion from, but for now, I'll remain wary of her. What bothers me is that even as all her posts could go either way, at the same time half of them scream "innocent" and the other half "suspicious".


EDIT: x-ed since my last - yay people!

[A Little Green]

Galadriel, Kit, Mith, Sally (and anyone else happening to be around), a quick query: who are you thinking of voting toDay?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Galadriel, Kit, Mith, Sally (and anyone else happening to be around), a quick query: who are you thinking of voting toDay?

A bit early to ask that. I'm suspecting meny people on different levels now...

Green (very likely to be innocent)
Sally
Legate

Yellow (more likely to be innocent than not)
Mith
Nerwen
Greenie

Orange (various levels of suspiciousness)
Nog
Lommy
Kit

Red (possible wolves)
Hmm. people from "orange", "unknown", or one from each, perhaps?

Unknown
Bom (awaiting posts!!!)
Eomer (jumps too much)
Nilp (his posts don't really register in my brain. Have to do something about it.)

[A Little Green]

Bed-time.

++ Eomer

[Nogrod]

@Greenie: no idea...

Hah, only got the thread skimmed through as my laptop's mobile-network refused to connect for some reason and I had to awake my old tabletop PC (which took like 1½ hours, no kidding involved ).

And this blasted machine is updating millions of things one after another still (hasn't been used in a month or something) so this might be slow going for some time still.

But I'm working on it.


EDIT: see - my post was an answer to Greenie's question, and it took me ten minutes to make this (PC jamming)- then I decided to make this edit amd in jammed again for the next ten minutes... I love this old PC!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gal

So is she suspicious or isn't she? Despite that she's a "little suspicious", you try not to suspect her.

Yes exactly - my intuitive reaction is suspecting her, but my reason is telling me not to suspect her for the reasons I listed. Simple as that.

Originally Posted by Kit

I went back to read it. I saw the word innocence bolded above the post and that clicked in my mind as Nog and Lottie were innocent to her. No, she doesn't actually say she thinks Lottie is innocent, but she also doesn't really say she thinks she guilty either in that post.

Remind me next time I won't try to phrase stuff creatively as it only creates chaos! The post was titled "innocence stock market" so it was about whose "share" = "innocence value" goes up (Nogrod's) or down (Lottie's). As in some finance stuff. Get it now?

Originally Posted by Nog

EDIT: see - my post was an answer to Greenie's question, and it took me ten minutes to make this (PC jamming)- then I decided to make this edit amd in jammed again for the next ten minutes... I love this old PC!

Why don't you use your laptop???

Greenie's vote came totally out of the green. (Bad pun I know. )


edit: xed with G55

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Why don't you use your laptop???



edit: xed with G55

see post 240

Do try to keep up

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

So I've decided to look at those I have no read on (Nerwen, G55, Sally, Bom) and started with the second-least poster of the quartet.

29: A Bom proby thing. It was the only in-game-like thing at that point.

190: Her explanation of 'why Shasta was killed'. Could be seen as a 'why we killed him' thing, but I suppose that were she evil could have gone with 'a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat.'

(Except that Shasta did that with Sally. Hmm.)

196: Seems assured of G55's innocence (by way of logic--twice.) A sensible argument.

208: First part analyses cursorily the Lottie-Kit dynamic (or lack thereof). I think she seems to see that there is one. Second part:

It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

I agree.

211: Not terribly fond of the "good-votes-are-bad-ones" idea. (I agree with that sentiment--I generally trust the good-vote-people unless the Seer gainsays me or they do something 'Eh?'-like.) Although she adds some doubt of Lommy-chan and Nog-kun in her second paragraph. (But then she ends with a 'Nah, unlikely.')

255

Back and reading.

CONCLUSIONS:
No vote DAY 1--well, she suffers from timezonitis like I do. Sensible and logical, which could go either way. Has been helpful in some points, which points to good.

Only think I can say is I won't vote for her toDAY.

[Nerwen]

Umm. Anyone else think Lottie-Kit-Eomer is a possible combination?

I'm just thinking of Eomer's rather intense focus on Sally and G55 toDay; it looks sort of like he might be trying to steer the discussion away from Kit– and there's also the way he explains her "innocence" comment about Lommy at #218 and
#219. Now, I actually think, whatever Kit is, that the misinterpretation was quite genuine– but all the same this could be a wolf trying to help out a comrade.

Against this view is the fact that Eomer tends to be quite a single-minded sort of player anyway, and perhaps a bit of a "white knight".

Thoughts?

EDIT: X'd with a Nilp and a Mith.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Mith

see post 240

Do try to keep up

Hehe

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Umm. Anyone else think Lottie-Kit-Eomer is a possible combination?

I'm just thinking of Eomer's rather intense focus on Sally and G55 toDay; it looks sort of like he might be trying to steer the discussion away from Kit– and there's also the way he explains her "innocence" comment about Lommy at #218 and
#219. Now, I actually think, whatever Kit is, that the misinterpretation was quite genuine– but all the same this could be a wolf trying to help out a comrade.

Against this view is the fact that Eomer tends to be quite a single-minded sort of player anyway, and perhaps a bit of a "white knight".

Thoughts?

I would say it's possible, but one thing makes me wonder: after Eomer defended Kitanna he clarified he's not defending her and I really started to wonder if a wolf would intentionally draw attention to his defense of a fellow by saying something like that...


edit: xed with Nerwie and Noggie

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nice to see people have been busy with posting, even though it meant digging through several layers of posts for me to reach the present...

Generally, I am getting bad feeling about Eomer from his initial posts of this Day. He goes with this "merry-go-somethingsomething" attitude, sort of floating through the flow without raising too much controversy, notice, suspicion, or anything like that. A bit too careful for my taste and all that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

It is interesting that Kit decided to concentrate her effort toDay (well, thus far) into close-reading those who got LottieWolf lynched. Now wolf-on-wolf votes do happen every now and then and I'm not suggesting some people should be made immune or putting them beyond suspicion just because they voted / lynched a wolf. But Kit's priorities look interesting: like she wishes to turn the discussion away form somewhere else?

Nog makes some sense here, although I don't think the "I didn't know Kit was playing" thing would be a thing for a Wolf to do. That would be really stupid, I mean. But it still makes me think of other possible things behind Kit's behavior, like her constant attacks on certain people (the sort of "zeal") and all that. I think it would be nice to reread her posts, if I have time to do that.

Also, her analysis of Mith is somewhat strange. It feels odd, this listing half of "nothing to say" posts, then saying all this stuff about "there being something fiendish" (not really specifying what?). She also seems to be "spreading the nets", so to say - with her general approach: first continuing in questioning G55, then Mith, then in the very same post saying that at least one Wolf might be a submarine...

I think I really should reread her posts, if I can.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Because neither of us did it properly yesterDay. If all the Lottie-lynchers could just say "what Shasta said" and vote, my vote had to be explained, especially because I didn't comment too much on Lommy before.

"Neither of us" - speaking for both of ye, are you, G55? That smells fishy.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well, he forgot about a RPG a long time ago... *glares at Bom*

Actually that line makes me think of him as more ordo than not. If he was a wolf or gifted, would he really forget his responsibilities?

Now somewhat thinking the same about Bom, although of course nothing can be ruled out (and most of all, I dislike meta-reasoning, and as some people know very well, it can backfire very nastily).

I like it that Gal has accepted my colour-scheme, by the way

EDIT: intentionally x-ed since Nog on this page, I am losing focus with too many thoughts to process - going to continue further on in a separate post...

[Bom Tombadillo]

Argh. No new developments that I've really noticed - I didn't have a chance to start my read-through at the time I planned and so had to do a rather rushed and still not-quite-complete one - just considering of Day One suspicions. Honestly, if I'm going to be this bad about time I should just drop out or something . Anyway, throwaway vote:

++Kitanna

x'ed with Mithalwen.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Bom Tombadillo

Argh. No new developments that I've really noticed - I didn't have a chance to start my read-through at the time I planned and so had to do a rather rushed and still not-quite-complete one - just considering of Day One suspicions. Honestly, if I'm going to be this bad about time I should just drop out or something.

You might want to consider doing all that during the Night. Saves time.


Anyways, I think I've talked about Kit enough toDay to not have to repeat everything now. If you want clarification (*looks at Legate*) tell me so and I'll summarise my reasoning.

++Kitanna

Edit: xed with.... everything!

[Galadriel55]

I'm here, I'm here! I'm reading.

Thank you for the vote list, Sally. It's much easier that way than trying to piece tht together in your brain.

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't know which of the following is the most odd:
- Lottie doing that?
- You thinking Lottie would do that?
- Me thinking you though Lottie doing that?

Lols.

@Nog: welcome to my newly-founded "Red-orange" category! Your votes are just so... weird. You've explained your Lottie-vote, but that doesn't change the fact that you only voted after it was clear that she will be going. And your Mith came almost-out-of-nowhere. You've suspected her in two posts before your vote, but not before that (IIRC. Please correct me if I'm wrong). That was after Kit appeared on many peopple's top-suspect lists. Before that, even during the same Day, you didn't really notice her. As Greenie (? was it her?) said, it was like washing your hands from the Kit-wagon. It looks a lot to me like you're just looking for a convenient person to cast suspicion on.

ToDay I've been paying more attention to Nilp's posts, and I've started getting a bad inkling about them (I believe I said so before in reply to Lommy a while ago, and I'll say it again). Eomer will be placed somewhere more or less definite when he posts about someone other than me.

Edit: xed with a bunch

[Galadriel55]

I'm inclined to follow Greenie's vote. If there's nothing evil about Nog, I'll be ready to join Kit and Sally's "Hat-and-Sock Eating Club".



Edit: that was meant to be somewhat of an ETA to my last post

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

@Nog: welcome to my newly-founded "Red-orange" category! Your votes are just so... weird.

I hope you have now read my post concerning them and readjusted your categories...

Okay then.

Now I feel like I'd have to readjust my suspicons as well. Nilp and Mith bother me to no end as their very personal reactions look pretty weird or at least oversensitive. Something in me says to drop it off with them and if they'd be wolves, then ignore their victory. The other voice tells me that don't I see that's just bluff...

If I'd have to vote for one of them it would be Mith as there is something to really suspect her on (her vote on D1 as the only saving vote for Lottie) unlike with Nilp where most of my suspcion rests on him being over-eager to support some people which as an act looks pretty lupine as the wolves need friends - and can't afford upsetting people by suspecting them (look at the number of retaliatory thoughts in this game fex.).

I can't see a good enough reason to vote for Lommy or Legate by now and even if Eomer gives me creeps I have nothing tangible against him either.

Bom most probably is an uninterested and uninformed ordo (see my earlier post on him for more clarification).

So Greenie? She really scares me now and I'm fighting against the urge to pay back for her ill-adviced suspicion on me which I think she made a way too easily - and am afraid is something the baddies thought they could do toDay. But I have nothing to back that but the bad feeling I get from her - and which I know I get from her more or less every game I play with her...

G55 then? The reason I tend to think her innocent is the way Lottie behaved on D1. Otherwise I'm torn with her. Sometimes she seems to be very well on track of what happens and on others she seems to make either totally odd or then totally sinister posts (opportunistic, suspecting with odd reasons those I think innocentish etc.). If there was not the "case Lottie" behind there I'd probably vote for her, but now I'm more or less insecure about it.

Then again I was wrong with a case based strongly on Lottie's behaviour yesterDay and I'd hate to be fooled by Lottie two Days in a row...

And Sally then? Oh well... I wouldn't be surprised that much if she turned out a wolf but she's not topping my list either. She's about everywhere but still nowhere on my map right now. I suspected her on D1 but I'm not that suspicious anymore. But then there's the nagging thought she changed her ways after seeing where it led her and now plays more carefully...

Phew... vote, vote, vote...


EDIT:

Originally Posted by G55

If there's nothing evil about Nog, I'll be ready to join Kit and Sally's "Hat-and-Sock Eating Club".

pick your seasoning ready as it will not taste good without some...

[Mithalwen]

Oh right I can't remember playing with him before.... I dont'know who I will vote for yet. But time marches on and I suppose I can't drip around all day, I certainly agree with you about Nerwen, I have never ever been able to "read" her in were wolf. I don't like the non-votes (from anyone) but I realise she is a bit isolated by time zone. But when she is around she is very perceptive. However I she is like that as a wolf too. But my not trusting my judgement on something isn't enough. So not Nerwen.

I am not sure I am unsuspicious of Sally. not saying will vote her again but there is something peculiar with this Galadriel Loslote Sally triangle.

[Mithalwen]

Crossed since Greenie.... Eomer ? Reasons? In her list she suspects him mainly due to something Lommie said. *wrinkles nose* Maybe she is anti knights errant. Or a throw away?

[Nogrod]

A few thing on the Lottie / Kit issue - and to answer some questions by G55.

Originally Posted by G55

To add to the things above, he only "noticed" Lottie's "slip" after Shasta's analysis.

That's correct. As I have said earlier, I thought most of the suspicions on Lottie early on Day1 were more likely the normal "Lottie looks suspicious" -thing. Everyone who has played with her knows it how often she is lynched - or at least heavily suspected - on D1's, and thus only newbies and wolves wish to try to lynch her. But it was Shasta's post - or someone elses' (I don't remember whose) which stole my attention. And it was the quote where Lottie talked about not realising that Kit played.

But unlike some people have interpreted it here (even if I thought I made it quite clear yesterDay), it was not just or only that she said that she was unaware Kit was playing, but the added sentence. Let me quote it once more (bolding mine)

Originally Posted by Lottie

Kit's post I saw and instantly "whaaaaaaat"ed because I forgot she was playing in this game. But I don't know how to read her yet, I just wanted to mention that.

So why did she feel the need to add that bolded part in the end?

Okay, I'm quoting myself from the last minutes of yesterDay now:

Originally Posted by me on #162

why did you want to mention that in that special way, "just wanted to mention that"? Why did you want that - and to let us know you did want us to know that? To try to create a feeling there can't be anything between you two last Night?

I see no other option unless you give me one.

So even if I can see a point in what Nerwen says of Lottie possibly only playing the ignoramus-card as such, I still have a nagging feeling that it was not only that (especially looking at Kit's early posting toDay - after that she has changed her focus which would be a wise move from a wolf - but could be explained other ways as well... that's werewolf ). But the next thing I do is to check whether there were any suspicions made about Lottie and Kit being in cahoots or connected in some way that would have triggered the reaction from Lottie. If there is, I'm probably going to vote for Kit, if there isn't, I need to reconsider and try to find a more suspicious candidate.

About Kit's first posts still aka. why I thought them suspicious.

I think Lommy summed it up nicely in a post after mine:

Originally Posted by Lommy

I have to agree though that when a wolf was lynched, it is rather funny to start eyeing those who lynched her suspiciously - it doesn't seem very much like innocent logic. I mean, an innocent would want to pose the question "did anybody try to defend/save Lottie?" first (I imagine), while a wolf is more likely to go down the "let's analyse the bandwagon" path because she doesn't have to figure out who's evil and who's not.

And I'm actually a bit confused if none had tried to look at that more obvious path... That will be my next task, if none beats me to it.

And G55, you say Kit was not doing what I said she was, as you were Kit's "first case" (and I think someone else commented on that as well, that she made other points as well). That's not the point. She did make a few short points on several people in her few first posts (before logging out for some time), but it was clear she had used all her energies going through the posts of two Lottie-lynchers (Lommy & Legate) which hardly seems the innocent's way of best using one's limited energies... And add to that that her analysis on Lommy looked like she was really hard trying to find something suspicious from there.

Okay. Enough of that now.

I'll take a short break and then delve into Kit / Lottie relationship (did anyone suggest something Lottie could have gotten jumpy?). And if in the meantime no one looks whether anyone tried to talk or vote Lottie off the noose, then I'll check that next.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Galadriel, Kit, Mith, Sally (and anyone else happening to be around), a quick query: who are you thinking of voting toDay?

Kit or Galadriel.

Mith is strange, but maybe it's just my inability to read Mith.

*disapparates*