Arda Cup Football 2011

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

The ArdaCup.com Stats Report team regrets its failure to predict half of the quarterfinals results accurately. The team has done its best to analyse the stats, but somehow two wildcard teams have gone beyond what their numbers have shown so far. ArdaCup.com Stats Report will be taking the previous round's intangibles into account and do its best to ensure that it predicts the results of the remaining four games perfectly.

Doriath vs Angband

• Doriath Off > Angband Def
• Doriath Def = Angband Off

Pretty much a straightforward affair on this side of the bracket.

This is Doriath's first test against a quality defensive team, but the fortress of Morgoth has not been as solid as it seems. Angband has shut out The Downer, Tol Eressëa, and Eregion, true, but only The Downer could be considered offensively-oriented among those teams (and they've been a bunch of oddballs who have had more pressing concerns on their minds than the game at hand). When Angband fought against teams with firepower (like Hithlum and Anfauglith), they conceded two goals. Doriath is at the very least on the level of those two teams in offensive intensity, and they will similarly expose weaknesses in Morgoth's back line.

Doriath's defence, which has already been tested against Tirion and Himring in the group stage, has proven its worth in that match with Valinor, allowing just a single goal despite facing the best forward line-up of the tournament (9 goals in 5 games). Angband has up front Ancalagon and Thuringwethil (and also Tilion, who, curiously, has failed to show up so far), but Melian's girdle and Huan's keen goalkeeping, having already been tested against godly boots, seem up to the task of turning even their monstrous might away.

Doriath 2:1 Angband

Pelóri vs Tol-in-Gaurhoth

• Pelóri Off = Tol-in-Gaurhoth Def
• Pelóri Def = Tol-in-Gaurhoth Off

These were the wildcards we mentioned. These teams play a gear higher when faced against opponents of a certain calibre or affiliation, and that makes predicting their games a difficult affair at best. And since they are playing against each other, it requires a thorough scrutiny of their stats, their previous games, and their mentality for the upcoming game to ensure that our predictions are, if not accurately done, then at least pointing in the right direction.

First, we examine Manwë's motivation--perhaps it'll be there, considering that their opponents are baddies. As they have shown in the friendlies and in the tournament games, they have played much better against either teams of evil affiliation, like Angband or Misty Mts, or teams rebelling against what they deem is the proper authority on Arda (meaning themselves), like Valinor or Fëanor's Lothlórien. Pelóri's defence has already been tested against Valinor (allowing just a single goal), and their offence similarly tempered against Lothlórien (scoring two against Galadriel and Gandalf), so the ability is there. Will they use it to the fullest, though?

Tol-in-Gaurhoth, as we have pointed out in Report 7.5, had not faced quality opponents in the tournament--until their last match. They faced a Westernesse team that has always been on of the top three teams in the ArdaCup.com Stats Report Power Ranking, even back in the friendlies, and has always been in the top ten both offensively and defensively of the same ranking. The Westrons were considered one of the favourites to win it all, but such meant little against the Werewolves; they blunted Westernesse's attack (allowing only 1 goal and 4 shots on target to a team that averaged about 3 goals in 6 attempts on target), and they swept aside (literally, in that last play) the smothering defence of the Dúnedain. Although we doubt that such a tactic would work against the Powers themselves, the Werewolves have proven their cunning, and they may try to take advantage of some other weakness of the Valar. They might recall the Norbury-Valimar game from last season, and play as humans with sportsmanlike conduct, lulling the Ainur into a false sense of peace and then taking over the game with their athleticism.

Tol-in-Gaurhoth 2:1 Pelóri