WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Right, DL was about an hour and a half ago. My apologies. Let me just go back and see who's died...

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As the cold sun dropped behind the range at their backs, enough people had decided that Pitchwife was to blame for their predicament, and for the gruesome death of their caravan boss. They tied him up and left him at the foot of one of the steep cliffs, covered in snow, and left him there, still pleading and yelling with them to come back, that he wasn't a bad person, that it wasn't his fault...

Pitchwife's voice was loud enough that it shook the snow free from the cliff above him. Tons of cold white death fell upon him, and he never spoke again.

Pitchwife was an ordo.

It is now Night 1.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Night 1 ends.

As the sun's light rose slowly over Caradhras, lighting up the ground below, the caraveners slowly ventured out of their wagons. Everyone seemed to be accounted for... wait.

Where was The Elf-Warrior?

As one, they turned to look at the wagon that had always been set just a little off from everyone else.

Horrendous clawmarks gouged the door, and blood splattered the threshold.

One or two brave souls ventured a peek inside. There lay their missing comrade, torn to pieces and tied up in his best blanked, hung from the rafters like a macabre pinata.

Day 2 begins.

Dead - The Elf-Warrior (Ordo)

[Nerwen]

Okay... since nobody's around to talk, it seems it's left to me to begin the traditional "Why was he killed?" talk.

So– the face of it, TEW seems a fairly typical Night One trailless kill– he said little about anyone (except for Legate). However, that is from memory, as I haven't yet re-read the thread.

Analysis to follow...

[Nerwen]

The Elf-warrior

#34.

Originally Posted by TEW

Some random thoughts. The problem with trying to figure out how wolves will behave is that they can adjust their behavior accordingly. They can be at each others throats if we say they'll act chummy with each other, for example. However, we can try to sniff out lycanthropy in people's posts like you all have been doing.

To me, Sally is acting like Sally which doesn't say anything about her guilt or innocence. I'm neutral in regards to her guilt or innocence. Nerwen and Laeko_Randalis are the same way.

I am detecting a slight, slight wolvish vibe in the final paragraph of Legate's first post. I think any advantage of having a smaller field is outweighed by the sheer numerical fact that the smaller the village is, the closer the wolves are to winning.

#47. (Replying to Legate at #44.)

Originally Posted by TEW

Actually, Legate, I had and still have time. I was trying to prod you with my remark and your responses seem unwolvish to me. In response to your question, it's easier to make comments about people who haven't said much.

#54.

Originally Posted by TEW

I've reread the thread and this statement by Inziladun looks to me like a possible wolf to wolf communication "As for as wolvish tactics, I don't think anything could be ruled out. I wouldn't think wolf-on-wolf would be necessary, but who knows?"

I'm inclined to believe Pitchwife's explanation that he was trying to stop being Mr. Agreeable. However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time. Bom feels innocent to me. He seems to have the right amount of understanding how his statements could be construed as suspicious.

Greenie seems innocent. Besides, she's sick so I'm not voting for her. In regards to Kitanna, I'm inclined to think missing most of the day by accident is a mistake an innocent would make. Later, I'm going to review Boromir and Galadriel55's posts. Stay tuned.

#71.
Medium-length analysis of Boro and G55. (Why those two in particular? He doesn't say.)
Concludes that "both look okay".


#76.

Originally Posted by TEW

I'm going with my previously expressed suspicion

++Inziladun

CONCLUSION
TEW was more talkative than I realised, but as numerous players pointed out, he seemed to have very little to say– made a few uncontroversial general statements, and was "neutral" about– well, just about everyone. It is quite possible that this is what got him killed– he may well have looked like a Seer being overly careful not to say anything that might falsely implicate others.

The exceptions, of course, are his statements about Legate (#34) ("...a slight, slight wolvish vibe..."), Pitchwife (#54)("However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time") and Zil (#54) ("...a possible wolf to wolf communication..."), plus voting him.

Now, really the Legate comment should not have been seen as a "Seer-hint", since TEW backed off from it immediately, describing Legate in his next post as "unwolvish"– something no responsible Seer would say about a dreamed wolf. It is, however, just barely possible that the wolves considered him a Seer who panicked at Legate's aggressive reaction.

Zil is another matter– the fact that he is the *only* person TEW really accused, in tandem with TEW's "nervous gifted" behaviour, really looks pretty bad for him– to the point where I think Zil himself should be next up for analysis.

(Pitchwife, though, is a counter-example– here we have TEW saying a known innocent "could be a werewolf". This *should* have led the pack to take anything else he said with a grain of salt.)

All the above of course assumes the wolves killed TEW as a supposed Seer, but that doesn't have to be the case. It may have been a framing attempt, or they may have taken his caution and jumpiness as a sign he was *a* gifted, and not bothered about which. (I notice he used the sword icon in his first post, which could have been taken as either a Hunter or Ranger clue.)

Finally, it may have been just a random trailless kill– really unless Zil and/or Legate are wolves, TEW points to no-one at all. But in that we have to wonder why certain other people are still alive.

EDIT:typo.

[Nerwen]

Er– hello? Anyone there?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am here, at least now.

The basic question we are standing in front of now is whether the WWs we have here would act more boldly or try to lay low and try to slide through the small game with minimal losses by leaving no trails and possibly stirring the water elsewhere. I would suspect the latter to be more likely in these circumstances, especially if it was the case that neither of them was a target of any stronger suspicion yesterDay. Since I think nobody was much (except for e.g. Pitch, who is dead), I would not put it past the WWs to have decided toNight's kill by saying "okay, let's make a no-trace kill and try to lay low for the rest of the Day" (with a possible addendum: "let's frame Zil while we are at that".

For this alone, I would strongly urge everyone to post, and I hereby announce that I will be more inclined toDay to vote those who do not participate much.

Of course, once again, this all depends on what kind of Wolves we have - it is possible that we have more bold ones and Zil is one of them and TEW just was a good target, therefore. But I am not really sure. It wouldn't have been a logical move from the WWs. Also, I am not sure if Zil was suspected by anybody else on any larger scale? So unless the WWs really thought TEW was the Seer... hmm, they could have (if Zil is a Wolf)... but the first possibility seems still more probable to me: the WWs don't have much of an idea about the Seer and they just wanted to make a no-trace kill.

Shall be back later with more thoughts, hope to see at least somebody around here.

[Galadriel55]

About yesterDay: so once in a lifetime the sun does rise in the West...

Pitch you are...you're not supposed to be innocent.... DANG IT! But you were so damn suspicious!

/frustration out

I am very surprised that they killed TEW. He got a couple votes yesterDay, and with a bit of persuation could have easily been lynched toDay. My conclusion: why should they waste a Nightkill on him when they could have easily got rid of him the next Day? Did they really think he was a gifted? Or, perhaps, just to stirr something up....

But the point remains: if they thought him to be Ranger or Hunter they could have lynched them. Therefore we're left with either Seer or diversion.

I've gone nowhere with this. It's all been said already. *facepalm*



I'm kinda curious about Nerwen's vote yesterDay, but I doubt that a Nerwolf would be so careless about an almost-throwaway with little explanation (I have to look again, I don't remember how the tally looked when she voted.)


PS - yes, when I voted in my explanation I was referring to Bom&Boro. Sorry for the confusion. I was saying why not Bom and why Pitch.

[Kitanna]

I have precious little time today. I need to go to work in a little over an hour, so for now I'd like to focus on what happened after I voted on Day 1 and what's happened today (though clearly very little).

Originally Posted by G55

The second reason - the more weighty one - is that I was ticked off at Pitch in the last game. I just feel like voting him out of spite.

The first three votes for Pitch came in pretty quick succession. I believe she had no idea Zil and I voted for him, just like I had no idea Zil had voted for him when I put mine down. However, Pitch was generating a lot of conversation and suspicion around him. I don't like this reasoning of "just out of spite" because Pitch wasn't just a random player who hadn't had much activity.

Originally Posted by G55

Though I'm still gonna be watching him (who knows, he was also fenrissed because "he sounded queer"), I don't want to vote him based on his jokes and his reasons for his jokes and etc etc.

She seems to have gotten confused between Pitch and Bom here. Given how much Bom's jokes were discussed that's just unbelievable to me. And then there's the aforementioned reason she gave which as far as I can tell is directed at Pitch and not a Bom reason by mistake.

Moving on, I feel like Boro speaks a lot of sense in his next posts. He makes some observations regarding Kath's vote, the way Pitch and Bom both backed down after G55's "this is pointless" post, and the Pitch bandwagon (coincidence or nefarious activity?). He's certainly the most sensible person in my opinion, which means he can't be trusted.

Bom votes for Pitch and that hardly comes as a surprise. I was wrong about Pitch and now I wonder how wrong I've been about Bom. I easily could have voted for him as well, now I'm going to have to examine him closer than I had the chance to before.

Originally Posted by Boro

Winter is coming.

*slap*

Sally voted for TeW because

Something about Elf-Warrior's analysis looks off to me. It just seems forced, or like he's trying to say something without saying it. Definitely a mark in my suspicious column. Enough for a lynch vote? I'll have to consider it.

I would like more details on this suspicion.

Boro votes for Kath, no surprise there. Nerwen does too. Nerwen gives the reason that she doesn't a universal bandwagon and Kath's vote was suspect. But in the same breath she states Kath may just not know what to do, thus defending her. When Nerwen made her reasoning post Boro was already commenting that he might vote for Kath even if it was a throwaway. Then Nerwen agrees? I don't know about that. Stop one bandwagon and attempt to start another?

TODAY
I'm glad Nerwen did an analysis of E-W because I wouldn't have had time to.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The exceptions, of course, are his statements about Legate (#34) ("...a slight, slight wolvish vibe..."), Pitchwife (#54)("However, that could be true and he could be a werewolf at the same time") and Zil (#54) ("...a possible wolf to wolf communication..."), plus voting him.

I feel the people listed here (Pitch excluded) deserve some looking over. Nerwen may have a point here.

Originally Posted by G55

PS - yes, when I voted in my explanation I was referring to Bom&Boro. Sorry for the confusion. I was saying why not Bom and why Pitch.

Mmmm

So based on yesterday's votes I think Kath, G55, and Nerwen are looking the worst now.

I stated my reasons regarding Kath in my lengthy post yesterday. Her "let's get a cornered sally to fight" reasoning was just too suspicious for me.

G55 spent a long time talking about how pointless the debate over jokes were, then she turns around a votes for one of the main players. She confuses Bom and Pitch and then makes a "I'm sorry, it was a mistake" post this morning. I don't like that either. Her actual reason for voting for Pitch (out of spite) was no better. Him and Bom had both garnered a lot of attention. I would have been surprised if neither one of them was voted for and then she makes that comment? Not very nice at all, precious.

And Nerwen. Her vote for Kath wasn't a surprise because she had said earlier it might be a possibility. But I don't like the placement of her reasoning. She says she wants to stop a universal bandwagon and because Kath's vote is suspect after Boro says he's probably voting for Kath. As I said earlier, one bandwagon for another? I don't think Kath was ever really in danger of being lynched yesterday, but Nerwen's reasoning are too convenient for my liking.

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