WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[satansaloser2005]

Incidentally, we have at least two players in danger of modfire toDay. This does not bode well. We need everyone to participate and vote, or the wolves will win without a fight.

That means you, new kids. You vote or you die. That is all.

*stern!Sally is stern*

I'm also proposing the radically stupid idea of, if the modfire candidates don't show up by Dusk, just killing one of them. It would be better to waste a lynch on an absent innocent than to have three die in one Day. I'm just putting this up for consideration; I'm hoping it won't be necessary.

[Kitanna]

*sneaking on for three minutes before her lunch ends*

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I'm also proposing the radically stupid idea of, if the modfire candidates don't show up by Dusk, just killing one of them. It would be better to waste a lynch on an absent innocent than to have three die in one Day. I'm just putting this up for consideration; I'm hoping it won't be necessary.

We run a lot of risk doing this. We may save ourselves too many innocent loses, but we also buy the wolves time as well. I'd rather not waste my vote on people who are in danger of modfire. I want to use my vote on someone I actually suspect. And if everyone says "well they're dead anyway" and votes like that we have no trail to follow on Day 3 where voting is concerned. It's easier to hide behind comments, but hiding behind votes is oh so much harder.

Had more to say, but I gotta run again. I just had to comment on this idea now though.

[satansaloser2005]

As Boro would say, fairy nuff. It's not a plan I'd want to put into action, but I'd probably try it if I didn't like where the lynch was headed (e.g. someone I trusted was alone on the block).

Besides, I see it benefiting us innocents more than the villains, at least from a numbers standpoint. From an evidence perspective, however, it's fairly useless. :/

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

As Boro would say, fairy nuff. It's not a plan I'd want to put into action, but I'd probably try it if I didn't like where the lynch was headed (e.g. someone I trusted was alone on the block).

Besides, I see it benefiting us innocents more than the villains, at least from a numbers standpoint. From an evidence perspective, however, it's fairly useless. :/

Greenie always gets annoyed if I bring this up with mod-fires. If it's just one person who may be modfired we vote to lynch. It extends the game by 1 phase. (Gives us another night, in which with the hunter/ranger still presumably alive would hopefully extend it more). But with 2 modfires, I don't think we gain the extra phase.

Worst case scenario, they're both innocent, and we lynch one of the mod-fires. That leaves 7 innocents, 3 wolves. And 2 days to get a wolf. And we essentially give up trying to lynch a wolf today.

Or, we lose the 2 mod-fires, they're both innocent, and we lynch another innocent. 6 innocents, 3 wolves. Still get 2 days to get a wolf. But we aren't giving up the lynch chance for a wolf.

Sorry, sally, with 2 mod-fires, there's no gain to be made by voting to lynch one of them. Better to use the chance today voting someone else and hope one of the 3 is a wolf.

Edit: crossed with Inzil

[satansaloser2005]

What do you mean, gain an extra phase? Modfires lose us phases (assuming they're innocent, that is).

I'm really fine either way, but you're being pretty cavalier with our numbers.

Speaking of Greenie, when is she expecting to return?

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

What do you mean, gain an extra phase? Modfires lose us phases (assuming they're innocent, that is).

I'm really fine either way, but you're being pretty cavalier with our numbers.

I'm not going into that argument again.

I was assuming worst case scenario, to explain that either if we chose to lynch one of the mod-fireds, or lose 3 people today, it doesn't make a difference in the amount of days left.

Now if one of the mod-fireds or the person who's lynched today turns out to be a wolf, then this whole scenario is moot anyway.

I have no idea what you mean that I'm being cavalier with the numbers, just using them to say I agree with Kit.

[Boromir88]

Yesterday's votes:

Kath ---> sally
Pitch ---> G55
Legate ---> TEW
Inzil ---> Pitch
Kitanna ---> Pitch
G55 ---> Pitch
Bom ---> Pitch (4)
Boro ---> Kath
TEW ---> Inzil
sally ---> TEW (2)
Nerwen ---> Kath (2)

Can't really glean much from the late votes. Out of all of them, I still think Kath's reasoning looks the most suspicious, but that's all I've got on her right now. Not going to bang on about it, but I hope she can get back today so I can hear an explanation on it.

Of the Pitch voters, Bom's reasons are the most suspicious. His vote for Pitch came after a post where he sort of backs off:

Originally Posted by Bom, #53

Well, while I disagree with the idea Pitchwife's explanation for his behavior so far, it is enough to get me off his back for now (though he's still a candidate for voting until/unless somebody else starts acting suspicious). I'd hate to vote G55 for what seems to me like a genuine peacekeeping effort, and nobody else is really standing out much to me.

He sort of backs off, but doesn't, by leaving the door open to vote Pitch if nothing else happens.

The 3 who cross-voted (Inzil, Kitanna, G55) look good enough all for different reasons. Inzil thinks Pitch jumped too quickly at Bom, then switched too quickly on G55.

Kitanna thinks Pitch tried to pull in an innocent-Bom, while pushing back a wolf-Bom. Bom looks like he tried doing the same thing in the post #53 quoted above.

G55 did a process of elimination and was left with either Pitch or Bom.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

I don't think the timing matters, unless he was hoping to make sure there wouldn't be enough remaining votes to have a bandwagon against him? That is to say, just because you, Kit, and G55 all cross-voted, doesn't make the timing of your votes any better or worse than Bom's. 3-4 votes is really all it takes to lynch on Day 1.

Even if the 3 were cross-votes, all of you essentially put Pitch up to be lynched. Or at least insure that if he wasn't there would have to be another bandwagon from the later voters to save him. Bom's vote coming later did pretty much seal it, but the bandwagon as already there and to save Pitch would have meant consensus from me, Bom, TEW, sallyand Nerwen.

The only one I would have felt comfortable pushing harder for would have been Kath. But sally didn't seem bothered by Kath's vote and wasn't going to vote for her. And it was feeling like a throwaway even before Bom's vote.

[Kath]

Hate, hate, HATE tabs! Just lost my post. Re-writing.

Is modfire definitely happening? Because if not the debate isn't much use. Can the mod-God tell us? Or have I missed the question/response.

About my vote for sally yesterDay:

sally #1

Boro, my prince, hold me. Our beloved Shasta is dead, and these horrible villains could come after any one of us next. How will we cope?

Simple. We will run away, our lives again like the fairy tale of old, and we shall rid ourselves of this predicament and be free to be together forever. What say you, my love?

sally #2

Also, why do I feel like I'm trapped in Tolkien's rendition of Oregon Trail?

sally #3

Goddess? Oh, goodness! What all did they do to Shasta?

sally #4

Will the three live werewolves please stand up?

I regret nothing.

So where are the rest of you people? Even Nerwen showed up already.

sally #5

My sweet prince, I've simply missed you. Don't you trust me?

I remember the Days when we were happy and together, and the wolves couldn't threaten us. They were good Days, and I wish we could return to them. That's all.

And yes, don't vote me. Innocent!Sally is innocent, and that would be a bad move.

So....where are Kath and Greenie? Shouldn't the lovely ladies be around by now?

sally #6

There are less people to keep track of, so it's easier to keep track of them, and thus harder to hide sketchy interactions.

Yes?

<-- First time we get anything vaguely useful, 6 posts it. And it's not an idea of her own it's simply a retelling of Greenie's ramblings. Helpful interpretation but not helpful for interpretation.

At this point I had to vote. I don't believe on Day 1 that you're going to catch a wolf by careful, considered analysis. If you get one it's sheer dumb luck or it's because the wolf in question has done something monumentally silly to get caught. I was voting with 36 posts behind me - no one had accidentally (or purposefully!) revealed themselves. I want sally around. She's a good player. But she's not much help with the above level of posting. I hoped a vote-kick might push her into more posting.

sally #8 (7 was a time warning)

As much as I don't care for the unwarranted suspicion, this is hardly the first time Kath has done something like this, so I'll probably give her a pass....at least for toDay.

Won't vote:
Kath
Boro
Dun
Pitch
Greenie
Fresh Meat #1 and #2

<-- Look! A response to the thread with her own ideas and some information about her voting. I'm not taking total credit () but this is what I was after.

Off to look through TEW posts now. Assuming I don't close the tab again.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am starting to be slightly suspicious of sally - first her generally noncommited attitude, "flies eat me", as we say (not sure if it is an international saying), several threatening remarks towards the newbies and urging other people to do something where she herself does not seem to do anything except for that, more or less. Any analyses of your own? Any relevant suspicions or stuff like that?

And secondly, this "let's lynch the modfired ones" theory. Okay, now these later posts of hers where she keeps dragging it on seem more genuine, as in, if it was only a fake, then she probably wouldn't drag it that long. But in the beginning, it sounded a bit as if she was bringing some random theory which could actually prevent us from lynching a Wolf toDay (proved that neither of the newbies is one, which actually I think they might be) but then backing away from proposing it just after people seemed frowning about it. But then again, if I really think about it, I can see even innocent Sally doing something like that. Still, I am sort of wary of her.

Maybe in relation to this I should remark that I am also not entirely sure about Boro, at one point when reading through this I started to even think of Sally-Boro cooperation. Now after reading Boro's frustration-post (the one before mine, proven I don't cross with anyone), that sounds genuine and it would have to be really well-orchestrated for him to do so with a Wolfmate (I mean the "I am not getting into that argument again" stuff). Still, there is something that makes me slightly uneasy about him, maybe it's also the fact that he seemed so... calm after my last reply to him, I am used to an innocent Boro being more like constantly prodding people, I would have expected him to start arguing with me or something. But maybe he's just being sensible, or I am underestimating his reasonability in general (in that case, sorry)

EDIT: okay, x-ed only with Kath, that's fine.

[Kath]

TEW. A trailless kill? A suspected Gifted? A set up?

TEW #1:
I largely agreed with most of the information in this. We've always struggled with how much to speculate about wolvish behaviour and he outlined that pretty well. I disagree with his reasoning about Legate but I think that's down to a different reading of Legate's actual post. So here we've got an early suspicion. Could lead to being suspected of Seerdom given fairly strong suspicion in a first post.

TEW #2:
I found this comment rather odd, about quieter people being easier to read. I would always have thought that makes it harder! The phrase 'flying under the reindeer' doesn't exist for nothing. Given that TEW then takes back his suspicion of Legate here the Seer note is perhaps less likely. The flip flop on Legate might suggest a Legate set up.

TEW #3:
I'm beginning to doubt thought that he was a trailless kill. Look how many people he mentions in each post. Here he states suspicion of Inzil for talking about wolf tactics. I actually agree with Inzil that wolves trying to communicate during the Day would be pointlessly risky so I'm not convinced about TEWs reasoning, but the point is the strong opinion TEW shared here.

TEW #4:
Oddly we now come to two people he seems to have no real opinion on despite analysis; Boro and Galadriel. If either of these were wolves then perhaps he would be more likely to be a trailless kill.

TEW #5:
Votes Inzil for the wolf tactic talk. A reasoned vote based on personal analysis of the text.

So I'm thinking really not a trailless kill unless Galadriel or Boro are wolves. Could be an attempt at a Legate set up - if so I'd think we have very bold or very new wolves given Legate voted for him making the connection obvious.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Is modfire definitely happening? Because if not the debate isn't much use. Can the mod-God tell us? Or have I missed the question/response.

Actually, we're only going on suppositions, but the normal scenario is that a lack of voting two consecutive Days leads to modfire. We have one who has posted (albeit nothing of any apparent consequence), but has not voted yet, and one that hasn't appeared at all.

Where are you, Bom? Why so silent now?

x/d with Legate and Kath

[Galadriel55]

I'm reading through toDay's posts, and I noticed that some people are suspecting me for "mixing up Pitch and Bom". I get where the other suspicions are comming from, but this one is just unreasonable, at least from my perspective. I was on the verge of holding my eyes to keep them open, thinking "Bom was Ranger" and writing "he was Ranger". The result is that people thought I'm talking about Pitch. Well, I get that, and I clarified toDay. And I'm still suspected.

I am simply curious about how that could be a basis for suspicion. Kit?


Anyways, I'm continuing to read, so some more important comments likely to follow.

Edit: xed with Kath

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway, I think we should move on from "why was TEW killed", since I think we have revealed as much as we could, to "whom are we going to lynch".

I concur. The Pitch votes (and yes, that includes mine) should naturally be our focus, I think.

Why did I vote for him? I said so here and here.

Kitanna's and G55;s x/d with mine. Over an hour later, Bom came in with his, and sealed Pitch's fate.

G55 has said hers was "out of spite". Since it led to his lynch, that would seem an especially questionable reason.

Kit's was better reasoned.

Bom's, by virtue of the timing, and the somewhat intense interactions between him and Pitch, might look the worst.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

We run a lot of risk doing this. We may save ourselves too many innocent loses, but we also buy the wolves time as well. I'd rather not waste my vote on people who are in danger of modfire. I want to use my vote on someone I actually suspect. And if everyone says "well they're dead anyway" and votes like that we have no trail to follow on Day 3 where voting is concerned. It's easier to hide behind comments, but hiding behind votes is oh so much harder.

Sensible!Kit is sensible, at least on this score. Lynching a likely modfire is not something I could get behind.