WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Boromir88]

Last night I was all but convinced Inzil was a wolf, but now with the wolves needing 1 more successful lynch, I really don't know.

I was hoping to direct the wolves to Kit and Kath as sally's dreamed innocecents. So why Kit, and not Kath? And if Inzil is getting framed it's a masterful job by the wolves. Hoping I would jump on a vote against Inzil now? Still, Inzil looks highly suspect.

There's nothing we can find from Azura. And nothing we can really do other than let Azura get modfired, if he doesn't come to vote.

Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.

I'd also like to hear some more opinions on Inzil. I'm mostly worried, Kit's death makes Inzil look worse and based on what I said yesterday, it could be to frame Inzil. And at the point, the wolves are going to be likely making kills to have the death lead to another innocent. Especially, if they were convinced that would be what it took for me to vote Inzil today, and then the 3 actual wolves could pile on.

And what about Kath then? I thought she's been assumed as an innocent for a while now, yet the wolves went for Kitanna instead.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.

Maybe I should have a look at Laeko. I doubt there'll be much to find, though, whatever she(?) is, as she(?) has barely interacted with anyone else.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'd also like to hear some more opinions on Inzil. I'm mostly worried, Kit's death makes Inzil look worse and based on what I said yesterday, it could be to frame Inzil. And at the point, the wolves are going to be likely making kills to have the death lead to another innocent. Especially, if they were convinced that would be what it took for me to vote Inzil today, and then the 3 actual wolves could pile on.

And what about Kath then? I thought she's been assumed as an innocent for a while now, yet the wolves went for Kitanna instead.

Mmmn, well, if Zil's a wolf, then he ended the Day with the intention of somehow parlaying Legate's innocence into a "sign" of Kit's guilt– one of those two-for-one deals that wolves love so much– and then we have to suppose he changed his mind– or his packmates changed it for him. I don't see this as too much of a conundrum, since it must have been clear by then that his plan wouldn't work. It is true, though, that if Zil's innocent, the wolves would have had the *perfect* opportunity for a frame.

Or Kath could be a wolf. Sure. Maybe Sally was just in a good mood on Day One, or something. But there's not much could be done about that now– I really doubt Kath is going to find her neck in a noose toDay.

Or it could just be that, with two semi-known innocents to choose from, the wolves picked the one they judged less likely to be protected. It may that simple.

[Nerwen]

Laeko, Day One

#12. Very brief IC post.

#83.

My, oh my, but posts go by quickly here.
The quotes don't help. My poor head...

But, umm, look upon my cute pony icon and tell me, could you really suspect someone with a Twilight Sparkle avatar of being a cold-bloodthirsty killer?

Comment: I'll say! *shudders* ...Er... what I mean is, this post does seem quite self-conscious, considering nobody *had* suspected Laeko. However, it's really pretty typical Day One banter, and no doubt I am letting my intense loathing for all things My Little Pony get the better of me.

Didn't vote.



Laeko, Day Two
#134.

I'm Alive!
Boy do peole write a lot. But darned if I'm gonna be mod-fired that easily.

Quoting Boromir: #113 "But I can't see either you or Inzil being bothered much, by vague and slight suspicions if you were wolves."

Not to mention, it's usually very unwise to kill the person who voted for you. Then again, if there'd be any time TO do it, it would be the first kill, before "relationships" have been established and everyone's still all fuzzy about… well, everything!

And as has been pointed out, it's still early in the game, and it's just as likely that the wolves are as scared as the rest of us, wanting to make sure not to give themselves away. And hey, it does make a heck of a distraction to kill a target that they don't have much to go on.

Sally: #116, "benefiting us innocents?" You seem somewhat eager to point out your innocence, and that is making you seem suspicious. Then again, that's been pointed out before, so either you missed it, you forgot about it, or you're hoping that by repeatedly proclaiming your supposed innocence that you convince us that way. Have no idea whether that will work or not.

Cripes, I hate being a newbie, though the "protection" is nice, I suppose.

Comments: Seemingly, at some pains to play down the Night-kill ("the person who voted for you" being Elf-warrior for Zil). Goes after Sally, but on fairly reasonable grounds. Overacted "relief" at being still alive is perhaps a bit suss.


#150.

Kit, #137 I'm against protecting your lot. You're lucky you didn't really say anything yesterday.

Sounds like SOMEpony's jealous. Nah, just kidding. You drive a hard, cold logic, but you seem legit nevertheless. Maybe a little too serious, but legit.

And yes, to everypony else, I do understand that my protection ends tonight. I honestly didn't ask for it and the only reason I'm thankful for it is because it took me a while to get into the habit of checking this thread. I might actually be bummed to see Azura go, because it looks like he's gonna get modfired unless he does something last-minute.

Regarding Bom, I didn't like the first impression I got, but that was a combination of the vibe I got from his post combined with his usericon (I know, that's stupid, but his post and his picture seemed to communicate a logical predator cooly observing his prey). But first impressions over texted internet are easily misleading, so I'm going to hope he posts more and see what happens. Hopefully I'll wind up liking him as much as I like his screenname.

If Sally confessed to wanting to lynch TEW after he was proven innocent, my first conclusion is that she's being honest and confessing her mistake (though I missed the post in which she said it. Weird, I could have sworn I read everything after TEW died). Then again, upon further reading, I now understand the suspicion of lynch-apologizing.

Comment: Again with the ponies! Eager to learn the ropes (and avoid modfire). Could be anything.


#176.

Hmm, whom to logically choose...

Kitana is out, she seems to dislike me too much for her to be a werewolf.
Legate seems entirely legit, as well.
Boromir seems to be one of the brightest minds in the game, and while I find it hard to trust anyone whose logic is too intelligent for me to follow, my gut nevertheless tells me he's good to go.
I haven't myself noticed anything about Kath that makes me suspect them.
Same goes for Greenie.
Inziladun gets points for pointing out they started the Pitchwagon.
I'm keeping a close eye on Sally, though it seems as though I'm not the only one with suspicions.
And finally, I'm not going to vote for Bom because he hasn't been around to defend himself today.

Having read the discussion, that leaves Nerwen and Galadriel. What strikes me as both hilarious and confusing simultaneously is that the two seem to have engaged in quite the argument. Now, that could potentially mean that a) neither of them is is a wolf but they suspect each other, b) one of them is and is trying to make the other one look it so as to avoid attracting attention herself, or c) both of them are and one of the werewolves is getting betrayed. c) is illogical because it's far too early in the game. This is why I decided to wait further.

++Galadriel

Comment: Sucks up to Boro, the way Boro sucks up to tp. Simply sickening. Interprets Zil's saying he "started the Pitch-waggon" as a point in his favour, which I think is an odd way to look at it. Still poking at Sally– this and the previous comment do seem just a bit "off"– not actually making any kind of case or observation, but just reminding everyone else to suspect her (and even the first comment did that, as a matter of fact). Again I could be reading too much into this, as we are dealing with a newbie threatened with modfire for lack of participation, who would naturally be casting around for something to say. Nothing against the other comments. The vote itself is... odd. Laeko seems to be leading up to an explanation for her(?) choice of Galadriel55, but then... doesn't.



Laeko, Day Three
#268.

Boromir seems to have maintained logical arguments this entire time, and has come to earn my trust. If he's a werewolf, he deserves to kill me for how legit he's made himself look.

Nerwen is seeming a bit suspicious in terms of projecting a sort of argumentative vibe, but then again, most of what I've been noticing in terms of her posts is defending herself, and when everyone's paranoid (which we all should be), that's at least somewhat understandable.

After all, yesterday I'd been noticing Nerwen and Galadriel acting very similarly, and then I went and voted to lynch the blasted Hunter! Given none of the wolves have yet been lynched, my immediate conclusion for losing two gifteds in one night was "well, we're definitely screwed now."

#273.

++Nerwen

So, who shall break the tie?

Another odd vote.

Well, then. It's the usual "newbie, or newbie wolf"? question. As we all know, the two can look very much alike. I'd didn't expect to be able to reach any real conclusion, and I haven't– but it does at least seem within the bounds of possibility for Laeko to be a wolf-cub.

Thoughts?

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Zil

And you don't think any of the suspicions of you might be justified?

Well, I know they're not, you see, Zil. What with me not being a wolf, and all. (Er– what did you expect me to say?)

Originally Posted by ZIl

Also, how would I be getting framed? TEW's kill reflected badly on me because of his final vote, but what else is there?

See the possible Kit-death scenario outlined in my last post.

Originally Posted by Laeko

Quote:
Originally Posted by Boromir88
Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.
She generally makes good points, though I'm not completely comfortable with her myself.

You know, it's a funny thing. I had the impression that Laeko was making good points, and was on the ball, and all that, but now that I've looked at her posts in full, I see most of her comments on people are vague generalities like "seems legit". She actually says very little that's specific.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, I know they're not, you see, Zil. What with me not being a wolf, and all. (Er– what did you expect me to say?)

Well, you could say you're a wolf.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See the possible Kit-death scenario outlined in my last post.

Ok. That's the one I crossed with and didn't have time to read it then.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know, it's a funny thing. I had the impression that Laeko was making good points, and was on the ball, and all that, but now that I've looked at her posts in full, I see most of her comments on people are vague generalities like "seems legit". She actually says very little that's specific.

The pony references aren't as alien to me, having a young daughter and all.

That said, some of the things she's said, like this:

But, umm, look upon my cute pony icon and tell me, could you really suspect someone with a Twilight Sparkle avatar of being a cold-bloodthirsty killer?

,

and this:

I'm Alive!

do seem somewhat unnecessary, but I can't distinguish newbie-wolf from newbie-innocent there either.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know, it's a funny thing. I had the impression that Laeko was making good points, and was on the ball, and all that, but now that I've looked at her posts in full, I see most of her comments on people are vague generalities like "seems legit". She actually says very little that's specific.

Those were some blatant attempts at flattery and...well...it works. In the same way my sucking up to tp normally does.

Originally Posted by Laeko

Boromir seems to have maintained logical arguments this entire time, and has come to earn my trust. If he's a werewolf, he deserves to kill me for how legit he's made himself look.

I know I've said similar things like this to Greenie before (and probably you too Nerwen). More flattery, but don't think the flattery looks wolvy.

[A Little Green]

Gah. I'm back here, sadly without having acquired enlightenment during my hours away. Looks like it's going to be a choice between Nerwen and Inzil for me toDay.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, off the top of my head, the only reason I can remember is my Day One vote for Kath. And I think that's pretty thin, too, quite frankly.

It would be. More than the fact that you voted Kath, though, I'm unnerved by how you first urged the Pitchwaggon on and then washed your hands as soon as it actually began to happen. Maybe I've been fixated on that, but nothing has made me change my mind, either. These latter Days, then, I'm not sure what to make of the fact that each Day you seem to have someone you get into a heated argument with (whether it was you who started it or the other I don't know), and those tend to end up dead. It confuses me more than causes suspicion, though.

Inzil, then, has been even more of a Mr. Agreeable than he usually is. Very smooth, you hardly remember he's there even though he posts relatively much, and looking at his votes he's always going for the easy lynch. On the other hand, I wonder if an evil Inzil would appear quite this blatantly like the classic uncontroversial wolf.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

It would be. More than the fact that you voted Kath, though, I'm unnerved by how you first urged the Pitchwaggon on and then washed your hands as soon as it actually began to happen. Maybe I've been fixated on that, but nothing has made me change my mind, either. These latter Days, then, I'm not sure what to make of the fact that each Day you seem to have someone you get into a heated argument with (whether it was you who started it or the other I don't know), and those tend to end up dead. It confuses me more than causes suspicion, though.

I meant to make a note of this but forgot. But you reminded me.

Oh, wait going back to the half-analysis of Nerwen yesterday, I did. With the Pitch stuff, I think Nerwen came more of as a standard Lommy flip-flop and not trying to step away from it. There is a difference between what I would call a rambling Lommy flip-flop and trying to wash your hands clean of it.

I mean, to me. Nerwen saying:

On the other hand, his cases on both of them were sound enough, by Day One standards– and someone had to get the ball rolling

Pointing out that suspicions had to start from someone and Pitch did in fact get them started. And..

I was pointing out his perhaps opportunistic choice of targets– so yes, I suppose that's "casting suspicion". Is that a problem?

Here saying Pitch did target 2 people (Bom and G55) who normally do look suspect early, and it's something that Pitch would know.

I think it looks quite different than Inzil who clearly did try to back away the next day from vote. Then at the same time also make sure to point out he started the Pitch voting.

[A Little Green]

I am currently faced with several problems.

1) My two main suspects don't, at least at first glance (which is all I have time for), really look like fellows. Inzil's Day 3 vote could be seen as intended to save Nerwen, but on Day 2 he actually says he'd be ready to vote for Gal based on what Nerwen said, and I'm unconvinced that a Zilwolf, however crafty, would say that so openly. Their toDay's interactions don't look blatantly wolf-on-wolvish either, but that isn't really to say anything about whether they are or not.

2) If one of them is not a wolf, then, I have no idea who else it might be (though, as stated before, if Nerwen is a wolf I'd call it quite possible that Boro is, too).

3) Either way, there is still the third wolf. If it's Azura and s/he isn't modfired, I'm going to be more than a little frustrated. If Kath, I'm going to scream - though Boro's point about why she isn't dead yet was a good one. Who does that leave? Boro I'm very unsure about but if I had to say something more definite I'd say he was leaning innocent. Nerwen's analysis of Laeko was interesting, made me have second thoughts about a player I hadn't really analysed much - but at the same time, Laeko would be a very easy target for the wolves toDay.

Wait. Actually I just came up with an optimistic thought. I have a 50% chance of getting it right toDay!


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[Inziladun]

So Kitanna was innocent after all, and choosing Legate over Nerwen or Greenie didn't work out. Is that my reward for trusting Nerwen?

Both Laeko and Azura need to vote toDay. Even if we get a wolf, if Azura is modfired, the ratio toNight will be 3:2. With one more kill the wolves would win.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway. I am getting most frustrated by this game. Obviously, the wolves have been very clever, with their divide-and-conquer tactics, but I think it only fair to say they've had both luck and help from the village (what with the Hunter deciding to go kamikaze, and all– still scratching my head over that one). Not only that, but the number of ordos who have allowed themselves to be manipulated into going after me... well, again, frustrating. I mean, I suppose I should be flattered everyone fears me so much, but having to be on the defensive Day after Day, and to no purpose, is just draining.

And you don't think any of the suspicions of you might be justified? Some of those who have been "manipulated" are known to be sharp, independent thinkers. Yet they've all been duped?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mind you, I can't rule out something more complicated– for example Boro and Zil could be doing a particularly fine, elaborate and well-acted wolf-on-wolf routine.

I was thinking the same of you and Greenie after yesterDay, but then considered that her voting you so consistently seems to be pretty reckless, especially when you've garnered so much suspicion.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I was hoping to direct the wolves to Kit and Kath as sally's dreamed innocecents. So why Kit, and not Kath? And if Inzil is getting framed it's a masterful job by the wolves. Hoping I would jump on a vote against Inzil now? Still, Inzil looks highly suspect.

Why did you want to "direct the wolves?

Also, how would I be getting framed? TEW's kill reflected badly on me because of his final vote, but what else is there?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

There's nothing we can find from Azura. And nothing we can really do other than let Azura get modfired, if he doesn't come to vote.

As much as I don't want to see him show up out of the blue and make an uninformed vote, that would still be preferable to a modfire. At least with a vote he has a chance to do some good.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Laeko's posts look like there's a good grasp on people. But that vote and "so who's going to break the tie?" looks bad. And, at this point, not something I'm going to write off as a newbie misunderstanding.

She generally makes good points, though I'm not completely comfortable with her myself.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'd also like to hear some more opinions on Inzil. I'm mostly worried, Kit's death makes Inzil look worse and based on what I said yesterday, it could be to frame Inzil. And at the point, the wolves are going to be likely making kills to have the death lead to another innocent. Especially, if they were convinced that would be what it took for me to vote Inzil today, and then the 3 actual wolves could pile on.

I was suspecting Kit yesterDay, but I'm not clear on how her death looks bad for me.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

And what about Kath then? I thought she's been assumed as an innocent for a while now, yet the wolves went for Kitanna instead.

I've had a tendency to overlook Kath because she's a lot more in the background than many others. That's fairly in character for her, but she needs a close look.

x/d with Nerwen: Yes, this took that long to write. Stupid work.