WW: LXXXVIII - Trouble in the Misty Mountains: Game Thread

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kath

Nerwen - suggested two potential wolf pairings if their design is to set her up. Boro and Kit which she then largely discounted given Kit's innocence and Greenie and Zil. Given that is a rather narcissistic (though that doesn't necessarily mean incorrect!) theory I would like to see some evidence for these ideas. Comes to about the same conclusion as me about Laeko. Newbie or newbie wolf. That is the question.

Nerwen to me is coming across as rather paranoid, and has the whole game. Next she'll be accusing us of stealing the strawberries.

Then again, hyper-defensiveness is also seen in Boro, what with the semantics arguments with Greenie and Legate.

Originally Posted by Kath

Greenie is arguing the speculative nature of the discussion is unhelpful, but it can produce ideas. However, I do agree that Nerwen's comment was overly decisive. It was stated as though it was fact rather than suggestion. Then analysed the votes and stated she suspected Inzil and Nerwen as a result. Inzil for voting for the easy target and Nerwen for previous reasons. Greenie then says Inzil and Nerwen don't look like fellows and tries to come up with other wolves. She says if Nerwen is a wolf then Boro may be one. However, in the next sentence she says she is leaning innocent on Boro. Again, can't have it both ways!

My only real issue with Greenie was what I said here, about Greenie's suggestion that Sally was killed because Nerwen was nervous, when it was Greenie who'd been actively voting for Nerwen.

Boro has at times been sharp and spot on, but other times it seems he's been reaching for reasons to suspect me, such as the deal about "backing away" from the fact that I voted for Pitch.

As for Kath, I've found she makes pretty good sense, though I've had an issue or two with her votes, like the Sally one, and the Day 2 vote for me, which honestly looked like a throwaway, even it's me saying so.

Originally Posted by Kath

My choice then is between Greenie and Inzil (Boro would be my third wolf if there was no danger of a double lynch yesterDay).

++GREENIE
I still feel her vote against Nerwen yesterDay was based on some very convoluted reasoning, and as I am leaning innocent on Nerwen I obviously disagree with Greenie's continued suspicion of her.

Interesting. Just like yesterDay....

x/d with Nerwen

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Boro has at times been sharp and spot on, but other times it seems he's been reaching for reasons to suspect me, such as the deal about "backing away" from the fact that I voted for Pitch.

Reaching? "Sorry, Pitch" (looks like the apology) and then "as I said yesterday, I had doubts about your wolvishness" (looks like a clear back track).

I might be reaching on your comments on the end of Day 2, where you pointed out to Nerwen that you were the one who started the Pitch-wagon. But, you backing away from the vote, is not a reach. Whether it was unintentional or you did it to make us think you didn't already know Pitch was innocent, you still backed off it.

As for Kath, I've found she makes pretty good sense, though I've had an issue or two with her votes, like the Sally one, and the Day 2 vote for me, which honestly looked like a throwaway, even it's ,e saying so.

Her sally vote was strange at the time, but not so much anymore now that sally didn't think it a big deal. Her vote for you on Day 2, however was well reasoned and she voted before the G55 and Nerwen really got into it.

You can't really call it a throw away when Kit had voted early for Bom and Greenie voted for Nerwen based on Nerwen's reactions to the Pitch-wagon. And when Kath voted at a time well before the G55-Nerwen business became a mess.

[Inziladun]

Less than three hours til DL.

No Laeko or Azura yet, I see.

We already have one vote.

Kath-->Greenie (1)

And the only one I'm fairly certain is not a wolf is Azura.

Lovely.

x/d with Boro

[Nerwen]

Here's a little deduction for you all.

If that first vote of the Day, Kath's on Greenie, was innocent-on-innocent, then it follows that at least one of the three who have posted since (Zil, me, Boro) must be a wolf. (I happen to know I'm not, but I'm trying to look at this from an objective standpoint.) With three wolves to four innocents, the wolves could jump on an innocent-on-innocent vote toDay. Therefore, either the wolves are playing it particularly safe, for some reason– perhaps Azura's one after all, and thus they can't count on the full pack being around– or that was *not* an innocent-on-innocent vote.

I don't know if this really helps, but it may.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If that first vote of the Day, Kath's on Greenie, was innocent-on-innocent, then it follows that at least one of the three who have posted since (Zil, me, Boro) must be a wolf. (I happen to know I'm not, but I'm trying to look at this from an objective standpoint.)

Well, I'm happy to know you know it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

With three wolves to four innocents, the wolves could jump on an innocent-on-innocent vote toDay. Therefore, either the wolves are playing it particularly safe, for some reason– perhaps Azura's one after all, and thus they can't count on the full pack being around– or that was *not* an innocent-on-innocent vote.

I keep waiting for Laeko and Azura to make an appearance. I still say that if Azura's a wolf, both he and his packmates ought to be ashamed.

[Boromir88]

I don't know how much thinking and analyzing I've got left in me. We should probably pool our preferences, because even if wolves are waiting around for an innocent-on-innocent, it woudn't do much good for us to split our votes either. We decide on one choice, and go with it. The votes may not tell us much tomorrow, but at this point, what are our choices?

I don't want to vote for Azura or Kath today. Right now, I would want to vote...

1. Inzil
2. Laeko
3. Greenie
4. Nerwen

Inzil? Laeko? Convince me otherwise. Now would be a good time.

Edit: crossed with Inzil.

[Inziladun]

Well, what's to say, Boro? "I'm not a wolf"? "Don't lynch me"?

I've tried to answer the things you and others have brought up. I've tried to be open about what I did, and why. Now you just have to make a choice. If you're on the good side, you're a sharp enough player to do the right thing. If you're evil, nothing I say is going to convince you anyway.

[Azura]

++Nerwen


I vote Nerwen because she is very jump about people suspecting her and the tip to make my vote......


(Sry for lurking alot just rly fraking busy..and also I still has my noob card)

[A Little Green]

Phew. I'm back! (Werewolf at 7 AM is - interesting.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

With three wolves to four innocents, the wolves could jump on an innocent-on-innocent vote toDay. Therefore, either the wolves are playing it particularly safe, for some reason– perhaps Azura's one after all, and thus they can't count on the full pack being around– or that was *not* an innocent-on-innocent vote.

I was thinking along the same lines, actually. I must now hope Kath is a wolf because, let's face it, we've already lost if she isn't.

I'd like to try Inzil toDay. Nerwen and Laeko, too. The rest - not so much. Kath - well, either she's a wolf or the game is lost, so basically lynching her would be a safe choice; but as I know none of you can really trust me in this, and there's still the possibility that one of the wolves doesn't show up, in which case the game isn't automatically lost after all, in which case I could think of better candidates than Kath, so be assured I won't vote for her.

Err.. that's one awful sentence, isn't it? Sorry, it's early morning after too little sleep, and I'm thinking as I write.


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil and Azura

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Azura

++Nerwen


I vote Nerwen because she is very jump about people suspecting her and the tip to make my vote......

Oh dear. Just when I was ready to say I back off from Nerwen and go for Inzil.

[A Little Green]

Also - 20 minutes to DL, right? Where is everybody?

[Boromir88]

Ok...let' hope.

++Inziladun

[Boromir88]

I'm going to try to work out all the scenarios of the voting yesterday in my head, so if the running train of thought gets all jumbled up....sorry.

(I) = innocent. (W) = wolf. (R) = Ranger.

Scenario 1.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (I)

Now if this was the case, then the 3 remaining wolves could have piled on to vote Greenie and win. In this scenario then, Inzil, Laeko, and Azura would be the pack. And maybe the reason Inzil didn't jump on to Kath's vote, because he didn't know if either Azura or Laeko would come in to vote. Then...

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

This could have been a newbie wolf mistake, instead of voting for the already voted innocent. But it's making scenario 1 look highly unlikely. Then Nerwen reveals to be the Ranger.

Greenie (I) ---> Inzil (W). Based on she know's she's innocent and she's not going to vote the Ranger so she went with her other possibility.

Laeko (W) ---> Inzil (W).

And this is really what makes Scenario 1 not make any sense. Because if Laeko would have added on to vote Greenie, Inziladun did too. And it would make my vote for Inziladun irrelevant. But Laeko voted for Inziladun, so a wolf on wolf vote doesn't make any sense. Scenario 1 can't make sense, and so Kath voting for Greenie was not an innocent-on-innocent.

[Boromir88]

Scenario 2.

Kath (I) ---> Greenie (W)

Ok. So a wolf already has a vote and so now the pack has to try to get an innocent on innocent.

The next vote is Azura's for Nerwen. Nerwen then reveals to be the Ranger. If Azura's innocent, it would make the pack. Inziladun, Greenie and Laeko. And whether Nerwen revealed or not, there would have been enough votes to lynch her. So this pack formation can't make sense because Greenie winds up voting for Inziladun.

If Azura's a wolf, however, then the Inziladun, Greenie, Azura pack makes more sense then the previous. Perhaps in night planning it was decided Nerwen would be the primary innocent target, and it backfired that she turned out to be the ranger?

Azura (W) ---> Nerwen (R)

Nerwen reveals to be the ranger. Wolf-Greenie already having a vote. Knows she can't vote for Nerwen, because Nerwen, Laeko, and I will make votes to save the ranger thus getting Wolf-Greenie lynched.

Although if Greenie were a wolf here. She's not going to vote for herself, she can't vote for Nerwen without being exposed as sealing her own lynch. So in order to save cover, and sort of take the motto of "let's fight another day," she makes a wolf-on-wolf vote for Inzil. The confusing part here though, is if Greenie, Azura and Inzil were the pack, why would Greenie vote Inzil knowing I have been suspicious of him, and Laeko too? Why not vote the other mate, Azura? Or give a vote to another innocent and hope?

If Greenie's a wolf here, it's a confusing vote choice. But the Inzil, Greenie, Azura pack, in this scenario is more plausible than Scenario 1 (Inzil, Laeko, Azura).

Scenario 3.

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (I)

My brain hurts and I need foods. I can't unravel how likely the a Inzil, Kath, and Azura/Laeko pack in this group looks compared to the scenario 2 pack (Inzil, Greenie, Azura) right now. I just wanted to mention it, before I have to leave, that I'll be heading to this scenario next.

And for the sake of it, Scenario 4 would be...

Kath (W) ---> Greenie (W).

which would make absolutely no sense given the circumstances of the day, so that one is easy enough to figure out.

[Boromir88]

Well now that Azura's voted. Either there is a wolf amongst Kath or Greenie. Or a wolf amongst Azura and Nerwen.

Otherwise, this game would be over, or the wolves are tormenting us? Or some of you are waiting around for your Laeko packmate just to be sure?

Well horror movies cause me to go insane...and if I were in a horror movie with werewolves, I don't even want to know how far my sanity would fall.

[Laeko_Randalis]

Yeah, playing roleplaying games 'til eleven can lead to me not being around, sorry everyone.

I'll be honest, to me Zil and Nerwen look the guiltiest, Zil for, as Boromir pointed out, being extremely unconfrontational and Nerwen for being so defensive.

I guess creating a tie had much more adverse implications than I'd expected, though I do admit my "who will break" comment was pretty stupid. I confess, my crime lies in not wanting to be the newbie who falsely decided someone's fate, particularly given that Galadriel had been putting on a similar defensive air as Nerwen had, and turned out to be one of our gifteds of all things.

And because of that, my vote tonight is

++Zil

[A Little Green]

Oh no oh no oh no. I'm pretty certain everyone is a wolf.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Azura

(Sry for lurking alot just rly fraking busy..and also I still has my noob card)

Not any more, sorry. They come with an expiration date, you know.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Phew. I'm back! (Werewolf at 7 AM is - interesting.)
I was thinking along the same lines, actually. I must now hope Kath is a wolf because, let's face it, we've already lost if she isn't.

Or, from my point of view, we could hope you're a wolf, Greenie.

[Inziladun]

Well! What to do?

Kath-->Greenie (1)
Azura-->Nerwen (1)

[Nerwen]

Anyway– I regret having to do this, but unless Azura is one most deeply-submerged little subs ever, that *was* an innocent on innocent vote.

So– nobody follow that vote! I am the Ranger!

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway– I regret having to do this, but unless Azura is one most deeply-submerged little subs ever, that *was* an innocent on innocent vote.

So– nobody follow that vote! I am the Ranger!

Oh, for.....

x/d with Boro and Greenie

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Or, from my point of view, we could hope you're a wolf, Greenie.

I know. There's really nothing to say to that.

That aside, is there any chance of getting a third candidate lynched? I mean, other than by wolves?
(I'd hazard a guess at no.)

Another question: where are the wolves, why aren't they out and gloating yet?


EDIT: x-ed with Inzil, Nerwen, and Boro

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So– nobody follow that vote! I am the Ranger!

I'd be inclined to believe that. I also know I'm not wolf, and know you can't know that. We're screwed, aren't we?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That aside, is there any chance of getting a third candidate lynched? I mean, other than by wolves?
(I'd hazard a guess at no.)

It doesn't look likely at this point.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Another question: where are the wolves, why aren't they out and gloating yet?

Maybe Laeko is indeed one, and isn't here?

x/d with Greenie