Game Thread: TIG XCII - Disaster by the Lake

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

You're forgetting about the third gifted. The Ranger can do miracles.

Meaning?

Originally Posted by G55

.
No, we won't. She can't choose her pick during the Day. And it's supposed to be a surprise during the Night, a secret weapon, so why would we tell the wolves "sally's hunting X toNight"?

Um... I think Greenie's talking about a Sally–as–Cobbler scenario there, G55– though she certainly could have been clearer about it.

Originally Posted by G55

@Kit: If you think that sally could be the cobbler, which role do you think Nog has? They can't both be cobblers, and Nog just as good as fake-revealed Seer.

Well, what he did yesterDay was darned peculiar, I'll grant you that. Are you sure he meant it to be taken as a reveal, though? Seers can't usually see the Cobbler, after all. (Don't think that's been clarified for this game.)

Originally Posted by G55

So far there's me and Bom thinking sally has the village's best intentions at heart, and Greenie and Nerwen thinking that she doesn't, and Kit undecided. Is that right?

I'd say I'm more "undecided". I don't think what she's doing is in the village's interests– but I can't yet rule out that she thinks it is. It's hard to know where you are with Sally– she likes to pull weird stunts now and then, whatever her role.

[Nerwen]

Wait a minute–

Originally Posted by G55

I think I have been pretty clear that I do not think Nog is wolf. That being said, he's most likely a cobbler known to the village. A cobbler messes things up - esecially one who is revealed. If he says "X is wolf", should I think that X is really not a wolf and Nog is just tricking me, or is he using reverse psychology on me, or is that just a random name drawn out of nowhere? I have better things to do toDay except for puzzling this out. And I do not want to chase down cobblers. I want to get a wolf. Now.

I didn't get this before. Are you saying you *don't* want to lynch Nog, and that we should have realised this *because* you think he's a cobbler?

[Nerwen]

Anyway, here it is–

Pitch, Day Two.
#118.
Thinks Kath was a trailless kill. Still suspicious of Nog for his gifted-speculations. Asks Lottie to explain why she said Nog and Greenie might be packmates.

Comment: I don't think she has, yet. Lottie?

#128.
"Flip-flopping" about Kit. Her posts look "fair, balanced and independent", but she has done a very peculiar about-face overnight on Greenie, which he finds suspicious.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So yes, I know, wolves can be consistent while innocents may need to change their minds, but I'd still like to hear how "making a decent point" and "the best case for a lynch candidate" became "said a lot with saying a lot" and twisting words? Especially as Kit seems to me to be largely echoing Nog's self defense.

#132.
Accepts Nog's point that Agan, not he, was the first to speculate about G55.


#136.
Rule discussion; disagrees with Shasta that Agan is "witch-hunting" Pitch himself, but wants to know how Nog changed from "someone you [Agan] trusted enough to save his life yesterDay to a baddie you could imagine voting for toDay?"


#141. After Kit's bad-news announcement.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Dang! I actually considered voting Kit toDay (see #128 above), but under these circumstances that would feel really mean.

Anyway, I'm sorry to hear that, Kit; hope it's not that bad.

#144.

Originally Posted by Pitch

What?

I mean, she might be for all I know, but do you have reasons or are you completely bonkers now?

Well, yes, it's a very good question, isn't it? Where *is* Nogrod, anyway?


#150.
Shasta-Agan row "interesting". Shasta's case on Agan is "twisted", and Shasta himself rather reminiscent of Shastawolf. But he 'just can't read him". Agan, meanwhile, is "a sphinx".

Comment: this post does look quite a bit like Seer-code for "opinions not based on my dreams". I doubt that alone would be enough, though.


#154
Dubious about Greenie's apparent trust in him.


#157
"Could get behind" Nog's (inevitable!) suggestion to lynch the quiet ones.


#162.
Wants to hear more from Agan. Would like to give Nog, Shasta and Greenie more time. Has "seen nothing furry in Lottie (yet)".

Comment: that last is another *slightly* Seerish remark.


#169.
Thinks Nog and Agan could be packmates; "not fully at ease" about Shasta, but not ready to vote him.


#181.Votes Agan, to find out "if [Nog] speaks truth", promising to "examine Shasta toMorrow" if Agan turns out innocent.

Well, that was a lot of use. The only things really noteworthy are his suspicions on Shasta and Kit, especially his saying he intended to vote the latter. However, it doesn't seem all that likely either of those would be taken as Seer-hints– his suspicion of Kit, for example, is clearly based on her posting. Is it possible a Kitwolf or a Shastawolf wanted him killed just because he was looking too dangerous? Or is that a reach? It does seem a pretty clumsy move.

[satansaloser2005]

I thought there were only eight people left in the game. At that point, it's essentially game over unless we can be sure we kill the right person. By revealing as the hunter, I removed myself as a lynch target, which increased our chances of getting a wolf toDay, and if we realized partway through the Day that our target was another gifted, the hunter is always preferable to the ranger or seer as a lynch target. (ETA because the Downs somehow ate part of my post: Desperate times call for desperate measures, and it's the hunter's job to take drastic and suicidal measures.)

However, there are nine people left. Thus, I should have waited to reveal until toMorrow. I miscalculated and made a really, really stupid mistake, and I apologize for that.

This is going so very well.

[satansaloser2005]

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

[Nerwen]

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

EDIT:X'd with Sally and G55. I'm replying to Sally here.

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

#196 - sally reveals.

#209 - she finds her mistake.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But didn't you know there were nine people by the time you revealed?

EDIT:X'd with Sally and G55. I'm replying to Sally here.

Yeah. After I'd made the reveal post, I realized I couldn't count correctly.

Yesterday was a really long day. I have no other excuse.


ETA: x'd with Galadriel, who also confirms my stupidity

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

Unless this is a *very* special Ranger, he or she can't force the wolves to pick the Hunter– which I think is what was under discussion at that point.

He left a few "clues" just before his "Agan is a cobbler". I am quite sure of it.

Like what?

Originally Posted by G55

Clarifying. Looking from his perspective, yesterDay he probably expected us to lynch him toDay, thus giving the wolves another Day in the lead. I suggest lynching a wolf, not a cobbler, so that we won't give the baddies the lead. Cobbler counts innocent in the tally, and I would like to use that as our advantage. Lynching wolf is more important than getting rid of a cobbler, especially at this stage.

Originally Posted by Sally

If we're in doubt about whether someone is wolf or cobbler, that person is not a wise lynch target for toDay.

But barring Seer-dreams, there is *always* that doubt in any game with a cobbler. We'd never lynch anyone at all, following your argument.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by G55

#196 - sally reveals.

#209 - she finds her mistake.

Originally Posted by Sally

Yeah. After I'd made the reveal post, I realized I couldn't count correctly.

Yesterday was a really long day. I have no other excuse.

Mmn– except that you list nine villagers at #194, made before your reveal. I can't be the only one to have noticed that.

[Loslote]

Alright, so...Sally's the Hunter. I'll believe her; revealing now seems like the sort of thing she would do. In fact, I think I've seen her do something very similar before as the Hunter (or maybe she was the Ranger and Shasta was the Hunter...it was a very confusing game). I agree that we shouldn't lynch her toDay, but rather than argue about how helpful her reveal was, I'd prefer to accept that she's done it and move on. Look on the positive side: we've narrowed down the list a bit. Our chances of killing us a wolf are a bit better than before.

Speaking of killing us a wolf, I'll be back in about half an hour with time to actually talk about suspiciony things.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Alright, so...Sally's the Hunter. I'll believe her; revealing now seems like the sort of thing she would do. In fact, I think I've seen her do something very similar before as the Hunter (or maybe she was the Ranger and Shasta was the Hunter...it was a very confusing game).

I don't know which game you mean, but yes, she's done this kind of thing before. Only– see my post at #230. Either she's *very* confused, or I've caught her in a lie. I'm not too willing to trust her after that.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mmn– except that you list nine villagers at #194, made before your reveal. I can't be the only one to have noticed that.

That post was my reveal, Nerwen.

Originally Posted by me

I think our best option four toDay is, well, the obvious.

Massive reveals, everyone? If so, I'd be happy to start (or rather, finish).

There's no coming back after something that obvious, and it wouldn't have been right to delete or mass-edit my post even if I had realized the full extent of my mistake right off.

I realized my numbers were wrong after I hit submit (which actually means Galadriel's summation is inaccurate, but no matter) and replaced the eight with the nine. Of course then I kept accidentally operating under the assumption that there were eight, which doesn't help with the clarity thing.


Essentially I failed at math. I corrected my number, but kept messing up my math for a few posts until finally I realized, "Oh, nine? That made this whole thing really stupid."


Also, my internet exploded for a bit, so this is x'd since my last post. I'll be back later after I (re)do my analysis of Lottie.

[Loslote]

Sally: I believe her claim to be the Hunter. Not much more to say, is there?
Nog: I've been flip-flopping on him all game. Day 1 he seemed very furry, Day 2 I thought he sounded better, but that "Agan is the cobbler" comment of his yesterDay doesn't sit right with me at all.
Kitanna: She seems reasonable from what I've seen. I haven't played with her much before; I can't really get a grip on her innocence or lack thereof.
Galadriel: She seemed reasonable for a while, but her attitude towards Nog and Sally is a bit worrisome. She seems to decide what she thinks of people and refuses to even look at their posts anymore because she doesn't think her mind can be changed. That seems much more like a wolf, who does know whether or not someone is a wolf and thus doesn't have to wonder whether or not they're wrong than an innocent, who has to keep recalculating and questioning their judgement.
Bom: I can't get a read on him at all.
Shasta: He hasn't posted as much as I would have expected, but I've agreed with most of it, and I can't decide if that makes me nervous about him or more comfortable with him.
Nerwen: Her logic seems sound, but I don't agree with all the conclusions she draws. Really not sure what to make of her.
Greenie: I want to think her innocent, because a lot of what she says seems like it should be innocent, but there's still a nagging feeling in the back of my mind whenever I read her posts...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Meaning?

Exactly what I said. Kit is forgetting that the Ranger is also awake at Night.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, what he did yesterDay was darned peculiar, I'll grant you that. Are you sure he meant it to be taken as a reveal, though? Seers can't usually see the Cobbler, after all. (Don't think that's been clarified for this game.)

He left a few "clues" just before his "Agan is a cobbler". I am quite sure of it.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I didn't get this before. Are you saying you *don't* want to lynch Nog, and that we should have realised this *because* you think he's a cobbler?

Clarifying. Looking from his perspective, yesterDay he probably expected us to lynch him toDay, thus giving the wolves another Day in the lead. I suggest lynching a wolf, not a cobbler, so that we won't give the baddies the lead. Cobbler counts innocent in the tally, and I would like to use that as our advantage. Lynching wolf is more important than getting rid of a cobbler, especially at this stage.

Edit: xed with SallyX2