TIG XCIII - Betrayal at Henneth Annûn (Game thread)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

And to question my getting the hang of this - yes, I'm a newbie to the forum, but I'm not new to the game, although this is a bit of a different version than the ones I've played before, both online and live. It might explain something.

Oh? Well, I guess then I don't need these anymore, if I decide to start going after you? *takes off fluffy-soft gloves*

In all seriousness, it definitely appears you know the game well, so I for one, will no longer treat you newbily. Which may not be a pleasant thing, but it would help if I actually suspected you seriously for something.

And since I basically agree with you on Inzil, I'm more inclined to trust you for the time being.

I know when he's busy he can seem rushed and agreeing. But he also should know by now saying you want to hear more from sally and Bom is like just saying something to say it. If that makes sense? They're easy targets for wolves because it's easy to get people to agree "vote for the submarines!"

But I know they're also frustrating for wolves, because if you don't say anything, than wolves can't twist anything to make it look bad. See, me, it's easy. If the wolves really wanted to get me lynched I'm sure they can find a bunch of stuff to manipulate and use against me...the trouble is I bombard with long and fanciful posts, it's overwhelming and usually not worth the effort. Much easier to continue the "sally and Bom need to say more" argument...when in fact you know

1) They won't

leading to...

2) Easier to convince innocents to lynch 'em

This is at least where I understand Rune's frustration, since he's been out of the dynamics for a while, and probably hasn't played with many of us...I can't remember the last time I played a game with Rune. Anyway, he seems genuinely not used to this many submarines and fluff posters.

Edit: Believe it or not crossed with Glirdan...visitor came who I had to entertain briefly.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

As has been said, it looks like laying odds that Nog was taken out while it was safe to do so is probably what happened.

Going through Day 2 thus far now -

Originally Posted by Boro

That is what has me worried the most at the moment...that is there seems to be a lot of "Agan and Boro are probably both innocent" going around. It could easily be true, of course, but that seems to be the same conclusion everyone's reached, which is kind of strange...Agan, what do you think?

That does have me concerned, to be honest. Could be just that I'm me and you're you, though.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

I dont know about that one. I'm more inclined to agree with Boro. I mean, with the exception of Nate, we all know how dangerous an innocent/gifted Noggy is to the Wolves. Its already been said: why him? Well, it was a pretty traceless kill for them. Yet the same could be said had it been myself, or Shasta or any of the other quiet ones. I feel a nervous pack would have been a little more hesitant in their kill selection which also leads me to believe that the Wolves want us to think this way. For all we know, either you yourself dear sallycake or Boro or maybe even both could have been the ones planning this during the night to help steer the conversation in the direction you so choose.

Eh? I'm not really sure what you're saying here, because it looks like you're agreeing with Boro in one breath and then suspecting him in the next.

Originally Posted by Glirdan

However, there are others who voted for G55 who need to be looked at it....or in Shasta's case, need to be heard from.

*raises eyebrow* Really now.

I'm going to ignore that comment for now, save for one of my own about stones and glass houses, and focus on your theory regarding Lottie - which is interesting; however it doesn't look any different to me than normal D1 Lottie when there's nothing yet to go on. In fact, I've seen worse from Lottie than "jumpiness" (generally something to do with something someone posted in IC.)

Originally Posted by Inzil

I don't really see the benefit of trying to gauge the "nervousness' of the pack from their Night-kill. I think it's enough that it seems very unlikely Nog could have been seen as a potential Seer. Thus, there is little to gain at this point by still focusing on the issue.

This is an issue I have every game - I don't understand why people decide not to look at the information that's right in front of them. Nogrod was chosen to be killed for some reason - why not make use of that information?

Originally Posted by Inzil

It's worth noting again how quickly Nate/Pom (did we ever decide on which nick was the favorite?) has gotten the hang of this. Could be a sign of a sharp, natural player, but a more sinister reason has to be at least considered.

This is probably one of the more specious reasons I've seen for suspecting someone. However, it's generally a given that a newbie is considered "hard to lynch" in their first game, so I don't really see Inzilawolf making an effort to lynch an innocent Nate. Still.

Originally Posted by Nate[/quote

Shastanis Althreduin votes for G55 for her habit of trying to move the conversation away from herself. This is the only observation she makes. Says she won’t vote for Rune, saying she agrees with what he said without further defining why.

Heh. It's actually "he".

Originally Posted by Boro

But I know they're also frustrating for wolves, because if you don't say anything, than wolves can't twist anything to make it look bad. See, me, it's easy. If the wolves really wanted to get me lynched I'm sure they can find a bunch of stuff to manipulate and use against me...the trouble is I bombard with long and fanciful posts, it's overwhelming and usually not worth the effort. Much easier to continue the "sally and Bom need to say more" argument...when in fact you know

1) They won't

leading to...

2) Easier to convince innocents to lynch 'em

I don't know that I agree with this - generally that leads to...

3) Deciding "we can't afford to waste a lynch on a submarine - if they win they don't deserve it" and moving on.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

But I know they're also frustrating for wolves, because if you don't say anything, than wolves can't twist anything to make it look bad. See, me, it's easy. If the wolves really wanted to get me lynched I'm sure they can find a bunch of stuff to manipulate and use against me...the trouble is I bombard with long and fanciful posts, it's overwhelming and usually not worth the effort. Much easier to continue the "sally and Bom need to say more" argument...when in fact you know

1) They won't

leading to...

2) Easier to convince innocents to lynch 'em

This is at least where I understand Rune's frustration, since he's been out of the dynamics for a while, and probably hasn't played with many of us...I can't remember the last time I played a game with Rune. Anyway, he seems genuinely not used to this many submarines and fluff posters.

Come on, Boro. Do you really think submarines should be allowed to just lie low while the loudmouths duke it out? It's pretty difficult to get a handle on people when they either don't post, or stick to banter.

[Pomegranate]

Shasta: Sorry. I'll get these right eventually. The images in my head get clearer all the time.

[Bom Tombadillo]

Bllllrg. As Glirdan said, awfully quiet today. Maybe the wolves are trying to keep their heads down?

I wasn't really bothered by PomPom's swift skill - I assumed she'd done what I did, which was to read several games before actually joining one (or the 'Downs themselves). I did consider the alternative but since it was D1 at the time, she got a newbie pass.

Regarding this:

Nogrod was chosen to be killed for some reason - why not make use of that information?

from Shasta, I do believe the problem is: what information? Nog made a total of four posts, all substance-less with the exception of a statement that he thinks both Boro and Agan innocent. No suspicions, and nobody suspected him.

So, we've basically got the same things to discuss as yesterday, except we're now two innocents closer to defeat.

I'll check in periodically to see if the aforementioned wolves decide to poke their heads up, and possibly to mingle with you commons. No promises, though.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't know that I agree with this - generally that leads to...

3) Deciding "we can't afford to waste a lynch on a submarine - if they win they don't deserve it" and moving on.

Heh, yeah, guess it does usually turn out that way.

I like the points in Shasta's post, and therefor, barring something unforseen, won't vote for him today.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Come on, Boro. Do you really think submarines should be allowed to just lie low while the loudmouths duke it out? It's pretty difficult to get a handle on people when they either don't post, or stick to banter.

No. I've actually had this convo with tp (and I think Agan?) before. It's increasingly difficult to do much of anything if there's a bunch of fluff posting. And it used to be a great wolfy tactic because when a village gets loaded with people like tp, Nog, Agan, Sauce, Eomer, myself...and etc there were some pretty epic firestorms. And the pack could sit back, let us lynch eachother off, or maybe one of them would be a wolf to stir the entire pot.

Ah well, that trip down WW memory doesn't help much...but maybe I just need a good spar again...any takers?

Thing to realize is though, it's been changing for a while now, and there is more quiet and watch than active pot-stirrers. I mean, thankfully Inzil I never feel like you're submarining, but I also wouldn't classify you into the dwindling list of loud blabberers either. You've got a style that suits you, good, hopefully you like and enjoy it.

Point being here, hope sally doesn't mind if I use her as an example. She's really not that hard to figure out, and she definitely posts a lot but feels more inclined to amuse the mod, and if innocent, obviously will help by figuring out who's judgement she can trust and hopefully that leads to lynching wolves. But she'll always for the most part, keep whatever her thoughts are secret, until she figures out who's trustworthy and who isn't. Same thing, she's got a style, it suits her and hopefully she enjoys it.

I guess someone's got to try to get more activity out of the submarines? I gave up on that many years ago. Good luck. But don't confuse quiet behavior with blatant unhelpfulness. You know as well as I do, BNs need to give off an impression of being contributive and helping.

In the end, Agan's comment to Greenie is quite appropriate:

Boro is never genuine. No matter what his role, he always has something up his sleeve and is no good to trust.

Sad, but true. Not-trusting me is probably the smartest thing she's ever done. Although our history is a bit different, since her first wolvish game...against the counsels of her pack-mate Mith, I conned her into attacking me. Our WW-relationship is totally built on distrust...it's a lovely thing.

Thing is, in a pack environment, if necessary I will always take the noose to serve the better benefit of the pack...and that means the innocents can never trust me. But you also know, by now, that I will ruthlessly go after packmates if it will make me look better and more trusty to the village...therefor mates are silly if they trust me.

In an individual environment, I rarely ever want to be lynched...I mean seriously who likes that? But being able only to trust my own mind, again, I will do whatever necessary to save my innocent and pretty neck. Which means, who ever wants to tango, better bring a sword, because I do bring swords to dance offs.

[A Little Green]

First off, sorry I'm here this late! I have less time than I had counted on, but I'll do my best.

Now, the first thing that surprises me: we lynched a Gifted yesterDay (sadly, that's not the surprising part ) and yet I see very little discussion of how that came about. Sure, innocents make mistakes all the time, but I'll eat my hat if the Galwagon comprised only of innocent villagers. I'll have a look at it in a bit.

Originally Posted by Boro

Basically my head is about to explode with "do I continue pursuing Agan or is everyone right, that she's innocent too."

The whole of that post was rather curious, but this part especially - basically you make it sound like your pursuing Agan is an act, something you do, instead of a belief in her guilt. Now I understand your jump on her yesterDay was partly to fish for reactions, well, you did that. Won't work any more now you've come clean with it. Therefore, if you're innocent your dilemma looks pretty straightforward: if you actually suspect Agan, pursue her. If you don't, then don't (unless there's some further scheming involved, in which case go ahead. )

Originally Posted by Glirdy

*goes to airport to fly to everyone's house just to tell them to start posting*

Aww, make sure to drop by!


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Runne and Glirdy

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

It would appear that our main source will be post 60, in which Galadriel makes a list of her thoughts about the participants so far. Her main suspects are Inziladun and I, but she does not have specific case againt me. Inziladun she finds is commenting on things without actually getting involved and this she finds unnerving.



According to the post Galadriel seems to have been a bit uneasy about Aganzir and Pommy as well, although it is of quite vague nature. She does think that Boromir raises a good case against Aganzir, but not good enough for any action to be taken. Pommy is identified as a person that are merely repeating what others have said rather than coming up with theories of her own; she is given benefit of the doubt.


Especially the suspicion against Aganzir seems vague, when you take into consideration that later on Galadriel sort of defends Aganzir in post 49. Also it is around this time Galadriels posts becomes focused on Aganzir’s Serious-Joke list, a concept she never comes to grip with.



It seems clear that Galadriel identified BN behaviour as being active, but non-committing. Since I have also been accused for such behaviour, it would mean that most of the people she seemed uneasy about could be put in this category.

In theory she was right, it is a tactic that has been used a fair few times by evil doers. So there. . . a bit of advice from beyond the grave.


I will try to look a bit closer at Inziladun and maybe look at the voting pattern, though I am normally not very good at analysing the later.

Edit: Crossed with Glirdy and Greenie.

[A Little Green]

All right, had a look at the Gal-wagon.

Unless I missed something, the whole suspicion of Gal started with first Agan and then Lottie both accusing her of jumpiness. Pom agrees with them. Lottie momentarily backtracks when finding out Agan had the same argument in almost precisely the same phrasing.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I did notice something that G55 said earlier that reminds me terribly of a ploy I've used as a wolf - near the beginning, she tried to get people to drop the subject in a "okay, done, move it along folks, nothing to see here" kind of way. That much is just an observation, but I know it's something I've done as a wolf when I felt like too much heat was about to be focused my way.

Shasta comes up with a new argument against Gal, which looks more or less valid even though it's proven wrong now.

Bom then defends Gal:

Nice G55 just seems to want answers and avoid misunderstandings (nasty, nassssty misunderstandings) to me - so would we, were we less busy reveling in the chaos.

Originally Posted by Lottie

G55 still tips my wolf-dar, partially because of the jumpy thing earlier (I know it's probably a pick-up from Agan's post, but that doesn't make it any less valid a point) and partially because her posts so far seem like they're contributing, but when you look closer, they aren't actually that helpful

Lottie returns to her old argument and adds a new one. I'm really torn about this. It would be kind of an odd move for a BN, this very open backtracking and then backtracking again, but then again, I could see an evil Lottie noticing how popular the Gal-suspicion was growing and deciding to follow it after all.

Originally Posted by Agan

Gal. I didn't really mind her until her sudden and desperate interest in my list which is just weird. What does it really matter?

I'm not exactly sure of the validity of this argument. I mean, yes, it was kind of odd of Gal to focus so strongly on Agan's list, but I've yet to discover how it made her look suspicious.

Originally Posted by Sally

So, Galwolfriel, what are your plans for the Night?

This, I think, is a rather odd one-liner from Sally.

Originally Posted by Agan

Ah so we face the hard decision: should we vote for a suspicious-ish (and with day 1 reasons at that) loud player, or a submarine?

Personally I quite like to sink submarines, but once I've got it into my head that someone is suspicious, they will keep irking me until I know for sure.

Agan is agonizing.

Originally Posted by Rune

Voting Potential:
Galadriel55: My suspicion is based on the arguments of Lottie, Shasta and my own initial annoyance. The jumpiness/many but not very helpful posts, mixed with the attempts to dismiss one discussion, whilst on the same time going on and on about Aganzir’s silly/serious post does present a case. That being said I she is right now the one I am least likely to vote for, because none of the above are very incriminating and because she has shown willingness to participate and move the debate forward (to some degree).

Rune effectively summarizes the case against Gal, agrees with it, and says he isn't likely to vote for her anyway.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I don't recall ever seeing G55 mention the whole "dismissal" thing, even though I mentioned it twice. It may have gotten lost in the shuffle, but even so...

++G55

Shasta is the first to vote Gal. Not sure what the "dismissal" mentioned here is. Clarification please?

Lottie votes Gal next, x-posting with Shasta.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I can see the merits of the G55 suspicion, though I also agree with Greenie that G55 has been a frequent target for the baddies to lynch. I might vote for her, though it seems too easy somehow.

Inzil is wavering...

Originally Posted by Agan

I feel your pain.

...and Agan agonizes some more. She also says she finds Inzil innocent.

Originally Posted by Sally

Bom or Galadriel. Opinions?

Sally agonizes too, except she doesn't look like she's in much of an agony.

Agan, finished with her agonizing, votes Gal. I don't like this vote a whole lot; I don't really understand Agan's point against Gal, and the timing of the vote as well as the hesitation before it look a little too convenient to my taste.

Zil votes Gal, too:

Looks worse than Lottie, I hate voting Bom Day 1, and it doesn't look like I'll have any takers on Sally. I'll not waste my vote.

Others have expressed concern over this particular vote, and I can see why. It's very similar to Agan's, in both timing and the almost over-the-top hesitancy. I doubt they're BNs together, wouldn't be surprised if one of them is.

Sally, meanwhile, ends up voting Bom. This doesn't look any better to me than Agan and Inzil, though. In fact, I'm rather uneasy with how she first popped in that joking one-liner about Galwolfriel, enhancing everyone's image of Gal as a possible wolf; then made sure people know she might vote Gal, so the other potential Gal-voters knew their votes weren't going to be throwaways; and finally voting Bom instead of the more-or-less certain lynch Gal, so as to keep her hands clean.

Lottie and Shasta are the ones who seem most certain of Gal's guilt. This makes them look slightly better to me; though Lottie's double Legate-180 still makes her look fishy. Agan brings up new points against Gal, hesitates a lot, then is the third to vote her. Inzil is diplomatic and undecided and also ends up voting Gal at a crucial point. Rune is a bit like Sally (and I bet he loves the comparison) in that he agrees with the Gal case but doesn't go with it. His reasons for doing this look a bit better than Sally's, though.

Based on this, I feel worst about Agan and Sally, and bad about Inzil and Lottie.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan and Rune

[A Little Green]

One further point concerning the Galwagon: while I'm pretty sure there is at least one wolf among that lot, I'm equally sure that at least one wolf kept their nose well clean of the whole Gal business. But since I don't have time to read all of yesterDay now, they'll have to wait.

Warning: I need to be in bed in half an hour so I'm going to vote rather soon. Right now I'm thinking of going for either Agan or Sally. Thoughts?

[Inziladun]

There's been some good stuff that's come about here in the recent few hours, but no time to line-by-line respond.
I'm off work on holiday. However, in addition to my 8 year old, I'm currently having to keep an eye on her 6 year old cousin as well. Not an environment conducive to WW.

YesterDay I did put G55 and Bom in somewhat of the same boat. There didn't seem to be a lot of substance, and both do tend to be easy targets. It seems like Bom gets more early votes though as a rule, and it's at the point that I just don't like voting for him Day 1. I agree that it's a habit I should probably get out of, but there it is.

And Boro, I usually find Sally unnerving for all the reasons you cite. She usually does have a lot of amusing stuff going, and that's one of the reasons this game is so much fun here.
However, this particular time around it just had a different feel, hence my lukewarm desire to vote for her.

I would put Bom and Sally in the same category toDay. Very under the radar and hardly even visible. Could vote for either, if nothing better comes to mind.

x/d with Greenie

[Glirdan]

So, as we all know, nothing of any real substance from her for quite some time (or anyone for that matter, myself included) until Agan joins and has her "suspicions list" with this reasoning for thinking G55 guilty:

Galadriel55. Says Bom is guilty of making jokes when he starts making them. Does this mean she didn't take it as a joke when he said he's wolves with her and sally? Encouraged by Boro, she takes her guilty accusations of randomness entirely too far.

After reading through the rest of the post, Im inclined to believe that it was done for two reasons:

1) To try and keep up the fun and yet at the same time

2) To start steering the conversation in a more serious direction.

Shortly after this our beloved deceased decides to make a brief summary of anything she had found important, leaving out all the banter and sticking to what she finds is important. Once Boro started giving his suspicions of Agan, G55 defended Agan, despite Agan's previous accusation, then proceeds to ask Boro and Agan to explain themselves as their behavior is confusing her as she doesn't find either to be very evil. Lottie then joins the and believes G55's behavior to be fishy and puts G55 at the top of her suspect list.

After Boro has given his explanation as to why he finds Agan suspicious, G55 still defends her, thinking her first post of the Day still to be joking, but still asked Agan for more clarification.

Now here's something Shasta said which I never really thought about until now:

I did notice something that G55 said earlier that reminds me terribly of a ploy I've used as a wolf - near the beginning, she tried to get people to drop the subject in a "okay, done, move it along folks, nothing to see here" kind of way. That much is just an observation, but I know it's something I've done as a wolf when I felt like too much heat was about to be focused my way.

I definitely see his point here, having used that tactic myself. Yet not just as a baddie. It's a tactic used quite often by any Gifted/Baddie to keep heat of of them. And now we know why she was acting in such a manner.

G55 the makes a quick analysis post on everyone, and only has two real suspicions: Rune and Zil:

Originally Posted by G55

Inziladun: gives the impression of commenting on things without involving himself anywhere. Pokes here and there but stays aloof. This behaviour unnerves me.

Originally Posted by G55

Rune: something ticks me off about him. Maybe I'm just not used to his playing style yet, since it's our first game together. The vibes comming from him are not good.

Agan returns and clarify's her first post for G55, but she still remains confused. Agan considers voting her with this reasoning:

I'm actually thinking about voting for you. It's partly your strange insistence on my list, partly your slight jumpiness (compared to everyone else), and partly what Lottie just said about your helpfulness without contributing a lot.

G55 defends herself against the accusations from Lottie and Agan. This continues for a short while with G55 continuously defending herself.

The Voting

Shasta: First to cast a vote as well as first to cast a vote for her, with this reasoning:

I don't recall ever seeing G55 mention the whole "dismissal" thing, even though I mentioned it twice. It may have gotten lost in the shuffle, but even so...

Lottie: Second to vote as well as second to vote for her, albeit she cross-posted with Shasta. Gave no reasoning in the vote post itself but had been suspecting her the whole Day

Agan: third to cast her vote for G55. The votes at this time were:

G55 - 2 (Shasta and Lottie)
Bom - 1 (Rune)
Rune - 1 (Bom)
Lottie - 1 (Greenie)

Also had been suspecting G55 for a better part of he Day

Zil: fourth vote for her and says this for his reasoning:

Looks worse than Lottie, I hate voting Bom Day 1, and it doesn't look like I'll have any takers on Sally. I'll not waste my vote.

Voting came to a close with the votes as this:

G55 - 4 (Shasta, Lottie, Agan and Zil)
Bom - 3 (Rune, Sally and G55)
Rune - 1 (Bom)
Lottie - 1 (Greenie)

Did Not Vote - Nate, Nog and myself.

(Dead innocents italicized)

Overall Thoughts

- Lottie seems the least suspicious of he four who voted, having had her suspicions from early on in he Day
- Zil is really starting to stand out to me, having had no real suspicion of her before. His explanation is also rather interesting, what with the "I will not throw away my vote" tactic.
- Rune and Bom's votes for each other caught my eye. Something about it bothers me, what, Im not sure.
- Agan and Shasta bear some watching, but both had reasonable an sound reasons for voting G55
- Sally's vote for Bom also has me concerned. It almost looks like a last minute attempt to save G55

EDIT: Seems I cross posted with everyone since my last