TIG XCIV– WHere the Stars Are Strange (Game thread)

[Nogrod]

Is it a totally alien concept to you G55 that people can change their minds, especially if they are given reasons for it? (I know there are people who stick to their beliefs whatever the case, or even if reality proves them wrong time after time, but that is a discussion on politics and religion I'm not willing to engage here.)

Well, anyway, you actually do quote my post where I explain my change of heart. I mean the sudden Lommywagon did raise some eyebrows and when I read your post where you explained your... well what could it be, change of heart (? ) to suddenly suspect Lommy when she started gathering suspicion... well that made me suspect you - and thus to reconsider the innocence of your outburst as well.

It was not only the fact that you suddenly jumped on the fast-emerging Lommy-train, but the way you did it. (Explained in my #122)

Heh, I saw Lommy posted about you confidence of being alive, to write such a strong "defence by attack" I'd say, so I'm not going to say anything more about it.


Okay. I also have a host of things to do, but will take a quick look at Rikae before I go.


EDIT: X'd with a few it seems

[Nogrod]

So looking after what might have made the wolves pick Rikae... (I'm only looking at those posts where she voices suspicion or dissatisfaction to some as I don't have time for a "full analysis")

Originally Posted by Rikae #27

I don't much care for Inzil and Bom's empty posts, Gal's banter... which does look odd... and Green's post that points out its oddness. Yep, I contradict myself, I contain multitudes, etc.

Originally Posted by Rikae #32

Inzil, as I said, I agree with Legate. Posts that demand people work on catching wolves, rather than work on it themselves, are empty posts.

Originally Posted by Rikae #36

If you're looking for people who aren't making useful posts, Lottie, I wonder: what do you think of Galadriel55?

Originally Posted by RIkae #42

I'm well aware of the risk of lynching an innocent who happens to look "odd" on day one. In fact, I'd suggest it may be more logical to leave Inzil alone for toDay precisely because he has made himself a target.

Galadriel, I'm sorry if I offended you. I can be insensitive at times. However, if you'll look again at my post, it implies just as much about Lottie and her consistency as it does about you, and as for

... I did.

Originally Posted by Rikae #53

Now Inzil, come out and claim what you're trying to claim so we can all see how implausible it really is!

Originally Posted by Rikae #61

did Inzil really join Lottie's "suspicion" (which I took as a joke) of Pitch for his "manage to", or no? I don't see where he did. Where is this coming from, otherwise?

Also, I'd like to point out that if Nogrod is innocent he will decide that I'm guilty at some point and that I have some complicated scheme up my sleeve that only Nogrod could invent.
If he fails to do so, I'll suspect him.

Originally Posted by Rikae #71

Greenie's vote for Boro looks more or less ok to me, precisely because it is so out-of-the-blue and gut-feelingish, if you get what I mean. Not to say that it's wabbit season or anything, but Greenie herself seems all right.

Eönwë is sort of blending into the background, and he seems to be doing it by hanging around in the thicket of meta-discussion, poking at multiple people while refraining from singling anyone out in a way that might attract too much attention. I'm going to keep my eye on him.

Originally Posted by Rikae #78

Haha, I just realized I mistook a coyote for a wabbit... that could be a dangerous mistake!

Originally Posted by Rikae #103

I'm going to bed and unlikely to be back again before DL, so I'm going to be with my original suspicion... I was going to vote for someone else, but the recent posts from

++Inzil

have a bad vibe to them, as if he's confident that he shifted the focus and can see one of the other suspects lynched. An innocent who dodged suspicion might be relieved, but would still be concerned about placing his own vote correctly and finding the actual wolves, and the tone of his posts seems off in light of that. In addition to my earlier suspicions it puts him in the lead.

Inzil clearly bears the brunt of her suspicion - and the vote in the end (even and maybe importantly notwithstanding that she says she was going to vote someone else!). She suspects Eönwë somewhat (only makes one point in one post though), seems to be engaged with Lottie and is pretty nasty with G55.

And then there is this odd thing about wabbits and coyotes & liking Greenie's vote on Boro - which whatever it means seems to suggest something about Boro.

So if someone felt Rikae was a threath enough to kill her it might have been Zil, Boro, or looking at how G55 reacts to things, then her (although she should have packmates to talk sense to her not to react like that). Or then someone just wished it to look that way.


EDIT: X'd with Pitch

[Pomegranate]

Oh, you’re right, Pitch. Though the vote is still in the line of the votes that ensured Bom’s lynch, not too far from the tie yet. But for further reference, Eonwe’s vote was fourth and Nogrod’s vote was fifth.

And then there’s Legate. Last night, I was convinced enough by Shasta’s notifications that I did start suspecting him more than anyone else. I’m not too convinced about Shasta either, but he did go through the messages pretty throughoutly, and especially since I had no previous opinion on Legate, I felt it was worth checking out. And Legate, unlike some others mentioned, did have a habit of sticking into his opinions. First this whole issue with Inzil, which to me seems more his making than Inzil’s. He keeps repeating the same point over and over, and over an issue after all as minor as one “This is not what we’re supposed to be doing, let’s do something else”. I can’t see that comment of Inzil's as too fishy. It feels like something all of us must've done at some point, giving a relatively useless message at the beginning of the first day.

After that he discovers Boro. After Greenie posted her vote and her suspicions, Legate gets to that as well. After I say that I agree, he’s surprised by my sharpness and says that he agrees with me, even though it was basically me agreeing with him in my post. It feels like he wants to keep the impression there’s more people noticing the same thing than there actually is. He keeps commenting on Boro until the end of the day, on this same niceness-reason. He says he would like to get him lynched. But then, when Nogrod mentions G55, he decides that she’s worth his attention as well, and keeps bringing her up as one of his major suspects. And then he follows Shasta on voting for Bom, even though he says he would like to vote for his suspects since for once he has such. He was the second person (not counting Bom himself) to go to the bandwagon, after Shasta. Boro was not far behind. Was it really so much easier to go with such an – as Pitch comments – invisible vote? Was it worth it? Or was it just that it didn’t matter which ordo you ended up killing?

That being said, I don’t say I’d trust Boro or G55 either. But Legate is way more suspicious, Boro seems just not like himself, and I haven't yet given much thought to G55 yet.

x/ed with Nog's second.

[Pomegranate]

Nog, it's not a secret, but somehow Shasta managed to get all the "glory" of the lynch even though you were the one who started more or less seriously thinking about the choice. So it was worth mentioning, when going through the people who were driving Bom's lynch. You planted the idea, then let someone else grab it and drive it forward while you were hiding more in the background.

[Boromir88]

For some unknown reason I was simply out of it all Day 1. Exhausted and wound up knocking out cold. I wasn't feeling ill, and nothing was the matter, just felt mentally not present, unable to comprehend/take in anything I was read, and why Pom and others likely noticed it wasn't my usual self. And all I could do was say "nope, you're right"...which seemed to just add on to the problem?

But good news I'm feeling refreshed and actually with-a-brain today. Not happy on what the heck is going on with the Eruhen/Acolyte stuff here, but refreshed and thus can promise to do better today.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if someone felt Rikae was a threath enough to kill her it might have been Zil, Boro, or looking at how G55 reacts to things, then her (although she should have packmates to talk sense to her not to react like that). Or then someone just wished it to look that way.

It for certain wasn't a trailless kill. Rikae was in the thick of most of the action and pretty blunt with her opinions on people. Did the wolves think they were going after the seer then? Or perhaps a possible danger, simply because she was heavily involved and killing her to frame one of her suspects?

If they had the seer in mind when killing Rikae, I understand how it would point to Inzil, G55, and Eonwe...but no idea how Nog, you're lumping me in there? The wabbit/coyote stuff? In hindsight, it's an obvious clue, one that I noticed yesterday, but didn't say anything because I assumed Rikae would know I would pick up on it. Wile E. Coyote = my avvie, because I was a huge Looney Tunes fan as a kid and Wile E was my fav. Elmer Fudd, another Looney Tunes was always hunting Bugs Bunny, but pronounced his r's as w's, "wascally wabbit" being a famous Fudd saying. So, the coyote/wabbit was an obvious hint, one which Rikae would certainly know I would notice, "I'm leaving a Fudd clue = I'm the hunter."

If it was to set up a lynch today, that would suggest there was a wolf under some considerable pressure/threat yesterday and the wolves are hoping to redirect focus onto others. As far as the votes shook out, this would point to Lommy and possibly Eonwe...but there was such a bandwagon for Bom it's hard to make out anything about the others who've received votes. People dropping Day 1 suspicion is a fairly natural occurance because there is no evidence. So, I can't see why Eonwe or Lommy would feel like threatened wolves simply because of some votes.

Wolves still need to manufacture and manipulate the situation to create completely false suspicions. And the best way to do that is their kill. So, it certainly doesn't have to be an "either/or" here. Wolves saw Rikae as a threat/gifted and as a means to manipulate the suspicions/lynch today.

I quite like G55 so far today, a lot more than yesterday...Yesterday I thought her rant was mainly as a means to say "I'm angry! And since I'm angry/ranty I have to be an innocent." But today she's right into the action, and not playing the dramatic "I know 4 wolves who will want to use this to get me lynched" pity-me card. I'll look strongly at Nogrod today, because my notes from yesterday are quite scant on him. "Nog's all over the place and seems to not want to be a decision-maker."

Nog being scatter-brained, and piling on way too much work that he feels he has to do is quite normal, but he seemed yesterday far too willing to delegate responsibility/decisions to other people. Not that Nog doesn't consider a sort of community-input, when it come to voting at the DL, but he's usually more in-front/leading with his options, and then does the democratic approach.

Pitch's posting today is starting to make me wary of him (shall explain later) and from yesterday Lommy and Lottie (shall also explain once I'm back).

Edit: crossed with Inzil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

In hindsight, it's an obvious clue, one that I noticed yesterday, but didn't say anything because I assumed Rikae would know I would pick up on it. Wile E. Coyote = my avvie, because I was a huge Looney Tunes fan as a kid and Wile E was my fav. Elmer Fudd, another Looney Tunes was always hunting Bugs Bunny, but pronounced his r's as w's, "wascally wabbit" being a famous Fudd saying. So, the coyote/wabbit was an obvious hint, one which Rikae would certainly know I would notice, "I'm leaving a Fudd clue = I'm the hunter."

Ah, of course. That would make sense (they aired the Looney Tunes even here when I was small, so I know who the folks are). I also didn't get that remark at all first, though. The question is why would Rikae give the hint specifically like that because she would know Boro would likely know that (and why would she want to tell him of all people?). Unless she assumed everyone knows the show (but then again, the WWs would also know). I mean, after all, why would a Hunter give hints? Unless she had wanted to bait the WWs into targeting her while she targeted someone she thought was one of them. Then again, the Wolves would do that only under the circumstances they thought she is NOT targeting one of them, but then again, if they would know she knows they know she whatever... no, does not make any sense (try to think about it, it's messy and does not make any sense). Simply put: I don't understand why Hunter should give clues.

Originally Posted by Boro

If it was to set up a lynch today, that would suggest there was a wolf under some considerable pressure/threat yesterday and the wolves are hoping to redirect focus onto others. As far as the votes shook out, this would point to Lommy and possibly Eonwe...but there was such a bandwagon for Bom it's hard to make out anything about the others who've received votes. People dropping Day 1 suspicion is a fairly natural occurance because there is no evidence. So, I can't see why Eonwe or Lommy would feel like threatened wolves simply because of some votes.

Okay, just (if you don't have anything better to do, it's not necessary, I might try to cope on my own): could you please somehow rephrase, say it again or explain it a bit more? I didn't quite get the meaning of this paraghraph. What do you mean: who would set up whom and how, most importantly?

Otherwise, Boro DOES indeed look more his usual self toDay, more thinking, more sharp, more "normal" - maybe he was really just "out of his mind" (or how should I call it ) yesterDay, I shall watch him further, though - I would like to see as much as I can.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, just (if you don't have anything better to do, it's not necessary, I might try to cope on my own): could you please somehow rephrase, say it again or explain it a bit more? I didn't quite get the meaning of this paraghraph. What do you mean: who would set up whom and how, most importantly?

I meant if Lommy (or Eonwe, and/or someone else acquiring significant suspicion yesterday) is a wolf, then the pack could use their night kills to divert suspicion away from one of them.

For first kills, the "little to no trail kill" seems to be more popular these days. However, Rikae isn't one. She was involved in majority of the days action, and had some fairly strongly stated opinions. So, as Pom correctly rephrased it could have been a "Hey look, this person would have a reason to kill Rikae!" and thus get suspicion dropped on a wolf who was getting votes/suspicions on Day 1.

I may have gotten too wordy and confusing, but essentially I wanted to say that it doesn't have to be an either/or..."They killed her because they thought she was seer/gifted/a threat" OR "They killed her to divert suspicions away from one of their own"...it could very well be both.

I think in combination with the Bom-voting yesterday, and with the Rikae-kill, there was at least one wolf under lynch threat yesterday. It's like a 2-step plan.

1) The immediate fix to save a packmate from being lynched Day 1, by opportunistically capitilizing on Bom's self-vote.

2) The long-term solution, kill Rikae, a person who left some strong suspicions to follow and make it look like someone else had a reason to kill her. And thus what I meant by using the night-kill to "redirect focus" today. With how slight/unsure we are about Day 1 suspicions, it's rather easy to get us to drop them when getting other evidence, such as who the wolves killed.

Ok, the basics of my Pitch-uneasiness is how he came out today to scold people about the Bom-voting. There's more which I'm going to explain but this:

I'll be getting to Rikae in a moment, but first things first: that was one of the most useless D1 lynches ever.

It's not like I can't empathize to some degree with being annoyed by Bom and wanting to set an example, but what exactly was that supposed to accomplish? I mean, you said it yourselves:

It's not that what he says is wrong/inaccurate. Afterall, what would Bom's lynch accomplish? But it comes off as trying to shame us...like "How could you do this" or "How dare you."

Not sure how to describe it other than Pitch is sounding over-the-top, trying to show disgust towards a meaningless lynch. It certainly was a strangely agreed upon to vote Bom, but the shaming outrage "how could you people do this!" is out of place, and rather uncalled for. I mean nothing against Bom, but it's not like we lynched the seer.

Ok, now I didn't vote, and for whatever it's worth I would have likely voted for G55 yesterday, but I would not at all stood opposed to the Bom-lynch. And that's where I'm scratching my head about Pitch's scolding about the lynch.

What did it accomplish? Well, maybe nothing on the surface, because Bom didn't really say anything. But what did it accomplish for the wolves? Not much other than insure one of their own wasn't lynched. I mean it sucks for Bom, and eventually we have to put real spies in the real noose. Maybe I'm strange, but I happen to think, if not a wolf, than any Day 1 that doesn't lynch a gifted to help us more than the wolves. The longer gifteds stay around, use their gifts, and gather info, the more of a chance they can flip the tide against the wolves.

And besides it may be useless to glean any substance from Bom's posts, but that doesn't make the lynch, itself useless. I mean if one of the wolves was under threat of lynching yesterday, than Bom made an easy alternative target, and that's certainly not useless. And excluding Bom's vote, there were 5 who voted Bom. It's certainly plausible at least one spy is in there...so again what did the lynch accomplish for the wolves other than getting a step closer to victory?

So, yeah that first post from Pitch today...it's not sitting well with me. It looks like he's trying to shame people for how they voted, by framing the lynch as the "most useless Day 1 lynch ever." Maybe not the most meaningful, but real scolding language, especially when I'd hardly call it a horrible/crippling lynch (like lynching the seer D1)

Edit: crossed with Legate, Greenie and Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Greenie

A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?

One of the basic hunter-strategies I would think, two versions of it would be applicable here.

a) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf but you stay quiet about him. Instead you give hints you are a hunter and suspect Bill Gates a lot in the open. Now if Rupert is a wolf, he might think that is his chance to get rid of the hunter and *pow* he dies trying it in the Night.

b) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf and you want to keep him at bay during the Nights to be able to play more - so you make an open threat to him by hinting you're a hunter and suspecting him a lot. (The second one isn't probably the best tactics as it dangers the use of your gift, but people have used it as well)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

One of the basic hunter-strategies I would think, two versions of it would be applicable here.

a) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf but you stay quiet about him. Instead you give hints you are a hunter and suspect Bill Gates a lot in the open. Now if Rupert is a wolf, he might think that is his chance to get rid of the hunter and *pow* he dies trying it in the Night.

b) You think you know Rupert Murdoch is a wolf and you want to keep him at bay during the Nights to be able to play more - so you make an open threat to him by hinting you're a hunter and suspecting him a lot. (The second one isn't probably the best tactics as it dangers the use of your gift, but people have used it as well)

Okay, Nogrod, all very nice thoughts, but I make it obligatory for *you* to read my unfruitful brain exercise (post above this one) in its fullest and then you can tell me what you think about it... (Well, what. You often write long posts yourself. We can drink the bitter cup of reading confusing long stuff both )

[Eönwë]

Ok, finally caught up on toDay as well as the end of yesterDay, since I was very time-limited then. And now, looking back, I may have been more reluctant to vote Bom, but I'll get to that in a bit.

Firstly, Pom, your voting list has a few errors. I've fixed them here, and added in the roles of the dead:

Greenie -> Boro
Lottie -> Lommy
Bom -> Bom {ordo}
G55 -> Lommy (2)
Inzil -> Eonwe
Rikae {hunter} ->Inzil
Sally -> Eonwe (2)
Eru {ordo} -> Lommy (3)
Shasta -> Bom {ordo} (2)
Legate-> Bom {ordo} (3)
Nogrod-> Bom {ordo} (4)
Eonwe-> Bom {ordo} (5)
Lommy-> Bom {ordo} (6)
Pitch->Eonwe (3)
Pom->Legate


And I'm glad you also spotted Nog's sneaky post as the origin of the Bom bandwaggon, which is what I'm going to focus on now.

Here, we have two main parts to his 'half-serious' attack:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If anyone is willing to help Bom with his suicide I'd be happy to lend a hand there.

So, we ranted too little about these no-trace votes (or we should have made the rant wider). I mean a self vote is as bad as a declared random vote in that they result in the same: there's no way of saying whom the person really wished to vote for (or whom he didn't want to vote) - or whom he faked wishing to vote for or not to vote for. Declared intentions concerning one's votes + the votes themselves are the bread and butter of this game, voting randomly or self-voting is effectively denying others the info. And thus something the wolves would love to hide in if it was looked on as having no consequences. Therefore I'm actually half-serious in proposing we lynch Bom toDay.

Firstly, here he claims that there is merit in voting Bom because of his self-vote.


Then, not content with this, he adds this:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The other thing that makes me half-serious with it, is what Bom has actually posted.

There are four posts by him.

In first (#22) he agrees with G55 (and all others) about the Acolyte discussion.

In the second one (#56) he says Rikae and G55 look innocentish, with no explanation whatsoever (well, he adds as a kind of softening that he finds G55 always innocent and wonders why is that). Then he does what I'd describe as piling onto the Leg/Zil -controversy saying that's the thing he finds interesting, though he will not himself have time to look at it.

In his third post (#64) he dislikes Greenie's vote but backtracks immediately saying he will not vote for Greenie as she will not be around to explain anymore.

Then he votes himself (#94) because "I don't seem to be in danger of being lynched".

It's as if he decided that the first reason wasn't enough, and instead of taking the angered route of lynching the self-voters, he also feels compelled to find reasons for him being suspicious. Of course, either of these two parts would be fine separately, but what is the point in bringing them together? There is no connecting theme except for "Reasons to lynch Bom", which does not seem like the sort of thing an innocent would do at all.


There's also his ending part:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The only problem I have with all this (and why I'm only half-serious) is that I'm afraid an innocent Bom could play just like this as well. And there are some I think we have some reasons to believe are not having our best in mind anyway. Heh, and I'm not so sure anymorfe why I used such a long time into this rant which begins with let's lynch Bom and then ends up with, well, maybe let's not...

Here he tried to stick it all together, and fails miserably. The two points are not the same at all. In addition, it's only here that he goes for the "but maybe an innocent Bom could do this too" angle. Throughout the rest of the post, there's no indication of anything else, no doubt or deviation from his topic- it's just a list of reasons to kill Bom.

Not only this, but he tries to soften the attack by using the words "half-serious" three times in his post. Three times. Because he knows that it is just a relentless "lynch Bom" campaign. And he doesn't want to seem like he's just coming up with this out of nowhere. He's waiting for others to pick up on his campaign and vote Bom for him, so he can just turn up later looking blameless.


The more important question is why he would do it. And what seems most likely to me is that either one of his fellows was getting attacked, or those being suspected were playing suspiciously enough for him to want to 'save them for later' when it would be harder to get an easy lynch. So I'm not sure how suspicious this makes Lommy. Yesterday, I started off thinking her suspicious, then innocent, but now, with this, I'm leaning suspicious again.

edit: x-ed with the 'Helsinki update'. Going to eat, but I will be back soon.

[Galadriel55]

More thoughts about Rikae: although she might have given hints and hunted someone she suspected, it is also possible that she did not want anyone to know her true intentions. If the wolves killed her thinking more about the way discussion would be steered after her death than possible giftedness, this is a possibility. While a Hunter can pose as a Seer, s/he can also hide xyr true thoughts and make the hunt more of a surprise, which would baffle the wolves.


And now I've made it through 10 more posts... yes, my reading will be that broken... only snatches... (and if anyone replied to my previous post I have no idea, since I'm reading in order, so please be patient with me. I'll get to this before I go to bed.)

Pom at #180 - I like your line of reasoning. Solid. Backable.

[QUOTE=A Little Green;667570]A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?[QUOTE]

A logical Hunter could. That way, if no one is killed with them, we know an innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now it is also quite possible - and maybe even probable - that being the crafty player she was, she was not hunting any of those she suspected aloud.

I think it's quite possible - see above (and I wrote that before I read your post).

Originally Posted by Nog

And we'll probably never know whom she picked.

*AArrggh*

Sadly, yes. There's too many possibilities.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For first kills, the "little to no trail kill" seems to be more popular these days. However, Rikae isn't one. She was involved in majority of the days action, and had some fairly strongly stated opinions.

She's not a no-trail kill, she's a too-many-to-follow-trail kill, in my opinion. It works just as well as the no-trace, maybe even better for the wolves because people argue about which trail should be followed.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

First off - Lommy confuses me a lot at the moment.
This looked fishy to me, the need to emphasize her own innocence in a context where it wasn't called for. Some players do that all the time, but I don't think Lommy is one of those so it struck me as odd.

Didn't that mean the interpretation was wrongful? But I'd like to hear about that from Lommy too...

Originally Posted by LG

Err- what? Not entirely sure I get this point, or rather, I get the point all right but didn't get the framework. Anyhow, yes, if someone started it, I'd say it was Shasta, regardless of that Nogrod suggested it first. I know Shasta is brilliant as a wolf and I wouldn't put something like this past him, but nothing really points that way in my opinion. Unless he and Lommy are in cahoots, but I've not seen anything that would really support that, either. I'm more curious about Eonwe.

The general line of thinking was along the lines of "if WWs used the option to lynch Bom to save somebody, as the person I was replying to suggested, they had not intended that originally, since they merely jumped on Shasta's proposal - before that, nobody of the people seemed wanting to lynch Bom, so it would be just Wolves jumping on innocent Shasta's proposal - unless he is one of them; if he is, now THAT was a bold move..."

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Thinking about it again has led me to this kind of thoughts:
- Rikae was a logical hunter.
- As can be read from the tally, Eruhen was an ordo and thus not hunted down by Rikae.
- So no hunter-kill taking place means she was not hunting any of the four wolves.

Btw, good to say this aloud and clearly. I had the same in my mind, but somehow I think I didn't formulate it clearly enough: she was not hunting any of the four Wolves. I know it's trivial, but sometimes seeing it stated plainly like that helps a lot. This should also be remembered in future Days when chasing Wolves, we should compare the candidates for lynching with this in mind.

Originally Posted by LG

A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?

Indeed. That's what I have said as well.

WARNING: In the end rather unsuccessful attempt to analyze the situation of Rikae's intention and death following.

Originally Posted by Nog

So... if she hunted Inzil or Boro (two that would have seen most likely by what happened yesterDay), then she failed aka. the one she hunted is not a wolf.

Now it is also quite possible - and maybe even probable - that being the crafty player she was, she was not hunting any of those she suspected aloud.

Whatever the case in regards to the former, it looks fairly certain she tried to make herself look like a hunter (if she thought enough many would have gotten that Looney Tunes hint). So she was luring the wolves to try her (in case the wolves were not in her suspicions so that they dared to try it).

But that would then also mean she was comfortable with her hunting-pick, or just plain taking risks. And we'll probably never know whom she picked.

*AArrggh*

This is basically the same point as to which I have arrived above with this "if she knew they knew she knew they knew..." It is really messy. Okay, let's try to rephrase it - or "re-act" the scene once again. Since we know Rikae did not die, she must NOT have hunted a Wolf. Also, the Wolves obviously DID kill her. So what has happened here must have been one of the following. I will be using Boro as the example, although of course it is by no means the only option - the Wolves might not have gotten the hint, they might have interpreted it differently, they might have thought she was hunting Zil or whoever else was the possibility, but if I consider the hint, then at least I'd say Boro was what Rikae probably MEANT it to be; otherwise I have no idea):

A - Boro is not a Wolf
Rikae: Listen, people, I want you to think I am hunting Boro. (she indeed does so)
Wolves: Hahaha, stupid hunter, Boro is not one of us. *safely got rid of one Gifted*

B - Boro is a Wolf
Rikae: Listen, people, I want you to think I am hunting Boro. (she bluffs and actually hunts somebody else)
Wolves: We should not attack her. She is hunting one of us.
Clever Wolf: She is obviously bluffing. Let's kill her anyway.
OR
Stupid Wolf: Who cares. Let's gamble.

Now the more messy part would be analysing what Rikae actually had in mind when she did that. Because:

1. Rikae thinks Boro is a Wolf
Rikae: I am going to give Boro the hint that I am the hunter. He won't try to kill me and I will survive one more Night. (does not make any sense, in my opinion! Hunter is not here to survive, but to be killed!)
OR
Rikae: I am going to give Boro the hint that I am the hunter. He is a stupid Wolf, so he will say "yay, let's go kill Hunter!" and I will kill him. (makes even less sense, Boro would have to be completely crazy to do that)
OR
Rikae: I am going to... (you know the stuff)... He is a clever Wolf, so he will think I am bluffing and in fact not hunting him, he will try to kill me and I will kill him. (somewhat over-the-top, I'd say, though still better than the previous possibilities)

2. Rikae thinks Boro is not a Wolf
Rikae: I am going to give the hint... Wolves will see it and think I am hunting Boro. They will try to kill me in order to frame him and I hope I pick for my Night kill one of them. (would make a bit more sense than all the previous, but still it is rather mad)

So with all this, my conclusion would be that most likely it was something completely different, like Rikae pretending to be Seer or I have no idea what the Angband is that about.

Brain exercise. Thank you for your attention. If you did not make any sense of it, don't worry, not sure if it's very important in the end. I just tried to clarify the matter for myself, not very successfuly.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I meant if Lommy (or Eonwe, and/or someone else acquiring significant suspicion yesterday) is a wolf, then the pack could use their night kills to divert suspicion away from one of them.

For first kills, the "little to no trail kill" seems to be more popular these days. However, Rikae isn't one. She was involved in majority of the days action, and had some fairly strongly stated opinions. So, as Pom correctly rephrased it could have been a "Hey look, this person would have a reason to kill Rikae!" and thus get suspicion dropped on a wolf who was getting votes/suspicions on Day 1.

I may have gotten too wordy and confusing, but essentially I wanted to say that it doesn't have to be an either/or..."They killed her because they thought she was seer/gifted/a threat" OR "They killed her to divert suspicions away from one of their own"...it could very well be both.

Ok, yes, I think I got it, thanks...

Originally Posted by Boro

What did it accomplish? Well, maybe nothing on the surface, because Bom didn't really say anything. But what did it accomplish for the wolves? Not much other than insure one of their own wasn't lynched. I mean it sucks for Bom, and eventually we have to put real spies in the real noose. Maybe I'm strange, but I happen to think, if not a wolf, than any Day 1 that doesn't lynch a gifted to help us more than the wolves. The longer gifteds stay around, use their gifts, and gather info, the more of a chance they can flip the tide against the wolves.

Note: this makes Boro sound better. It sounds genuine and does not sound like something a Wolf would say.

Ugh. I have been again writing this over a long and often interrupted period of time (and that includes this terrible and unfruitful brain exercise in the middle)... will take a break for a while and do something useful elsewhere...

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie, Nog, and Eönwë

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

So repeating this for the last time, the issue was (narrated as I saw it back then): Zil requested from others to start "hunting wolves" yet didn't act on it himself, so I questioned that behavior, he did not react, I asked him again, he replied with the same line as in start which did not explain anything (at least to me back then), and so on, back and forth something like four times. I kept asking him only because he had not answered my question. Now he has clarified it to me by the end of yesterDay, so we're somewhere else now.

Legate's defense has me feeling slightly better about him, though I still don't understand how I didn't make myself clear on the whole issue. Especially to someone as sharp as he.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That's basically it, I guess. This argument eventually prevailed in my mind as in the others', probably, over the anyway uncertain suspicions we might have had (and a large part of it was probably when it got rolling, which was probably mostly my doing, I humbly confess, the decisive moment - but really, I don't regret it, even in retrospect. Of course killing a Wolf would have been much better, but for Day 1, at that moment, it was a right choice, I would have probably done it again). The main basis of my vote was indeed this "if not toDay, then never" and "we can still lynch Boro tomorrow".

I realize I think quite differently than most, and, as I said, I know Bom has done some frustrating things, but is voting for one's self on Day 1 really something a wolf would be likely to do? I can see some legitimately feeling like there was no better option, and voting for him, but there's got to be baddies on that wagon.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But the thing is, it was basically really orchestrated by Shasta. At least from my POV, if he had not pointed it out so decisively, I wouldn't have considered voting Bom, most likely. And so basically the only logical explanation would be that Shastawolf would come up with this brilliant scheme to turn the whole village away from voting some fellow Wolf by proposing a completely new lynch. It would have been brilliant scheme, hats off to Roy Harper, but somehow I'd find it really really really bold and such things don't usually happen.

Wanting to lynch Bom under those circumstances doesn't really seem out of character for an innocent Shasta. I think it more likely if Spies were involved they'd be with the later votes.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

A Hunter hint? Why on earth would a Hunter leave hints?

I can really only see a Hunter doing that if xe was very sure xe'd spotted a wolf. On Day 1, barring any kind of Seer drama, that just seems too unlikely. So I don't know what Rikae was up to.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I may have gotten too wordy and confusing, but essentially I wanted to say that it doesn't have to be an either/or..."They killed her because they thought she was seer/gifted/a threat" OR "They killed her to divert suspicions away from one of their own"...it could very well be both.

Sure, both could be possible. And if they merely took her Hunter-hints (if that's what they were) at face value, they might have gambled that it was too early in the game for her to have any concrete suspicions and decided to get her out of the way, especially of she hadn't been open about suspecting one of them.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think in combination with the Bom-voting yesterday, and with the Rikae-kill, there was at least one wolf under lynch threat yesterday.

When Shasta started pushing Bom as a lynch, Lommy had three votes and Eönwë had two.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Not sure how to describe it other than Pitch is sounding over-the-top, trying to show disgust towards a meaningless lynch. It certainly was a strangely agreed upon to vote Bom, but the shaming outrage "how could you people do this!" is out of place, and rather uncalled for. I mean nothing against Bom, but it's not like we lynched the seer.

I see your point, but to me Pitch has been looking fairly clean otherwise.

x/d with all since # 187

[Eönwë]

Back, and now onto a few other things.

Firstly, I'm interested by Pitch's find:

Originally Posted by Rikae

it may be more logical to leave Inzil alone for toDay precisely because he has made himself a target.

It seems pretty likely that if the wolves were looking for hints and suspected she was a hunter, this (as well as the wabbit/coyote thing) would have stood out. And it does, as Pitch says, pretty much say that she's picking Inzil. Whether or not she actually did is irrelevant, since no-one died. But if the wolves did take this as a hint, then they would definitely assume that Inzil was chosen. In which case, this whole affair makes Inzil look very good. If they got the wabbit/coyote hint and not this one, then it still makes Inzil look good, since he was her vote, and so I doubt there'd be any way he'd risk it. Same goes for if they didn't even consider her as the hunter. She voted for Inzil, so the link would be way too strong.

So, basically, what this quote from Rikae does is point to Inzil's innocence, and I suppose I may have overreacted a bit to his attack of me yesterDay, since in reread, he doesn't look all that evil. And he's explained his weird actions already, so at the moment I'm fine with him.


Next, Pitch himself.
Considering that early yesterDay he seemed simply careful about not getting too deeply involved anywhere, and that he started seeming more and more evil as the Day progressed, I'm starting to suspect that the particular he made on Rikae's possible hint post is simply a summary of a discussion he may have had last Night.

I mean, he's started garnering suspicion, and what better way to clear his name than to give us some much sought-after information regarding Rikae's killing? So he can use his extra knowledge to gain favour with the village. And then maybe the whole wabbit/coyote thing is just to throw us off the feeling that he knows too much, since it's a very related topic, and him knowing both would suggest that he was particularly looking out for hints, which doesn't look good.


Also, I may just be being cynical, but since I suspect Nog of being a wolf, this seems like an attempt to allay our thoughts on Zil (or Boro, who has also been suggested as a possible pick for her) being innocent:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now it is also quite possible - and maybe even probable - that being the crafty player she was, she was not hunting any of those she suspected aloud.

And then, there's the interplay between Nog and Pitch. I'm not going to go through it all now (still need catch up since Nog's 'Helsinki update'), but I remember noting Pitch trying to keep his distance from Nog by arguing against his points and making mild accusations but never going truly after him.



My other thought on people today is that Pom looks sharp and innocent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Eönwë suddenly jumped to my suspicion list with his last post. If anything, *that* sounds like an attempt to frame up a person. I can fairly understand what Nog had said and what Eönwë criticises as innocent, but Eönwë seems to be overzealously painting it completely black. And it really seems to me like an attempt to cast suspicion on somebody.

Starting from the use of adjectives like "sneaky" in the very beginning (with a post that is perfectly normal, in my opinion)...

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And I'm glad you also spotted Nog's sneaky post as the origin of the Bom bandwaggon, which is what I'm going to focus on now.

...using then those very decisive terms "not content with this, he adds..."

Then, not content with this, he adds this:

It's as if he decided that the first reason wasn't enough, and instead of taking the angered route of lynching the self-voters, he also feels compelled to find reasons for him being suspicious. Of course, either of these two parts would be fine separately, but what is the point in bringing them together? There is no connecting theme except for "Reasons to lynch Bom", which does not seem like the sort of thing an innocent would do at all.

...and making a camel out of a midget (Czech proverb - I think in English it's mountain out of a molehill) with this analysis and finishing with saying an innocent wouldn't do that at all.

And the final evaluation is what feels the worst:

Here he tried to stick it all together, and fails miserably.
(...)
Not only this, but he tries to soften the attack by using the words "half-serious" three times in his post. Three times. Because he knows that it is just a relentless "lynch Bom" campaign. And he doesn't want to seem like he's just coming up with this out of nowhere. He's waiting for others to pick up on his campaign and vote Bom for him, so he can just turn up later looking blameless.

Sort of a very, very, very, very determined and very, very, very violent attack, I would say. So I really don't like that.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Wanting to lynch Bom under those circumstances doesn't really seem out of character for an innocent Shasta. I think it more likely if Spies were involved they'd be with the later votes.

I'm not saying it's impossible, the question would be who. But I also think that, given the numbers, it is not very helpful to assume there would be some WWs among them, since we don't know which ones.

EDIT: x-ed with Eönwë

[Galadriel55]

I'm back but I can only read in parts... so far I'm up to #180, and commenting as I go... I'll be ack with more...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sure, but I sill don't like the fact you were so sure about your survival that you wrote that overNight.

I knew I wouldn't have time toDay - either take the risk or keep silent.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I think maybe we can leave this be for now and see what happens the next Night.

Good idea.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Is it a totally alien concept to you G55 that people can change their minds, especially if they are given reasons for it? (I know there are people who stick to their beliefs whatever the case, or even if reality proves them wrong time after time, but that is a discussion on politics and religion I'm not willing to engage here.)

No, Nog, but I think you would also jump on it if a person who repeatedly defended a point started attacking it after some support from others.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So if someone felt Rikae was a threath enough to kill her it might have been Zil, Boro, or looking at how G55 reacts to things, then her (although she should have packmates to talk sense to her not to react like that).

I'm shocked at how sure you sound with that "should". Don't be so confident, cause I don't.

Personally, I think Rikae was killed because she left a very confusing trace. And she wasn't likely to be lynched.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Now, Rikae.

An interesting detail is where she says

(underlining mine). Did someone read that as a hunter hint?

Now that's sharp!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

No, Nog, but I think you would also jump on it if a person who repeatedly defended a point started attacking it after some support from others.

If I were a wolf, I would be very much annoyed (you know this forum censures stronger expressions) if someone who backed me turned around to suspect me. Sure. As innocent I'd be annoyed as well, but that wouldn't make me concentrating my energy during the Night into a post trying to paint that person black just because he came to other thoughts... rather I'd ask her/him why that happened and tried to explain then the things the other person says made her/him suspect me.

And well, you only have my word for it, but I didn't change my mind on you because that idea got support. But think of this: if my modus operandi (my working rule) would have been trying to get you lynched in principle, or going with the flow and suspecting only those who others suspect, surely I wouldn't have defended you in the first place?

I did change my mind because of the way you suddenly jumped on Lommy (there was a train emerging there) - and especially the way you did it (you underlined it was the substance of her posts but never said anything about it yourself).

Originally Posted by G55

I'm shocked at how sure you sound with that "should". Don't be so confident, cause I don't.

So you confess?

Okay. A bad joke, and it's probably a misunderstanding there. I tried to say that if you were a wolf, your packmates would have told you not to do something as over the board as your rant you posted early into the Day, because it would only make you look more suspicious. But as you did post it... well maybe you don't have packmates to guide you?

Jesus it's late again. I'm into a list of sorts... (darn vacations... )

[Pomegranate]

I'm back again, and will have to vote soon. Eonwe's jump on my suspicion of Nog definitely did raise eyebrows. I feel like there's too many people too much into lynching him, though - Greenie obviously, but Lottie, Legate, Pitch and somewhat Lommy as well. Lottie's last post feels very bad for me for some reason.

I think Nogrod and Legate answered to my suspicions fairly well.

I agree that G55's Nog-hate was a bit weird, but I have myself written posts during the night, if I have known that I don't have time during the day. Especially if I feel I haven't done anything too big to make the wolves interested in myself. And given - again - that it's G55 we're talking about, strong wordings don't alarm me that much.

I shall do a bit of reading on Lottie and Legate before I vote, most probably for either of them. I don't think there's quite enough reason to vote for Nog and I also think Eonwe, while being somewhat fishy, is fishy enough for two votes this early in the game. Broadening the view a bit.

And since I've almost gone through everyone, a bit more about the rest. Boro has a vague feeling of goodness in him today, I think it was there also yesterday, it was just not normal behaviour of his. Same goes with Inzil - people that I can't make myself to suspect without way too much time in my hands and energy to go through their posts over and over again. Greenie I just can't read at all, same goes with Shasta so far.

x/ed with Eonwe's both

[Nogrod]

13 people of which 4 are wolves, 1 seer, 1 ranger, 1 Acolyte (whatever it means, but seems to kill at Nights) and 6 ordinary innocents.

If we get it wrong toDay, and the wolves kill one innocent - and the Acolyte yet another one, the worst case scenario for toMorrow would be: 10 people, of which 4 wolves, 5 innocents and the Acolyte. So at best 6-4 to us, at worst 5-5.

So let's make it good toDay.


In the order of appearance in the Mod-list

Boromir88: I'm suspecting him still even if he has been acting more Boroesque toDay. All this Rikae-stuff makes me doubt though. My reason says Rikae did not hunt him (why would she, after that open hinting?), but did Borowolf count on it being bluff (or was he afraid she was the seer?) or was it some others who tried to capitalise on the interpretation that we would then suspect Boro on her death (quite schemy and daring wolves then)? The way he revealed his wolfPOV, or hindsight POV, with Eönwë's suspicions on me he was only too happy to continue makes me wonder as well. If innocent he should have realised there was no way of knowing whether Bom was a wolf or an innocent beforehand on D1.

Sally: A few limericks (thanks Sally, they make me leer) and obviously a lot of RL constraints. But still I'd like to hear more from her. Hard to say anything, and if this continues, I'm starting to get worried about her.

Galadriel55: I think I have talked enough of her. YesterDay's sudden Lommy-vote was bad and her start of the Day attack on me was at least as bad. I do suspect her.

Shasta: Where are you? I liked his contributions yesterDay and well, there has been nothing toDay thus far, so looking forwards to hear more from him.

Steve: I don't know what to say. He clearly had determination there (and yes, jumping on the points Pomegranate had already made). Unless he answers to my question to him (and Boro), I'll think him very much a suspect.

Pomegranate: I'm more or less agreeing with the majority that she looks both sharp and well, although I suspected her strong language in her first posts on my Bom-lynch -issue (or how she handled Legate: I think I've never seen Legate as explanational than there ). Seeing that she voted Legate (whom I tend to trust somewhat) sure makes me wonder what did it mean when she said he answered her questions "fairly well" - and yet merited a vote. Also she talks of two votes for Eönwë which is either incorrect or then I have missed something; or that we should look at Legate, Eönwë (sic!) and Lommy while the person voting Eönwë is Greenie! (I'm really thinking I'm missing something here)

A Little Green: I'm somewhat astonished I'm not suspecting her yet, but she looks pretty reasonable - and I do agree with her on many points this time around. So no flags, as yet.

Pitchwife: I don't like a lot of the things he does and If I have time, I'm going to look at him more closely tomorrow after I wake up. There's an edge, and kind of vileness to his posting I do not recognize.

Lottie: Her absence has clearly washed away any thoughts I might have had of her off from my brain toDay. The last one looks decent though, but it might be because she suspects Steve heavily there and I do share the feeling. She's also someone I should take a closer look.

Inziladun: Well the enigma then. And here's why. There has been a lot of talk that he was weird yesterDay, and many explanations, and further questions, and the very same explanations going around and around with him. But they are beside the point. The point is, what Rikae asked from him when I was shy to do it that bluntly (even if I tried to ask him about it), namely: "Now Inzil, come out and claim what you're trying to claim so we can all see how implausible it really is!" A wolf backing into "I'm a bit cryptic, yeah, but things are going on now, don't ask me" (paraphrased, of course), or the Acolyte? If the Acolyte kills people I think we have the right to ask him about it... (that he kills people, we didn't know yesterDay, and that was one of the main reasons I didn't ask him straight - or bring that idea forth in the first place)

Lommy!: I think she acts like her normal self - which is to say quite little. She talks sense and I have nothing against her thus far - nor any reasons to trust her over the careful reasonableness -point.

Legate of Amon Lanc: We seem to agree on many things and that makes me feel good with him, but I'm also quite aware that a cunning wolf he could be would possibly try the same. But still, I have no reasons to suspect him and as long as we seem to be on the same side on certain issues, which are the only things I can rely at this point of the game, I'm actually pretty happy with it.


EDIT: X'd with Eönwë... WHAT? (and I thought I had earned some sleep...)

[Galadriel55]

OK, my next bit of posts...

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I realize I think quite differently than most, and, as I said, I know Bom has done some frustrating things, but is voting for one's self on Day 1 really something a wolf would be likely to do? I can see some legitimately feeling like there was no better option, and voting for him, but there's got to be baddies on that wagon.

Most certainly there's at least one there - probably more.


Legate @ 194: I think you're critisizing Eonwe too harshly. I really don't see why you think his Nogalysis looks so bad. I didn't find it particularly evil-looking or suspicious. It was alright.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Galadriel55 - my top suspect at the moment. It's not only her weird jump on me yesterDay or on Nog toDay, but mostly two details which scream wolf (which you all should know if you've read my posts but let me repeat). 1. When she looks back, she refers to whether she said she suspected someone, not whether she suspected them in her head. I can see no reason an innocent would play with this mindset. 2. She was confident enough that she'd be alive toDay that she spent a considerable amount of time last Night writing a post. A rhetorical question: who again are they who generally don't die during the Night?

1. In a game of WW, thoughts that are left unspoken are of very little value. You can't prove thoughts. You can only prove words. Thinking about something can get you to something, but not the game as a whole. Speaking aloud does.

2. As I said before (though still after this post) - I do not have time today to look for so many quotes, so it was a risk it or hold your peace situation, and I'm not gonna hold my peace if I think something looks suspicious. Moreover, with all the suspicion comming my way yesterDay after I went to bed, it would be a waste of scapegoat/wagon/whateveryouwannacallit for the wolves to kill me at Night. They usually go for those who are generally considered innocent and would not be lynched, unless they are aiming at a person for a reason greater than to make a kill that won't endanger them (eg: suspected of Seering).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No. I was not proposing to lynch Bom because he is Bom. That would be stupid. I was suggesting it because of how he played, especially the self-vote.

Errr... that is lynching Bom because he's Bom - you can put all the words that describe him - crazy, random, etc - into one: Bom. That's just him. If you're lynching him for his playing style, you're lynching him for being him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But then you Boro seem to fall into the fallacy of hindsight or that of wolvery (both meaning "knowing things"). You can choose which one...

You lost me somewhere here.... how so?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And well, you only have my word for it, but I didn't change my mind on you because that idea got support. But think of this: if my modus operandi (my working rule) would have been trying to get you lynched in principle, or going with the flow and suspecting only those who others suspect, surely I wouldn't have defended you in the first place?

When you defended me it was Boro against the general mood that was "she's probably innocent" - one against a few.

But... I'll take your word for now, and "moving" you from red to orange categories.

Originally Posted by Nog

So you confess?

Yes, I confess of my innocence.

Originally Posted by Nog

Okay. A bad joke, and it's probably a misunderstanding there. I tried to say that if you were a wolf, your packmates would have told you not to do something as over the board as your rant you posted early into the Day, because it would only make you look more suspicious. But as you did post it... well maybe you don't have packmates to guide you?

OK, because to me it sounded more like an overconfident statement saying that I do have mates who for some reason didn't instruct me properly. It's clear now.