TIG XCIV– WHere the Stars Are Strange (Game thread)

[Thinlómien]

Gah, this game is crazy. I can very much realte with the sentiment that it'd be nice to double-lynch Shasta and Legate, but I also have sort of last-minute doubts. They are both acting so crazy that what if they're both innocent and the remaining wolves are, say, Pom, Pitch and Sally? Ugh. I'm thinking of going through what everybody said Nog, as a sort of pair for Legate's analysis, and hoping it would give us some hints.

edit: xed with Pitch

[A Little Green]

Lommy pretty much read my mind. I was thinking of reading at least Pitch - I don't know why everyone keeps calling him a submarine when he's been reasonably active all game - certainly more active than some others, including myself.

As for the topic of the Day - I think Shasta looks more innocent than wolf, actually. I know a Shastawolf can get pretty bold, but this game he'd be insane. (Whoops. Excessive use of italics. Lommy will have my head for this! ) Legate started reminding me of Nog, actually, in the martyr-ish post where he pretty much says everyone suspecting him is either a wolf or blind. And that he even considers Boro's half-hearted double-lynch idea is just - odd.


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inzil

This apparent frustration looks genuine on the surface, but it really doesn't look like something that should have merited such a reaction.

A quick note before I forget; Zil, I think we're on dangerous waters if we try to assess whether some (emotional) reaction is proportionate or not. People react in such different ways, and what's more, emotional reactions don't follow a logic so evaluating them logically is just not very valid.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Bolding mine, as is the victory. "Most of the game" and "all along" are two vastly different things, pet.

Since when is this "most of the game", anyway? "Most" means "more than the rest", obviously, so definitely more than 50% of the time, if you want to put it like that. You did not bother to answer "since when" it was, then, if not "all" the time; it wouldn't have harmed you (if it is true). I wonder if I should start doubting you as well.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Gah, this game is crazy. I can very much realte with the sentiment that it'd be nice to double-lynch Shasta and Legate, but I also have sort of last-minute doubts. They are both acting so crazy that what if they're both innocent and the remaining wolves are, say, Pom, Pitch and Sally? Ugh. I'm thinking of going through what everybody said Nog, as a sort of pair for Legate's analysis, and hoping it would give us some hints.

Just a remark too - not sure if this is innocent Lommy (because it sounds completely like her) or evil Lommy trying to sound like innocent Lommy.

Zil's analysis of Shasta is very good, I suggest you people consider it (also in case I am no longer here toMorrow and he is).

Also, I believe the Acolyte is innocent in this game: the most plausible theory this far is that the Acolyte had to push somebody from the window at some point (maybe on Night 2, maybe on whenever they chose), and took that person's role. Eruhen was the ordo, so now the Acolyte would be just one of us. I think it makes perfect sense.

If it is last words, then:

Shasta looks bad, Boro also somewhat. If I am lynched, suggest keeping eye on them still.

Also definitely worth checking: Greenie, who is somehow sneakily drifting on the bottom, while casting the "right" (read: Steve before he proclaimed himself to be the Seer, yet if she was a Wolf, she could know he was innocent and could have recognized his really strong Nog-crusade as a Seer heading for a known Wolf; or now joining the bandwagon against me with the very slow steady slight steps by calling Shasta "too insane to be a Wolf", which hurts my feelings, since I believe if anyone did anything insane here, it was me).

Not sure about Lommy, slightly less sure about Sally than before. Others either go grey or innocent (our "knowns").

EDIT: x-ed with one Greenie

[Pomegranate]

Greenie: What happened to your vote-analysis?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I think it is clear whom I shall vote toDay in any case,

++Shasta

The tally this far, for the easy record:

Lottie => Legate
Inzil => Shasta
Sally => Legate (2)
Shasta => Legate (3)
Legate => Shasta (2)

Will be leaving the computer soon, but village, good luck to you still; and hope that in case you lynch me (although I would prefer not), you'd at least focus on the other targets with clearer mind. As we say in Khand, if only death can pay for life...

EDIT: x-ed with Nate

[Nerwen]

One hour to go. Chose well, my loyal subjects.

~The Empress's ghost.

[Pomegranate]

And Pitch: Looking back, you said YesterDay that you thought Legate's reaction on Steve's reveal made him in your eyes more trustworthy than not. Why did you not bring that up anymore today, when people started seriously doubting Legate?

x/ed with Lommy

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

And Pitch: Looking back, you said YesterDay that you thought Legate's reaction on Steve's reveal made him in your eyes more trustworthy than not. Why did you not bring that up anymore today, when people started seriously doubting Legate?

I was getting to that.

I thought yesterDay that Legate could have had a good reason for his reaction to Eönwë's reveal (i.e. that Eönwë could conceivably be an Acolyte who gets a kill one Night, a dream the next etc.), but by his own words that hadn't occurred to him until I suggested it. Going back and rereading his posts, I also notice that his wording was too strong to express mere reasonable doubt:

Originally Posted by Legate #236

I am rather convinced, now thinking about it more and more, that Eönwë is just fake. A rather not very well done Wolfy Seer-revelation-attempt

OK, elsewhere in the same post he says "It is of course still possible he is not lying", but this sounds like an attempt to discredit Eönwë at any cost. There's also his insistence that Eönwë should reveal his dreamed ordo, which would only have given the wolves a second best choice of kill in lieu of the (most likely protected) seer. All this does not look good.

What could speak for him is that he began to revise his position in #248 before other people began to suspect him (up to this it had been between him, Nog and Zil). But maybe he just realized that going all out against a revealed seer would get him into trouble.

I'm genuinely puzzled by him, because honestly, the way he's played doesn't make much sense either for an innocent Legate or for a wolf-Legate, but all in all, he does look more bad than good.

[Thinlómien]

Lottie doesn’t approve of Nog’s unoriginal random vote rant (#34). Later, she argues about random- vote rants with him (#83). Later, she makes a clarification about this to G55 (#95).

Pitch discusses the acolyte with Nog (#38). Later, he defends himself rather sharply against his accusations (#75). Defends/clarifies Lottie to him in (#77).

Legate makes a list and is not worried about Nog who looks like his “classic self” (#44). He also defends his and Nog’s random vote rants in relation to Bom’s vote (#117). He “thanks” Nog for bringing up G55’s name in the lynch discussion (#125).

Lommy wonders about Legate and Nog echoing her random vote rant (#51). In a list, she says he looks like “typical innocent Nogrod, almost too much so” (#57). Agrees and disagrees with his attack on G55 (#126).

Boro defends himself against Nog (#76).

Pom loves Nog’s phrasing and thinks he looks genuine despite a style she’s not familiar with (#80). Clarifies this later upon request (#131).

Shasta calls an early post of Nog’s well-written but empty (#109). Next, he disagrees with Nog’s defense of G55’s emotinal outburst and calls Nog’s behaviour in the issue a red flag. He thinks Nog is very unlike himself and thus suspicious, and he also talks about him/ replies to him about a few other things (all of this in #110). Makes a list and has Nog leaning guilty, admittedly mostly because of his relation with G55 (#112).

No mention about Nog: Greenie and Sally.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pom

Greenie: What happened to your vote-analysis?

Err - it kind of died. Meaning, I didn't have the time for it yesterDay after all, and woke up a bit too late to do it toDay. Now halfway through a Pitchalysis, hope to finish at least that before DL!

[Thinlómien]

Oops, thanks to Greenie next to me on the sofa, I just realised there's just one more hour until the DL. I'll try to finish my analysis but also keep an eye on the current situation. Seems pretty sure either Legate or Shasta's going to die toDay and I'm not sure how I feel about it... maybe it will at least clarify stuff.

edit: xed with embarrassed Greenie and the Empress's ghost

[A Little Green]

PITCHWIFE

Day 1

- acolyte speculation
- more acolyte speculation; comments on the Zil-Legate-issue in some length but says both look innocent; more or less frowns at Steve for doing the exact same thing he himself does in this post:

I don't like how people regurgitate it now and pile onto an easy suspicion (people meaning Rikae and Eönwë - especially Eönwë who complains about 'people' [no names given] 'bandwaggoning on that discussion' while doing it himself).

- thinks Gal's outburst against Rikae feels genuine; further commentary on the Legate-Zil-issue
- disagrees with Nog and tries to clear up some confusion between Lottie and Lommy about some post of Zil's:

No, what Lottie is saying is that Zil's post that followed hers didn't have anything to do with her poke/attack/whateveryouwannacallit, unlike Lommy had supposed.

FWIW, I was mildly annoyed by Lottie's failure to get my sarcasm, but I didn't think of it as an "attack" until Lommy, ironically, blew it up into one.

In which way would you say has Lottie acted like a bold wolf? I fail to see where she's done anything particularly bold yet.

Quite a lot of concentration on Lottie in this one.

- Disagrees with Eonwe about Zil-Legate-issue; defends Zil; votes Eonwe:

No, it doesn't, but poking someone again and again over a point so you can then complain that he's "reiterating his side" and starting a pointless discussion doesn't look particularly innocent either. OK, Legate did the poking and you the complaining, but you're using the controversy between them to paint Zil as suspicious by blaming the whole controversy on him, while it took two to keep it going. If you think this is misrepresenting you, so be it, but it's the best I have toDay.

++ Eönwë

In other news, I'm not happy with Bom's Nilp-vote, quite happy with Lottie's rant defending herself against Nog, a little puzzled by this sudden Lommywagon, and too pressed for time to make up my mind about the rest. Á vala Melkor!

Day 2

Three of us dead already, and the hunter among them? Blargh.

I always mistrust comments like this; just doesn't look genuine to me.

- complains about Bom-lynch and accuses Nog and Legate (and Lommy) of hypocrisy
- finds Rikae's hunter hint of ”logical” and ”made himself a target”; thinks Inzil was Rikae's likeliest pick and therefore probably innocent; confused about wabbits and coyotes
- says it matters whether the Bomwagon was initiated by Nog or Shasta
- further comments on Nog and Legate's hypocrisy re. Bom, is willing to excuse Lommy because she was under threat of lynching
- turns from Nog to Eonwe:

Eönwë's analysis of evil!Nogrod as the orchestrator of the Bomwagon would be a lot more convincing if he hadn't voted Bom himself, dropping all his prior suspicions; pointing the finger at Nog now and saying "He made me do it!" is a bit rich, isn't it? I was rather suspicious of Nog myself early in the Day, but this actually makes me doubt it.

- argues with Nog a bit:

Try to make up your mind whether I'm being "wise with hindsight", as you said earlier, or had wolvish knowledge in advance, will you? And if you think the latter, then say it instead of just throwing insinuating coughs my way.

- further disagrees with Nog about hunter hints
- reaction to Eonwe's reveal:

Oops, that changes things quite a bit. I'm trusting Eönwë's dream - in part because it explains the single-minded, aggressive way he's gone after Nog toDay, but mostly because it would be suicide for him if Nog turned out innocent, and I know he's too clever for that.

That said, I don't see Legate's initial reluctance to fall out of his chair trusting Eönwë as suspicious, but rather a point in his favour. Has everybody forgotten that for all we know, the Acolyte may get dreams as well and, whether xe works with the wolves or on their own, is by all evidence not on our side?

That's not saying Eönwë can't be our genuine seer, of course, but the possibility that he's something else should at least be considered - unless of course you know he's not the Acolyte; which makes me have worrisome thoughts about Zil's eagerness to accept his reveal.

But whatever Eönwë is, it doesn't change the fact that he'd be mad to claim a false dream. Therefore, for toDay:

++Nog

Day 3

- tries to make Inzil see that it's understandable that people see him as the acolyte; dislikes Shasta's idea of killing the suspected acolyte Zil
- disagrees with Shasta about whether Eonwe was under sufficient suspicion for his reveal to be justifiable (being of the opinion that the reveal was reasonable in that situation)
- says it looks like Legate is trying to deflect suspicion of himself onto Shasta
- says Sally is being reasonable but playing with the acolyte role
- reaction to Inzil's innocence:

Thank you, that simplifies things.

But tell me one thing: if you already dreamed Nog on Night 1 and knew from the beginning that he was a wolf, why on Earth did you join his and Shasta's "lynch Bom" initiative?

I fully understand that you didn't attack him on Day 1, but to actually vote with a known wolf against an unknown?

Conclusions?
A lot of what Pitch has been doing has been clarifying things and trying to settle conflicts. But for all that, he's been quite sharp and his reactions to the reveals (first Nog, then Inzil) look innocentish to me. What has ben called his "moral highground" re. Bom-lynch could easily be a Pitchwolf smelling easy cannon-fodder, though.
Still, my overall feeling is leaning more innocent than not.

[A Little Green]

Boro - Half the time, I'm convinced he's evil; the other half, I'm convinced he's innocent. I still seem to recall something about Nog's wolvery making him look good, but I've no idea what that was! And, sadly, no time to check.

Sally - I don't remember much of who she's suspected (except for her summary of suspecting all the gifteds and one wolf); voted Eonwe Day 1 and Nog Day 2, I don't remember her reasons for voting Eonwe and again, no time to check. I like that she's getting into more of a serious mode, but I still don't have a read on her.

Shasta - I already said this, but he'd have to be totally insane to try all he's trying as a wolf. Just - totally insane. I don't want to lynch him toDay.

Nate - I'd love to take a better look at her, actually. She's sharp and nice, but a wolf can be both of those, too. The only thing I remember clearly is her pretty consistent pursuit of Legate; a bit too consistent and serious for wolf-on-wolf, methinks, so if Legate turns out evil Nate will look better.

Pitchwife - Going through his posts made me feel pretty good about him.

Lottie - Completely under my radar, actually! Which is pretty alarming. Will definitely take a look at her toMorrow.

Lommy! - I'm feeling rather good about her, too; definitely leaning innocent.

Legate - He's just - off the wall. Really. If he isn't a wolf, I bet he's making them really happy at the moment. I think he might be our best bet toDay - he's a likely wolf candidate, and in any case if he isn't lynched toDay he's likely to be the topic of all discussion toMorrow too.

Steve and Inzil don't get on the list. Sorry, sweeties.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pom

The Captain Obvious here? If she isn’t a wolf, here is a good reason why the wolves realised to kill G55. Did she want to get Gal lynched so that they wouldn’t need to kill her at night? Or was she just so ignorant? (I could've been this ignorant, but Lommy said herself she's trying to avoid this) It's hard for me to believe that she didn't realise the option of Gal being the captain while writing the post. On the other hand, if she was a wolf, it would feel weird she decided to emphasise these two points which actually meant something else, instead of all the various other things she could've pointed out about Gal.

What do you mean? The mindset thing? That could only mean wolf or seer, and I wasn't especially concerned about her being the seer. (It's kind of ironic you raise this point against me since I almost got lynched on Day1 because of my wishy-washy suspicions - they were wishy-washy because I was afraid of suspecting the gifted. Didn't succeed very well in that though!) If you mean dying during the Night, the Ranger can count less in her own survival than anyone else, given that she cannot be protected.

Originally Posted by Pom

Lommy: I raised a point against Nog exactly once.

True. But you also pointed out stuff about him more than once, such as "Nogrod is playing differently than last time I played with him", always without concluding whether it's suspicious or not. That's what caught my eye.

Originally Posted by Pom

It is not seen here, but I kept pursuing Legate at the same time.

Yes, fair enough, but that was not what I was looking at.

Originally Posted by Boro, underlining mine to indicate what I'm replying to

I understand not wanting to focus on Shasta today, and I don't plan to, I just wanted to comment on this. Because Shasta is my top suspect, and I can't see how what happened yesterday effects what I should think about Shasta.

Also, Lommy, you're looking at Shasta through very narrow-minded glasses. You're looking at him based on interactions with Nogrod, and not at the whole picture. Shasta's actions through the entire game have been suspect, to say the least. Sure, he might be brazen and bold, but don't let the personality get in the way of what he's done so far, and what he would have the village do. He says that he feels I bussed Nog's lynch, well...

Shasta, bussed Bom's lynched. Wanted to bus Inzil (who he "suspected" as the acolyte, when there was little reason to feel the acolyte was an immediate threat) along with the known wolf Nog. And he continued to push for the acolyte's lynch yesterday, until getting frustrated by all the suspicion and leaving. Remove the personality from the equation, because it's not like you can't be brazen and a wolf . Look at the intentions and the results.

So, are you suggesting we just drop and let Shasta off the hook?

Boro - of course I was looking through narrow-minded glasses! All that post was based on how people interacted with Nogrod, that was the poiny. If not, I would have found Pitchie, Lottie and Shasta all more suspicious. You can't discount anyone (except Zil ) at this point of the game. And yes, I'm suggesting to let Shasta (and Pitchwife) off the hook toDay (not infinitely) because their interaction with Nog make them less likely wolves and we need to catch one toDay. Even if I was wrong and Shasta was a wolf, there's still two of them out there.


edit: xed with Zil and Pitch

[Pitchwife]

Lommy, sinceyou quote Pom quoting that post from you about G55 from Day 1, let me ask you: did you never write an analysis or something during the Night phase in order to post it on the next Day, not knowing whether you'd be alive to do so?

I'm asking because this point you made against G55 (that she couldn't be sure she'd be alive unless she was a wolf etc.) seemed horribly constructed to me at the time, but it got buried under other matters and I forgot to comment on it.