TIG XCIV– WHere the Stars Are Strange (Game thread)

[Thinlómien]

Ok, since assumedly Eönwë is no more, we have:

Boromir88 –Wealthy mûmak breeder.
Sally –Messenger girl.
Shasta –Particularly attentive guard-lieutenant.
Pomegranate –Entertainer.
A Little Green –The Empress's favourite snake-charmer.
Pitchwife –Captain in the "Provisional Royal Númenórean Navy" and emissary of Angamaitë IX, Lord of Umbar.
Lottie –Accident-prone sorcerer's apprentice.
Inziladun –Minister of the Treasury.
Lommy! –Court physician.

Out of which Zil and four others are ordos, three are wolves and one is the acolyte. Since the acolyte doesn't count in the tally, this means that if we lynch an innocent toDay and another (presumably Zil) dies during the Night, it's three ordos, three wolves and the acolyte toMorrow, which means the wolves win, unless the acolyte has some superpowers and is willing to use them from the village benefit, but let's not assume that.

So we basically have to lynch a wolf toDay. This means we should think at least twice before we vote toDay.

I'm going to finish my analysis from yesterDay now.

Also I just looked at the vote tally and only our known innocents (Steve, Zil and Legate) voted Shasta, everybody else voted Legate. It would be tempting to conclude Shasta's guilt from this, but we can afford knee-jerk thinking toDay.

[Pomegranate]

Agh. And I felt so smart suspecting the same person three days in a row, just to find out that despite everything I thought had to mean he was a wolf, he wasn't. Now it's my turn to need a full reevaluation of everything.

And I was going to bring about the same point as Lommy. We can't afford to lose an innocent today. At least not alone - a double lynch with a wolf and an innocent would still keep us alive. Hence today, if it was considerately done, I would suggest to think about a double lynch. Counting numbers:

Lommy already mentioned what happens if we lynch an innocent today. We're dead.
If we lynch a wolf today, and they kill an innocent at night, we end up with 4-2 (+1) tomorrow. That's pretty much the same situation as today.
If we lynch the acolyte today, it's 4-3 tomorrow, which means we have our chances, but they are not big.

Whereas:

If we lynch two innocents today, we're dead, surprisingly.
If we lynch an innocent and a wolf, it's 3-2 (+1) tomorrow, which is bad, but not as bad as lynching only an innocent.
If we lynch two wolves today, we might be able to breath again.
If we lynch the acolyte and an innocent, we're done for.
If we lynch the acolyte and a wolf, it's 4-2 and the unknown powers of this game are gone.

This obviously again depends on the acolyte, their alignment etc. But let's not discuss that all the time today.

I'll need to think and evaluate a lot before I have an opinion, an idea of this game again. I'll be doing that now (as well as writing an essay).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Agh. And I felt so smart suspecting the same person three days in a row, just to find out that despite everything I thought had to mean he was a wolf, he wasn't. Now it's my turn to need a full reevaluation of everything.

And I was going to bring about the same point as Lommy. We can't afford to lose an innocent today. At least not alone - a double lynch with a wolf and an innocent would still keep us alive. Hence today, if it was considerately done, I would suggest to think about a double lynch. Counting numbers:

Lommy already mentioned what happens if we lynch an innocent today. We're dead.
If we lynch a wolf today, and they kill an innocent at night, we end up with 4-2 (+1) tomorrow. That's pretty much the same situation as today.
If we lynch the acolyte today, it's 4-3 tomorrow, which means we have our chances, but they are not big.

Whereas:

If we lynch two innocents today, we're dead, surprisingly.
If we lynch an innocent and a wolf, it's 3-2 (+1) tomorrow, which is bad, but not as bad as lynching only an innocent.
If we lynch two wolves today, we might be able to breath again.
If we lynch the acolyte and an innocent, we're done for.
If we lynch the acolyte and a wolf, it's 4-2 and the unknown powers of this game are gone.

This obviously again depends on the acolyte, their alignment etc. But let's not discuss that all the time today.

I'll need to think and evaluate a lot before I have an opinion, an idea of this game again. I'll be doing that now (as well as writing an essay).

Before I delve too far into analyses and such, I want to comment on this.

Now watch out, Shasta's speculating about the Acolyte again! Lynch him!

The narration of the Night, to me, certainly makes it seem like the Acolyte joined the side of the village last night. I think what happened is, either the Acolyte targeted Eonwe for something, Eonwe dreamt of the Acolyte, or both (this is the one I'm leaning toward - in the narration, the Envoy says he dreamt of the Acolyte, and the narration also has the Acolyte coming to the Envoy's door) and some combination of these events led to the Acolyte becoming innocent (given the whole teaching session, perhaps Eonwe managed to pass on his Seer powers?)

Now, granted, Nerwen was clear that the Acolyte doesn't count for either side in the tally. But what if they aren't the Acolyte anymore? If they did become innocent (big if, but I think, possible), the tally becomes 3-6... and suddenly a double-lynch becomes the only way the wolves can win toMorrow. This makes me raise my eyebrows at Pom a bit, because she basically came out of the gate toDay with some support for a double-lynch toDay.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Now watch out, Shasta's speculating about the Acolyte again!

And jumping to conclusions in the opposite direction this time.

Judging from the narration, and no unexplained kills happening for the last two Nights, it is of course clear now that the Acolyte is no threat, and the narration indeed makes it likely that Eönwë's seer power was transferred to xem - which is great, if xe decides to use it for our benefit.

So far so good. But automatically assuming that xe will not only side with the village but also count as an innocent from now on, contrary to everything stated in the rules, is just as bold an assumption as that the Acolyte is a classical Werebear and has to be Zil - and it could be desastrous to overestimate our numbers toDay.

You have, however, a point that Pom's willingness to contemplate double-lynches at this stage of the game is rather alarming. Not sure though whether it's noobishness or sinister purpose.

Originally Posted by Zil

With three wolves left, some bold wolf-on-wolf can't be discounted totally when considering Nog's mates. Especially ones that talked a good game about him being suspicious, but never followed up on it.

I'd like you to explain in which way I should have 'followed it up' and didn't. My suspicion of Nogrod originated in his part in starting the Bomwagon; I became doubtful of his guilt because my prime suspect from Day 1, Eönwë,attacked him in a manner which raised more than a few eyebrows, until the question which of them was guilty was resolved when Eönwë revealed himself as the seer and Nog as a wolf. How I reacted to that is on record, and I'm honestly puzzled what more you would have wanted me to do.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Pom

I actually though this was a good point at the moment, but now it feels like it has a bad vibe in it, for I am sure the wolves have discussed the acolyte and the possibility of xem having dreams and such.

We all discussed it on Day 1. Go back and read the thread.

And believe me or not, I was just about to post on the subject when I saw your post asking me about it.

Sally, I'm curious.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I'd like you to explain in which way I should have 'followed it up' and didn't. My suspicion of Nogrod originated in his part in starting the Bomwagon; I became doubtful of his guilt because my prime suspect from Day 1, Eönwë,attacked him in a manner which raised more than a few eyebrows, until the question which of them was guilty was resolved when Eönwë revealed himself as the seer and Nog as a wolf. How I reacted to that is on record, and I'm honestly puzzled what more you would have wanted me to do.

I didn't point at you, or anyone in particular. But your reaction to my open statement is noted.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I didn't point at you, or anyone in particular. But your reaction to my open statement is noted.

The post I quoted from was your reply to a post of Lommy's where she talked about me and Shasta, so I don't think it was unreasonable to assume that you did as well.

[Thinlómien]

So, how did everybody treat Nog on Day2? For Day1, please see this post.

Lommy defends Nog’s change of heart concerning Gal (#165). Lists Nog under “innocentish” and says she has good gut-feeling about Nog and trusts him for the time being (#204). [Editor's note: after reading the posts she xed with] amends that Nog looks a little worse (#206). Believes the revelation and votes Nog (#273).

Legate [my analysis was almost done in the end of yesterDay, so he was included all along, and I will leave this here in case it's of scientific interest to anyone] slightly defends Nog’s Legate-180 on Gal (#166, a cross-post with Lommy’s #165). Then he defends/explains Nog’s anger ventilation to Pom (#178). The discussion continues (#182). Then he discusses Rikae with him (#190). Makes fun of him and tells him to read his (Legate’s) post (#191). Attacks Eönwë for a suspicious attack on Nog (#194). Lists Nog under “grey” (his second most innocent category) and says a lot about him seems innocentish but there have also been good points against him lately (#213). As has been discussed, doesn’t believe Steve’s reveal (#236). Continues this (#239). Then, more or less makes a Legate-180 (#248). Ponders about lynching Zil in Nog's stead or making a double lynch, but concludes single lynch is much better (#275). Votes him not to split the votes (#276). Agrees with Pitch's arguments for Steve and against Nog (#276).

Pom points out Nog’s major role in the Bom-lynch but doesn’t conclude much from it (#167). She further discusses Bom-wagon, mentioning Nog several times (#172). She defends to Nog why emphasising his role in the Bom-lynch made sense (#173). Argues with Legate about Nog’s innocence/sensibility (#180). Thinks he answered her suspicions pretty well (#231). She leaves before Eönwë's reveal.

Pitch criticises the Bom-lynch and directs the criticism towards Nog (#168). He answers his criticism (#175). Rants a little more about the Bom-lynch, says Steve’s attack on Nog makes him look better despite his (Pitch’s) earlier suspicions on him (Nog) and discusses Rikae’s death with Nog (#211). A rather aggressive point against him (#214). Again, discusses Rikae with him (#224). After the reveal, he trusts Steve (and shortly tells why) and votes Nog (#277).

Boro discusses Rikae’s death with Nog, and defends himself (#177). He defends Eönwë’s attack on Nog and discusses Nog’s actions in the Bom-wagon without labelling them as anything else than “overkill”, as opposed to “suspicious” or “innocentish”, but says he seems to be treading carefully which implies suspicion (#203). He crosses with the seer reveal while saying: Nog was careful yesterDay but maybe an inncent Nog would have a reason to do that too, says he wanted to refrain from commenting (and encourage others to do so too) Eönwë's attack on Nog before Nog himself reacts, he has conflicting opinions about Nog himself (sometimes he sounds genuine, sometimes he sounds really bad) and is not sure whether everything thus far is enough for him to vote him as he recalls innocent Nog often being paranoid too (#254). He is amused by Nog's desperation and faulty facts and votes him (#267).

Lottie trusts Steve's reveal and votes Nog (#256).

Sally is catching up: she finds Nog willingness to help Bom's suicide alarming and after reading until the end of page five, she lists Nog in her guilty category which covers half of the village (#265). Votes Nog but mentions the possibilty Steve is lying (#266).

Shasta trusts Steve and believes in Nog's guilt, but believes we should lynch Zil the assumed acolyte (#268).

Greenie says that regardless of Nog's starting it, Shasta was the one behind the Bom-lynch (#184). She acknowledges and adds points against Nog but says she has a good gut-feeling about him (#187). She doesn't like Eönwë's jump on Nog and agrees with Legate's points about it (#195) then votes Eönwë (#196). She leaves before Eönwë's reveal.

Conclusions to follow.

[Thinlómien]

Using Legate's analysis about Nogrod's comments about everybody (#366), and my analyses (#398, #437) about others' comments about him (and omitting myself of course):


Unlikely packmates

Pitch - when he criticises the Bom-lynch, his main target is very clearly Nogrod, not Shasta, Legate, Eönwë or me. In a few other occassions, he is rather aggressive towards him. I'm not sure of this new, more aggressive style of Pitch's, but I can't see him coming up with it as a wolf and applying it mostly wolf-on-wolf, it is potentially dangerous to the pack and puts him rather in the spotlight.

Shasta - his rather loud attack on Nogrod on Day1 doesn't reveal much, neither does the subsequent interaction, but: why the heck would a wolf-Shasta tainted himself by the association by suggesting lynching Zil the supposed acolyte instead of Nog the wolf? Surely that would have been too brazen?

These two are not exonerated by this, but I think it makes them look better enough that we should let them be for toDay which is the critical Day.


Possible packmates

Lottie - Nog attacked him on Day1, which would make her look more innocent than not. (Would a wolf-Nog bus fellow Lottie who is always suspected on Day1? That would be a bit too mean, taking into account that Lottie is someone who plays "properly" by Nog's standards.) Otherwise not much to conclude from: slight suspicion/ neutrality towards each other, Lottie believed Steve's revelation immediately like most of the people.


Likely packmates

Boro - on Day1, he talks uncharacteristically little about Nogrod, almost seems to avoid him. Nog suspects him, but doesn't seem to seriously consider voting him. On Day2 they argue, Boro defends Steve for attacking Nog but is himself very conflicted about Nog's role until Steve's reveal, when he turns almost malicious. To me, this seems like the exact way Borowolf would act with fellow Nog and wanting to keep all possibilities open about a packmate... Then again, Nogrod was pretty contradictory on the Day he died.

Pom - Nogrod is pretty nice to her in a way I can't really make sense of, maybe more like wolf to innocent. Then again, what she says about him is rather fishy: a few times she raises some point point about him, discusses it and concludes nothing. She suspects him but concludes he answered her suspicions pretty well. Makes her a more likely packmate of Nog's than many others.

Greenie - Nogrod suspects her a little, she scarcely mentions him, then in a list she says she has mixed feelings about him and votes Eönwë who attacked him. Hmm... looks almost too obvious wolf-on-wolf.

Sally - they mention each other so little it would be a perfect wolf-on-wolf tactic. Sally's suspicion of him is so "mainstream" we can hardly conclude anything from it.


Hmm... so if I had to bet, I would guess a Nog-Boro-Pom-Sally pack, but substituting any of them (except for Nog of course ) with Greenie or even Lottie is of course possible. (Pitch, Shasta and Lottie, if you are the remaining wolves, feel free to laugh at me. )

In any case I will still do a lot of rethinking and rereading toDay, because we cannot make any conclusions too fast toDay (so I reserve the right to change my opinion, thank you!)

[Thinlómien]

Now going but just saying: if someone is unwilling to discuss their suspicions and trusts toDay, we have all the reasons in the world to believe they are wolves who don't want to reveal their pack. No innocent has a need to hide their loyalties. That said, au revoir, I will be back in the European evening!

edit: xed with Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Pitch - when he criticises the Bom-lynch, his main target is very clearly Nogrod, not Shasta, Legate, Eönwë or me. In a few other occassions, he is rather aggressive towards him. I'm not sure of this new, more aggressive style of Pitch's, but I can't see him coming up with it as a wolf and applying it mostly wolf-on-wolf, it is potentially dangerous to the pack and puts him rather in the spotlight.

Shasta - his rather loud attack on Nogrod on Day1 doesn't reveal much, neither does the subsequent interaction, but: why the heck would a wolf-Shasta tainted himself by the association by suggesting lynching Zil the supposed acolyte instead of Nog the wolf? Surely that would have been too brazen?

These two are not exonerated by this, but I think it makes them look better enough that we should let them be for toDay which is the critical Day.

With three wolves left, some bold wolf-on-wolf can't be discounted totally when considering Nog's mates. Especially ones that talked a good game about him being suspicious, but never followed up on it.

As for Shasta, one has to wonder why an innocent he would not have seen that so closely following Nog would have put him in a bad light.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Shasta - his rather loud attack on Nogrod on Day1 doesn't reveal much, neither does the subsequent interaction, but: why the heck would a wolf-Shasta tainted himself by the association by suggesting lynching Zil the supposed acolyte instead of Nog the wolf? Surely that would have been too brazen?

I understand not wanting to focus on Shasta today, and I don't plan to, I just wanted to comment on this. Because Shasta is my top suspect, and I can't see how what happened yesterday effects what I should think about Shasta.

Also, Lommy, you're looking at Shasta through very narrow-minded glasses. You're looking at him based on interactions with Nogrod, and not at the whole picture. Shasta's actions through the entire game have been suspect, to say the least. Sure, he might be brazen and bold, but don't let the personality get in the way of what he's done so far, and what he would have the village do. He says that he feels I bussed Nog's lynch, well...

Shasta, bussed Bom's lynched. Wanted to bus Inzil (who he "suspected" as the acolyte, when there was little reason to feel the acolyte was an immediate threat) along with the known wolf Nog. And he continued to push for the acolyte's lynch yesterday, until getting frustrated by all the suspicion and leaving. Remove the personality from the equation, because it's not like you can't be brazen and a wolf . Look at the intentions and the results.

So, are you suggesting we just drop and let Shasta off the hook?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I understand not wanting to focus on Shasta today, and I don't plan to, I just wanted to comment on this. Because Shasta is my top suspect, and I can't see how what happened yesterday effects what I should think about Shasta.

Also, Lommy, you're looking at Shasta through very narrow-minded glasses. You're looking at him based on interactions with Nogrod, and not at the whole picture. Shasta's actions through the entire game have been suspect, to say the least. Sure, he might be brazen and bold, but don't let the personality get in the way of what he's done so far, and what he would have the village do. He says that he feels I bussed Nog's lynch, well...

Shasta, bussed Bom's lynched. Wanted to bus Inzil (who he "suspected" as the acolyte, when there was little reason to feel the acolyte was an immediate threat) along with the known wolf Nog. And he continued to push for the acolyte's lynch yesterday, until getting frustrated by all the suspicion and leaving. Remove the personality from the equation, because it's not like you can't be brazen and a wolf . Look at the intentions and the results.

So, are you suggesting we just drop and let Shasta off the hook?

(underlining mine)

I will say this one time today. After that, if anyone brings it up yet again, I am going to flatly ignore you.

I thought the Acolyte was a werebear after the Eruhen kill and acted as I did to lessen the number of kills that I foresaw happening at night.

There. Done.

That said, Boro, think before you speak. Learn the definition of "bussing" before scrambling to use that, of all things, as a point against me, because neither Bom nor Inzil were/are wolves.

I'll post actual content after I take a shower.

[Inziladun]

I have to wonder about something, Boro.

You spent pretty much all of yesterDay going back and forth with Shasta, and he certainly seemed to be your main suspect.

Toward the end of the Day, you started saying you were confortable with lynching either Shasta or Legate. Why, when your focus had clearly been on Shasta, did you vote for Legate?

x/d with Shasta

[satansaloser2005]

I have a horrible idea that just might work. Is anyone interested?


Or, as they say in Limerick....

I do believe I have a plan
That might meet the ordos' demands
But I rather fear
That no one will hear
Could I get a show of your hands?



(I have a point to make against Lommie later, but I'll have to wait until I can get home and find the post, alas. I won't be home until almost midDay, but I didn't want to let this go.)

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I have to wonder about something, Boro.

You spent pretty much all of yesterDay going back and forth with Shasta, and he certainly seemed to be your main suspect.

Toward the end of the Day, you started saying you were confortable with lynching either Shasta or Legate. Why, when your focus had clearly been on Shasta, did you vote for Legate?

I didn't say much about Legate until later, but that's just because I was agreeing with the points against him, and didn't want to re-hash what pretty much everyone else was saying. Other than me thinking, "are we sure there's no cobbler in this village? Because, it's looking like Legate." Legate was getting suspected enough, and I didn't see the point to just add on by re-stating the same points against him.

Shasta, at least at the beginning of the day, I didn't think was getting suspected enough. So, I started pushing, and it may look hypocritical since I've beat on the same points against him (unlike what I didn't want to do to Legate), but I didn't think he was getting enough suspicion until he got too frustrated and left.

But at the end of the day, I had enough of both of them, and couldn't care less which one was lynched, since it wouldn't effect my suspicions at the start of the day. Had Legate been a wolf, I still would have Shasta as a top suspect. Had Shasta been lynched, whether wolf or innocent, I would have had Legate my top suspect today. And my first post today was just to say "wait a sec, are we seriously just going to drop suspicion against Shasta now?"

It's the same plan I have today. That is, I've said all I can say on Shasta. We're going to go in this circle of "I don't believe you," and just re-hashing all the same argument. I'm pretty much tired of that (as I'm sure Shasta is too ), but I'll say now, just because I'm going to turn/start paying more attention to others doesn't mean I've suddenly dropped Shasta as my primary suspect. It just means I will agree with him about this:

Originally Posted by Shasta

I will say this one time today. After that, if anyone brings it up yet again, I am going to flatly ignore you.

But I don't like the look of this:

That said, Boro, think before you speak. Learn the definition of "bussing" before scrambling to use that, of all things, as a point against me, because neither Bom nor Inzil were/are wolves.

It's these types of comments that just don't sit well with me, a squawk over a word/definition. I took "bussing" as "pushing/driving" a lynch of someone. Oh, so it means what a wolf driving the lynch of another wolf? My bad, I'll use "pushing" from now on...but just that tit-for-tat debate over definitions of words we're using is not a way to convince me you're innocent.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Okay, fine, Inzil's an ordo. Fair enough. But you aren't allowed to suspect someone for thinking you were claiming something when you were acting like you were claiming something (and don't try to deny that, Inzil, it's all over your D1 actions.)

I will deny it. It was never in my mind to play at being the Acolyte.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You really think, if I was a wolf, I had a shot at saving the Seer-dreamt Nogrod yesterday after he already had five votes against him? You vastly overestimate my skills, I'm afraid. Or you think I'm an idiot. Either or.

If you yourself didn't think your vote would be effective, why do what you did? Clearly you had a hope of, if not saving Nog, at least taking someone with him, someone you had no way of knowing was evil.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Also I just looked at the vote tally and only our known innocents (Steve, Zil and Legate) voted Shasta, everybody else voted Legate. It would be tempting to conclude Shasta's guilt from this, but we can afford knee-jerk thinking toDay.

I agree that Shasta should not be the focus of toDay.

That said, it should be remembered that, in addition to what I said yesterDay, he:

A. Was the spearhead for the Bom lynch Day 1.
B. Tried to bring another lynch for consideration over, or in conjunction with, a Seer-dreamt wolf Day 2.
C. Was following the lead of said wolf both times.

Originally Posted by Pomegranate

Agh. And I felt so smart suspecting the same person three days in a row, just to find out that despite everything I thought had to mean he was a wolf, he wasn't. Now it's my turn to need a full reevaluation of everything.

For some reason this doesn't sit well with me. It feels like the standard "Gosh darn it, I went and killed a good guy!" that wolves are so fond of.