Meeting at the Town Cobbler (WW XCV game thread)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

See what I mean? You first point out a suspicious bit of behaviour and only later think of a reason why it's suspicious.

I see and I don't...

First I only noted that you said a wilwawolf wouldn't have pointed out the scenario with the seer - which is both odd and plainly false - and that it leads you to trust her (well, that she looks good because of that). Now that was looking dubious as itself. But then I also remembered that you tend to be one of those who scorns others for discussing the gifteds and what they should do and now you seemed like perfectly happy with the speculation by wilwa. That made it more suspicious.

But to be honest that was not much and - like I said - it bothered me as to why you acted like that.

And it was only later I was able to "connect the dots" when I realised there might be a connection between the wolves not knowing each other and them needing to signal each other - and that your behaviour does fit in.


So yes I suspected you earlier with less and later with more reasons.

And then - in the quote you made originally - said that a lot of my suspicions will depend on what the rules actually were.


Talking of which...

Originally Posted by Sally

Wouldn't you like to know?

The wolves lost one of their number already on the first hour - so should I interpret your reluctance to tell it as not willing to give up that information because it might hurt them even more? Or are you just teasing us... which knowing you would be quite believable as well.

Originally Posted by Zil

Actually, in the event that the committee did not know one another until the end of the first Hour, not voting would have been the smart way for them to go. That would explain why Wilwa said she was on board with no one dying.

Well, that's what I've been trying to say - and why learning the way it was would help us.

Although I am interested more in the reactions of the still living rather than explaining why wilwawolf said what she said (which kind of looks self-evident from that POV).

It is not any straightforward thing to be sure, I was myself almost bending to the side of thinking let's not lynch anyone - before I realised that it was possible the wolves might love it, and I wasn't willing to give them a free pass in that case.

But all that aka. what we can say on these issues depends on whether Sally is willing to tell us or not.


Okay. I'm back to read yet one smallish pile of papers for today and hopefully able to stick around for a short while before going to sleep. I hope to see some discussion when I come back.

[Nogrod]

Inzil is actually the person to suggest it already 4 hours before the DL by saying: “Then again, we could vote no one and not have a death toDay”. Wilwa agrees on that.

After that Inzil brings the idea forth again in #33 (not clearly committing to any solution though). I entertain the idea in #35. Rikae slightly disagrees with it in #36. Eönwë goes to and fro with it and ends up more like saying yes than no in #37.

With Eönwë’s comments it’s about half an hour to the DL.

Originally Posted by Inzil #39

Not voting squanders our chance of getting a committee member, so it isn't my desire. However, we certainly have even less this Day 1 to consider than usual.

Now this bothers me somewhat. “So it isn’t my desire”? Why on earth to say something like that? And he actually continues in the same post quoting my voiced suspicion on Greenie and admittal that my reasoning is pretty thin with this:

I don't know. That's the problem. I might could go for one of the submarines out of desperation.

So let’s not lynch anyone or let’s lynch someone who has not been around? It tends to be quite rare the wolves do not play (it is possible but rare) so how come this suggestion at this moment? It is a village of only ten…

Mac continues by saying that the lynch will be virtually random (in #40). In #43 he speculates how hard it would be to arrange a tie.

I go for a try to get a lynch done in #44 (vote Greenie, 6 minutes to the DL).

Rikae says (in #51): "This bugs me. I mean, I can see wanting to prolong a game that may be short, but, as I see it, skipping toDay's lynch is actually to the baddies' advantage".

Mac says “Let’s tie it” (votes wilwa, 2 minutes before the DL).

Eönwë says he will abstain from voting at .00 hours (in #54).

Inzil says “all right” (votes wilwa, at .00 hour), because he trusts Mac to be more innocent than me in #55.

Eönwë wants to tie as well (votes Lottie, at .00) in #56.!!!

Rikae says she is not on board with the non-lynching / tie at .01, her top suspects are voted for as well (in #58). She realises she had missed the DL already (in #59).

~*~

Votes:
Nog -> Greenie
Mac -> Wilwa
Inzil -> Wilwa 2
Eönwë -> Lottie

No one else voted.


~*~


So what do we learn?

I still think a lot depends on the fact whether the wolves knew each others' identities or not. But as long as we don't have that knowledge we have to stick to other sources of speculation.

Now Inzil looks pretty suspicious to me. He started the speculation in good time and it feels like he first just notched it forwards carefully. Also his willing to lynch a submarine instead of no lynch in as small village as ten looks suspicious.

If the wolves did not know each others' identities on Hour1, I would actually be willing to bet (well just a little) on Zil & Greenie being our remaining "committee members". If they did know each other though, then I really need to re-consider as then it looks far less likely, especially Zil's vote would look far better then (well, depending also whether it was a cross post or not).

Continuing the speculation... Eönwe's behaviour in the end was kind of interesting as well. First he announces he will abstain from voting, then he tries a tie. Why? Wishing to save wilwa or Greenie then (knowing his mate was in trouble)? He probably didn't know about Zil's second vote for wilwa as it is posted at the same minute.

McCaber? Why didn't he vote? He was right there before and after the DL! I'm looking forwards to hear some explanations to that. Also how come Rikae missed the DL as well? Well, she at least cursed it. McCaber I didn't see even commenting on that...


I'll add the boldings to the beginning later as I'm willing to post this before the DL (and need to have a cigarette next).