Meeting at the Town Cobbler (WW XCV game thread)

[Eönwë]

Anyway, it's later here than I was expecting- I hope you all judge well while I'm gone.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Well, it seems to have been a while since the last post, and since there's no real reason to disbelieve Rikae, I guess that means I just have to look at Mac and Eonwe. Easy enough.

[Rikae]

Well, I really would like to hear a bit more from Shasta, Mac and Steve (gone for the hour?) - don't any of you have anything to say that might influence our decision?
I know I've made it sound as though we had already won, but according to my calculations the wrong choice now will mean that two hours from now Lottie will have a 50% chance of voting wrongly losing the game. As interesting as such an hour might be, I'd rather vote as well as possible now, which means I'd rather hear more from the three gentlemen mentioned above...

[Eönwë]

Firstly, since everyone's posted and no-one's refuted her claim, I'm willing to believe that Rikae is actually our seer, since at this point in the game it would be foolish not to counter-reveal.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I know I've made it sound as though we had already won, but according to my calculations the wrong choice now will mean that two hours from now Lottie will have a 50% chance of voting wrongly losing the game.

So now you're giving away her role? That's just added a whole new level of complication (more clarity, but it's changed the game).

I'll let my subconscious mull over it while I look at Mac.

[Rikae]

Nope, I was wrong, there's another possible outcome.

Still, if we lynch a gifted today we've squandered our advantage,

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Yes, I am the sole innocent left here.

Is that your final answer?

[Eönwë]

Ok, I had to go, but I'm back and have almost finished a Mac-post.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Is that your final answer?

Yes. If you think it's less risky to kill me, go ahead. At least then you'll have all the gifteds.

[Eönwë]

On which, note, I'd like to point out that Mac tried to inadvertently claim that role too (see here), which is one reason that I really suspect him (more on this in my next post).

[Eönwë]

Since Shasta's posted so little, there's absolutely no way to tell whether or not he's a wolf. I'll ignore my meta-reasoning sense, which would suggest that he wouldn't accept such a hollow victory anway, and instead focus on Mac, which at least can be done (though his post count isn't very, at least he's said something).

Good stuff

This post seems pretty reasonable:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It seems like people think of the messages mostly as a means to convey something to somebody else. Don't forget that your message prompts somebody to write a message back. If you send something to somebody you're not sure about, that's a good way to learn (even if they don't reply).

I don't think the information offered in a message is worth much. A reveal might be fake, and any opinions given are probably already available in the thread anyway, or have to be taken with a bucketful of salt. Like Greenie mentioned, as a wolf, I would be nervous to write a message: the risk of giving something away (even if it's just a bad vibe) is not necessarily worth the opportunity to sow some deceit.

And this:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I know it's not in the intended spirit of this game, but I would advise against too much analysis etc. during the night phase. It really only helps the wolves to sort out their own kill if they know who the inn thinks is innocent and who not. Usually they have some guesswork to do regarding the village's upcoming reaction to the lynch, which complicates their kill decision.

Of course, they're both points that aren't completely radical, so there is a large probability that someone else would come up with them, yet he definitely posts them firsts. Either this is proof of his innocence or he's going for the "I'll bring up useful points so they trust me." Still, some parts seem a bit too good to be intended evilly, but I suppose that it just depends on how sneaky a Macwolf is.


Other stuff

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Nog: I can't find a reason to suspect him, which makes me suspicious.
Wilwa - re-reading her posts, I think the vibe I'm getting is that of someone who's a wolf and tries rather hard to find something to talk about, so that she won't be suspected for not contributing. (Not exactly the best reason, is it?)

He's basically saying that there's no good reason to suspect either of the two known wolves, yet still says he suspects them. I don't know whether that's too obvious, but that whole suspecting-yet-defending attitude seems pretty wolvish to me.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If Wilwa is innocent then clearly Mac and Inzil conspired to save their packmate Greenie.

Something about this joking comment doesn't sit right with me. It's almost as if he's specifically trying to show us that he doesn't know. Or, it could just be completely innocent. The second "not rusty" comment just furthers that.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'm suspecting Inzil quite a bit right now. His vote looks incredibly fishy to me.

Could go either way.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

My first impression of the McCaber-kill was that it made sense. Inzil and I look most innocent after the voting yesterHour(???) and were thus likely ranger picks. Unless they thought I was the seer (obviously not the case), it was not worth going after either of us. McCaber looked pretty innocent (I thought), so he was a good no-trace kill, since the only solid thing he leaves is some early strategy discussion and him thinking Inzil and me are innocent. He did also say that he liked Greenie least among the one-posters.

I'm trying hard not to look at this one biasedly, but I couldn't help thinking of him feeding us his Night-conversation.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Analyzing the voting, I noticed that Nog was in fact only the third person to mention Greenie negatively (Rikae and McCaber did so before). If he's a wolf who knew that Wilwa might be in moderate trouble, picking up on the mild suspicions of others, elaborating on them, and placing a preventative vote, would make sense to protect his fellow. Much more innocent-looking than waiting for a Wilwa-vote and then trying to put up a competing bandwaggon on the fly.

I do like Nog's point against me. It's wrong, but I still like it. If I was a wolf and Wilwa innocent, that's definitely something I could see myself doing. However, I would have been more strongly about telling people to make the tie possible (while hoping and being optimistic that it would fail). Doing wolf-on-wolf in such a situation is an entirely needless risk, though.

So first he suggests that Nog is evil, and then says something good about him? This seems to be a pattern throughout all his posts on Nog.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

When I saw that Nogrod was lynched my first thought was "No! Why?"

If he is a wolf, this is pretty funny.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Killing Inzil was the best choice I suppose. He looked innocent, was vocal, and made sense. I don't think they thought he looked seer-ish.

Another kill-justification. Pretty neutral, considering that that I saw him as an innocent as well.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Sad thing is that Nogrod absorbed all attention yesterHour, and focused on Inzil (and lesser: me), so I don't think there's anything pointing towards the last wolf.

Very sneaky wording here. Again, suggesting his lack of wolfedness, as well as making it seem like Nog wouldn't try to pick out his fellow wolf, which is definitely something he'd do to mess with our minds.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa-connection? He started out by an assumption (if I'm a wolf), then he starts treating it like a fact.

The fact that you were the first to vote for her connects you. I don't see the problem here.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

While Eonwe lists Nogrod as most suspicious, he still seems most reluctant out of everybody to actually go after him.

Well that's completely not true. I said he was the one I was most likely to vote for and I did. I was just happy that a Nog-lynch had started while I was trying to articulate my suspicion of him.


Ok, now this thing.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I don't see a reason to doubt Rikae's claim at the moment, which means:
Rikae: seer
Lottie: not-wolf
Mac: not-wolf (hoping you believe me there)
Shasta or Eonwe: wolf
Also, two out of Lottie, Shasta, and Eonwe are gifted.
If Shasta or Eonwe is the hunter, he should pick the other one to kill.
If one of them is the ranger and we lynch him, then... that would not be so good.

Barring any more reveals, I'm leaning towards voting Eonwe right now. Of course, we barely heard anything from Shasta so far.

Ok, so here, while he first just says "not-wolf", later he goes on to say that the other two gifted roles (not the seer- he believes Rikae) are among the rest of us. Which basically means that he's saying he's the innocent.

Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent. We only have one Night left, and this means that the only choice the Ranger has is to protect the Seer. I mean, there will be no Day after toMorrow, so there is no need to worry. And so, since it's obvious that the Ranger will be protecting Rikae (which is basically our only chance to have a definite win toMorrow), there is no need for the Ranger to hide, since their power is then basically useless, as the wolf will almost certainly attack someone other than Rikae. And so, if the Ranger wouldn't hide, and I know that I am the innocent in the game, I'm forced to conclude that Mac is a wolf.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent.

Me neither.

[Macalaure]

I had a lengthy defense post written, but then I came to Eonwe's last points and realized something.

First:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Now, I can't see any reason why at this point in the game, the Ranger would claim to be an ordinary innocent.

A ranger save can give us two more nights:
5 players +lynch +safe=4 players next hour.
4 players +lynch +safe=3 players last hour.
Not likely, but could happen. If the ranger declares prematurely he's toast unless he gambles.
Add to this the more crucial fact that we might have a tie and therefore no lynch!

Second, all that ranger stuff makes me feel a lot better about Eonwe for a reason I don't want to tell yet. Which leads me to:

Why don't all gifteds just reveal? Since every role is left exactly one time, we will have exactly one revealed role twice (the real one and the falsely revealed wolf). With two guaranteed lynches left, we've got it. If we pool our votes well, no randomness or wolf vote can cause a tie.