WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nog

The wolves knew they could more or less nail it yesterDay so why not use the chance? There had been enough stated suspicions coming my way Kath could have easily picked up and voted with. Being forced to vote that early she could have gotten away with it...

Hmm. Had Kath been suspicious of you herself prior to that, though? I think I'll go back and check that.

Originally Posted by Nog

I was ready to vote Legate already yesterDay and (unless something unpredictable happens or unforeseen arguments come forwards) and reading through Agan's analysis hasn't exactly weakend my stance on that.

Nothing really to say about this, other than that I agree. Particularly because there wasn't a four-man-pileup of votes later in the day.

Originally Posted by Nog

Interestingly it seemes Shasta was the most active person talking against lynching Sally, especially after I "dared" the wolves suggesting we lynch Sally (#223).

It was at about that point my paranoia about Agan had started to kick in. It really took off after Sally made that post with those vague Ranger-hints. But at the very end I decided to go with my gut over last-minute worries.

Originally Posted by Nog

and Legate and Shasta voted, at the same minute (five minutes before the DL) making it 5 vs. 2 and thus basically nailing it down.

So the two nailed it, to be honest. But what does it tell us? Or does it tell anything?

What pushed it over the edge for me, combined with what I'd thought D1, was that "slip" that it was pointed out G55 made. I thought, as frustrated as she'd been all day, she'd been frustrated right into blowing her cover.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you mean at #257– well, I would say it's more that *he's* agreeing with *you*, Agan. That has been Menel all game: he mostly just repeats other people's points.

This, along with really concentrating on "influential" people and (it seems) completely discounting wolf-on-wolf as a tactic - which bothers me, because the only real pointer towards Menel's innocence seems to be the possibility that he was Inzil's first dream. It kind of seems like he's been coasting under that particular cloud for a while. I think I'll go look at him next.

Originally Posted by Menel

Nerwen, in all honesty, should be considered innocent for the same reason that Nogrod and Shasta are.

Which leaves us with Legate and Kath. Although I think only one of them's a wolf, or Kath probably wouldn't have voted for Legate so early today.

If you're only left with Legate and Kath, and think only one is a wolf... then where's the third wolf, Menel?

[Meneltarmacil]

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

As for the remaining wolf, assuming Legate is guilty, this was my logic:
Not Aganzir, she's the Ranger.
Not Kath or me, they voted for Legate.
Not Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen, as they got Sally lynched.

Obviously that would eliminate everybody, and so one of the following has to have happened:

A: Agan is lying about being the Ranger.
B: Kath or I decided to kill a fellow wolf for some reason.
C: Nogrod, Shasta, or Nerwen played wolf-on-wolf yesterday.

Since no Ranger came forward to dispute Agan's claim, we can eliminate A.

With one wolf down already, B would put the wolves in unnecessary danger. I would be inclined to point the finger at Kath if Agan and I have made a mistake and Legate turns out to be innocent, though.

C now looks like the most likely possibility. Sally would not have been lynched with only two votes, and the result of such a vote by a wolf (should Sally be lynched at some point) would lead to the wolf being trusted by the villagers. Unfortunately, the wolf cross-posted with a couple of innocents and lynched a packmate by mistake.

As for which of Nogrod, Shasta, and Nerwen is likely to be a wolf, I would not suspect Nogrod as Legate voted for him when he knew there were other strong anti-Nogrod sentiments.

So our wolf is probably Shasta or Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

Oh no. What if it's Kath and Menel! Look at his last post!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Oh no. What if it's Kath and Menel! Look at his last post!

For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

For the remaining wolves to be Kath and Menel, Legate would have to be innocent. Personally, I'm much more suspicious of Legate than I am of Kath. I suppose it could be, though.

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No, you're probably right– I just freaked, rather, when I saw that last post.

But just from his recent posting, I'd say Menel stands a pretty good chance of being the third wolf.

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

The problem I'm having with that is, what does Wolftarmacil gain by obviously discounting/trusting Kath, if Legate is a wolf?

Well, to get her trust, I suppose... it's true this isn't the greatest time to use that kind of ploy, as it would leave him fewer options for the next Day– but then whatever Menel is, I don't think his naivete about tactics is necessarily an act.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Menel

If you're claiming that I am the third wolf, why did I just vote for Legate?

Unless Kath and I are wolves together, and Legate's innocent. But if you think Legate really is innocent, why haven't his other attackers merited your suspicions?

Hold it. I never "claimed you were the third wolf", I said I was going to look at you next. And I pretty clearly stated that I do find Legate suspicious, so obviously I don't "think Legate really is innocent."

You're also completely discounting Kath, based on her vote for Legate. Given the high amounts of suspicion Legate has gathered today, I'd say wolf-on-wolf is likelier than it was yesterday - and since your "most likely possibility" is that Nog, Nerwen, or I did it yesterday, why are you completely ignoring it today?

Edit: crossed with my dear one, as I left this up while going to get a drink.

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

You're also completely discounting Kath, based on her vote for Legate. Given the high amounts of suspicion Legate has gathered today, I'd say wolf-on-wolf is likelier than it was yesterday - and since your "most likely possibility" is that Nog, Nerwen, or I did it yesterday, why are you completely ignoring it today?

Because wolf-on-wolf only works when voting for one's fellow wolf will create a favorable outcome. The wolves have already lost someone, and Legate is already under suspicion. It's one thing to vote for a fellow wolf when they're behind someone else by three votes and there are three wolves remaining. It's another situation entirely when there are only two wolves left and the village is quite likely to lynch one of your number.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Because wolf-on-wolf only works when voting for one's fellow wolf will create a favorable outcome. The wolves have already lost someone, and Legate is already under suspicion. It's one thing to vote for a fellow wolf when they're behind someone else by three votes and there are three wolves remaining. It's another situation entirely when there are only two wolves left and the village is quite likely to lynch one of your number.

...You can't be serious...

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

...You can't be serious...

...What did I do?

[Meneltarmacil]

Okay, a wolf would certainly throw its packmate under the train if there were enough votes that said beast would have died anyway, but Legate only had two votes by the time I'd posted. That's really early to abandon Legate to the noose.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Menel

...What did I do?

Do you really mean you didn't know that voting a packmate already on the way to the gallows is part of the ABC of Wolf Tactics? And if you didn't, then on what grounds is it that you suspect me or Shasta?

EDIT:X'd with Menel.